Browsing by Author "Deepa Jahagirdar"

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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohammad Abbasi; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Aidin Abedi; Parisa Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Victor Aboyans; Elissa M. Abrams; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Alyssa Acebedo; Ilana N. Ackerman; Maryam Adabi; Tim Adair; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie D. Adelson; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Emilie E. Agardh; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Kareha M. Agesa; Mohammad Aghaali; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Budi Aji; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Samuel B. Albertson; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M. Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Arwa Khalid Alumran; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Azmeraw T. Amare; Bekalu Amare; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Arya Aminorroaya; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Dickson A. Amugsi; Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Colin Angus; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Iman Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Aseb Arba Kinfe Arba; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Timur Aripov; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe; Krishna K. Aryal; Afsaneh Arzani; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Samaneh Asgari; Babak Asghari; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Charlie Ashbaugh; Michael Assmus; Zahra Atafar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur Avokpaho; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Getie Lake Aynalem; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Gulrez Azhar; Peter S. Azzopardi; B.B. Darshan; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Eleni Bagli; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Arun Balachandran; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Shivanthi Balalla; Shelly Balassyano; Alberto Baldasseroni; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Daniela Balzi; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Marlena S. Bannick; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Simachew Animen Bante; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Lingkan Barua; Akbar Barzegar; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Jacob S. Becker; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Rose G. Bender; Derrick A. Bennett; Fiona B. Bennitt; Isabela M. Bensenor; Catherine P. Benziger; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Neeraj Bhala; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Donal Bisanzio; Catherine Bisignano; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Helen Bitew; Tone Bjørge; Moses John Bockarie; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mehdi Bohluli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Dipan Bose; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Carol Brayne; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Alexey V. Breusov; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrew M. Briggs; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Traolach Brugha; Dana Bryazka; Rachelle Buchbinder; Blair R. Bumgarner; Katrin Burkart; Richard Thomas Burnett; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Leah E. Cahill; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Tianji Cai; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jackie Cao; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Chris D. Castle; Emma Castro; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kate Causey; Christopher R. Cederroth; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Julian Chalek; Joht Singh Chandan; Alex R. Chang; Angela Y. Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Kai-Lan Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Nicolas Cherbuin; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ken Lee Chin; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Beniamino Cislaghi; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Classen; Aaron J. Cohen; Emma L. Collins; Haley Comfort; Kelly Compton; Sara Conti; Owen R. Cooper; Barbara Corso; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Richard G. Cowden; Benjamin C. Cowie; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Andrew J. Croneberger; Di H. Cross; Marita Cross; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Jessica A. Cruz; Steven Cummins; Matthew Cunningham; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Haijiang Dai; Hancheng Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; William James Dangel; Anna-Karin Danielsson; Jiregna Darega Gela; Paul I. Dargan; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José das Neves; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Frances E. Dean; Nicole K. DeCleene; Amanda Deen; Louisa Degenhardt; Marissa DeLang; Robert Paul Dellavalle; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nebiyu Dereje Dereje; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Assefa Desalew; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Martin Dichgans; Alireza Didarloo; Zachary V. Dingels; Ilse N. Dippenaar; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christiane Dolecek; Andrew J. Dolgert; Fariba Dorostkar; Chirag P. Doshi; Pratik P. Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Abdel Douiri; Matthew C. Doxey; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Susanna J. Dunachie; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Joshua R. Ehrlich; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Jessica Fanzo; Tamer Farag; Mohammad Farahmand; Anwar Faraj; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Mithila Faruque; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Pietro Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Ryan Fitzgerald; Carsten Flohr; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Lisa M. Force; Carla Fornari; Masoud Foroutan; Jack T. Fox; Joel Msafiri Francis; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Marisa Freitas; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; João M. Furtado; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Emmanuela Gakidou; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Leake G. Gebremeskel; Begashaw Melaku Gebresillassie; Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Abraham Geremew; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Maryam Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Rakesh Ghosh; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Themba G. Ginindza; Mojgan Gitimoghaddam; Giorgia Giussani; Mustefa Glagn; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Emily Goren; Giuseppe Gorini; Taren M. Gorman; Harrison Chase Gottlich; Houman Goudarzi; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Nachiket Gudi; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Teklemariam Gultie; Gaorui Guo; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Subodh Sharan Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Beatrix Haddock; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Hailey Hagins; Lydia M. Haile; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Erin B. Hamilton; Melanie S. Hammer; Chieh Han; Hannah Han; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; James D. Harvey; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Maryam Hashemian; Abdiwahab Hashi; Amr Hassan; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Kiana Henny; Andualem Henok; Hannah J. Henrikson; Nathaniel J. Henry; Molly E. Herbert; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Thomas R. Hird; Hung Chak Ho; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Bruce Hollingsworth; Praveen Hoogar; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Kejia Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Fernando N. Hugo; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Chantal K. Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Vincent C. Iannucci; Ivo Iavicoli; Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Helen Ippolito; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M. Mofizul Islam; Md. Mohaimenul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Hussain Jafari; Morteza Jafarinia; Deepa Jahagirdar; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Farzad Jalilian; Spencer L. James; Hosna Janjani; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Javad Javidnia; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Peng Jia; Lars Johansson; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Catherine Owens Johnson; Sarah Charlotte Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Ankur Joshi; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Hamed Kalani; Rizwan Kalani; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M. Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Salah Eddin Karimi; Seyed Asaad Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Suzanne H. Keddie; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Laura Kemmer; Parkes J. Kendrick; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Salman Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Mohammad Taghi Khodayari; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Roba Khundkar; Neda Kianipour; Christian Kieling; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Cameron J. Kneib; Luke D. Knibbs; Megan Knight; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; David S.Q. Koh; Stefan Kohler; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Jacek A. Kopec; Anna V. Korotkova; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Anirudh Kotlo; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kris J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; K.S. Shaji; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Bicer Kucuk; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Justin J. Lang; Sinéad M. Langan; Van Charles Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi Jane Larson; Samantha Leigh Larson; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Pablo M. Lavados; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Lisiane F. Leal; Janet L. Leasher; Jorge R. Ledesma; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Andrew T. Leever; Kate E. LeGrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Haley Lescinsky; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sarah Lewington; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Christine Lin; Ro-Ting Lin; Christine Linehan; Shai Linn; Stefan Listl; Hung-Chun Liu; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Yang Liu; Zichen Liu; Justin Lo; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Katharine J. Looker; Alan D. Lopez; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Platon D. Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Alton Lu; Tim C.D. Lucas; Alessandra Lugo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Jianing Ma; Daiane Borges Machado; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Mohammed Madadin; Emilie R. Maddison; Ralph Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mokhtar Mahdavi Mahdavi; Morteza Mahmoudi; Hue Thi Mai; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagón-Rojas; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Amir Manafi; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Ana M. Mantilla Herrera; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Anthony Masaka; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; João Massano; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Claudia I. Mastrogiacomo; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Erin A. May; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Bahram Mohajer; Osama Mohamad; Efat Mohamadi; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2019) Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Deepa Jahagirdar; Molly H. Biehl; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Samantha Leigh Larson; Megha Arora; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Krista M. Steuben; Hedayat Abbastabar; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Direslgne Misker Abyu; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Samuel B. Albertson; Birhan Tamene T. Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Daniel Asmelash; Anemaw A. Asrat; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Saba Abraham Belay; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Muche Belayneh; Adugnaw Berhane; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Helen Bitew; Andrew Blinov; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Sharath B.N. Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Raquel Crider; Tukur Dahiru; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; José Das Neves; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don Des Jarlais; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Herbert Duber; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bereket Duko Adema; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Farshad Farzadfar; Batool Fatima; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Themba T.G. Ginindza; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I. Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H. Dean Hosgood; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Spencer L. James; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amir Kasaeian; Belete Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Navid Manafi; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga; Varshil Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Marilita M. Moschos; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Emmanuel Ankrah Odame; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Solomon Olum; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H. Pakpour; Sangram Kishor Patel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Akram Pourshams; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Salman Rawaf; Cesar Reis; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Elias E.M. Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Salvatore Rubino; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Joshua A. Salomon; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Hamid Sharifi; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Mekonnen Sisay; Solomon Sisay; Amanda E. Smith; Anton Sokhan; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Nuno Taveira; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Habtamu Denekew Temesgen; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Stephanie M. Topp; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Yousef Veisani; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Girmay Teklay T. Weldesamuel; Ronny Westerman; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn; Addisu Gize Yeshanew; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Marcel Yotebieng; Yoosik Youm; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Afshin Zarghi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Stein Emil Vollset; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Avina Vongpradith; Emilie R. Maddison; Amanda Novotney; Molly H. Biehl; Kate E. Legrand; Jennifer M. Ross; Deepa Jahagirdar; Dana Bryazka; Rachel Feldman; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Jason A. Anderson; Sofa Androudi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Asrat Arja; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Gulrez Shah Azhar; B.B. Darshan; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Archith Boloor; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Mareli M. Claassens; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Linh Phuong Doan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Muhammed Elhadi; Amir Emami; Shymaa Enany; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Tahvi D. Frank; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Christian Garcia-Calavaro; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Amador Goodridge; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shaful Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Vardhmaan Jain; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Zubair Kabir; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Parkes J. Kendrick; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Khaled Khatab; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Avinash Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Daiane Borges Machado; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Deepak Madi; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Saurabh Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Nour Mheidly Mheidly; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafu Mohammed; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E. Moore; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Sanjeev