Browsing by Author "Ali H Mokdad"

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Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Avina Vongpradith; Sarah Brooke Sirota; Amanda Novotney; Christopher E Troeger; Matthew C Doxey; Rose G Bender; Jorge R Ledesma; Molly H Biehl; Samuel B Albertson; Joseph Jon Frostad; Katrin Burkart; Fiona B Bennitt; Jeff T Zhao; William M Gardner; Hailey Hagins; Dana Bryazka; Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Michael Abdelmasseh; Amir Abdoli; Gholamreza Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Vida Abedi; Tadesse M Abegaz; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Yonas Derso Abtew; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Kidist Adamu; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A Adegboye; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Luciana Albano; Mamoon A Aldeyab; Bezatu Mengistie Alemu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Abdelazeem M Algammal; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Musa Mohammed Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Adel Al-Jumaily; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Rami H Hani Al-Rifai; Saif Aldeen S AlRyalat; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi; John H Amuasi; Dickson A Amugsi; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Demelash Areda; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Engi F Attia; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Tewachew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Samad Azari; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; MacIej Banach; Indrajit Banerjee; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Quique Bassat; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Abate Bekele Belachew; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Parth Bhatt; Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Soumitra S Bhuyan; Ali Bijani; Saeid Bitaraf; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Jiao Cai; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Muluken Genetu Chanie; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Patrick R Ching; Sungchul Choi; Yuen Yu Chong; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Natalie L Cobb; Aaron J Cohen; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; An Thi Minh Dao; Sisay Abebe Debela; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Diriba Dereje; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Belay Desye; Sameer Dhingra; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Fariba Dorostkar; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Eleonora Dubljanin; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Hisham Atan Edinur; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Eman D El Desouky; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Ahmed Mahmoud Rabie Elkhapery; Amir Emami; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Farshid Etaee; Mohamad Ezati Asar; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Shahab Falahi; Aida Fallahzadeh; Anwar Faraj; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Ali Fatehizadeh; Pietro Ferrara; Allegra Allegra Ferrari; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Joanne Flavel; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Santosh Gaihre; Nasrin Galehdar; Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Damtew Gebrehiwot; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Bradford D Gessner; Melaku Getachew; Asmare Getie; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Rakesh Ghosh; Sherief Ghozy; Pouya Goleij; Mohamad Golitaleb; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C Goulart; Girma Garedew Goyomsa; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Zewdie Gudisa; Rashid Abdi Guled; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Md Abdul Hannan; Mehdi Harorani; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Abbas M Hassan; Shokoufeh Hassani; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Mohammad Heidari; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Sung Hwi Hong; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Masao Iwagami; Jalil Jaafari; Elham Jamshidi; Sung-In Jang; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Tahereh Javaheri; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Javad Javidnia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Jayarajah; Shubha Jayaram; Alelign Tasew Jema; Wonjeong Jeong; Jost B Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; V. K; Zubair Kabir; Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi; Vidya Kadashetti; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K Kanko; Ibraheem M Karaye; André Karch; Samad Karkhah; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Patrick D M C Katoto; Harkiran Kaur; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Yusra H Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Mina Khosravifar; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Luke D Knibbs; Sonali Kochhar; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Judit Lám; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; László Lorenzovici; Mojgan Lotfi; Joana A Loureiro; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Jamal Majidpoor; Alaa Makki; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Yosef Manla; Clara N Matei; Alexander G Mathioudakis; Richard James Maude; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Addisu Melese; Ziad A Memish; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Tuomo J Meretoja; Mehari Woldemariam Merid; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Reza Mirfakhraie; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Agha Zeeshan Mirza; Moonis Mirza; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Abay Sisay Misganaw; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Mohammad Mohseni; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Md Moniruzzaman; Fateme Montazeri; Catrin E Moore; Abdolvahab Moradi; Lidia Morawska; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Majid Motaghinejad; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Seyed Ali Mousavi-Aghdas; Sumaira Mubarik; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Sanjeev Nair; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Houshang Najafi; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Huy Van Nguyen Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira De Sá; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Abderrahim Oulhaj; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Reza Pakzad; Tamás Palicz; Anamika Pandey; Suman Pant; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Rajan Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Minjin Peng; Gavin Pereira; Simone Perna; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; David M Pigott; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Vivek Podder; Roman V Polibin; Maarten J Postma; Hamid Pourasghari; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir; Mathieu Raad; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Saber Raeghi; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mehran Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Md Obaidur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Usha Rani; Sowmya J Rao; Sina Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Marissa B Reitsma; Andre M N Renzaho; Mohsen Rezaeian; Abanoub Riad; Reza Rikhtegar; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Emma L B Rogowski; Luca Ronfani; Kristina E Rudd; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Azam Safary; Sher Zaman Safi; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sateesh Sakhamuri; Sana Salehi; Muhammad Salman; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Maryam Sarkhosh; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Hina Shamshad; Mequannent Melaku Sharew; Asaad Sharhani; Azam Sharifi; Purva Sharma; Ali Sheidaei; Suchitra M Shenoy; Jeevan K Shetty; Damtew Solomon Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; K.M. Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Parnian Shobeiri; Wudneh Simegn; Colin R Simpson; Harpreet Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Yimeng Song; Prashant Sood; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Muhammad Suleman; Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh; Alireza Tahamtan; Majid Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Elahe Taki; Iman M Talaat; Mircea Tampa; Sarmila Tandukar; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Azene Tesfaye; Degefa Gomora Tesfaye; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Amir Tiyuri; Imad I Tleyjeh; Munkhsaikhan Togtmol; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Derara Girma Tufa; Irfan Ullah; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Rohollah Valizadeh; Constantine Vardavas; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Bay Vo; Linh Gia Vu; Birhanu Wagaye; Yasir Waheed; Yu Wang; Abdul Waris; T Eoin West; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Xiaoyue Xu; Sajad Yaghoubi; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Burhan Abdullah Zaman; Alireza Zandifar; Moein Zangiabadian; Heather J Zar; Iman Zare; Zahra Zareshahrabadi; Armin Zarrintan; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Wu Zeng; Mengxi Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zoladl; Alimuddin Zumla; Stephen S Lim; Theo Vos; Mohsen Naghavi; Michael Brauer; Simon I Hay; Christopher J L Murray
Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Annie Haakenstad; Jamal Akeem Yearwood; Nancy Fullman; Corinne Bintz; Kelly Bienhoff; Marcia R Weaver; Vishnu Nandakumar; Jonah N Joffe; Kate E LeGrand; Megan Knight; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Budi Aji; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Khurshid Alam; Hanadi Al Hamad; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Hubert Amu; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Pedro Prata Andrade; Afifa Anjum; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Hany Ariffin; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Tahira Ashraf; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Shrikala Baliga; Palash Chandra Banik; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Rebuma Belete; Arielle Wilder Bell; Devidas S Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Vera L A Carneiro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Joht Singh Chandan; Jaykaran Charan; Prachi P Chavan; Simiao Chen; Shu Chen; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Massimo Cirillo; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Saad M A Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Keshab Deuba; Meghnath Dhimal; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andem Effiong; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Islam Y Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Santosh Gaihre; William M Gardner; Tushar Garg; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Jenny S Guadamuz; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; M Tasdik Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Nathaniel J Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sahadat Hossain; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Junjie Huang; M Mamun Huda; Susan C Ifeagwu; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Rajesh Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Kaloyan Kamenov; Himal Kandel; Rami S Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Marina Karanikolos; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Taras Kavetskyy; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Maseer Khan; Mehdi Khezeli; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Vitalii Klymchuk; Kamrun Nahar Koly; Oleksii Korzh; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Shanshan Li; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Adolfo Martinez-Valle; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Richard James Maude; Pallab K Maulik; Martin McKee; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Simin Mouodi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Chie Nagata; Mohsen Naghavi; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Hasan Nassereldine; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Bogdan Oancea; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Adrian Otoiu; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Praveen Kumar Pathak; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Manju Pilania; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Vivek Podder; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Sergio I Prada; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Harihar Sahoo; Maitreyi Sahu; Joseph S Salama; Payman Salamati; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Maria Inês Schmidt; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Adithi Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Azad Shokri; Jasvinder A Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Raúl A R C Sousa; Jacqueline H Stephens; Jing Sun; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Niharika Tripathi; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Christopher E Troeger; Deinzel Robles Uezono; Saif Ullah; Anayat Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Milena Vasic; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiǧit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Stephen S Lim; Christopher J L Murray; Rafael Lozano
Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Erratum: Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1725–1774)(S0140673616315756)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31575-6))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2017) Haidong Wang; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Matthew M Coates; Megan Coggeshall; Lalit Dandona; Khassoum Diallo; Elisabeth Barboza Franca; Maya Fraser; Nancy Fullman; Peter W Gething; Simon I Hay; Yohannes Kinfu; Maaya Kita; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Heidi J Larson; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Stephen S Lim; Margaret Lind; Alan D Lopez; Rafael Lozano; George A Mensah; Joseph B Mikesell; Ali H Mokdad; Meghan D Mooney; Mohsen Naghavi; Grant Nguyen; Ivo Rakovac; Joshua A Salomon; Naris Silpakit; Amber Sligar; Reed J D Sorensen; Theo Vos; Jun Zhu; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Kaja M Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M Abdulle; Semaw Ferede Abera; Victor Aboyans; Biju Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Tom Achoki; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Ademola Lukman Adelekan; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Arnav Agarwal; Oluremi N Ajala; Tomi F Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Khurshid Alam; Noore K M Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Robert William Aldridge; Miguel Angel Alegretti; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Raghib Ali; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Elena Alvarez Martin; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Emmanuel A Ameh; Walid Ammar; Stephen Marc Amrock; Hjalte H Andersen; Gregory M Anderson; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Suleman Atique; Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Bolanle F Banigbe; Aleksandra Barac; Ryan M Barber; Suzanne L Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Tigist Assefa Bayou; Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Tolesa Bekele; Michelle L Bell; Aminu K Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabé; Balem Demtsu Betsu; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Samir Bhatt; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Boris Bikbov; Sait Mentes Birlik; Donal Bisanzio; Espen Bjertness; Jed D Blore; Rupert R A Bourne; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Alexandria Brown; Geoffrey Colin Buckle; Michael Burch; Zahid A Butt; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano; Rosario Cárdenas; David O Carpenter; Juan Jesus Carrero; Austin Carter; Daniel C Casey; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ruben Estanislao Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly Cercy; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G Ciobanu; Samantha M Colquhoun; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Solomon Abrha Damtew; Hadi Danawi; Rakhi Dandona; José Das Neves; Adrian C Davis; Pieter de Jager; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C Des Jarlais; Gabrielle A Deveber; Samath D Dharmaratne; Preet K Dhillon; Eric L Ding; Pratik Pinal Doshi; Kerrie E Doyle; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal Elyazar; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Talha A Farid; Carla Sofia E Sa Farinha; André Faro; Maryam S Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Joao C Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Joseph R A Fitchett; Nataliya Foigt; Richard C Franklin; Joseph Friedman; Thomas Fürst; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Parthasarathi Ganguly; Teshome Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Alemseged Aregay Gebru; Johanna M Geleijnse; Bradford D Gessner; Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Hebe N Gouda; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Demewoz Haile; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Jamie Hancock; Alexis J Handal; Graeme J Hankey; Hilda L Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Kimani M Harun; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J Hay; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Hans W Hoek; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Peter J Hotez; Damian G Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Cheng Huang; John J Huang; Hsiang Huang; Laetitia Huiart; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Bulat T Idrisov; Kaire Innos; Kathryn H Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Sun Ha Jee; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Vivekanand Jha; Guohong Jiang; Ying Jiang; Tariku Jibat; Ye Jin; Jost B Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ritul Kamal; Haidong Kan; Gagandeep Kang; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Amir Kasaeian; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda; Konstantin Kazanjan; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Andrew Haddon Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Abdur Rahman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Irma Khonelidze; Jagdish Khubchandani; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Niranjan Kissoon; Miia Kivipelto; Luke D Knibbs; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A Kudom; G. Anil Kumar; Michael J Kutz; Hmwe H Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Jennifer O Lam; Van C Lansingh; Anders Larsson; James Leigh; Ricky Leung; Yichong Li; Yongmei Li; M Patrice Lindsay; Patrick Y Liu; Shiwei Liu; Belinda K Lloyd; Warren D Lo; Giancarlo Logroscino; Nicola Low; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A Lyons; Stefan Ma; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahdi Mahdavi; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Chabila C Mapoma; Wagner Marcenes; Jose Martinez-Raga; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; Felix Masiye; John J McGrath; Peter A Meaney; Alem Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Alemayehu B Mekonnen; Yohannes Adama Melaku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A Memish; Walter Mendoza; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Francis Apolinary Mhimbira; Ted R Miller; Edward J Mills; Mojde Mirarefin; Awoke Misganaw; Charles N Mock; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Alireza Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez; Marcella Montico; Ami R Moore; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Lidia Morawska; Rintaro Mori; Ulrich O Mueller; Georgina A V Murphy; Srinivas Murthy; Jean B Nachega; Aliya Naheed; Kovin S Naidoo; Luigi Naldi; Devina Nand; Vinay Nangia; Subas Neupane; Charles R Newton; John N Newton; Marie Ng; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Peter Nguhiu; Quyen Le Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete; Ole F Norheim; Rosana E Norman; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Foluke Adetola Ojelabi; Pedro R Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; P.A. Mahesh; Eun-Kee Park; Hye-Youn Park; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Angel J Paternina Caicedo; Scott B Patten; João Mário Pedro; David M Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Daniel Pope; Svetlana Popova; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Rynaz H S Rabiee; Anwar Rafay; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Murugesan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja Rao; Amany H Refaat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Serge Resnikoff; Alex Reynolds; David Rojas-Rueda; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A Roth; Ambuj Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Rajesh Sagar; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Juan R Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S Santos; João Vasco Santos; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Edson E Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Kevin N Sheth; Kenji Shibuya; Hwashin Hyun Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shuie; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jonathan Silverberg; Edgar P Simard; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Joan B Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Luciano A Sposato; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Bruno F Sunguya; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L Sykes; Cassandra E I Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Bineyam Taye; Bemnet Amare Tedla; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Tesfaye Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kiran Thapa; Alan J Thomson; Andrew L Thorne-Lyman; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Bach Xuan Tran; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene; Abera Kenay Tura; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N Ukwaja; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Raj Kumar Verma; Francesco S Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Linhong Wang; Yanping Wang; Scott Weichenthal; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G Weintraub; Daniel J Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Tissa Wijeratne; Thomas Neil Williams; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A Wolfe; Ingrid Wolfe; Sungho Won; Mamo Wubshet; Qingyang Xiao; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Pengpeng Ye; Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Hajo Zeeb; Hao Zhang; Yong Zhao; Yingfeng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
GBD 2015 Child Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1725–74—In this Article, Mohsen Naghavi, Michael J Kutz, Chantal Huynh, Samer Hamidi, Addisu Shunu Beyene, and Stephen S Lim should have been listed as authors. The affiliation details for Simon I Hay have been updated. The funding statement for Simon I Hay has been added. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Jan 5, 2017. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Katrin Burkart; Kate Causey; Aaron J Cohen; Sarah S Wozniak; Devashri Digvijay Salvi; Cristiana Abbafati; Victor Adekanmbi; Jose C Adsuar; Keivan Ahmadi; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Timur Aripov; Ebrahim Babaee; MacIej Banach; Anthony Barnett; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Robert S Bernstein; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Somayeh Bohlouli; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Zahid A Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; Kairat Davletov; Barbora De Courten; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Bruce B Duncan; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Mohammad Fareed; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Marisa Freitas; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Randah R Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J Hankey; Edris Hasanpoor; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I Hay; Behzad Heibati; Michael K Hole; Naznin Hossain; Mowafa Househ; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jalil Jaafari; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Amir Kasaeian; Neda Kaydi; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir M Khater; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D Knibbs; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H Lee; Mostafa Leili; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Yong Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan B Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Abdullah A Mamun; Navid Manafi; Santi Martini; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Ritesh G Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Bahram Mohajer; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Gurudatta Naik; Vinay Nangia; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Mayowa O Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Samira Raoofi; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Daniela Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kerem Shuval; Ireneous N Soyiri; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Lorainne Tudor Car; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Francesco S Violante; Yasir Waheed; Charles D A Wolfe; Tomohide Yamada; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Sojib Bin Zaman; Yunquan Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Stephen S Lim; Jeffrey D Stanaway; Michael Brauer
Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5. Interpretation: Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Kevin S Ikuta; Lucien R Swetschinski; Gisela Robles Aguilar; Fablina Sharara; Tomislav Mestrovic; Authia P Gray; Nicole Davis Weaver; Eve E Wool; Chieh Han; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Amirali Aali; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Getachew Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Amir Parsa Abhari; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Abdorrahim Absalan; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Juan Manuel Acuna; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A Adegboye; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Zahra Babaei Aghdam; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Rizwan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Mamoon A Aldeyab; Alicia V Aleman; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Kasim Allel; Sami Almustanyir; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Arianna Maever L Amit; Nivedita Anandavelane; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Dewi Anggraini; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Demelash Areda; Timur Aripov; Anton A Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Muhammad Asaduzzaman; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Sameh Attia; Marcel Ausloos; Tewachew Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; B. Darshan; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; Indrajit Banerjee; Aleksandra Barac; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Neeraj Bedi; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Rose G Bender; Bharti Bhandari; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Saeid Bitaraf; Danilo Buonsenso; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Jiao Cai; Daniela Calina; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Muge Cevik; Joshua Chadwick; Jaykaran Charan; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Patrick R Ching; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Xiaochen Dai; Saswati Das; Anna Dastiridou; Sisay Abebe Debela; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Diriba Dereje; Msganaw Derese; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Samuel Abebe A Dessalegni; Belay Desye; Kartik Dhaduk; Meghnath Dhimal; Sameer Dhingra; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Bezabih Terefe Dora; Fariba Dorostkar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Eleonora Dubljanin; Susanna J Dunachie; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Hisham Atan Edinur; Habtamu Bekele Ejigu; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Hassan El-Abid; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A Elmonem; Amir Emami; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Babak Eshrati; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Shahab Falahi; Aida Fallahzadeh; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Ali Fatehizadeh; Ginenus Fekadu; João C Fernandes; Allegra Ferrari; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Balasankar Ganesan; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Reza Ghanbari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Amador Goodridge; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Atlas Haddadi Avval; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Md Abdul Hannan; Harapan Harapan; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Nawfal R Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mohammad Tarique Imam; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Arnaud Iradukunda; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Chidozie C D Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Merin J. 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Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Mustafa Kamal Sikder; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Damtew Damtew Solomon; Yimeng Song; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Saima Sultana; Miklós Szócska; Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh; Mohammad Tabish; Majid Taheri; Elahe Taki; Ker-Kan Tan; Sarmila Tandukar; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Belay Negash Tefera; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Samar Tharwat; Arulmani Thiyagarajan; Imad I Tleyjeh; Christopher E Troeger; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Jef Van Den Eynde; H Rogier Van Doorn; Siavash Vaziri; Georgios-Ioannis Verras; Harimadhav Viswanathan; Bay Vo; Abdul Waris; Gizachew Tadesse Wassie; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Sajad Yaghoubi; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yigit; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mazyar Zahir; Burhan Abdullah Zaman; Sojib Bin Zaman; Moein Zangiabadian; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Peng Zheng; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zoladl; Alimuddin Zumla; Simon I Hay; Christiane Dolecek; Benn Sartorius; Christopher J L Murray; Mohsen Naghavi
Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Manuela L Ferreira; Katie De Luca; Lydia M Haile; Jaimie D Steinmetz; Garland T Culbreth; Marita Cross; Jacek A Kopec; Paulo H Ferreira; Fiona M Blyth; Rachelle Buchbinder; Jan Hartvigsen; Ai-Min Wu; Saeid Safiri; Anthony D Woolf; Gary S Collins; Kanyin Liane Ong; Stein Emil Vollset; Amanda E Smith; Jessica A Cruz; Kai Glenn Fukutaki; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Ahmed Abdelalim; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Ali Ahmadi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Abayneh Tadesse Alamer; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Yousef Alimohamadi; Mansour Abdullah Alshehri; Mohammed Mansour Alshehri; Hosam Alzahrani; Saeed Amini; Sohrab Amiri; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Judie Arulappan; Ashokan Arumugam; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Nefsu Awoke; Sina Azadnajafabad; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Amadou Barrow; Akbar Barzegar; Lindsay M Bearne; Isabela M Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Bharti Bhandari Bhandari; Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Javier Brazo-Sayavera; Andrew M Briggs; Chao Cao; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Flavia M Cicuttini; Benjamin Clarsen; Sarah Cuschieri; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Azizallah Dehghan; Takele Gezahegn G Demie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Hoa Thi Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Michael Ekholuenetale; Muhammed Elhadi; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Shahriar Faghani; Jawad Fares; Ali Fatehizadeh; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Balasankar Ganesan; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Motuma Erena Getachew; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Tiffany K Gill; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Bhawna Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Pawan Kumar Hamal; Asif Hanif; Netanja I Harlianto; Hamidreza Hasani; Simon I Hay; Jeffrey J Hebert; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Ravi Prakash Jha; Har Ashish Jindal; Jost B Jonas; Gebisa Guyasa Kabito; Himal Kandel; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Vikash Ranjan Keshri; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Jobair Khan; Moien A B Khan; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Jitka Klugarová; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Ai Koyanagi; G Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Narges Malih; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Ted R Miller; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Maryam Mobarakabadi; Yousef Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Christopher J L Murray; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Javad Nazari; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Subas Neupane; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Ali Nowroozi; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Emad Omer; Abderrahim Oulhaj; Mayowa O Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Kee Park; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Jeevan Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Mohammadreza Pourahmadi; Amir Radfar; Shahram Rahimi-Dehgolan; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Chythra R Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Zahed Rezaei; Leonardo Roever; Guilherme De Andrade Ruela; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Francesco Sanmarchi; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Saeed Shahabi; Shayan Shahrokhi; Elaheh Shaker; Mohammad Bagher Shamsi; Mohammed Shannawaz; Saurab Sharma; Maryam Shaygan; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jeevan K Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Siddharudha Shivalli; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Helen Slater; Marco Solmi; Ranjani Somayaji; Ker-Kan Tan; Rekha Thapar; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Rohollah Valizadeh; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yuan-Pang Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Iman Zare; Armin Zarrintan; Mohammad Zoladl; Theo Vos; Lyn M March
Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
(Elsevier Ltd, 2018) Joseph Raymond Zunt; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Natacha Blake; Linda Glennie; Claire Wright; Emma Nichols; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Abdu A Adamu; Mina G Adib; Alireza Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Nadia Akseer; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Mohammad A AlMazora; Khalid; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Rana Jawad Asghar; Euripide F G A Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Hamid Badali; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Quique Bassat; Neeraj Bedi; Abate Bekele Belachew; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Zahid A Butt; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J Choi; Devasahayam J Christopher; Anh Kim Dang; Ahmad Daryani; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Hamed Fakhim; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Takeshi Fukumoto; Morsaleh Ganji; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Afewerki Gebremeskel; Bradford D Gessner; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Simon I Hay; Andualem Henok; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Ravi Prakash Jha; Mikk Jürisson; Amaha Kahsay; Manoochehr Karami; André Karch; Amir Kasaeian; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Adane Teshome Kefale; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Jagdish Khubchandani; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Faris Hasan Lami; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Clement T Loy; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Colm McAlinden; Varshil Mehta; Addisu Melese; Ziad A Memish; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Branko Milosevic; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Paula Moraga; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Srinivas Murthy; Ghulam Mustafa; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Gurudatta Naik; Charles Richard James Newton; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R Nixon; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Justin R Ortiz; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Shanti Patel; Gabriel D Pinilla-Monsalve; Maarten J Postma; Mostafa Qorbani; Alireza Rafiei; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Robert C Reiner; Andre M N Renzaho; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Kedir Teji Roba; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Hosein Safari; Saeed Safari; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehdi Sharif; Mika Shigematsu; Si Si; Eirini Skiadaresi; Mari Smith; Ranjani Somayaji; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Nega Yimer Tawye; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Isidora S Vujcic; Fasil Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Alison B Wiyeh; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Grant M A Wyper; Ebrahim M Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Zoubida Zaidi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Valery L Feigin; Theo Vos; Christopher J L Murray
Background: Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings: Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426–458 514) to 318 400 (265 218–408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19–2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46–3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585–978 219) globally, but decreased the most (–49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076–533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358–221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682–178 022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06–1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787–839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04—1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20—28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation: Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Valery L Feigin; Melsew Dagne Abate; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Samar Abd ElHafeez; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Atef Abdelkader; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Parsa Abdi; Arash Abdollahi; Meriem Abdoun; Rami Abd-Rabu; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Auwal Abdullahi; Mesfin Abebe; Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga; E.S. Abhilash; Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun; Olumide Abiodun; Rahim Abo Kasem; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Mohamed Abouzid; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Dariush Abtahi; Samir Abu Rumeileh; Ahmed Abualhasan; Hasan Abualruz; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Hana J Abukhadijah; Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh; Salahdein Aburuz; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Juan Manuel Acuna; Denberu Eshetie Adane; Mesafint Molla Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Oyelola A Adegboye; Victor Adekanmbi; Kishor Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Leticia Akua Adzigbli; Abdelrahman Yousry Afify; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Fatemeh Afrashteh; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Shahin Aghamiri; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Muayyad M Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Shahzaib Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Syed Anees Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Essona Matatom Akara; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif; Ashley E Akrami; Salah Al Awaidy; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan; Mohammad Al Qadire; Omar Al Ta'ani; Yazan Al-Ajlouni; Samer O Alalalmeh; Tariq A Alalwan; Ziyad Al-Aly; Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer; Wafa A Aldhaleei; Mohammed S Aldossary; Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad; Bassam Al-Fatly; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa; Maryam Alharrasi; Abid Ali; Mohammed Usman Ali; Rafat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Waad Ali; Akram Al-Ibraheem; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Wael Almahmeed; Sabah Al-Marwani; Mahmoud A Alomari; Jordi Alonso; Jaber S Alqahtani; Rajaa M Mohammad Al-Raddadi; Ahmad Alrawashdeh; Mohammed A Alsabri; Najim Z Alshahrani; Zaid Altaany; Awais Altaf; Alaa B Al-Tammemi; Diala Altwalbeh; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hassan Alwafi; Mohammad Al-Wardat; Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi; Hany Aly; Safwat Aly; Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya; Karem H Alzoubi; Walid Adnan Al-Zyoud; Reza Amani; Prince M Amegbor; Tewodros Getnet Amera; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Alireza Amindarolzarbi; Sohrab Amiri; Hubert Amu; Dickson A Amugsi; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Dhanalakshmi Angappan; Abhishek Anil; Mohammed Tahir Tahir Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Rockson Ansong; Saeid Anvari; Saleha Anwar; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel Anyabolo; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Geminn Louis Carace Apostol; Francis Appiah; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Razman Arabzadeh Bahri; Mosab Arafat; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Ali Ardekani; Demelash Areda; Brhane Berhe Aregawi; Getnet Mesfin Aregu; Olatunde Aremu; Hidayat Arifin; Johan Ärnlöv; Anton A Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Umesh Raj Aryal; Zahra Aryan; Akram M Asbeutah; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Mulu Tiruneh Asemu; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Mubarek Yesse Ashemo; Tahira Ashraf; Armin Aslani; Haftu Asmerom Asmerom; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Abolfazl Avan; Hamzeh Awad; Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe; Lemessa Assefa A Ayana; Setognal Birara Aychiluhm; Amdehiwot A Aynalem; Zewdu Bishaw Aynalem; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Shahkaar Aziz; Ahmed Y Azzam; Abraham Samuel Babu; Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Pegah Bahrami Taghanaki; Saeed Bahramian; Ruhai Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Abdulaziz T Bako; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Kiran Bam; Maciej Banach; Morteza Banakar; Soham Bandyopadhyay; Palash Chandra Banik; Kannu Bansal; Yanping Bao; Miguel A Barboza; Mainak Bardhan; Noel C Barengo; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Lingkan Barua; Azadeh Bashiri; Hameed Akande Bashiru; Afisu Basiru; Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan; Sanjay Basu; Saurav Basu; Kavita Batra; Ahmet Begde; Babak Behnam; Amir Hossein Behnoush; Melesse B Y Belayneh; Michael Belingheri; Umar Muhammad Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Fentaw Tadese Berhe; Amiel Nazer C Bermudez; Habtamu B B Beyene; Kebede A Beyene; Devidas S Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Vivek Bhat; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Jasvinder Singh Singh Bhatti; Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan; Subarna Bhusal; Boris Bikbov; Cem Bilgin; Antonio Biondi; Keralem Anteneh Bishaw; Atanu Biswas; Bijit Biswas; Trupti Bodhare; Eyob Ketema Bogale; Archith Boloor; Milad Bonakdar Hashemi; Aime Bonny; Berrak Bora Basara; Hamed Borhany; Samuel Adolf Bosoka; Souad Bouaoud; Abdelhakim Bouyahya; Edward J Boyko; Marija M Bozic; Dejana Braithwaite; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Gabrielle Britton; Andre R Brunoni; Dana Bryazka; Raffaele Bugiardini; Lemma N Bulto; Katrin Burkart; Yasser Bustanji; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Luciana