Browsing by Author "Abdu A. Adamu"

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Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2019) Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Ashkan Afshin; Emmanuela Gakidou; Stephen S. Lim; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Akilew Awoke Adane; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Gina Agarwal; Anju Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Komal Ali; Syed Mustafa Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Josep M. Antó; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Zerihun Ataro; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B. Ayuk; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Eyasu Tamru Bekru; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Gilles Bergeron; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Tone Bjørge; Brigette F. Blacker; Archie Bleyer; Rohan Borschmann; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Richard T. Burnett; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Leah E. Cahill; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kate Causey; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Kai-Lan Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Miao Li Chee; Ching-Yu Cheng; Adrienne Chew; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ken Lee Chin; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Owen R. Cooper; Josef Coresh; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; David K. Cundiff; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Sarah C. Darby; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Aniruddha Deshpande; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Gabrielle Aline Deveber; Subhojit Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Helen Derara Diro; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Natalie Ebert; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Batool Fatima; Kairsten A. Fay; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Irina Filip; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Seana Gall; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Rakesh Ghosh; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; William W. Godwin; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Morgan E. Grams; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Daniela S. Gutiérrez-Torres; Juanita A. Haagsma; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Tarig B. Higazi; Esayas Haregot Hilawe; Hans W. Hoek; Howard J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; Howard Hu; John J. Huang; Mamusha Aman Hussen; Chantal K. Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Nayu Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Maria D. Jackson; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Surya Kant; Chittaranjan Kar; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Gulfaraz Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Mohammad Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carl Lachat; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Faris Hasan Lami; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Samantha Leigh Larson; Arman Latifi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Yu Liao; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Tim C.D. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Ísis Eloah Machado; Fabiana Madotto; Hue Thi Mai; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C.O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Melvin B. Marzan; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Toni Meier; Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen; Yohannes A. Melaku; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Gert B.M. Mensink; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. 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Smith; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Ranjani Somayaji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Angela Spinelli; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Nadine Steckling; Dan J. Stein; Murray B. Stein; Goran Stevanovic; Leo Stockfelt; Mark A. Stokes; Lela Sturua; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick John Sur; Bryan L. Sykes; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Habtamu Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Belay Tessema; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Andrew Theis; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Hannah J. 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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Mohsen Naghavi; Kanyin Liane Ong; Amirali Aali; Hazim S. Ababneh; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh; Mohammadreza Abbasian; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Samar Abd ElHafeez; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Ahmed Abdelwahab; Mohammad Abdollahi; Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar; Meriem Abdoun; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Auwal Abdullahi; Mesfin Abebe; Samrawit Shawel Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; E.S. Abhilash; Hassan Abidi; Olumide Abiodun; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Meysam Abolmaali; Mohamed Abouzid; Girma Beressa Aboye; Lucas Guimaraes Abreu; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Dariush Abtahi; Samir Abu Rumeileh; Hasan Abualruz; Bilyaminu Abubakar; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Salahdein Aburuz; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Tadele Girum Adal; Abdu A. Adamu; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Giovanni Addolorato; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiola Victor Adepoju; Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji; Juliana Bunmi Adetunji; Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye; Biruk Adie Admass; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Suneth Buddhika Agampodi; Pradyumna Agasthi; Manik Aggarwal; Shahin Aghamiri; Feleke Doyore Agide; Antonella Agodi; Anurag Agrawal; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Danish Ahmad; Firdos Ahmad; Muayyad M Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Shahzaib Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed; Meqdad Saleh Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Syed Anees Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Essona Matatom Akara; Hossein Akbarialiabad; Karolina Akinosoglou; Tomi Akinyemiju; Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif; Samuel Akyirem; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan; Fares Alahdab; Samer O. Alalalmeh; Tariq A. Alalwan; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Manjurul Alam; Noore Alam; Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Sayer Al-Azzam; Almaza Albakri; Mohammed Albashtawy; Mohammad T. AlBataineh; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Khalifah A. Aldawsari; Wafa A. Aldhaleei; Robert W. Aldridge; Haileselasie Berhane Alema; Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu; Sharifullah Alemi; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Khalid F. Alhabib; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi; Abid Ali; Amjad Ali; Liaqat Ali; Mohammed Usman Ali; Rafat Ali; Shahid Ali; Syed Shujait Shujait Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Reyhaneh Alikhani; Yousef Alimohamadi; Ahmednur Adem Aliyi; Mohammad A. M. Aljasir; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Sabah Al-Marwani; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Joseph Uy Almazan; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Louay Almidani; Omar Almidani; Mahmoud A. Alomari; Basem Al-Omari; Jordi Alonso; Jaber S. Alqahtani; Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi; Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Zaid Altaany; Awais Altaf; Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Deborah Oyine Aluh; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hassan Alwafi; Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi; Hany Aly; Safwat Aly; Karem H. Alzoubi; Reza Amani; Azmeraw T. Amare; Prince M. Amegbor; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Alireza Amindarolzarbi; Sohrab Amiri; Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq; Hubert Amu; Dickson A. Amugsi; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; David B. Anderson; Pedro Prata Andrade; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Colin Angus; Abhishek Anil; Sneha Anil; Amir Anoushiravani; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Saeid Anvari; Saleha Anwar; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Razique Anwer; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Muhammad Aqeel; Juan Pablo Arab; Jalal Arabloo; Mosab Arafat; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Demelash Areda; Abdulfatai Aremu; Olatunde Aremu; Hany Ariffin; Mesay Arkew; Benedetta Armocida; Michael Benjamin Arndt; Johan Arnlov; Mahwish Arooj; Anton A. Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Ashokan Arumugam; Malke Asaad; Mohsen Asadi-Lari; Akeza Awealom Asgedom; Mona Asghariahmadabad; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Muhammad Ashraf; Armin Aslani; Thomas Astell-Burt; Mohammad Athar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu; Habtamu Wondmagegn Atlaw; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'D Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Abolfazl Avan; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Amlaku Mulat Aweke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Haleh Ayatollahi; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh; Sina Azadnajafabad; Rui M. S. Azevedo; Ahmed Y. Azzam; B.B. Darshan; Abraham Samuel Babu; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Soroush Baghdadi; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Sulaiman Bah; Saeed Bahadorikhalili; Najmeh Bahmanziari; Ruhai Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Abdulaziz T. Bako; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Madhan Balasubramanian; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Kiran Bam; MacIej Banach; Soham Bandyopadhyay; Palash Chandra Banik; Hansi Bansal; Kannu Bansal; Franca Barbic; Martina Barchitta; Mainak Bardhan; Erfan Bardideh; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Lope H. Barrero; Amadou Barrow; Sandra Barteit; Lingkan Barua; Zarrin Basharat; Azadeh Bashiri; Afisu Basiru; Pritish Baskaran; Buddha Basnyat; Quique Bassat; João Diogo Basso; Ann V. L. Basting; Sanjay Basu; Kavita Batra; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Thomas Beaney; Neeraj Bedi; Massimiliano Beghi; Emad Behboudi; Priyamadhaba Behera; Amir Hossein Behnoush; Masoud Behzadifar; Maryam Beiranvand; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Yannick Béjot; Sefealem Assefa Belay; Chalie Mulu Belete; Michelle L. Bell; Muhammad Bashir Bello; Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello; Luis Belo; Apostolos Beloukas; Rose Grace Bender; Isabela M. Bensenor; Azizullah Beran; Zombor Berezvai; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Betyna N. Berice; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Paulo J. G. Bettencourt; Kebede A. Beyene; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Dinesh Bhandari; Kayleigh Bhangdia; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Prarthna V. Bhardwaj; Ashish Bhargava; Sonu Bhaskar; Vivek Bhat; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Jasvinder Singh Bhatti; Manpreet S. Bhatti; Rajbir Bhatti; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Boris Bikbov; Jessica Devin Bishai; Catherine Bisignano; Francesca Bisulli; Atanu Biswas; Bijit Biswas; Saeid Bitaraf; Bikes Destaw Bitew; Veera R. Bitra; Tone Bjørge; Micheal Kofi Boachie; Mary Sefa Boampong; Anca Vasilica Bobirca; Virginia Bodolica; Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin; Eyob Ketema Bogale; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Somayeh Bohlouli; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Milad Bonakdar Hashemi; Aime Bonny; Kaustubh Bora; Berrak Bora Basara; Hamed Borhany; Arturo Borzutzky; Souad Bouaoud; Antoine Boustany; Christopher Boxe; Edward J. Boyko; Oliver J. Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Javier Brazo-Sayavera; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Julie Brown; Traolach Brugha; Norma B. Bulamu; Lemma N. Bulto; Danilo Buonsenso; Richard A. Burns; Reinhard Busse; Yasser Bustanji; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Daniela Calina; Luis Alberto Camera; Luciana Aparecida Campos; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Angelo Capodici; Rosario Cárdenas; Sinclair Carr; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Andrea Carugno; Cristina G. Carvalheiro; Felix Carvalho; Márcia Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Alberico L. Catapano; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Christopher R. Cederroth; Luca Cegolon; Francieli Cembranel; Muthia Cenderadewi; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Muge Cevik; Joshua Chadwick; Yaacoub Chahine; Chiranjib Chakraborty; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Raymond N. C. Chan; Rama Mohan Chandika; Eeshwar K. Chandrasekar; Chin-Kuo Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Gashaw Sisay Chanie; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Victoria Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Angela W. Chen; An-Tian Chen; Catherine S. Chen; Haowei Chen; Meng Xuan Chen; Simiao Chen; Ching-Yu Cheng; Esther T. W. Cheng; Nicolas Cherbuin; Wondimye Ashenafi Cheru; Ju-Huei Chien; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ritesh Chimoriya; Patrick R. Ching; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres; Abdulaal Chitheer; William C. S. Cho; Bryan Chong; Hitesh Chopra; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Eric Chung; Erin Chung; Eunice Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Muhammad Chutiyami; Zinhle Cindi; Iolanda Cioffi; Mareli M. Claassens; Rafael M. Claro; Kaleb Coberly; Rebecca M. Cogen; Alyssa Columbus; Haley Comfort; Joao Conde; Samuele Cortese; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Simona Costanzo; Ewerton Cousin; Rosa A. S. Couto; Richard G. Cowden; Kenneth Michael Cramer; Michael H. Criqui; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernandez; Garland T. Culbreth; Patricia Cullen; Matthew Cunningham; Maria Paula Curado; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Siyu Dai; Xiaochen Dai; Zhaoli Dai; Lachlan L. Dalli; Giovanni Damiani; Jiregna Darega Gela; Jai K. Das; Saswati Das; Subasish Das; Ana Maria Dascalu; Nihar Ranjan Dash; Mohsen Dashti; Anna Dastiridou; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Davila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Katie De Luca; Aklilu Tamire Debele; Shayom Debopadhaya; Louisa Degenhardt; Azizallah Dehghan; Lee Deitesfeld; Cristian Del Bo; Ivan Delgado-Enciso; Berecha Hundessa Demessa; Andreas K. Demetriades; Ke Deng; Xinlei Deng; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Niloofar Deravi; Nebiyu Dereje; Nikolaos Dervenis; Emina Dervišević; Don C. Des Jarlais; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Rupak Desai; Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Arkadeep Dhali; Kuldeep Dhama; Meghnath Dhimal; Sameer Dhingra; Vishal R. Dhulipala; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Michael J. Diaz; Adriana Dima; Delaney D. Ding; Huanghe Ding; Ricardo Jorge Dinis-Oliveira; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Thao Huynh Phuong Do; Camila Bruneli Do Prado; Saeid Doaei; Masoud Dodangeh; Milad Dodangeh; Sushil Dohare; Klara Georgieva Dokova; Christiane Dolecek; Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez; Wanyue Dong; Deepa Dongarwar; Mario D'Oria; Fariba Dorostkar; E. Ray Dorsey; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Rajkumar Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Robert Kokou Dowou; Tim Robert Driscoll; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Viola Dsouza; Mi Du; John Dube; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Senbagam Duraisamy; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic; Abdel Rahman E'Mar; Ejemai Eboreime; Alireza Ebrahimi; Chidiebere Peter Echieh; Hisham Atan Edinur; David Edvardsson; Kristina Edvardsson; Defi Efendi; Ferry Efendi; Diyan Ermawan Effendi; Terje Andreas Eikemo; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Iffat Elbarazi; Teshome Bekele Elema; Noha Mousaad Elemam; Frank J. Elgar; Islam Y. 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Karaye; Andre Karch; Asima Karim; Salah Eddin Karimi; Arman Karimi Behnagh; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo; Qalandar Hussein Abdulkarim Kasnazani; Hengameh Kasraei; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Molly B. Kassel; Joonas H. Kauppila; Navjot Kaur; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A. Kayode; Foad Kazemi; Sina Kazemian; Tahseen Haider Kazmi; Getu Mosisa Kebebew; Adera Debella Kebede; Fassikaw Kebede; Tibebeselassie S. Keflie; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Jaimon Terence Kelly; John H. Kempen; Jessica A. Kerr; Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot; Himanshu Khajuria; Amirmohammad Khalaji; Nauman Khalid; Anees Ahmed Khalil; Alireza Khalilian; Faham Khamesipour; Ajmal Khan; Asaduzzaman Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Ikramullah Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Mohammad Jobair Khan; Moien Ab Khan; Zeeshan Ali Khan; Mahammed Ziauddin Khan Suheb; Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi
Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohammad Abbasi; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Aidin Abedi; Parisa Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Victor Aboyans; Elissa M. Abrams; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Alyssa Acebedo; Ilana N. Ackerman; Maryam Adabi; Tim Adair; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie D. Adelson; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Emilie E. Agardh; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Kareha M. Agesa; Mohammad Aghaali; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Budi Aji; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Samuel B. Albertson; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M. Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Arwa Khalid Alumran; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. 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Asadi-Pooya; Samaneh Asgari; Babak Asghari; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Charlie Ashbaugh; Michael Assmus; Zahra Atafar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur Avokpaho; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Getie Lake Aynalem; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Gulrez Azhar; Peter S. Azzopardi; B.B. Darshan; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Eleni Bagli; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Arun Balachandran; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Shivanthi Balalla; Shelly Balassyano; Alberto Baldasseroni; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Daniela Balzi; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Marlena S. Bannick; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Simachew Animen Bante; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Lingkan Barua; Akbar Barzegar; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Jacob S. Becker; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Rose G. Bender; Derrick A. Bennett; Fiona B. Bennitt; Isabela M. Bensenor; Catherine P. Benziger; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Neeraj Bhala; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Molly H. 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Ehrlich; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Jessica Fanzo; Tamer Farag; Mohammad Farahmand; Anwar Faraj; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Mithila Faruque; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Pietro Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. 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Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Maryam Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Rakesh Ghosh; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Themba G. Ginindza; Mojgan Gitimoghaddam; Giorgia Giussani; Mustefa Glagn; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Emily Goren; Giuseppe Gorini; Taren M. Gorman; Harrison Chase Gottlich; Houman Goudarzi; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Nachiket Gudi; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Teklemariam Gultie; Gaorui Guo; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Subodh Sharan Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Beatrix Haddock; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Hailey Hagins; Lydia M. Haile; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Erin B. Hamilton; Melanie S. Hammer; Chieh Han; Hannah Han; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; James D. Harvey; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Maryam Hashemian; Abdiwahab Hashi; Amr Hassan; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Kiana Henny; Andualem Henok; Hannah J. Henrikson; Nathaniel J. Henry; Molly E. Herbert; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Thomas R. Hird; Hung Chak Ho; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Bruce Hollingsworth; Praveen Hoogar; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Kejia Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Fernando N. Hugo; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Chantal K. Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Vincent C. Iannucci; Ivo Iavicoli; Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Helen Ippolito; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M. Mofizul Islam; Md. Mohaimenul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Hussain Jafari; Morteza Jafarinia; Deepa Jahagirdar; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Farzad Jalilian; Spencer L. James; Hosna Janjani; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Javad Javidnia; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Peng Jia; Lars Johansson; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Catherine Owens Johnson; Sarah Charlotte Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Ankur Joshi; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Hamed Kalani; Rizwan Kalani; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M. Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Salah Eddin Karimi; Seyed Asaad Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Suzanne H. Keddie; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Laura Kemmer; Parkes J. Kendrick; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Salman Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Mohammad Taghi Khodayari; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Roba Khundkar; Neda Kianipour; Christian Kieling; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Cameron J. Kneib; Luke D. Knibbs; Megan Knight; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; David S.Q. Koh; Stefan Kohler; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Jacek A. Kopec; Anna V. Korotkova; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Anirudh Kotlo; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kris J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; K.S. Shaji; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Bicer Kucuk; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Justin J. Lang; Sinéad M. Langan; Van Charles Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi Jane Larson; Samantha Leigh Larson; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Pablo M. Lavados; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Lisiane F. Leal; Janet L. Leasher; Jorge R. Ledesma; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Andrew T. Leever; Kate E. LeGrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Haley Lescinsky; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sarah Lewington; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Christine Lin; Ro-Ting Lin; Christine Linehan; Shai Linn; Stefan Listl; Hung-Chun Liu; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Yang Liu; Zichen Liu; Justin Lo; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Katharine J. Looker; Alan D. Lopez; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Platon D. Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. 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May; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Bahram Mohajer; Osama Mohamad; Efat Mohamadi; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. 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Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2019) Valery L. Feigin; Emma Nichols; Tahiya Alam; Marlena S. Bannick; Ettore Beghi; Natacha Blake; William J. Culpepper; E Ray Dorsey; Alexis Elbaz; Richard G. Ellenbogen; James L. Fisher; Christina Fitzmaurice; Giorgia Giussani; Linda Glennie; Spencer L. James; Catherine Owens Johnson; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Giancarlo Logroscino; Benoît Marin; W Cliff Mountjoy-Venning; Minh Nguyen; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Anoop P. Patel; Marco Piccininni; Gregory A. Roth; Timothy J. Steiner; Lars Jacob Stovner; Cassandra E I. Szoeke; Alice Theadom; Stein Emil Vollset; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Claire Wright; Joseph Raymond Zunt; Nooshin Abbasi; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rustam Al-Shahi Salman; Fares Alahdab; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nahla Hamed Anber; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Tambe B. Ayuk; Alaa Badawi; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Bernhard T. Baune; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Mircea Beuran; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Christopher Kynrint Blazes; Carol Brayne; Zahid A. Butt; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Irini Chatziralli; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Cyrus Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera M. Costa; Michael H. Criqui; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Ahmad Daryani; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Meaza Girma Degefa; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Daniel Diaz; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Shirin Djalalinia; David Teye Doku; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; David Edvardsson; Ziad El-Khatib; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Farzaneh Farhadi; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Batool Fatima; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Takeshi Fukumoto; Morsaleh Ganji; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Demeke Geremew; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mahari Y. Gidey; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Josep Maria Haro; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behnam Heidari; Andualem Henok; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Guoqing Hu; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Mehdi Javanbakht; Ravi Prakash Jha; Yash B. Jobanputra; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Józwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Teshome Abegaz Kamil; Tanuj Kanchan; Manoochehr Karami; André Karch; Narges Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Anil Kaul; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Habibolah Khazaie; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Anthony S. Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Ai Koyanagi; Rita V. Krishnamurthi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Manasi Kumar; Ben Lacey; Alessandra Lafranconi; Van C. Lansingh; Arman Latifi; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yu Liao; Shai Linn; Warren David Lo; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Robyn M. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Mark T. Mackay; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Winfried März; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Kedar K V. Mate; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Varshil Mehta; Toni Meier; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Peter T N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Yoshan Moodley; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Shane Douglas Morrison; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Oumer Sada Muhammed; Walter Muruet; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Mehdi Naderi; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Charles Richard James Newton; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Peter S. Nyasulu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Eyal Oren; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Mahesh P. A; Amir H. Pakpour; Wen-Harn Pan; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Sangram Kishor Patel; David M. Pereira; Max Petzold; Julian David Pillay; Michael A. Piradov; Guilherme V. Polanczyk; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Richie Poulton; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; V. Prakash; Mostafa Qorbani; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Fatemeh Rajati; Usha Ram; Anna Ranta; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Nickolas Reinig; Cesar Reis; Andre M N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Nicholas L S. Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Elias Merdassa Roro; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Parisa Sabbagh; Ralph L. Sacco; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Hosein Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Payman Salamati; Saleh Salehi Zahabi; Yahya Salimi; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C. Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Hosein Shabaninejad; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Masood Ali Shaikh; Raad A. Shakir; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Kevin N. Sheth; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; João Pedro Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Eirini Skiadaresi; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Moslem Soofi; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Dan J. Stein; Murray B. Stein; Mark A. Stokes; Mu’Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bryan L. Sykes; Pn Sylaja; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Braden James Te Ao; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Jarnail Singh Thakur; Amanda G. Thrift; Roman Topor-Madry; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Lorainne Tudor Car; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Rajagopalan Vasanthan; Yousef Veisani; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Kia Vosoughi; Giang Thu Vu; Isidora S. Vujcic; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Elisabete Weiderpass; Jordan Weiss; Harvey A. Whiteford; Tissa Wijeratne; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A. Wolfe; Gelin Xu; Ali Yadollahpour; Tomohide Yamada; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Zohreh Zare; Yunquan Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Christopher J L. Murray; Theo Vos
Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders. Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach. Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable). Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Ilana N. Ackerman; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'A Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Mohammadreza Amiresmaili; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Amit Arora; Megha Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Zerihun Ataro; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Eyasu Tamru Bekru; Abate Bekele Belachew; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Samir Bhatt; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tone Bjorge; Archie Bleyer; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Massimo Cirillo; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Marita Cross; John A. Crump; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. 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Woolf; Grant M.A. Wyper; Denis Xavier; Gelin Xu; Simon Yadgir; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Lijing L. Yan; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Yasin Jemal Yasin; Alex Yeshaneh; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Marcel Yotebieng; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Heather J. Zar; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Ben Zipkin; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Inbar Zucker; Liesl Joanna Zuhlke; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Spencer L. James; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Zegeye Abebe; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Ilana N. Ackerman; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Mohamed M.L. Alouani; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Jalal Arabloo; Antonio Arauz; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Amit Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Zerihun Ataro; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Shoshana H. 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Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Heidar Sharafi; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Meenakshi Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Kenji Shibuya; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kawkab Shishani; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Haitham Shoman; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; João Pedro Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Narayana Sarma Venkata Singam; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Eirini Skiadaresi; Erica Leigh N. Slepak; Karen Sliwa; David L. Smith; Mari Smith; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugène Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Masoud Soosaraei; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Timothy J. Steiner; Mark A. Stokes; Lars Jacob Stovner; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; Dillon O. Sylte; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Hugh R. Taylor; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Habtamu Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Nihal Thomas; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Jeffrey A. Towbin; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Jurgen Unutzer; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Pascual R. Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Kia Vosoughi; Isidora S. Vujcic; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Stephen G. Waller; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Daniel J. Weiss; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; T. Eoin West; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka; Tissa Wijeratne; Lauren B. Wilner; Shadrach Wilson; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Alison B. Wiyeh; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Anthony D. Woolf; Shouling Wu; Yun-Chun Wu; Grant M.A. Wyper; Denis Xavier; Gelin Xu; Simon Yadgir; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Lijing L. Yan; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Yasin Jemal Yasin; Alex Yeshaneh; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Marcel Yotebieng; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Zohreh Zare; Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
(Nature Research, 2020) Damaris K. Kinyoki; Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman; Brandon V. Pickering; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Laurie B. Marczak; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Michael L. Collison; Nathaniel J. Henry; Zegeye Abebe; Abdu A. Adamu; Victor Adekanmbi; Keivan Ahmadi; Olufemi Ajumobi; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Vahid Alipour; Khalid Altirkawi; Saeed Amini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Suleman Atique; Marcel Ausloos; Marco Avila; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Quique Bassat; Kaleab Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Michelle L. Bell; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Boris Bikbov; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Roy Burstein; Zahid A. Butt; Josip Car; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Ester Cerin; Michael G. Chipeta; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael A. Cork; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Lucía Cuevas-Nasu; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Farah Daoud; Rajat Das Gupta; Nicole Davis Weaver; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Kebede Deribe; Beruk Berhanu Desalegn; Aniruddha Deshpande; Melaku Desta; Daniel Diaz; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; David Teye Doku; Manisha Dubey; Andre R. Durães; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Lucas Earl; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Ziad El-Khatib; Babak Eshrati; Mohammad Fareed; Andre Faro; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Alireza Ghajar; Paramjit Singh Gill; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Ayman Grada; Yuming Guo; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Jason B. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Andualem Henok; Bernardo Hernández Prado; Mario Herrero; Claudiu Herteliu; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K. Hole; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Guoqing Hu; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Amaha Kahsay; Tanuj Kanchan; Manoochehr Karami; Amir Kasaeian; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Mona M. Khater; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Soewarta Kosen; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Sheetal D. Lad; Faris Hasan Lami; Paul H. Lee; Aubrey J. Levine; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Rakesh Lodha; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Benjamin K. Mayala; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Mulugeta Melku; Walter Mendoza; George A. Mensah; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Jonathan F. Mosser; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Christopher J. L. Murray; Ghulam Mustafa; Mehdi Naderi; Mohsen Naghavi; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Jing Nie; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Peter S. Nyasulu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mahesh P. A; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Sanghamitra Pati; Snehal T. Patil; George C. Patton; Norberto Perico; David M. Pigott; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Ellen G. Piwoz; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Swayam Prakash; Hedley Quintana; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Rahul Rawat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Carlos Rios-González; Leonardo Roever; Jennifer M. Ross; Ali Rostami; Nafis Sadat; Yahya Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Nasir Salam; Payman Salamati; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Megan F. Schipp; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Teresa Shamah Levy; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Kiomars Sharafi; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Apurba Shil; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Moslem Soofi; Agus Sudaryanto; Muawiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Olalekan A. Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Afsane Vaezi; Pascual R. Valdez; John Vanderheide; Yousef Veisani; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yasir Waheed; Judd L. Walson; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Elizabeth N. Wangia; Andrea Werdecker; Gelin Xu; Tomohide Yamada; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Yunquan Zhang; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Simon I. Hay
Childhood malnutrition is associated with high morbidity and mortality globally1. Undernourished children are more likely to experience cognitive, physical, and metabolic developmental impairments that can lead to later cardiovascular disease, reduced intellectual ability and school attainment, and reduced economic productivity in adulthood2. Child growth failure (CGF), expressed as stunting, wasting, and underweight in children under five years of age (0–59 months), is a specific subset of undernutrition characterized by insufficient height or weight against age-specific growth reference standards3–5. The prevalence of stunting, wasting, or underweight in children under five is the proportion of children with a height-for-age, weight-for-height, or weight-for-age z-score, respectively, that is more than two standard deviations below the World Health Organization’s median growth reference standards for a healthy population6. Subnational estimates of CGF report substantial heterogeneity within countries, but are available primarily at the first administrative level (for example, states or provinces)7; the uneven geographical distribution of CGF has motivated further calls for assessments that can match the local scale of many public health programmes8. Building from our previous work mapping CGF in Africa9, here we provide the first, to our knowledge, mapped high-spatial-resolution estimates of CGF indicators from 2000 to 2017 across 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of affected children live1, aggregated to policy-relevant first and second (for example, districts or counties) administrative-level units and national levels. Despite remarkable declines over the study period, many LMICs remain far from the ambitious World Health Organization Global Nutrition Targets to reduce stunting by 40% and wasting to less than 5% by 2025. Large disparities in prevalence and progress exist across and within countries; our maps identify high-prevalence areas even within nations otherwise succeeding in reducing overall CGF prevalence. By highlighting where the highest-need populations reside, these geospatial estimates can support policy-makers in planning interventions that are adapted locally and in efficiently directing resources towards reducing CGF and its health implications. © 2020, The Author(s).