Nair; Suma Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Eyal Oren; P.A. Mahesh; Ramakrishnan Parthasarathi; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Rajan Paudel; Pintu Paul; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; Majid Pirestani; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Gholamreza Roshandel; Denis O. Roshchin; Siamak Sabour; K.M. Saif-Ur-rahman; Nasir Salam; Hossein Samadi Kafl; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Satish Saroshe; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Susan M. Sawyer; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharaf; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; João Pedro Silva; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Bach Xuan Tran; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K. Walters; Joanna L. Whisnant; Mesfn Agachew Woldekidan; Befkadu Legesse Wubishet; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Ali H. Mokdad; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Stephen S. Lim; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Deepa Jahagirdar; Magdalene K. Walters; Amanda Novotney; Edmond D. Brewer; Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Molly H. Biehl; Hedayat Abbastabar; E.S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Victor Adekanmbi; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Soodabeh Aghababaei; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Judie Arulappan; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; B.B. Darshan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Tezera Moshago Berheto; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Catherine Bisignano; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Azizbek A. Boltaev; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Dinh-Toi Chu; Rosa A.S. Couto; Richard G. Cowden; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; José das Neves; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Rajesh Elayedath; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aklilu Endalamaw; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Tushar Garg; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Harish Chander Gugnani; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M. Mofizul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Vardhmaan Jain; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Getinet Kassahun; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ermiyas Mulu Kebede; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Himanshu Khajuria; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Khaled Khatab; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Ziad A. Memish; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Peter Meylakhs; Nour Mheidly; Ted R. Miller; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Sumaira Mubarik; Sandra B. Munro; Lillian Mwanri; Jean B. Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Thomas Elliot Nyirenda; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Tarang Parekh; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Marina Pinheiro; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V. Polibin; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Inayat ur Rehman; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Voilet Rodrigues; Denis O. Roshchin; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Umar Saeed; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Marwa Rashad Salem; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Satish Saroshe; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Hina Shamshad; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Adithi Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hooman Tadbiri; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nuno Taveira; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Alexander C. Tsai; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Jorge Hugo Villafañe; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Avina Vongpradith; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Guan Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Joshua A. Salomon; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Mohsen Naghavi; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Hmwe H. Kyu
Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2020) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; John Everett Mumford; Megan Knight; Celine M Barthelemy; Cristiana Abbafati; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R M Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Abdelrahman I Abushouk; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie Adelson; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M Advani; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Samuel B Albertson; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A Almasri; Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever L Amit; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Catherine M Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A Asadi-Pooya; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Getie Lake Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Peter S Azzopardi; Darshan B B; Ebrahim Babaee; Ashish D Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Simachew Animen Bante; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L Bell; Isabela M Bensenor; Adam E Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S Bernstein; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Moses John Bockarie; Somayeh Bohlouli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Srinivasa Rao Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Oliver J Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Andrew M Briggs; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Christopher R Cederroth; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Angela Y Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Ken Lee Chin; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T Chung; Liliana G Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Kelly Compton; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Saad M A Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jiregna Darega Gela; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Ilse N Dippenaar; Hoa Thi Do; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; David Edvardsson; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Islam Y Elgendy; Iqbal RF Elyazar; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Tamer Farag; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L Fisher; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; João M Furtado; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Emmanuela Gakidou; Natalie C Galles; Silvano Gallus; William M Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot; Leake G Gebremeskel; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K Gill; Themba G Ginindza; Mojgan Gitimoghaddam; Giorgia Giussani; Mustefa Glagn; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Salime Goharinezhad; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Teklemariam Gultie; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Randah R Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Chieh Han; Hannah Han; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J Hankey; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J Havmoeller; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Claudiu Herteliu; Thomas R Hird; Hung Chak Ho; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Nobuyuki Horita; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Tanvir M Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Jalil Jaafari; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Morteza Jafarinia; Deepa Jahagirdar; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Hosna Janjani; Tahereh Javaheri; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S Ji; Peng Jia; Yetunde O John-Akinola; Jost B Jonas; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Seyed M Karimi; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Gbenga A Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Saleh Khader; Mohammad Khammarnia; Maseer Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M Khater; Mona M Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Cameron J Kneib; Jonathan M Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Stefan Kohler; Jacek A Kopec; Anna V Korotkova; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Anirudh