Browsing by Author "Amreek Singh"

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High-resolution analysis and prediction of heavy precipitation-induced GLOF events in North Sikkim Himalayas using the WRF model
(Elsevier Ltd, 2025) Peeyush Gupta; Manorama Sudhanshu Shekhar; Gyan Prakash Singh; Dev Sen Gupta; Amreek Singh; Amit Kumar; Rupesh Kumar; Dharmendra Singh Tomar
The northern Sikkim Himalaya hosts numerous high-altitude glacial lakes, many of which exhibit rapid expansion, rendering them highly susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These events release substantial volumes of water downstream, posing significant hydrometeorological hazards. The downstream regions of Sikkim, particularly the lower Teesta basin, experience flood hazards due to both direct precipitation and enhanced discharge from upstream glacial lakes. Among these, South Lhonak Lake (SLL), one of the largest lakes in the Teesta basin, has undergone rapid volumetric expansion, making it a critical hotspot for GLOF hazards. The study explores the application of the WRF model for GLOF-related research, offering a novel approach to understanding and predicting such events. This study used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate and analyze heavy precipitation events across Sikkim, with a specific focus on the GLOF-triggering precipitation event of October 3–4, 2023, over the SLL region. The results suggest that intense precipitation, coupled with ice mass instability and lateral moraine failure, acted as the primary triggers for the catastrophic GLOF. Model simulations were conducted using high-resolution precipitation data acquired from the newly deployed X-band Doppler Weather Radar (DWR) installed by DGRE-DRDO at NIT Sikkim. The resulting outburst flood caused extensive damage to settlements, infrastructure, and hydropower projects along its course, extending several tens of kilometers downstream. The findings underscore the urgent need for an integrated monitoring framework combining high-resolution numerical weather prediction, satellite-based glacial lake surveillance, and real-time radar observations. This study represents the first application of the WRF model for GLOF-related precipitation forecasting in Sikkim, demonstrating its potential for enhancing early warning capabilities and risk mitigation strategies in the region. © 2025 Elsevier Ltd
Study of Natural Disaster in Manali Valley (Himachal Pradesh), India on 09 July 2023
(India Meteorological Department, 2024) M.S. Shekhar; Peeyush Gupta; Vartika Sharma; Kritika Nag; Surender Paul; D.R. Saklani; Veluswami Venkatramanan; G.P. Singh; Amreek Singh
Continuous heavy rainfall in July 2023, particularly from the 7th to the 10th, led to devastating flash floods, cloudbursts and landslides in Himachal Pradesh, causing extensive damage to infrastructure and properties and loss of lives. The most severely affected districts were Kullu, Mandi, Sirmaur, Shimla, Solan and nearby areas. The Manali sub-division, located in Himachal Pradesh, spans an altitude range of 1074 to 4017 meters above sea level. The region's climate is shaped by its mountainous terrain, with the Beas Valley's weather influenced by factors like relief, aspect and altitude. The Pir Panjal Range's windward slopes create a barrier to monsoon winds, resulting in heavy rainfall and cloudbursts in the area. The report from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, on July 12, 2023, highlighted the active monsoon conditions in the state from 7-10 July, exacerbated by a Western Disturbance (WD). This combination led to intense and unprecedented rainfall, causing extensive damage to public and private properties, particularly in hilly regions. The report mentioned that similar disasters have occurred in the past due to heavy rainfall, cloudbursts and landslides, possibly exacerbated by factors like unscientific construction, climate change and increased human activities, including tourism. The report emphasized the need for accurate predictions and proactive planning to mitigate such disasters in the future. © 2024, India Meteorological Department. All rights reserved.
Variability of Diurnal Temperature Range During Winter Over Western Himalaya: Range- and Altitude-Wise Study
(Birkhauser Verlag AG, 2018) M.S. Shekhar; Usha Devi; S.K. Dash; G.P. Singh; Amreek Singh
The current trends in diurnal temperature range, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, and sun shine hours over different ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter have been studied. Analysis of 25 years of data shows an increasing trend in diurnal temperature range over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya during winter, thereby confirming regional warming of the region due to present climate change and global warming. Statistical studies show significant increasing trend in maximum temperature over all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Minimum temperature shows significant decreasing trend over Pir Panjal and Shamshawari range and significant increasing trend over higher altitude of Western Himalaya. Similarly, sunshine hours show significant decreasing trend over Karakoram range. There exists strong positive correlation between diurnal temperature range and maximum temperature for all the ranges and altitudes of Western Himalaya. Strong negative correlation exists between diurnal temperature range and minimum temperature over Shamshawari and Great Himalaya range and lower altitude of Western Himalaya. Sunshine hours show strong positive correlation with diurnal temperature range over Pir Panjal and Great Himalaya range and lower and higher altitudes. © 2018, Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature.