Browsing by Author "Amanda E. Smith"

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Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Emma Nichols; Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Stein Emil Vollset; Kai Fukutaki; Julian Chalek; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Tayyaba Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Hubert Amu; Iman Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Getinet Ayano; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Atif Amin Baig; Anthony Barnett; Amadou Barrow; Bernhard T. Baune; Yannick Béjot; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Atanu Biswas; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Carol Brayne; Hermann Brenner; Katrin Burkart; Richard A. Burns; Luis Alberto Cámera; Chao Cao; Felix Carvalho; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Prachi P. Chavan; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh-Toi Chu; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A.S. Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Abdel Douiri; David Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Jawad Fares; Andre Faro; Umar Farooque; Valery L. Feigin; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Howard Fillit; Florian Fischer; Shilpa Gaidhane; Lucia Galluzzo; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Alessandro Gialluisi; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glavan; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; M. Tasdik Hasan; Amr Hassan; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Rizwan Kalani; Amit Kandel; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Gizat M. Kassie; Pedram Keshavarz; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Walter J. Koroshetz; Ai Koyanagi; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Yuewei Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Ahmad Azam Malik; João Massano; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Bahram Mohajer; Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim; Yousef Mohammad; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Stefania Mondello; Mohammad Ali Moni; Md Moniruzzaman; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Gabriele Nagel; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bogdan Oancea; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Maja Pasovic; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Carrie B. Peterson; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A. Piradov; Constance Dimity Pond; Michele H. Potashman; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Sergio I. Prada; Amir Radfar; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Mosiur Rahman; Pradhum Ram; Priyanga Ranasinghe; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Stephen R. Robinson; Michele Romoli; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Silvia Schiavolin; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Masood Ali Shaikh; K.S. Shaji; Mohammed Shannawaz; Jeevan K. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Renata Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amanda E. Smith; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Bhaskar Thakur; Binod Timalsina; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yuan-Pang Wang; Anders Wimo; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lin Yang; Yuichiro Yano; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Christopher J.L. Murray; Theo Vos
Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Garland T. Culbreth; Lydia M. Haile; Quinn Rafferty; Justin Lo; Kai Glenn Fukutaki; Jessica A. Cruz; Amanda E. Smith; Stein Emil Vollset; Peter M. Brooks; Marita Cross; Anthony D. Woolf; Hailey Hagins; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Aidin Abedi; Ilana N. Ackerman; Hubert Amu; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Anton A. Artamonov; Tahira Ashraf; Amadou Barrow; Lindsay M. Bearne; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrew M. Briggs; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Kaleb Coberly; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Katie de Luca; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Karsten E. Dreinhoefer; Muhammed Elhadi; Umar Farooque; Hamid Reza Farpour; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Marisa Freitas; Balasankar Ganesan; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Tamiru Getachew; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Tiffany K. Gill; Mahaveer Golechha; Davide Golinelli; Bhawna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Jan Hartvigsen; Simon I. Hay; Jeffrey J. Hebert; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Louis Jacob; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Himal Kandel; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Md Jobair Khan; Yun Jin Kim; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Oleksii Korzh; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Sang-Woong Lee; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Luiz Garcia Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Santi Martini; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Christopher J.L. Murray; Hasan Nassereldine; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Jeevan Pereira; Amir Radfar; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Seyed-Mansoor Rayegani; Daniela Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajendra Sharma; Saurab Sharma; Jeevan K. Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Parnian Shobeiri; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Søren T. Skou; Helen Slater; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Antonina V. Starodubova; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Bay Vo; Linh Gia Vu; Yuan-Pang Wang; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Naohiro Yonemoto; Ismaeel Yunusa; Lyn M. March; Kanyin Liane Ong; Theo Vos; Jacek A. Kopec
Background: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation: Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2019) Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Deepa Jahagirdar; Molly H. Biehl; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Samantha Leigh Larson; Megha Arora; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Krista M. Steuben; Hedayat Abbastabar; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Direslgne Misker Abyu; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Samuel B. Albertson; Birhan Tamene T. Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Daniel Asmelash; Anemaw A. Asrat; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Saba Abraham Belay; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Muche Belayneh; Adugnaw Berhane; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Helen Bitew; Andrew Blinov; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Sharath B.N. Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Raquel Crider; Tukur Dahiru; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; José Das Neves; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don Des Jarlais; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Herbert Duber; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bereket Duko Adema; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Farshad Farzadfar; Batool Fatima; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Themba T.G. Ginindza; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I. Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H. Dean Hosgood; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Spencer L. James; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amir Kasaeian; Belete Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Navid Manafi; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga; Varshil Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Marilita M. Moschos; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Emmanuel Ankrah Odame; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Solomon Olum; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H. Pakpour; Sangram Kishor Patel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Akram Pourshams; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Salman Rawaf; Cesar Reis; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Elias E.M. Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Salvatore Rubino; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Joshua A. Salomon; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Hamid Sharifi; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Mekonnen Sisay; Solomon Sisay; Amanda E. Smith; Anton Sokhan; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Nuno Taveira; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Habtamu Denekew Temesgen; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Stephanie M. Topp; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Yousef Veisani; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Girmay Teklay T. Weldesamuel; Ronny Westerman; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn; Addisu Gize Yeshanew; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Marcel Yotebieng; Yoosik Youm; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Afshin Zarghi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Stein Emil Vollset; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).