Kotlo; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Kris J Krohn; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Jeffrey V Lazarus; Jorge R Ledesma; Paul H Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Andrew T Leever; Kate E LeGrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Shanshan Li; Stephen S Lim; Lee-Ling Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Paulo A Lotufo; Alton Lu; Jianing Ma; Mohammed Madadin; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas; Shokofeh Maleki; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Claudia I Mastrogiacomo; Manu Raj Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Tuomo J Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Maryam Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Philip B Mitchell; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F Mosser; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Moses K Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Kiirithio N Ngari; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F Norheim; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Adrian Otoiu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T Olagunju; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Ahmed Omar Bali; Muktar Omer Omer; Kanyin L Ong; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Doris V V Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Sergej M Ostojic; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao. Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan; Mona Pathak; George C Patton; Sagun Paudel; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Spencer A Pease; Amy E Peden; Alyssa Pennini; Emmanuel K Peprah; Jeevan Pereira; David M Pigott; Thomas Pilgrim; Tessa M Pilz; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Reza Pourmirza Kalhori; Akram Pourshams; Sergio I Prada; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Vahid Rashedi; Goura Kishor Rath; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Christian Razo; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Nima Rezaei; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniel Cury Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Nicholas L S Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Enrico Rubagotti; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Ehsan Sadeghi; Yahya Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Marwa R Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Joshua Salomon; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Miloje Savic; Susan M Sawyer; Deepak Saxena; Alyssa N Sbarra; Lauren E Schaeffer; Silvia Schiavolin; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Fablina Sharara; Hamid Sharifi; David H Shaw; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; B Suresh Kumar Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Mark G Shrime; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Radoslaw Sierpinski; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Kyle E Simpson; Jasvinder A Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Emma U R Smith; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Jeffrey D Stanaway; Nicholas Steel; Caroline Stein; Mark A Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Iyad Sultan; Łukasz Szumowski; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Frank C Tanser; Md Ismail Tareque; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Whitney L Teagle; Fabrizio Tediosi; Yonas Getaye Getaye Tefera; Freweini Gebrearegay Tela; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Bhaskar Thakur; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Marcos Roberto Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara Travillian; Christopher E Troeger; Lorainne Tudor Car; Riaz Uddin; Irfan Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Olalekan A Uthman; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Avina Vongpradith; Theo Vos; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K Walters; Richard G Wamai; Haidong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Robert G Weintraub; Jordan Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Lauren B Wilner; Gebremariam Woldu; Charles D A Wolfe; Ai-Min Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Yang Xie; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Jamal A Yearwood; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Siddhesh Zadey; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Kaleab Alemayehu Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Yingxi Zhao; Peng Zheng; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Bianca S Zlavog; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Benn Sartorius; John D. VanderHeide; Mingyou Yang; Erik A. Goosmann; Julia Hon; Emily Haeuser; Michael A. Cork; Samantha Perkins; Deepa Jahagirdar; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Audrey L. Serfes; Kate E. LeGrand; Hedayat Abbastabar; Zeleke Hailemariam Abebo; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Yonas Akalu; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh; Turki M. Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Tilahun Ali; Vahid Alipour; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Boris Bikbov; Tsegaye Adane Birhan; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Moses John Bockarie; Archith Boloor; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J. Cook; Natalie Maria Cormier; Richard G. Cowden; Carlos Culquichicon; Baye Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Farah Daoud; Ahmad Daryani; José das Neves; Nicole Davis Weaver; Meseret Derbew Molla; Kebede Deribe; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Paul Narh Doku; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Lucas Earl; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Alebachew Fasil; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L. Feigin; Tomas Y. Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Berhe Gebremichael; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Lemma Getacher; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Mustefa Glagn; Mahaveer Golechha; Philimon N. Gona; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rashid Abdi Guled; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Ramesh Holla; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Ravi Prakash Jha; Kimberly B. Johnson; Vasna Joshua; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Bayew Kelkay; Nauman Khalid; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Desmond Kuupiel; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jennifer O. Lam; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Paul H. Lee; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Bingyu Li; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin; Deepak Madi; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Abdullah A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K. Mayala; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Mulugeta Melku; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Abera M. Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Andreea Mirica; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Osama Mohamad; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Taklu Marama Mokonnon; Mariam Molokhia; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F. Mosser; Sandra B. Munro; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Samata Nepal; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Samuel Negash Nigussie; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Adrian Pana; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; George C. Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Satish Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer M. Ross; Susan Fred Rumisha; Rajesh Sagar; Maitreyi Sahu; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Brijesh Sathian; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Mohammad Shahbaz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Frank C. Tanser; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Bhaskar Thakur; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Roman Topor-Madry; Marco Torrado; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Alexander C. Tsai; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Constantine Vardavas; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Tewodros Yosef; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Leila Zaki; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license