Aparecida Campos; Ismael R Campos-Nonato; Fan Cao; Angelo Capodici; Rosario Cárdenas; Sinclair Carr; Giulia Carreras; Andre F Carvalho; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Alberico L Catapano; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Luca Cegolon; Francieli Cembranel; Edina Cenko; Ester Cerin; Joshua Chadwick; Chiranjib Chakraborty; Sandip Chakraborty; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Rama Mohan Chandika; Eeshwar K Chandrasekar; Gashaw Sisay Chanie; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Anis Ahmad Chaudhary; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Haowei Chen; Mingling Chen; Simiao Chen; Gerald Chi; Fatemeh Chichagi; Ritesh Chimoriya; Patrick R Ching; Abdulaal Chitheer; So Mi Jemma Cho; Dong-Woo Choi; Bryan Chong; Chean Lin Chong; Hitesh Chopra; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Rahul Choudhary; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Zinhle Cindi; Iolanda Cioffi; Rebecca M Cogen; Alyssa Columbus; Simona Costanzo; Rosa A S Couto; Michael H Criqui; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández; Alanna Gomes da Silva; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Koustuv Dalal; Lachlan L Dalli; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Amira Hamed Darwish; Saswati Das; Mohsen Dashti; Mohadese Dashtkoohi; Mohammad Dashtkoohi; Maedeh Dastmardi; 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Hamed Haghi-Aminjan; Dariush Haghmorad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Aram Halimi; Nadia M Hamdy; Samer Hamidi; Erin B Hamilton; Asif Hanif; Nasrin Hanifi; Graeme J Hankey; Md Abdul Hannan; Zaim Anan Haq; Arief Hargono; Netanja I Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Eka Mishbahatul Marah Has; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Ikramul Hasan; Md Saquib Hasnain; Ikrama Hassan; Mahgol Sadat Hassan Zadeh Tabatabaei; Johannes Haubold; Rasmus J Havmoeller; Simon I Hay; Youssef Hbid; Jeffrey J Hebert; Omar E Hegazi; Mohammad Heidari; Mehdi Hemmati; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Yuta Hiraike; Nguyen Quoc Hoan; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Mahbub Hossain; Hassan Hosseinzadeh; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Ahmad Hosseinzadeh Adli; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Ben Hu; Chengxi Hu; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Salman Hussain; Le Duc Huy; Hong-Han Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Adalia Ikiroma; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mohammad Tarique Imam; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Muhammad Iqhrammullah; Arnaud Iradukunda; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Md Rabiul Islam; Faisal Ismail; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Chidozie Declan CD Iwu; Vinothini J; Jalil Jaafari; Louis Jacob; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Haitham Jahrami; Akhil Jain; Nityanand Jain; Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun; Abhishek Jaiswal; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Reza Jalilzadeh Yengejeh; Balamurugan Janakiraman; Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Sun Ha Jee; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Mihretu Jegnie; Alelign Tasew Jema; Bijay Mukesh Jeswani; Angeline Jeyakumar; Anil K Jha; Ravi Prakash Jha; Zixiang Ji; Heng Jiang; Shuai Jin; Yingzhao Jin; Mohammad Jokar; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Jobinse Jose; Nitin Joseph; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Md Awal Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Rizwan Kalani; Sanjay Kalra; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Arun Kamireddy; Haidong Kan; Mona Kanaan; Himal Kandel; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi; Rami S Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Paschalis Karakasis; Ibraheem M Karaye; André Karch; Hanie Karimi; Salah Eddin Karimi; Yeganeh Karimi; Arman Karimi Behnagh; Prabin Karki; Hengameh Kasraei; Joonas H Kauppila; Harkiran Kaur; Neda Kaydi; Gbenga A Kayode; Foad Kazemi; Sina Kazemian; Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Inn Kynn Khaing; Himanshu Khajuria; Amirmohammad Khalaji; Nauman Khalid; Anees Ahmed Khalil; Asaduzzaman Khan; Fayaz Khan; M Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Mohammad Jobair Khan; Moien AB Khan; Yusra H Khan; Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi; Khaled Khatab; Haitham Khatatbeh; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Sorour Khateri; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Feriha Fatima Khidri; Manoj Khokhar; Atulya Aman Khosla; Majid Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Saeid Kian; Kwanghyun Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Kamrun Nahar Koly; Farzad Kompani; Shivakumar KM Marulasiddaiah Kondlahalli; Miikka Korja; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Oleksii Korzh; Soewarta Kosen; Karel Kostev; Nikhil Kothari; Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Kewal Krishan; Varun Krishna; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Bindu Krishnan; Jera Kruja; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Md Abdul Kuddus; Mohammed Kuddus; Nuworza Kugbey; Mukhtar Kulimbet; Vishnutheertha Kulkarni; Akshay Kumar; Ashish Kumar; Dewesh Kumar; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Rakesh Kumar; Senthil Kumaran D; Amartya Kundu; Satyajit Kundu; Setor K Kunutsor; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; L V Simhachalam Kutikuppala; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Ville Kytö; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Chandrakant Lahariya; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Tea Lallukka; Judit Lám; Iván Landires; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Kaveh Latifinaibin; Paolo Lauriola; Pablo M Lavados; Basira Kankia Lawal; Long Khanh Dao Le; Nhi Huu Hanh Le; Thao Thi Thu Le; Trang Diep Thanh Le; Paul H Lee; Seung Won Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Ming-Chieh Li; Wei Li; Xiaopan Li; Yichong Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S Lim; John C Lin; Daniel Lindholm; Shai Linn; Gang Liu; Runben Liu; Shuke Liu; Xiaofeng Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Erand Llanaj; Chun-Han Lo; Warren David Lo; Valerie Lohner; José Francisco López-Gil; László Lorenzovici; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A Lotufo; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Lisha Luo; Jay B Lusk; Zheng Feei Ma; Monika Machoy; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ralph Maddison; Elham Mahmoudi; Golnaz Mahmoudvand; Omar M Makram; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Kashish Malhotra; Ahmad Azam Malik; Iram Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Yosef Manla; Mohammad Hadi Mansouri; Pejman Mansouri; Vahid Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Emmanuel Manu; Hamid Reza Marateb; Abdoljalal Marjani; Daniela Martini; Santi Martini; Miquel Martorell; Sharmeen Maryam; Roy Rillera Marzo; Awoke Masrie; Yasith Mathangasinghe; Pallab K Maulik; Mahsa Mayeli; Mohsen Mazidi; Martin McKee; Steven M McPhail; Enkeleint A Mechili; Asim Mehmood; Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad; 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Background: Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990–2021. Methods: We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6–7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8–11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8–171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0–6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0–99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7–13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4–67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3–28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7–6·0) of incident strokes. There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4–117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose (32·1% [26·7–38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7–35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8–34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5–11·6]), lead exposure (6·5% [4·5–11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5–10·5]). Interpretation: Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Joseph L. Ward; Peter S Azzopardi; Kate Louise Francis; John S Santelli; Vegard Skirbekk; Susan M Sawyer; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Ali H Mokdad; Simon I Hay; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R M Abrigo; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Abdelrahman I Abushouk; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M Advani; Khashayar Afshari; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Anwar E Ahmed; Budi Aji; Blessing Akombi-Inyang; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Samar Al-Hajj; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A Almasri; Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Saeed Amini; Arya Aminorroaya; Arianna Maever L Amit; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Fereshteh Ansari; Iman Ansari; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Johan Ärnlöv; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A Asadi-Pooya; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Elvis Korku Avenyo; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Shankar M Bakkannavar; MacIej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Miguel A Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Arielle Wilder Bell; Michelle L Bell; Corina Benjet; Isabela M Bensenor; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Tesega Tesega Mengistu Birhanu; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Rohan Borschmann; Soufiane Boufous; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Gabrielle B Britton; Richard A Burns; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M Cicuttini; Traian Vasile Constantin; Vera Marisa Costa; Saad M A Dahlawi; Haijiang Dai; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Assefa Desalew; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Alireza Didarloo; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Chirag P Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Kerrie E Doyle; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Sanam Ebtehaj; David Edvardsson; Maha El Tantawi; Islam Y Elgendy; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Sadaf Esteghamati; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Valery L Feigin; Tomas Y Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L Fisher; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Teshome Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Leake Gebremeskel; Assefa Ayalew Gebreslassie; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Mahaveer Golechha; Srinivas Goli; Philimon N Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Michal Grivna; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J Hall; Randah R Hamadeh; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hung Chak Ho; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Tanvir M Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Nirun Intarut; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q Ivers; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S Ji; Jost B Jonas; Kelly M Jones; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Petur B Juliusson; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Andr Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Supreet Kaur; Gbenga A Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T Khoja; Christian Kieling; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Ali Koolivand; Soewarta Kosen; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S Lassi; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Bingyu Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A Lotufo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ralph Maddison; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mokhtar Mahdavi Mahdavi; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Gabriel Martinez; Jose Martinez-Raga; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Amanda J Mason-Jones; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K Maulik; John J McGrath; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Fereshteh Mehri; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Babak Moazen; Dara K Mohammad; Shadieh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Noushin Mohammadifard; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Moses K Muriithi; Christopher J L Murray; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Jing Nie; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Muktar Omer Omer; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Adrian Otoiu; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Carlo Irwin Able Panelo; Eun-Kee Park; Scott B Patten; Amy E Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K Peprah; Jeevan Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R Phillips; Michael A Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Akram Pourshams; Sergio I Prada; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Hasan Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Jennifer Rickard; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gregory A Roth; Enrico Rubagotti; Susan Fred Rumisha; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Arash Sarveazad; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Deepak Saxena; Sonia Saxena; Silvia Schiavolin; David C Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Saeed Shakiba; MohammadBagher Shamsi; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; B Suresh Kumar Shetty; Peilin Shi; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Jasvinder A Singh; Virendra Singh; Abiy H Sinke; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Helen Slater; Emma U R Smith; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Eugene Sobngwi; Amin Soheili; Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N Soyiri; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Dan J Stein; Mark A Stokes; Agus Sudaryanto; Iyad Sultan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Amir Taherkhani; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Md Ismail Tareque; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nihal Thomas; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara S Travillian; Alexander C Tsai; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Riaz Uddin; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Paul J Villeneuve; Francesco S Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Theo Vos; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yafeng Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Ai-Min Wu; Chenkai Wu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Deniz Yuce; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hadi Zarafshan; Ahmad Zarei; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Cong Zhu; George C Patton; Russell M Viner
Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2016) Haidong Wang; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Matthew M Coates; Megan Coggeshall; Lalit Dandona; Khassoum Diallo; Elisabeth Barboza Franca; Maya Fraser; Nancy Fullman; Peter W Gething; Simon I Hay; Yohannes Kinfu; Maaya Kita; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Heidi J Larson; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Stephen S Lim; Margaret Lind; Alan D Lopez; Rafael Lozano; George A Mensah; Joseph B Mikesell; Ali H Mokdad; Meghan D Mooney; Mohsen Naghavi; Grant Nguyen; Ivo Rakovac; Joshua A Salomon; Naris Silpakit; Amber Sligar; Reed J D Sorensen; Theo Vos; Jun Zhu; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Kaja M Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M Abdulle; Semaw Ferede Abera; Victor Aboyans; Biju Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Tom Achoki; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Ademola Lukman Adelekan; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Arnav Agarwal; Oluremi N Ajala; Tomi F Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Khurshid Alam; Noore K M Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Robert William Aldridge; Miguel Angel Alegretti; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Raghib Ali; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Elena Alvarez Martin; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Emmanuel A Ameh; Walid Ammar; Stephen Marc Amrock; Hjalte H Andersen; Gregory M Anderson; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Suleman Atique; Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Bolanle F Banigbe; Aleksandra Barac; Ryan M Barber; Suzanne L Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Tigist Assefa Bayou; Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Tolesa Bekele; Michelle L Bell; Aminu K Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabé; Balem Demtsu Betsu; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Samir Bhatt; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Boris Bikbov; Sait Mentes Birlik; Donal Bisanzio; Espen Bjertness; Jed D Blore; Rupert R A Bourne; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Alexandria Brown; Geoffrey Colin Buckle; Michael Burch; Zahid A Butt; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano; Rosario Cárdenas; David O Carpenter; Juan Jesus Carrero; Austin Carter; Daniel C Casey; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ruben Estanislao Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly Cercy; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G Ciobanu; Samantha M Colquhoun; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Solomon Abrha Damtew; Hadi Danawi; Rakhi Dandona; José Das Neves; Adrian C Davis; Pieter de Jager; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C Des Jarlais; Gabrielle A Deveber; Samath D Dharmaratne; Preet K Dhillon; Eric L Ding; Pratik Pinal Doshi; Kerrie E Doyle; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal Elyazar; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Talha A Farid; Carla Sofia E Sa Farinha; André Faro; Maryam S Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Joao C Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Joseph R A Fitchett; Nataliya Foigt; Richard C Franklin; Joseph Friedman; Thomas Fürst; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Parthasarathi Ganguly; Teshome Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Alemseged Aregay Gebru; Johanna M Geleijnse; Bradford D Gessner; Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Hebe N Gouda; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Demewoz Haile; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Jamie Hancock; Alexis J Handal; Graeme J Hankey; Hilda L Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Kimani M Harun; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J Hay; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Hans W Hoek; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Peter J Hotez; Damian G Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Cheng Huang; John J Huang; Hsiang Huang; Laetitia Huiart; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Bulat T Idrisov; Kaire Innos; Kathryn H Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Sun Ha Jee; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Vivekanand Jha; Guohong Jiang; Ying Jiang; Tariku Jibat; Ye Jin; Jost B Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ritul Kamal; Haidong Kan; Gagandeep Kang; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Amir Kasaeian; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda; Konstantin Kazanjan; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Andrew Haddon Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Abdur Rahman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Irma Khonelidze; Jagdish Khubchandani; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Niranjan Kissoon; Miia Kivipelto; Luke D Knibbs; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A Kudom; G. Anil Kumar; Michael J Kutz; Hmwe H Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Jennifer O Lam; Van C Lansingh; Anders Larsson; James Leigh; Ricky Leung; Yichong Li; Yongmei Li; M Patrice Lindsay; Patrick Y Liu; Shiwei Liu; Belinda K Lloyd; Warren D Lo; Giancarlo Logroscino; Nicola Low; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A Lyons; Stefan Ma; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahdi Mahdavi; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Chabila C Mapoma; Wagner Marcenes; Jose Martinez-Raga; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; Felix Masiye; John J McGrath; Peter A Meaney; Alem Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Alemayehu B Mekonnen; Yohannes Adama Melaku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A Memish; Walter Mendoza; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Francis Apolinary Mhimbira; Ted R Miller; Edward J Mills; Mojde Mirarefin; Awoke Misganaw; Charles N Mock; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Alireza Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez; Marcella Montico; Ami R Moore; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Lidia Morawska; Rintaro Mori; Ulrich O Mueller; Georgina A V Murphy; Srinivas Murthy; Jean B Nachega; Aliya Naheed; Kovin S Naidoo; Luigi Naldi; Devina Nand; Vinay Nangia; Subas Neupane; Charles R Newton; John N Newton; Marie Ng; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Peter Nguhiu; Quyen Le Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete; Ole F Norheim; Rosana E Norman; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Foluke Adetola Ojelabi; Pedro R Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; P.A. Mahesh; Eun-Kee Park; Hye-Youn Park; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Angel J Paternina Caicedo; Scott B Patten; João Mário Pedro; David M Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Daniel Pope; Svetlana Popova; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Rynaz H S Rabiee; Anwar Rafay; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Murugesan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja Rao; Amany H Refaat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Serge Resnikoff; Alex Reynolds; David Rojas-Rueda; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A Roth; Ambuj Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Rajesh Sagar; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Juan R Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S Santos; João Vasco Santos; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Edson E Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Kevin N Sheth; Kenji Shibuya; Hwashin Hyun Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shuie; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jonathan Silverberg; Edgar P Simard; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Joan B Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Luciano A Sposato; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Bruno F Sunguya; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L Sykes; Cassandra E I Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Bineyam Taye; Bemnet Amare Tedla; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Tesfaye Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kiran Thapa; Alan J Thomson; Andrew L Thorne-Lyman; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Bach Xuan Tran; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene; Abera Kenay Tura; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N Ukwaja; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Raj Kumar Verma; Francesco S Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Linhong Wang; Yanping Wang; Scott Weichenthal; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G Weintraub; Daniel J Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Tissa Wijeratne; Thomas Neil Williams; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A Wolfe; Ingrid Wolfe; Sungho Won; Mamo Wubshet; Qingyang Xiao; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Pengpeng Ye; Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Hajo Zeeb; Hao Zhang; Yong Zhao; Yingfeng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.
Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Natalie C Galles; Patrick Y Liu; Rachel L Updike; Nancy Fullman; Jason Nguyen; Sam Rolfe; Alyssa N Sbarra; Megan F Schipp; Ashley Marks; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Kaja M Abbas; Sumra Wajid Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Maryam Adabi; Abdu A Adamu; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M Advani; Saira Afzal; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Yonas Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Luciana Albano; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Adnan Ansar; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Judie Arulappan; Asma Tahir Awan; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y Azzam; Darshan B B; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Simachew Animen Bante; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Quique Bassat; Narantuya Bayarmagnai; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Archith Boloor; Dejana Braithwaite; Danilo Buonsenso; Zahid A Butt; Paulo Camargos; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meseret Derbew Molla; Behailu Tariku Derseh; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Bassey Edem; Hisham Atan Edinur; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Jawad Fares; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Berhanu Elfu Feleke; Tomas Y Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; João C Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Mark Rohit Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Teshome Gebre; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Berhe Gebremichael; Bradford D Gessner; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Houman Goudarzi; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Yuming Guo; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Emily Haeuser; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Mohamed H Hassanein; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Sumant Inamdar; Usman Iqbal; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Zul Kamal; Stanley M Kamande; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Getinet Kassahun; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Patrick DMC Katoto; Bayew Kelkay; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Ibrahim A Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Maseer Adnan Khan; Moien AB Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Vaman Kulkarni; Avinash Kumar; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S Lassi; Hankil Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Stany W Lobo; Platon D Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C Matthews; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; George J Milne; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohamed; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Archisman Mohapatra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E Moore; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Sandra B Munro; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Mona Pathak; Rajan Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Marina Pinheiro; Majid Pirestani; Vivek Podder; Roman V Polibin; Richard Charles G Pollok; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Rebecca E Ramshaw; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Maria Rios-Blancas; Emma L B Rogowski; Luca Ronfani; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Anas M Saad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; A.M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Deepak Saxena; Sonia Saxena; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Pavanchand H Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Ker-Kan Tan; Yohannes Tekalegn; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Bhaskar Thakur; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Saif Ullah; Sana Ullah; Brigid Unim; Marco Vacante; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Bay Vo; Sebastian Vollmer; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yasir Waheed; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Alimuddin Zumla; Christopher J L Murray; Stephen S Lim; Jonathan F Mosser; J. Nguyen; A. Marks; C.J.L. Murray; S.S. Lim; R. Dandona; C.J.L. Murray; S.S. Lim; L. Ali; A. Ullah; B.E. Feleke; A. Elsharkawy; H. Abolhassani; S. Ahmad; T. Ahmad; S. Sabour; H. Ahmed; M.B. Ahmed; T. Ahmed Rashid; D. Saxena; B. Dagnew; M. Derbew Molla; A. Aklilu; Y. Alemayehu; L. Albano; A. Al-Eyadhy; M. Temsah; Y. Mohammad; R.K. Alhassan; M. Hostiuc; I. Negoi; I. Glăvan; A. Ansar; I. Antonazzo; P. Ferrara; A. Singh Mtech; J. Arabloo; A. Ghashghaee; A. Ghashghaee; A. Sarveazad; K.D. Artanti; J. Arulappan; M.A. Awoke; P. Rathi; Z. Babar; B. Gebremichael; M. Zamani; A. Barrow; A. Barrow; V. Kulkarni; D. Saxena; J. Shin; S. Misra; K. Bhattacharyya; S. Bibi; S. Ullah; A. Boloor; S. Sinha; D. Braithwaite; D. Braithwaite; D. Buonsenso; D. Buonsenso; G.W. Tsegaye; J. De Neve; P. Camargos; M. Pinheiro; R. Chakinala; S. Chatterjee; V. Chattu; V. Chattu; I. Bill; D. Chu; S. Chung; S. Chung; L. Dandona; R. Dandona; A. Ansar; G. Kumar; R. Desai; M. Dhimal; S. Eftekharzadeh; M. Elhadi; S. Enany; A.T. Olagunju; P.S. Faris; B. Tsegaye; I. Filip; F. Fischer; M.R. Francis; M.R. Francis; T. Fukumoto; X. Liu; A.M. Saad; S. Gaidhane; T. Garg; Y. Tekalegn; S. Mohammed; T. Gebre; K. Ghadiri; K. Ghadiri; M. Ghafourifard; M. Moghadaszadeh; S. Gilani; S. Gilani; P.D. Lopukhov; M. Golechha; S.V. Gopalani; H. Goudarzi; M.B. Ahmed; H. Goudarzi; Y. Guo; S. Li; Y. Guo; V. Gupta; V.K. Gupta; R.A. Gutiérrez; A. Hargono Dr; S. Hassan; S. Hassan; G. Heidari; S. Islam; V. Hsieh; J. Huang; C. Zhong; A. Humayun; R. Hussain; A. Makki; J. Noubiap; U. Iqbal; S.N. Irvani; S. Islam; R. Kalhor; R. Kalhor; Z. Kamal; Z. Kamal; A. Karch; J. Khan; G. Kim; M. Kim; M. Kim; Y. Kim; S. Kosen; A. Kumar; A. Kwarteng; C. La Vecchia; I. Landires; V. Nuñez-Samudio; I. Landires; S. Lasrado; M. Levi; M. Levi; C.E. Moore; X. Liu; J. Sanabria; A. Thavamani; P.C. Matthews; J.C. Medina; J.C. Medina; W. Mendoza; R.G. Menezes; M.K. Mesregah; T. Mestrovic; M. Mohammadi; A. Mohammed; S. Mohammed; A. Mohapatra; M. 