Mapping geographical inequalities in access to drinking water and sanitation facilities in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Aniruddha Deshpande; Molly K. Miller-Petrie; Paulina A. Lindstedt; Mathew M. Baumann; Kimberly B. Johnson; Brigette F. Blacker; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mohsen Afarideh; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Mehdi Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Anwar E. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; James Albright; Ammar Albujeer; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Animut Alebel; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Muhammad Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Mina Anjomshoa; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Benny Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Jalal Arabloo; Hany Mohamed Amin Aref; Olatunde Aremu; Bahram Armoon; Amit Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Daniel Asmelash; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Seyyede Masoume Athari; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Shally Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Andrew S. Azman; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Vo Dinh Bay; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Mahya Beheshti; Meysam Behzadifar; Masoud Behzadifar; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Michelle L. Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Habib Benzian; Dessalegn Ajema Berbada; Robert S. Bernstein; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Alexandria Brown; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Ester Cerin; Binaya Chalise; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Natalie Maria Cormier; Vera Marisa Costa; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Tukur Dahiru; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Rakhi Dandona; Lalit Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Farah Daoud; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Aditya Prasad Dash; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Assefa Desalew; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Preeti Dhillon; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Hoa Thi Do; Christiane Dolecek; Kerrie E. Doyle; Eleonora Dubljanin; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Nevine El Nahas; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Adane Endalew; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Arash Etemadi; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Mohammad Fareed; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Alebachew Fasil; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Wubalem Fekadu; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Carsten Flohr; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Joseph Jon Frostad; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Gregory M. Garcia; Augustine Mwangi Gatotoh; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Farzaneh Ghazi Sherbaf; Tiffany K. Gill; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Alem Girmay; Zemichael Gizaw; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Manfred S. Green; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Giang Hai Ha; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Dessalegn H. Haile; Michael Tamene Haile; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Hamidreza Haririan; Ninuk Hariyani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Desta Haftu Hayelom; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Thomas R. Hird; Chi Linh Hoang; Gillian I. Hollerich; Praveen Hoogar; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Guoqing Hu; Ayesha Humayun; Syed Ather Hussain; Mamusha Aman A. Hussen; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Tanuj Kanchan; André Karch; Surendra Karki; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Gebrehiwot G. Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Amir M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mohammad Khazaei; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Ali Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Pushpendra Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Aparna Lal; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van Charles Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Mostafa Leili; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Aubrey J. Levine; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Platon D. Lopukhov; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; D.R. Mahadeshwara Prasad; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan B. Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Gabriel Martinez; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Manu Raj Mathur; Benjamin K. Mayala; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Kala M. Mehta; Teferi Mekonnen; Tefera Chane Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Peter T. N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Workua Mekonnen Metekiya; Bartosz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K. Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Hassen Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Mohammad Moradi-Joo; Paula Moraga; Linda Morales; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F. Mosser; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Miliva Mozaffor; Sandra B. Munro; Moses K. Muriithi; Christopher J. L. Murray; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Gurudatta Naik; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Quynhanh P. Nguyen; Solomon Gedlu Nigatu; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Marzieh Nojomi; Ole F. Norheim; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Bogdan Oancea; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Frank B. Osei; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Adrian Pana; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Ajay Patle; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; Aslam Pervaiz; Julia Moreira Pescarini; Konrad Pesudovs; Hai Quang Pham; David M. Pigott; Thomas Pilgrim; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Mario Poljak; Ian Pollock; Maarten J. Postma; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Sergio I. Prada; Liliana Preotescu; Hedley Quintana; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Siavash Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Fatemeh Rajati; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja C. Rao; Davide Rasella; Goura Kishor Rath; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Wasiq Faraz Rawasia; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Enrico Rubagotti; Salvatore Rubino; Anas M. Saad; Siamak Sabour; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Yahya Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Ahsan Saleem; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Alyssa N. Sbarra; Lauren E. Schaeffer; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Amira A. Shaheen; Izza Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Balbir Bagicha Singh; Ambrish Singh; Virendra Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Malede Mequanent Sisay; Eirini Skiadaresi; David L. Smith; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Anton Sokhan; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Bineyam Taye; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Akhil Soman Thekkepurakkal; Nihal Thomas; Robert L. Thompson; Alan J. Thomson; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu; Pascual R. Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Yousef Veisani; Francesco S. Violante; Sebastian Vollmer; Feleke Gebremeskel Whawariat; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yafeng Wang; Kinley Wangdi; Daniel J. Weiss; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; Ronny Westerman; Taweewat Wiangkham; Kirsten E. Wiens; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Getasew Taddesse Worku; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Mehdi Yaseri; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Alex Yeshaneh; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Siddhesh Zadey; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Heather J. Zar; Taddese Alemu Zerfu; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Simon I. Hay; Robert C. Reiner
Background: Universal access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities is an essential human right, recognised in the Sustainable Development Goals as crucial for preventing disease and improving human wellbeing. Comprehensive, high-resolution estimates are important to inform progress towards achieving this goal. We aimed to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of access to drinking water and sanitation facilities. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model and data from 600 sources across more than 88 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) to estimate access to drinking water and sanitation facilities on continuous continent-wide surfaces from 2000 to 2017, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. We estimated mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive subcategories of facilities for drinking water (piped water on or off premises, other improved facilities, unimproved, and surface water) and sanitation facilities (septic or sewer sanitation, other improved, unimproved, and open defecation) with use of ordinal regression. We also estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths in children younger than 5 years attributed to unsafe facilities and estimated deaths that were averted by increased access to safe facilities in 2017, and analysed geographical inequality in access within LMICs. Findings: Across LMICs, access to both piped water and improved water overall increased between 2000 and 2017, with progress varying spatially. For piped water, the safest water facility type, access increased from 40·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 39·4–40·7) to 50·3% (50·0–50·5), but was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, where access to piped water was mostly concentrated in urban centres. Access to both sewer or septic sanitation and improved sanitation overall also increased across all LMICs during the study period. For sewer or septic sanitation, access was 46·3% (95% UI 46·1–46·5) in 2017, compared with 28·7% (28·5–29·0) in 2000. Although some units improved access to the safest drinking water or sanitation facilities since 2000, a large absolute number of people continued to not have access in several units with high access to such facilities (>80%) in 2017. More than 253 000 people did not have access to sewer or septic sanitation facilities in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe, despite 88·6% (95% UI 87·2–89·7) access overall. Many units were able to transition from the least safe facilities in 2000 to safe facilities by 2017; for units in which populations primarily practised open defecation in 2000, 686 (95% UI 664–711) of the 1830 (1797–1863) units transitioned to the use of improved sanitation. Geographical disparities in access to improved water across units decreased in 76·1% (95% UI 71·6–80·7) of countries from 2000 to 2017, and in 53·9% (50·6–59·6) of countries for access to improved sanitation, but remained evident subnationally in most countries in 2017. Interpretation: Our estimates, combined with geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden, identify where efforts to increase access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities are most needed. By highlighting areas with successful approaches or in need of targeted interventions, our estimates can enable precision public health to effectively progress towards universal access to safe water and sanitation. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Kirsten E. Wiens; Paulina A. Lindstedt; Brigette F. Blacker; Kimberly B. Johnson; Mathew M. Baumann; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Maryam Adabi; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mohsen Afarideh; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Anwar E. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Mina Anjomshoa; Amir Anoushiravani; Fereshteh Ansari; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Benny Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Jalal Arabloo; Hany Mohamed Amin Aref; Olatunde Aremu; Bahram Armoon; Amit Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Seyyede Masoume Athari; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Peter S. Azzopardi; Ebrahim Babaee; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Alaa Badawi; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Huda Basaleem; Sanjay Basu; Vo Dinh Bay; Mohsen Bayati; Estifanos Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Mahya Beheshti; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Yaschilal Muche Belayneh; Michelle L. Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Dessalegn Ajema Berbada; Robert S. Bernstein; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Pranab Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Tesfaye Yitna Chichiabellu; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Natalie Maria Cormier; Vera Marisa Costa; Carlos Culquichicon; Matiwos Soboka Daba; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Assefa Desalew; Aniruddha Deshpande; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Preeti Dhillon; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Shirin Djalalinia; Kerrie E. Doyle; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Teshome Bekele Elema; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Hajer Elkout; Aisha Elsharkawy; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Aklilu Endalamaw; Daniel Adane Endalew; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Arash Etemadi; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Teshome Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Pramesh Raj Ghimire; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Nelson G.M. Gomes; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Dessalegn H. Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Hamidreza Haririan; Ninuk Hariyani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hagos Degefa De Hidru; Thomas R. Hird; Chi Linh Hoang; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Mohammad Hoseini; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Neda Izadi; Anelisa Jaca; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Hamed Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari Surendra Karki; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Yawukal Chane Kasahun; Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye; Gebrehiwot G. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Andre Pascal Kengne; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mohammad Khazaei; Salman Khazaei; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Ali Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; K.M. Shivakumar; Sonali Kochhar; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Sheetal D. Lad; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Felix Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Van Charles Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Avula Laxmaiah; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Mostafa Leili; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Aubrey J. Levine; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Joshua Longbottom; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; DR. Mahadeshwara Prasad; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan B. Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Narendar Dawani Dawanu Manohar; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Gabriel Martinez; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Benjamin K. Mayala; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Kala M. Mehta; Tefera Chane Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Dara K. Mohammad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Noushin Mohammadifard; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Catrin E. Moore; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Mohammad Moradi-Joo; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Paula Moraga; Linda Morales; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Abbas Mosapour; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Miliva Mozaffor; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Getahun Fentaw Mulaw; Sandra B. Munro; Moses K. Muriithi; Christoper J.L. Murray; G.V.S. Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Kovin S. Naidoo; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dabere Nigatu; Solomon Gedlu Nigatu; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Marzieh Nojomi; Vuong Minh Nong; Ole F. Norheim; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Soraya Nouraei Motlagh; Bogdan Oancea; Okechukwu Samuel Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Eyal Oren; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Frank B. Osei; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Sangram Kishor Patel; Angel J. Paternina-Caicedo; Ashish Pathak; George C. Patton; Deepak Paudel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Alexandre Pereira; Norberto Perico; Aslam Pervaiz; Julia Moreira Pescarini; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Sergio I. Prada; Narayan Prasad; Liliana Preotescu; Hedley Quintana; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Shafiur Rahman; Fatemeh Rajati; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Wasiq Faraz Rawasia; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Melese Abate Reta; Negar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Maria Rios-Blancas; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Elias Merdassa Roro; Jennifer M. Ross; Enrico Rubagotti; Salvatore Rubino; Anas M. Saad; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Siamak Sabour; Ehsan Sadeghi; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Payman Salamati; Hosni Salem; Marwa Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Kaushik Sarkar; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori; Hosein Shabaninejad; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammad Bagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Hamid Sharifi; Hatem Samir Shehata; Aziz Sheikh; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Desalegn Markos Shifti; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Soraya Siabani; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Virendra Singh; Malede Mequanent Sisay; Eirini Skiadaresi; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Anton Sokhan; Shahin Soltani; Ranjani Somayaji; Moslem Soofi; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Marufa Sultana; Bruno Fokas Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Aberash Abay Tasew; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Nihal Thomas; Alemayehu Toma; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu; Pascual R. Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Francesco S. Violante; Sebastian Vollmer; Feleke Gebremeskel Whawariat; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Marcia Weaver; Bedilu Girma Weji; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Catherine A. Welgan; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Taweewat Wiangkham; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Getasew Taddesse Worku; Ai-Min Wu; Gelin Xu; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Alex Yeshaneh; Christopher Sabo Yilgwan; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Siddhesh Zadey; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Nejimu Biza Zepro; Taddese Alemu Zerfu; Yunquan Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Simon I. Hay; Robert C. Reiner
Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; Degu Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Y. Abyu; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Dominic Agius; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Ammar Albujeer; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Samia Alhabib; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Ali Almasi; Fatma Al-Maskari; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Kebede Amenu; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Johan Ärnlöv; Monika Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Peter S. Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Amitava Banerjee; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Robert J. Battista; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Adugnaw Berhane; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Anil Bhansali; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Helen Bitew; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Espen Bjertness; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Gene Bukhman; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Alanur Çavlin; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Hans De Steur; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Tim Robert Driscoll; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Erika Eldrenkamp; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Jessica Fanzo; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Hossein Farzam; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Wubalem Fekadu; Rachel Feldman; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Ron T. Gansevoort; Ana Cristina Garcia; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Sefonias Getachew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Max G. Griswold; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Francis Guillemin; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Giang Hai Ha; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Michael Tamene Haile; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Behzad Heydarpour; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Martha Híjar; Hans W. Hoek; Daniel J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Caitlyn Hughes; Chantal K. Huynh; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Neda Izadi; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Amr A. Jamal; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; K. Madhanraj; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; K.C. Prakash; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Helen W. Kiarie; Getiye D. Kibret; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Margaret N. Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A. Kudom; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carl Lachat; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Abraham K. Lagat; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Qing Lan; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Anders O. Larsson; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S. Lassi; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Janet L. Leasher; Georgy Lebedev; Jorge R. Ledesma; James B. Lee; Paul H. Lee; Andrew T. Leever; James Leigh; Mall Leinsalu; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Lydia R. Lucchesi; Ronan A. Lyons; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Srikanth Mangalam; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C. O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Tesfa Mekonen; Tefera C. Chane Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T. N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Gert B. M. Mensink; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Shawn P. Minnig; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Babak Moazen; Ali Akbar Moghadamnia; Bahram Mohajer; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Murali B. V. Mohan; Viswanathan Mohan; Farnam Mohebi; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Mahmoudreza Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Naho Morisaki; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Marilita M. Moschos; W Cliff Mountjoy-Venning; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Oumer Sada S. Muhammed; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Erin C. Mullany; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Manoj Murhekar; G.V.S. Murthy; Srinivas Murthy; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Jean B. Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Kovin Naidoo; Gurudatta Naik; Nitish Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Haseeb Nawaz; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Solomon Gedlu Nigatu; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Marika Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Okechukwu Samuel Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Kelechi E. Oladimeji; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Ong; Anu Mary Oommen; John Nelson Opio; Eyal Oren; Andrei Oros; Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo; Erika Ota; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Wen-Harn Pan; Adrian Pana; Basant Kumar Panda; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Nikolaos Papantoniou; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D. H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Deepak Paudel; Katherine R. Paulson; Neil Pearce; Emmanuel K. Peprah; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Aslam Pervaiz; Konrad Pesudovs; William A. Petri; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Martin Pletcher; Constance Dimity Pond; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Manita Pyakurel; Mostafa Qorbani; Reginald Quansah; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Md Shafiur Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Saleem M. Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-García; K Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Cesar Reis; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L. S. Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Gregory A. Roth; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; George Mugambage Ruhago; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mete Saylan; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione J. C. Schneider; Ben Schöttker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Christopher J.L. Murray; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Vinay Srinivasan; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Nasrin Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia V. Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Ali Almasi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Nicholas Arian; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Reza Assadi; Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey; Suleman Atique; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B. Ayuk; Peter S. Azzopardi; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Ezra Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Gilles Bergeron; Adugnaw Berhane; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Tuhin Biswas; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Archie Bleyer; Berrak Bora Basara; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Jerry D. Brewer; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Roy Burstein; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Alanur Çavlin; Ester Cerin; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Sara Conti; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Petra Cukelj; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Eric L. Ding; Girmaye Deye Dinsa; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kate A. Dolan; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Tamer Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Carla Sofia E. SáFarinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Kairsten A. Fay; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Fariba Feizy; Ama P. Fenny; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Thomas Fürst; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Gregory M. Garcia; Miguel Á. Garcia-Gordillo; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Peter Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Jingwen Guo; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Meimanat M. Hosseini Chavoshi; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Asnake Ararsa Irenso; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Anshul Kastor; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Paul Evan Kilgore; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Margaret N. Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Sanjay Krishnaswami; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Fekede Asefa Kumsa; Michael J. Kutz; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Justin J. Lang; Sonia Lansky; Van C. Lansingh; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S. Lassi; Arman Latifi; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; James B. Lee; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Samson Leta; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Crispin Mabika Mabika; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Fabiana Madotto; Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Manzoor Ahmad Malik; Abdullah A. Mamun; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Ana-Laura Manda; Srikanth Mangalam; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Shakhnazarova Marina; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Melvin B. Marzan; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Felix Masiye; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; John J. McGrath; Suresh Mehata; Sanjay Madhav Mehendale; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Saeed Mehrzadi; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Yode Miangotar; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Glen Dl Mola; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez; Ghobad Moradi; Mahmoudreza Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Rintaro Mori; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Marilita M. Moschos; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Tasha B. Murphy; Kate Muller; G.V.S. Murthy; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Paulami Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Haseeb Nawaz; Busisiwe P. Ncama; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Grant Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Shuhei Nomura; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Alypio Nyandwi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Okechukwu Samuel Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Sok King Ong; Alberto Ortiz; Aaron Osgood-Zimmerman; Erika Ota; Brenda Achieng Otieno; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Abayomi Samuel Oyekale; P.A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Adrian Pana; Basant Kumar Panda; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Achyut Raj Pandey; Eun-Kee Park; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Snehal T. Patil; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Deepak Paudel; Marcel Moraes Pedroso; Emmanuel K. Peprah; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; William A. Petri; Max Petzold; Maxwell Pierce; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Guilherme V. Polanczyk; Maarten J. Postma; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Manorama B. 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Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license