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Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2020) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; John Everett Mumford; Megan Knight; Celine M Barthelemy; Cristiana Abbafati; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R M Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Abdelrahman I Abushouk; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie Adelson; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M Advani; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Samuel B Albertson; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A Almasri; Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever L Amit; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Catherine M Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A Asadi-Pooya; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Getie Lake Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Peter S Azzopardi; Darshan B B; Ebrahim Babaee; Ashish D Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Simachew Animen Bante; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L Bell; Isabela M Bensenor; Adam E Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S Bernstein; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Moses John Bockarie; Somayeh Bohlouli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Srinivasa Rao Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Oliver J Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Andrew M Briggs; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Christopher R Cederroth; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Angela Y Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Ken Lee Chin; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T Chung; Liliana G Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Kelly Compton; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Saad M A Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jiregna Darega Gela; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Ilse N Dippenaar; Hoa Thi Do; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; David Edvardsson; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Islam Y Elgendy; Iqbal RF Elyazar; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Tamer Farag; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L Fisher; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; João M Furtado; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Emmanuela Gakidou; Natalie C Galles; Silvano Gallus; William M Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot; Leake G Gebremeskel; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K Gill; Themba G Ginindza; Mojgan Gitimoghaddam; Giorgia Giussani; Mustefa Glagn; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Salime Goharinezhad; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Teklemariam Gultie; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Randah R Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Chieh Han; Hannah Han; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J Hankey; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J Havmoeller; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Claudiu Herteliu; Thomas R Hird; Hung Chak Ho; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Nobuyuki Horita; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Tanvir M Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Jalil Jaafari; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Morteza Jafarinia; Deepa Jahagirdar; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Hosna Janjani; Tahereh Javaheri; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S Ji; Peng Jia; Yetunde O John-Akinola; Jost B Jonas; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Seyed M Karimi; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Gbenga A Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Saleh Khader; Mohammad Khammarnia; Maseer Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M Khater; Mona M Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Cameron J Kneib; Jonathan M Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Stefan Kohler; Jacek A Kopec; Anna V Korotkova; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Anirudh Kotlo; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Kris J Krohn; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Jeffrey V Lazarus; Jorge R Ledesma; Paul H Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Andrew T Leever; Kate E LeGrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Shanshan Li; Stephen S Lim; Lee-Ling Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Paulo A Lotufo; Alton Lu; Jianing Ma; Mohammed Madadin; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas; Shokofeh Maleki; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Claudia I Mastrogiacomo; Manu Raj Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Tuomo J Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Maryam Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Philip B Mitchell; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F Mosser; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Moses K Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Kiirithio N Ngari; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F Norheim; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Adrian Otoiu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T Olagunju; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Ahmed Omar Bali; Muktar Omer Omer; Kanyin L Ong; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Doris V V Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Sergej M Ostojic; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao. Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan; Mona Pathak; George C Patton; Sagun Paudel; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Spencer A Pease; Amy E Peden; Alyssa Pennini; Emmanuel K Peprah; Jeevan Pereira; David M Pigott; Thomas Pilgrim; Tessa M Pilz; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Reza Pourmirza Kalhori; Akram Pourshams; Sergio I Prada; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Vahid Rashedi; Goura Kishor Rath; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Christian Razo; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Nima Rezaei; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniel Cury Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Nicholas L S Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Enrico Rubagotti; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Ehsan Sadeghi; Yahya Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Marwa R Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Joshua Salomon; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Miloje Savic; Susan M Sawyer; Deepak Saxena; Alyssa N Sbarra; Lauren E Schaeffer; Silvia Schiavolin; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Fablina Sharara; Hamid Sharifi; David H Shaw; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; B Suresh Kumar Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Mark G Shrime; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Radoslaw Sierpinski; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Kyle E Simpson; Jasvinder A Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Emma U R Smith; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. 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Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2020) Joan B Soriano; Parkes J Kendrick; Katherine R Paulson; Vinay Gupta; Elissa M Abrams; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Shailesh M Advani; Anurag Agrawal; Elham Ahmadian; Fares Alahdab; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Josep M Antó; Jalal Arabloo; Seyyede Masoume Athari; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Nefsu Awoke; Alaa Badawi; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield; Robert S Bernstein; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Michael Brauer; Gene Bukhman; Zahid A Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Josip Car; Juan J Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Devasahayam J Christopher; Aaron J Cohen; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Ahmad Daryani; Barbora de Courten; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Rupak Desai; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Daniel Diaz; Abdel Douiri; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Aziz Eftekhari; Hajer Elkout; Aman Yesuf Endries; Ibtihal Fadhil; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; M.A. Garcia-Gordillo; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Richard F Gillum; Houman Goudarzi; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I Hay; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K Hole; Nobuyuki Horita; H Dean Hosgood; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amr A Jamal; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Jagdish Khubchandani; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Luke D Knibbs; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; G Anil Kumar; Qing Lan; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Carlo La Vecchia; Tham Thi Le; James Leigh; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Alan D Lopez; Paulo A Lotufo; Fabiana Madotto; Narayan B Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Abdullah A Mamun; Navid Manafi; Farzad Manafi; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Ritesh G Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Masoud Moradi; Ghobad Moradi; Lidia Morawska; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Mehdi Naderi; Mohsen Naghavi; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Molly R Nixon; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Eyal Oren; Justin R Ortiz; Mayowa O Owolabi; M. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Hai Quang Pham; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Hossein Poustchi; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Elias Merdassa Roro; Gholamreza Roshandel; Kristina E Rudd; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Saeed Safari; Komal Saleem; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Reza Shirkoohi; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Virendra Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Michael Soljak; Ranjani Somayaji; Moslem Soofi; Ireneous N Soyiri; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Jarnail Singh Thakur; Alemayehu Toma Toma; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Lorainne Tudor Car; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Job F M van Boven; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yousef Veisani; Francesco S Violante; Gregory R Wagner; Ronny Westerman; Charles D A Wolfe; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Zoubida Zaidi; Mohammad Zamani; Heather J Zar; Yunquan Zhang; Theo Vos
Background: Previous attempts to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases have focused only on specific disease conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we estimated the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality attributable to chronic respiratory diseases through an analysis of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) by GBD super-region, from 1990 to 2017, stratified by age and sex. Specific diseases analysed included asthma, COPD, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, pneumoconiosis, and other chronic respiratory diseases. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors (smoking, second-hand smoke, ambient particulate matter and ozone pollution, household air pollution from solid fuels, and occupational risks) to chronic respiratory disease-attributable DALYs. Findings: In 2017, 544·9 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 506·9–584·8) worldwide had a chronic respiratory disease, representing an increase of 39·8% compared with 1990. Chronic respiratory disease prevalence showed wide variability across GBD super-regions, with the highest prevalence among both males and females in high-income regions, and the lowest prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The age-sex-specific prevalence of each chronic respiratory disease in 2017 was also highly variable geographically. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of death in 2017 (7·0% [95% UI 6·8–7·2] of all deaths), behind cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases numbered 3 914 196 (95% UI 3 790 578–4 044 819) in 2017, an increase of 18·0% since 1990, while total DALYs increased by 13·3%. However, when accounting for ageing and population growth, declines were observed in age-standardised prevalence (14·3% decrease), age-standardised death rates (42·6%), and age-standardised DALY rates (38·2%). In males and females, most chronic respiratory disease-attributable deaths and DALYs were due to COPD. In regional analyses, mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases were greatest in south Asia and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, also across both sexes. Notably, although absolute prevalence was lower in south Asia than in most other super-regions, YLLs due to chronic respiratory diseases across the subcontinent were the highest in the world. Death rates due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis were greater than those due to pneumoconiosis in all super-regions. Smoking was the leading risk factor for chronic respiratory disease-related disability across all regions for men. Among women, household air pollution from solid fuels was the predominant risk factor for chronic respiratory diseases in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, while ambient particulate matter represented the leading risk factor in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, and in the Middle East and north Africa super-region. Interpretation: Our study shows that chronic respiratory diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but sharp declines in several age-standardised estimators since 1990. Premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases seems to be highest in regions with less-resourced health systems on a per-capita basis. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Quantifying risks and interventions that have affected the burden of diarrhoea among children younger than 5 years: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Christopher E Troeger; Ibrahim A Khalil; Brigette F Blacker; Molly H Biehl; Samuel B Albertson; Stephanie R M Zimsen; Puja C Rao; Degu Abate; Alireza Ahmadi; Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Suleman Atique; Euripide F G A Avokpaho; Samah Awad; Ashish Awasthi; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Quique Bassat; Neeraj Bedi; Derrick A Bennett; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Josip Car; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Devasahayam J Christopher; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Aniruddha Deshpande; Shirin Djalalinia; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Aman Yesuf Endries; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nancy Fullman; William M Gardner; Birhanu Geta; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C Goulart; Yuming Guo; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Chi Linh Hoang; Mihaela Hostiuc; Zakir Hussain; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Spencer L James; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; André Karch; Amir Kasaeian; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Adane Teshome Kefale; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T Khoja; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Sonali Kochhar; Soewarta Kosen; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Rakesh Lodha; Erlyn Rachelle King MacArayan; Marek Majdan; Abdullah A Mamun; H. Manguerra; Addisu Melese; Ziad A Memish; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E Moore; Jonathan F Mosser; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Srinivas Murthy; Ghulam Mustafa; Javad Nazari; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R Nixon; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; P.A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Maarten J Postma; Mostafa Qorbani; Reginald Quansah; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Luca Ronfani; Katherine Rosettie; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Saeed Safari; Zikria Saleem; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Monika Sawhney; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; David L Smith; Joan B Soriano; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Jeffrey D Stanaway; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Teklay G E Teklu; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Belay Tessema; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Rachel L Updike; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yousef Veisani; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Marcia Weaver; Kirsten E Wiens; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Ebrahim M Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Zoubida Zaidi; Heather J Zar; Afshin Zarghi; Stephen S Lim; Theo Vos; Ali H Mokdad; Christopher J L Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Simon I Hay; Robert C Reiner
Background: Many countries have shown marked declines in diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years. With this analysis, we provide updated results on diarrhoeal disease mortality among children younger than 5 years from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) and use the study's comparative risk assessment to quantify trends and effects of risk factors, interventions, and broader sociodemographic development on mortality changes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods: This analysis for GBD 2017 had three main components. Diarrhoea mortality was modelled using vital registration data, demographic surveillance data, and verbal autopsy data in a predictive, Bayesian, ensemble modelling tool; and the attribution of risk factors and interventions for diarrhoea were modelled in a counterfactual framework that combines modelled population-level prevalence of the exposure to each risk or intervention with the relative risk of diarrhoea given exposure to that factor. We assessed the relative and absolute change in diarrhoea mortality rate between 1990 and 2017, and used the change in risk factor exposure and sociodemographic status to explain differences in the trends of diarrhoea mortality among children younger than 5 years. Findings: Diarrhoea was responsible for an estimated 533 768 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 477 162–593 145) among children younger than 5 years globally in 2017, a rate of 78·4 deaths (70·1–87·1) per 100 000 children. The diarrhoea mortality rate ranged between countries by over 685 deaths per 100 000 children. Diarrhoea mortality per 100 000 globally decreased by 69·6% (63·1–74·6) between 1990 and 2017. Among the risk factors considered in this study, those responsible for the largest declines in the diarrhoea mortality rate were reduction in exposure to unsafe sanitation (13·3% decrease, 11·2–15·5), childhood wasting (9·9% decrease, 9·6–10·2), and low use of oral rehydration solution (6·9% decrease, 4·8–8·4). Interpretation: Diarrhoea mortality has declined substantially since 1990, although there are variations by country. Improvements in sociodemographic indicators might explain some of these trends, but changes in exposure to risk factors—particularly unsafe sanitation, childhood growth failure, and low use of oral rehydration solution—appear to be related to the relative and absolute rates of decline in diarrhoea mortality. Although the most effective interventions might vary by country or region, identifying and scaling up the interventions aimed at preventing and protecting against diarrhoea that have already reduced diarrhoea mortality could further avert many thousands of deaths due to this illness. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden in 204 countries and territories, 1990â€“2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Marissa B Reitsma; Parkes J Kendrick; Emad Ababneh; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; E.S. Abhilash; Derrick Bary Abila; Victor Aboyans; Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Shailesh M Advani; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Budi Aji; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Ziyad Al-Aly; Turki M Alanzi; Khalid F Alhabib; Liaqat Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; FranÃ§ois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A Anderson; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Benny Antony; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Nicholas D Arian; Monika Arora; Malke Asaad; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Getie Lake Aynalem; Samad Azari; Darshan B B; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried BÃ¤rnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Antonio Biondi; Setognal Birara; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Andre R Brunoni; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto CÃ¡mera; Josip Car; Rosario CÃ¡rdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Jung-Chen Chang; Simiao Chen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Massimo Cirillo; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Meseret Derbew Molla; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Kristina Edvardsson; Iffat Elbarazi; Maha El Tantawi; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Ibtihal Fadhil; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Carla Sofia e SÃ¡ Farinha; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Carlota Fernandez Prendes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Filippos Filippidis; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Franklin N Glozah; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C Goulart; Felix Greaves; Avirup Guha; Yuming Guo; Bhawna Gupta; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Vin Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Randah R Hamadeh; Graeme J Hankey; Arief Hargono; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Thomas R Hird; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Thomas Hsiao; Junjie Huang; Vincent C Iannucci; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jessica Y Islam; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Jalil Jaafari; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Sung-In Jang; Hosna Janjani; Shubha Jayaram; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Mikk JÃ¼risson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Salah Eddin Karimi; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Bayew Kelkay; Ryan David Kennedy; Abdullah T Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Mika KivimÃ¤ki; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Ben Lacey; Jennifer O Lam; IvÃ¡n Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Janni Leung; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Shai Linn; Wei Liu; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Alessandra Lugo; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Jose Martinez-Raga; Santi Martini; Manu Raj Mathur; Carlo Eduardo Medina-SolÃs; Suresh Mehata; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Sanjeev Misra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C Mullany; Christopher J L Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Sanjeev Nair; Mahdi Nalini; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Muhammad Naveed; Smitha Nayak; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sabina O Nduaguba; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Eyal Oren; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Ashok Pandey; Utsav Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Richard G Pestell; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A Piradov; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V Polibin; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priya Rathi; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Mavra A Riaz; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ambuj Roy; Bedanta Roy; Simona Sacco; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M Samy; Itamar S Santos; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Michael P Schaub; Maria InÃªs Schmidt; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Falk Schwendicke; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; Sadaf Ghajarieh Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Syed Mahboob Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S Shalash; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Kawkab Shishani; K.M. Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Roman Shrestha; Soraya Siabani; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; JoÃ£o Pedro Silva; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Freddy Sitas; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matiwos Soboka; Joan B Soriano; Ali Soroush; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Dan J Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Stefan Stortecky; Kurt Straif; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Johan SundstrÃ¶m; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Minale Tareke; Md Ismail Tareque; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Ales Tichopad; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Fotis Topouzis; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Nikolaos Tsilimparis; Hayley D Tymeson; Anayat Ullah; Saif Ullah; Brigid Unim; Rachel L Updike; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Constantine Vardavas; Patricia Varona PÃ©rez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Marina V Vetrova; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Kevin Welding; Andrea Werdecker; Joanna L Whisnant; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Srikanth Yandrapalli; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Yigizie Yeshaw; Mohammed Zewdu Yimmer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Heather J Zar; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Luis Zavala-Arciniega; Jianrong Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Emmanuela Gakidou; J.A. Anderson; R. Feldman; V. Gupta; C.J.L. Murray; K. Burkart; R. Dandona; V. Gupta; C.J.L. Murray; E. Gakidou; E. Oren; V. Jain; S. Salehi; S. Siabani; R.G. Menezes; S.M. Alif; Y. Guo; S. Li; J. Arabloo; H. Zandian; N. Kumar; A. Ghashghaee; A. Ghashghaee; P. Allebeck; J.J. Carrero; S. Amini; R. Moradzadeh; M. Zamanian; J. Nazari; G.H. Amul; R. Ancuceanu; E.A. Faraon; B. Antony; A. Singh; D. Anvari; M. Arora; M.R. Mathur; G. Kumar; M. Arora; M. Asaad; M. Ausloos; M. Ausloos; C. Herteliu; A. Pana; G.L. Aynalem; M. Derbew Molla; Y. Yeshaw; P. Rathi; M.A. Riaz Mcom; S. Chen; S. Mohammed; S. Basu; J. Car; F. Greaves; D. Kusuma; M. Behzadifar; B. Lacey; I.S. Santos; I.S. Santos; N. Bhardwaj; S. Misra; K. Bhattacharyya; S. Bibi; S. Ullah; S. Birara; D. Braithwaite; S. Basu; D. Braithwaite; J. Car; G. Gorini; D. Chu; S. Chung; S. Chung; M. Cirillo; J.P. Silva; M. Pinheiro; A. Guha; L. Dandona; L. Dandona; G.W. Tsegaye; H.T. Do; H.T. Do; A. Douiri; D. Lee; M.I. Schmidt; A.W. Eagan; I. Fadhil; C.S.E. Farinha; M. Nalini; T. Zahirian Moghadam; H. Zandian; E.V. Gnedovskaya; I. Filip; F. Fischer; A.M. Gaidhane; A. Naqvi; M. Moghadaszadeh; S. Pirouzpanah; A. Ghajar; S. Giampaoli; S. Hostiuc; P.S. Gill; M. Golechha; S.V. Gopalani; H. Goudarzi; H. Goudarzi; F. Greaves; A. Guha; Y. Guo; B. Gupta; R. Gupta; R. Gupta; R. Gupta; T. Gupta; O. Shafaat; S. Sheikhbahaei; K. Welding; M. Haider; A. Hargono Dr; S. Martini; S.N. Irvani; G. Heidari; C. Herteliu; T.R. Hird; S. Hostiuc; J. Huang; C. Zhong; F. Islami; H. Iso; M. Iwagami; M. Iwagami; S. Shivalli; S. Jang; B. Mansouri; M. Nalini; S. Siabani; P. Jeemon; T. Joo; R.D. Kennedy; J. Khubchandani; G. Kim; E. Park; B. Naghshtabrizi; Y. Kim; S. Kosen; A. Koyanagi; O. Shafaat; A. Koyanagi; A.T. Olagunju; D. Kusuma; B. Lacey; J.O. Lam; I. Landires; I. Landires; I. Landires; S. Lasrado; Y. Lee; H. Lin; W. Liu; J. Zhang; P.D. Lopukhov; D.C. Malta; N. Manjunatha; S. Martini; M.R. Mathur; S. Mehata; W. Mendoza; S. Mohammed; A.E. Schutte; S.D. Morrison; S. Mubarik; C. Yu; S. Nair; S. Nair; S. Nair; A. Naqvi; S. Neupane Kandel; C.T. Nguyen; H.L.T. Nguyen; S.H. Nguyen; T.H. Nguyen; H.J. Zar; J. Noubiap; C. Nowak; I. Oh; E. Oren; N. Otstavnov; M P A; A. Pana; A. Pandey; A. Pandey; U. Parekh; S. Pawar; A. Rahman; M. Rahman; M. Rahman; M. Rahman; P. Ram; L. Roever; A. Roy; B. Roy; S. Sacco; M. Samaei; A.S. Shalash; M. Sawhney; M. Saylan; I.J.C. Schneider; F. Schwendicke; A. Seidu Mphil; M. Shigematsu; M. Shigematsu; D.N. Sinha; D.N. Sinha; S. Stortecky; K. Straif; K. Straif; G. Sulo; G. Sulo; J.P. Tripathy; N. Tsilimparis; C. Vardavas; M.V. Vetrova; B. Vo; Y. Waheed; A. Werdecker; S. Yandrapalli; M.S. Zaman; Y.H. Zuniga
Background: Ending the global tobacco epidemic is a defining challenge in global health. Timely and comprehensive estimates of the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden are needed to guide tobacco control efforts nationally and globally. Methods: We estimated the prevalence of smoking tobacco use and attributable disease burden for 204 countries and territories, by age and sex, from 1990 to 2019 as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. We modelled multiple smoking-related indicators from 3625 nationally representative surveys. We completed systematic reviews and did Bayesian meta-regressions for 36 causally linked health outcomes to estimate non-linear dose-response risk curves for current and former smokers. We used a direct estimation approach to estimate attributable burden, providing more comprehensive estimates of the health effects of smoking than previously available. Findings: Globally in 2019, 1·14 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·13–1·16) individuals were current smokers, who consumed 7·41 trillion (7·11–7·74) cigarette-equivalents of tobacco in 2019. Although prevalence of smoking had decreased significantly since 1990 among both males (27·5% [26·5–28·5] reduction) and females (37·7% [35·4–39·9] reduction) aged 15 years and older, population growth has led to a significant increase in the total number of smokers from 0·99 billion (0·98–1·00) in 1990. Globally in 2019, smoking tobacco use accounted for 7·69 million (7·16–8·20) deaths and 200 million (185–214) disability-adjusted life-years, and was the leading risk factor for death among males (20·2% [19·3–21·1] of male deaths). 6·68 million [86·9%] of 7·69 million deaths attributable to smoking tobacco use were among current smokers. Interpretation: In the absence of intervention, the annual toll of 7·69 million deaths and 200 million disability-adjusted life-years attributable to smoking will increase over the coming decades. Substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of smoking tobacco use has been observed in countries from all regions and at all stages of development, but a large implementation gap remains for tobacco control. Countries have a clear and urgent opportunity to pass strong, evidence-based policies to accelerate reductions in the prevalence of smoking and reap massive health benefits for their citizens. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Aniruddha Deshpande; Molly K Miller-Petrie; Kimberly B Johnson; A. Abdoli; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; S. Adinarayanan; E. Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; T.M. Alanzi; C. Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Arianna Maever L. Amit; N.H. Anber; R. Ancuceanu; Z. Andualem; F. Ansari; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; D. Anvari; S. Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; B.F. Arnold; Marcel Ausloos; Martin Amogre Ayanore; A. Badirzadeh; A.A. Baig; Maciej Banach; A.G. Baraki; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Mohsen Bayati; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; M.J. Bockarie; D. Bisanzio; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Jorge Cano; Felix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; C. Chavshin; Natalie Maria Cormier; Elizabeth A Cromwell; C.A. Schmidt; K.T. Kwong; G. Damiani; Rakhi Dandona; Lalit Dandona; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Aditya Prasad Dash; Kebede Deribe; B. Dessu; Meghnath Dhimal; M. Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; L. Earl; Maha El Tantawi; A. Faraj; N. Fattahi; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Yuming Guo; G.B. Hailu; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; H. Hassankhani; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; J. Hon; M.K. Hole; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Ayesha Humayun; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Ravi Prakash Jha; John S Ji; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; L.R. Kalankesh; R. Kalhor; B. Karami Matin; André Karch; S. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; A. Kazemi Karyani; Gbenga A. Kayode; A.G. Kelbore; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Rovshan Khalilov; Junaid Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M Khater; M. Khodayari; Yun Jin Kim; J.D. King; D.K. Kinyoki; N. Kianipour; G Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Van Charles Lansingh; Paul H Lee; Kate E LeGrand; Aubrey J Levine; Shanshan Li; S. Maleki; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; B.B. Massenburg; Benjamin K Mayala; W.B. Meitei; Walter Mendoza; D.T. Mengistu; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tomislav Mestrovic; K.M. Mihretie; A. Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Masoud Moradi; R. Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; S.D. Morrison; Jonathan F. Mosser; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Sandra B Munro; D. Mupfasoni; Saravanan Muthupandian; U.J. mwingira; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Ionut Negoi; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; T.H. Nguyen; Andrew T Olagunju; A. Omar Bali; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Frank B Osei; D. Pasupula; David M Pigott; S. Shirude; E. Hill; K.M. Donkers; Meghdad Pirsaheb; H. Pourjafar; Salman Rawaf; D.L. Rawaf; R. Rawassizadeh; A. Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; A. Rostami; S. Sabesan; Ehsan Sadeghi; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Abdallah M Samy; Benn Sartorius; Lauren E Schaeffer; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharafi; S. Soltani; H. Sharifi; K. Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; A. Soheili; A. Spotin; W.A. Stolk; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Roman Topor-Madry; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Y. Vasseghian; Francesco S Violante; N.V.S. Vinkeles Melchers; Tomohide Yamada; S. Yaya; V. Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; L. Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; M. Zamanian; A. Zangeneh; Yunquan Zhang; Z. Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I Hay; Robert C Reiner
Background: Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease that can cause permanent disability through disruption of the lymphatic system. This disease is caused by parasitic filarial worms that are transmitted by mosquitos. Mass drug administration (MDA) of antihelmintics is recommended by WHO to eliminate lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem. This study aims to produce the first geospatial estimates of the global prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection over time, to quantify progress towards elimination, and to identify geographical variation in distribution of infection. Methods: A global dataset of georeferenced surveyed locations was used to model annual 2000–18 lymphatic filariasis prevalence for 73 current or previously endemic countries. We applied Bayesian model-based geostatistics and time series methods to generate spatially continuous estimates of global all-age 2000–18 prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection mapped at a resolution of 5 km2 and aggregated to estimate total number of individuals infected. Findings: We used 14 927 datapoints to fit the geospatial models. An estimated 199 million total individuals (95% uncertainty interval 174–234 million) worldwide were infected with lymphatic filariasis in 2000, with totals for WHO regions ranging from 3·1 million (1·6–5·7 million) in the region of the Americas to 107 million (91–134 million) in the South-East Asia region. By 2018, an estimated 51 million individuals (43–63 million) were infected. Broad declines in prevalence are observed globally, but focal areas in Africa and southeast Asia remain less likely to have attained infection prevalence thresholds proposed to achieve local elimination. Interpretation: Although the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis infection has declined since 2000, MDA is still necessary across large populations in Africa and Asia. Our mapped estimates can be used to identify areas where the probability of meeting infection thresholds is low, and when coupled with large uncertainty in the predictions, indicate additional data collection or intervention might be warranted before MDA programmes cease. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Farin Kamangar; Dariush Nasrollahzadeh; Saeid Safiri; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Christina Fitzmaurice; Kevin S Ikuta; Catherine Bisignano; Farhad Islami; Gholamreza Roshandel; Stephen S Lim; Hassan Abolhassani; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Shailesh M Advani; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Vahid Alipour; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Abdulaziz M Almulhim; Nahla Hamed Anber; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Alaa Badawi; Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Antonio Biondi; Tone Bjørge; Antonio Maria Borzì; Cristina Bosetti; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Clara Castro; Dinh-Toi Chu; Vera Marisa Costa; Baye Dagnew; Jiregna Darega Gela; Ahmad Daryani; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Iffat Elbarazi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Arash Etemadi; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Mohamed M Gad; Silvano Gallus; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Begashaw Melaku Gebresillassie; Fatemeh Ghasemi-Kebria; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Mahaveer Golechha; Giuseppe Gorini; Rahul Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; James D Harvey; Maryam Hashemian; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H Dean Hosgood; Mowafa Househ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Charvi Jain; Spencer L James; Sun Ha Jee; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Ali Kabir; Amir Kasaeian; Mesfin Wudu Kassaw; Supreet Kaur; Andre Pascal Kengne; Esma Kerboua; Yousef Saleh Khader; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Abdullah T Khoja; Jonathan M Kocarnik; Hamidreza Komaki; Vivek Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Savita Lasrado; Bingyu Li; Alan D Lopez; Azeem Majeed; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Manu Raj Mathur; Varshil Mehta; Dhruv Mehta; Walter Mendoza; Prasanna Mithra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Delaram Moosavi; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Gurudatta Naik; Ionut Negoi; Haruna Asura Nggada; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Molly R Nixon; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Shanti Patel; Mona Pathak; Hai Quang Pham; Akram Pourshams; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Goura Kishor Rath; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Nima Rezaei; Elias Merdassa Roro; Anas M Saad; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M Samy; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Mario Sekerija; Feng Sha; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Reza Shirkoohi; Sudeep K Siddappa Malleshappa; Jasvinder A Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Catalin-Gabriel Smarandache; Sergey Soshnikov; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Bhaskar Thakur; Eugenio Traini; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Yousef Veisani; Isidora S Vujcic; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Rixing Xu; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Deniz Yuce; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Reza Malekzadeh; Mohsen Naghavi
Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data from vital registration systems, vital registration-samples, verbal autopsy records, and cancer registries, combined with relevant modelling, to estimate the mortality, incidence, and burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were estimated and fed into a Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) including risk factors. MIRs were used for mortality and non-fatal modelling. Estimates of DALYs attributable to the main risk factors of oesophageal cancer available in GBD were also calculated. The proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancers was extracted by use of publicly available data, and its variation was examined against SDI, the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, and available risk factors in GBD that are specific for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (eg, unimproved water source and indoor air pollution) and for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease). Findings There were 473 000 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 459 000-485 000) new cases of oesophageal cancer and 436 000 (425 000-448 000) deaths due to oesophageal cancer in 2017. Age-standardised incidence was 5.9 (5.7-6.1) per 100 000 population and age-standardised mortality was 5.5 (5.3-5.6) per 100 000. Oesophageal cancer caused 9.78 million (9.53-10.03) DALYs, with an age-standardised rate of 120 (117-123) per 100 000 population. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised incidence decreased by 22.0% (18.6-25.2), mortality decreased by 29.0% (25.8-32.0), and DALYs decreased by 33.4% (30.4-36.1) globally. However, as a result of population growth and ageing, the total number of new cases increased by 52.3% (45.9-58.9), from 310 000 (300 000-322 000) to 473 000 (459 000-485 000); the number of deaths increased by 40.0% (34.1-46.3), from 311 000 (301 000-323 000) to 436 000 (425 000-448 000); and total DALYs increased by 27.4% (22.1-33.1), from 7.68 million (7.42-7.97) to 9.78 million (9.53-10.03). At the national level, China had the highest number of incident cases (235 000 [223 000-246 000]), deaths (213 000 [203 000-223 000]), and DALYs (4.46 million [4.25-4.69]) in 2017. The highest national-level agestandardised incidence rates in 2017 were observed in Malawi (23.0 [19.4-26.5] per 100 000 population) and Mongolia (18.5 [16.4-20.8] per 100 000). In 2017, age-standardised incidence was 2.7 times higher, mortality 2.9 times higher, and DALYs 3.0 times higher in males than in females. In 2017, a substantial proportion of oesophageal cancer DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (39.0% [35.5-42.2]), alcohol consumption (33.8% [27.3-39.9]), high BMI (19.5% [6.3-36.0]), a diet low in fruits (19.1% [4.2-34.6]), and use of chewing tobacco (7.5% [5.2-9.6]). Countries with a low SDI and HAQ Index and high levels of indoor air pollution had a higher proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancer cases than did countries with a high SDI and HAQ Index and with low levels of indoor air pollution. Interpretation Despite reductions in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates, oesophageal cancer remains a major cause of cancer mortality and burden across the world. Oesophageal cancer is a highly fatal disease, requiring increased primary prevention efforts and, possibly, screening in some high-risk areas. Substantial variation exists in age-standardised incidence rates across regions and countries, for reasons that are unclear. © 2020 The Author(s).