Browsing by Author "Deepak Dhamnetiya"

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Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(American Medical Association, 2022) Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Kelly Compton; Frances E. Dean; Weijia Fu; Brian L. Gaw; James D. Harvey; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Dan Lu; Alyssa Pennini; Rixing Xu; Emad Ababneh; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Hassan Abolhassani; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Saqib Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Nivaldo Alonso; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Maxwell Hubert Antwi; Davood Anvari; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Hany Ariffin; Timur Aripov; Muhammad Arshad; Al Artaman; Judie Arulappan; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Prince Atorkey; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Temesgen Ayenew; Mohammed A. Azab; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Masoud Behzadifar; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Catherine Bisignano; Tone Bjorge; Archie Bleyer; Oleg Blyuss; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Dejana Braithwaite; Amanpreet Brar; Hermann Brenner; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Ferrán Catalá-López; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Achille Cernigliaro; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Joao Conde; Sanda Cortés; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Amanda Ramos Cunha; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; José das Neves; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Saeid Doaei; Fariba Dorostkar; Francisco Winter dos Santos Figueiredo; Tim Robert Driscoll; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maha El Tantawi; Hassan El-Abid; Iffat Elbarazi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Arash Etemadi; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Silvano Gallus; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat T. Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Avirup Guha; D. Sanjeeva Gunasekera; Bhawna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Fernando N. Hugo; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Fidelia Ida; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Shubha Jayaram; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Danial Kahrizi; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Nawzad Kameran Al-Salihi; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Taras Kavetskyy; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Rovshan Khalilov; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Amir M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Gyu Ri Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Tezer Kutluk; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Paolo Lauriola; Sang-Woong Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Jiarui Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Xuefeng Liu; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Shilpa Male; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Prashant Mathur; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Hamed Mirzaei; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Mohammad Amin Moosavi; Yousef Moradi; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Sumaira Mubarik; Lillian Mwanri; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Chie Nagata; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Rawlance Ndejjo; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Nurulamin M. Noor; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Emad Omar; Ahmed Omar Bali; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Sokking Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Hans Orru; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Demosthenes Panagiotakos; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Harsh K. Patel; Jenil R. Patel; Siddhartha Pati; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Uttam Paudel; David M. Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Julian David Pillay; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Farhad Pishgar; Indrashis Podder; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Akila Prashant; Liliana Preotescu; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Ata Rafiee; Fakher Rahim; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Thomas J. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Peter Rohloff; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; S. Manjula; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Yaeesh Sardiwalla; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Sekerija; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Zahra Shaghaghi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Erfan Shamsoddin; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Velizar Shivarov; Soraya Siabani; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matthew J. Soeberg; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Houman Sotoudeh; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Kurt Straif; Ranjeeta Subedi; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Iyad Sultan; Saima Sultana; Daniel Sur; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Hooman Tadbiri; Amir Taherkhani; Ken Takahashi; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Vivian Y. Tat; Bemnet Amare A. Tedla; Yonas Getaye Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Viveksandeep Thoguluva Chandrasekar; Nihal Thomas; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Massimiliano Veroux; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Paul Ward; Yi Feng Wen; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Fariba Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Jianrong Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Linghui Zhou; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Ivan R. Zimmermann; Christina Fitzmaurice; Christopher J.L. Murray; Lisa M. Force
IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Ewerton Cousin; Bruce B. Duncan; Caroline Stein; Kanyin Liane Ong; Theo Vos; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Amir Abdoli; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abolhassani; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Gina Agarwal; Krishna K. Agrawaal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Ziyad Al-Aly; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Ranjit Mohan Anjana; Adnan Ansar; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Damian Arizmendi; Benedetta Armocida; Anton A. Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Samaneh Asgari; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Jennifer L. Baker; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Palash Chandra Banik; Anthony Barnett; Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Neeraj Bedi; Rebuma Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; David Beran; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Setognal Birara; Virginia Bodolica; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Yin Cao; Chao Cao; Ester Cerin; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Joht Singh Chandan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Simiao Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Daniel Diaz; Sanam Ebtehaj; Hisham Atan Edinur; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Umar Farooque; Xiaoqi Feng; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Marisa Freitas; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Piyada Gaewkhiew; Lemma Getacher; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Ghozali Ghozali; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Syed Shahzad Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Sahadat Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S. Ikuta; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Md Shariful Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Oommen John; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Gbenga A. Kayode; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Moien A. B. Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Amir M. Khater; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Oleksii Korzh; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Ming-Chieh Li; Stephen S. Lim; Lee-Ling Lim; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Borhan Mansouri; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Prashant Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Nafiul Mehedi; Teferi Mekonnen; Ritesh G. Menezes; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Agha Zeeshan Mirza; Prasanna Mithra; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Christopher J. L. Murray; Ahmad Mustafa; Gabriele Nagel; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Temitope T. Ojo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Raffaele Palladino; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Tarang Parekh; Mojtaba Parvizi; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Manju Pilania; Vivek Podder; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akila Prashant; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Nazanin Rajai; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Satish Rao; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniela Ribeiro; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Peter Rohloff; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Paul MacDaragh Ryan; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Markus P. Schlaich; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Mario Šekerija; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Hina Shamshad; Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Kerem Shuval; Jasvinder A. Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Amin Soheili; Jing Sun; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Md. Tariqujjaman; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nihal Thomas; Binod Timalsina; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Riaz Uddin; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Madhur Verma; Victor E. Villalobos-Daniel; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet; Xiaoyue Xu; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Siyan Yi; Naohiro Yonemoto; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Nelson Zamora; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zmaili; Alimuddin Zumla; Mohsen Naghavi; Maria Inês Schmidt
Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Emma Nichols; Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Stein Emil Vollset; Kai Fukutaki; Julian Chalek; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Tayyaba Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Hubert Amu; Iman Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Getinet Ayano; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Atif Amin Baig; Anthony Barnett; Amadou Barrow; Bernhard T. Baune; Yannick Béjot; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Atanu Biswas; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Carol Brayne; Hermann Brenner; Katrin Burkart; Richard A. Burns; Luis Alberto Cámera; Chao Cao; Felix Carvalho; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Prachi P. Chavan; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh-Toi Chu; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A.S. Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Abdel Douiri; David Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Jawad Fares; Andre Faro; Umar Farooque; Valery L. Feigin; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Howard Fillit; Florian Fischer; Shilpa Gaidhane; Lucia Galluzzo; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Alessandro Gialluisi; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glavan; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; M. Tasdik Hasan; Amr Hassan; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Rizwan Kalani; Amit Kandel; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Gizat M. Kassie; Pedram Keshavarz; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Walter J. Koroshetz; Ai Koyanagi; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Yuewei Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Ahmad Azam Malik; João Massano; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Bahram Mohajer; Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim; Yousef Mohammad; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Stefania Mondello; Mohammad Ali Moni; Md Moniruzzaman; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Gabriele Nagel; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bogdan Oancea; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Maja Pasovic; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Carrie B. Peterson; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A. Piradov; Constance Dimity Pond; Michele H. Potashman; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Sergio I. Prada; Amir Radfar; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Mosiur Rahman; Pradhum Ram; Priyanga Ranasinghe; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Stephen R. Robinson; Michele Romoli; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Silvia Schiavolin; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Masood Ali Shaikh; K.S. Shaji; Mohammed Shannawaz; Jeevan K. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Renata Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amanda E. Smith; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Bhaskar Thakur; Binod Timalsina; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yuan-Pang Wang; Anders Wimo; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lin Yang; Yuichiro Yano; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Christopher J.L. Murray; Theo Vos
Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Rajesh Sharma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abidi; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Sangeet Adhikari; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Amir Anoushiravani; Ali Arash Anoushirvani; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Jalal Arabloo; Armin Aryannejad; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ashish D. Badiye; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Maciej Banach; Amadou Barrow; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Sima Besharat; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Tone Bjørge; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Daniela Calina; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Raja Chandra Chakinala; William C.S. Cho; Dinh-Toi Chu; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anna Danielewicz; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Saeid Doaei; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Debela Debela Ejeta; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Muhammed Elhadi; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Tahir Eyayu; Rana Ezzeddini; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Umar Farooque; Hossein Farrokhpour; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Hamed Fattahi; Nima Fattahi; Masood Fereidoonnezhad; Eduarda Fernandes; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Tamiru Getachew; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Giuseppe Gorini; Avirup Guha; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Shafiul Haque; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Farhad Islami; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Neeti Kapoor; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Amirali Karimi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Asma Kazemi; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Javad Khanali; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mahmoud Khodadost; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Ai Koyanagi; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Manoj Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Elvynna Leong; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Azeem Majeed; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Miquel Martorell; Sahar Masoudi; Prashant Mathur; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Saeed Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Zeinab Mokhtari; Mariam Molokhia; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Hae Sung Nam; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ehsan Nazemalhosseini-Mojarad; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Nurulamin M. Noor; Maryam Noori; Seyyed Mohammad Ali Noori; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Sokking Ong; Samuel M. Ostroff; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Reza Pakzad; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Renato B. Pereira; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Richard G. Pestell; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Akram Pourshams; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Sima Rafiei; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Vajiheh Ramezani-Doroh; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Sina Rashedi; Amirfarzan Rashidi; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Mandana Rastegar; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Gholamreza Roshandel; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Bahar Saberzadeh-Ardestani; Basema Saddik; Hossein Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Amir Salek Farrokhi; Amir Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Pouria Samadi; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Šekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Sayed Mohammad Shafiee; Zahra Shaghaghi; Saeed Shahabi; Elaheh Shaker; Maedeh Sharifian; Javad Sharifi-Rad; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Reza Shirkoohi; Parnian Shobeiri; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Guilherme Silva Julian; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Gholam Reza Sivandzadeh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Elnaz Tabibian; Majid Taheri; Yasaman Taheri Abkenar; Amir Taherkhani; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Bekele Tesfaye; Amir Tiyuri; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Mathilde Touvier; Bach Xuan Tran; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Massimiliano Veroux; Bay Vo; Theo Vos; Cong Wang; Ronny Westerman; Melat Woldemariam; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Mazyar Zahir; Iman Zare; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Mohammad Zoladi
Background: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990–2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408–868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00–2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682–537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02–1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3–23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6–28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5–14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6–14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7–320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2–313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9–80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5–73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8–71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0–37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6–34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6–34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation: The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Brittney S. Sheena; Lindsey Hiebert; Hannah Han; Helen Ippolito; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Amir Abdoli; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Mesafint Molla Adane; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bahman Ahadinezhad; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Muhammad Ashar Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Haya Altawalah; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Amir Anoushiravani; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Tahira Ashraf; Daniel Atlaw; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Sayna Bagheri; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Nastaran Barati; Amadou Barrow; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Shu Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Benjamin C. Cowie; Garland T. Culbreth; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Mohammed Gebre Dedefo; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Takele Gezahegn G. Demie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Meseret Derbew Molla; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mojtaba Didehdar; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Thomas M. Drake; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Hossein Farrokhpour; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Shilpa Gaidhane; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Kazem Ghaffari; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholami; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Aima Gilani; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Giuseppe Gorini; Yitayal Ayalew Goshu; Max G. Griswold; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Rabih Halwani; Saeed S. Hamid; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R. Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K. Tesfaye Kanko; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Junaid Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Amir M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Mahmoud Khodadost; Abdullah T. Khoja; Omid Khosravizadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; G. Anil Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Jiarui Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Platon D. Lopukhov; Joana A. Loureiro; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C. Matthews; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Ashraf Mohamadkhani; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Jalal Moludi; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maliheh Moradzadeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Sumaira Mubarik; Malaisamy Muniyandi; Christopher J.L. Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Che Henry Ngwa; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Alireza Rafiei; Sima Rafiei; Pavan Manibettu Raghuram; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Negar Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Chethan Sampath; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mohammed Shannawaz; Suchitra M. Shenoy; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amir Ali Sohrabpour; Suhang Song; Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Majid Taheri; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; Ahmad Tavakoli; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Belay Negash Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Habtamu Molla Tesfaw; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Maria Elena Tosti; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Indang Trihandini; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Adisu Birhanu Weldesenbet; Melat Woldemariam; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Mehdi Yaseri; Yigizie Yeshaw; Vahit Yiǧit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Leila Zaki; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Theo Vos; John W. Ward; M. Ashworth Dirac
Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Valery L. Feigin; Benjamin A. Stark; Catherine Owens Johnson; Gregory A. Roth; Catherine Bisignano; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Foad Abd-Allah; Vida Abedi; Ahmed Abualhasan; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Budi Aji; Samaneh Akbarpour; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Rustam Al-Shahi Salman; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Adnan Ansar; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Jalal Arabloo; Johan Ärnlöv; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Zahra Aryan; Samaneh Asgari; Tahira Ashraf; Mohammad Athar; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atif Amin Baig; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; MacIej Banach; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone; Sanjay Basu; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Ettore Beghi; Mahya Beheshti; Yannick Béjot; Arielle Wilder Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Mulugeta M. Birhanu; Archith Boloor; Aime Bonny; Michael Brauer; Hermann Brenner; Dana Bryazka; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Juan J. Carrero; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Alberico L. Catapano; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; David Colozza; Vera Marisa Costa; Simona Costanzo; Michael H. Criqui; Omid Dadras; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Koustuv Dalal; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Vanessa De La Cruz-Góngora; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Martin Dichgans; Klara Dokova; Rajkumar Doshi; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B. Duncan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Michael Ekholuenetale; Nevine El Nahas; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Umar Farooque; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Mohamed M. Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Ghozali Ghozali; Sherief Ghozy; Alessandro Gialluisi; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Alessandra C. Goulart; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Pradip Gyanwali; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Treska S. Hassan; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sung-In Jang; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Walter D. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Rizwan Kalani; Rohollah Kalhor; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Pedram Keshavarz; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Dhaval Kolte; Ali Koolivand; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Rita V. Krishnamurthi; G. Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Pablo M. Lavados; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Ro-Ting Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Warren David Lo; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Giampiero Mazzaglia; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Yaser Mokhayeri; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Lidia Morawska; Jakub Morze; Walter Muruet; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Hans Orru; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Tarang Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Truong-Minh Pham; Michael A. Piradov; Vivek Podder; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Michele Romoli; Andrzej Rynkiewicz; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Rehab Salah; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Silvia Schiavolin; Markus P. Schlaich; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Md. Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Kenji Shibuya; Soraya Siabani; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Stefan Stortecky; Saverio Stranges; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Yvonne Teuschl; Amanda G. Thrift; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Alireza Vakilian; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Dominique Vervoort; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Kia Vosoughi; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Hatem A. Wafa; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Tissa Wijeratne; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Mark Woodward; Jason H. Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Xiaoyue Xu; Lalit Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Ramin Zand; Alireza Zandifar; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Avina Vongpradith; Emilie R. Maddison; Amanda Novotney; Molly H. Biehl; Kate E. Legrand; Jennifer M. Ross; Deepa Jahagirdar; Dana Bryazka; Rachel Feldman; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Jason A. Anderson; Sofa Androudi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Asrat Arja; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Gulrez Shah Azhar; B.B. Darshan; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Archith Boloor; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Mareli M. Claassens; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Linh Phuong Doan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Muhammed Elhadi; Amir Emami; Shymaa Enany; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Tahvi D. Frank; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Christian Garcia-Calavaro; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Amador Goodridge; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shaful Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Vardhmaan Jain; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Zubair Kabir; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Parkes J. Kendrick; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Khaled Khatab; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Avinash Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Daiane Borges Machado; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Deepak Madi; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Saurabh Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Nour Mheidly Mheidly; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafu Mohammed; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E. Moore; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Sanjeev Nair; Suma Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Eyal Oren; P.A. Mahesh; Ramakrishnan Parthasarathi; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Rajan Paudel; Pintu Paul; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; Majid Pirestani; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Gholamreza Roshandel; Denis O. Roshchin; Siamak Sabour; K.M. Saif-Ur-rahman; Nasir Salam; Hossein Samadi Kafl; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Satish Saroshe; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Susan M. Sawyer; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharaf; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; João Pedro Silva; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Bach Xuan Tran; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K. Walters; Joanna L. Whisnant; Mesfn Agachew Woldekidan; Befkadu Legesse Wubishet; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Ali H. Mokdad; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Stephen S. Lim; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Deepa Jahagirdar; Magdalene K. Walters; Amanda Novotney; Edmond D. Brewer; Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Molly H. Biehl; Hedayat Abbastabar; E.S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Victor Adekanmbi; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Soodabeh Aghababaei; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Judie Arulappan; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; B.B. Darshan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Tezera Moshago Berheto; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Catherine Bisignano; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Azizbek A. Boltaev; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Dinh-Toi Chu; Rosa A.S. Couto; Richard G. Cowden; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; José das Neves; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Rajesh Elayedath; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aklilu Endalamaw; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Tushar Garg; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Harish Chander Gugnani; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M. Mofizul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Vardhmaan Jain; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Getinet Kassahun; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ermiyas Mulu Kebede; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Himanshu Khajuria; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Khaled Khatab; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Ziad A. Memish; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Peter Meylakhs; Nour Mheidly; Ted R. Miller; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Sumaira Mubarik; Sandra B. Munro; Lillian Mwanri; Jean B. Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Thomas Elliot Nyirenda; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Tarang Parekh; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Marina Pinheiro; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V. Polibin; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Inayat ur Rehman; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Voilet Rodrigues; Denis O. Roshchin; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Umar Saeed; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Marwa Rashad Salem; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Satish Saroshe; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Hina Shamshad; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Adithi Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hooman Tadbiri; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nuno Taveira; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Alexander C. Tsai; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Jorge Hugo Villafañe; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Avina Vongpradith; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Guan Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Joshua A. Salomon; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Mohsen Naghavi; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Hmwe H. Kyu
Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Hearing loss prevalence and years lived with disability, 1990-2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Lydia M. Haile; Kaloyan Kamenov; Paul Svitil Briant; Aislyn U. Orji; Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Ashkan Afshin; Haroon Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yonas Akalu; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Hubert Amu; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Judie Arulappan; Charlie Ashbaugh; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Palash Chandra Banik; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Amadou Barrow; Rose G. Bender; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Katrin Burkart; Christopher R. Cederroth; Jaykaran Charan; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Dinh-Toi Chu; Rosa A.S. Couto; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Baye Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Assefa Desalew; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Kerrie E. Doyle; Bruce B. Duncan; Michael Ekholuenetale; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Shilpa Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ghozali Ghozali; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glǎvan; Mahaveer Golechha; Barbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Samer Hamidi; Billy Randall Hammond; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Howard J. Hoffman; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Rohollah Kalhor; Nawzad Kameran Al-Salihi; Himal Kandel; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Soewarta Kosen; Ai Koyanagi; G. Anil Kumar; Ivan Landires; Savita Lasrado; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Stany W. Lobo; Alessandra Lugo; Alaa Makki; Walter Mendoza; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; Sanjeev Misra; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohamed; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mohammad Ali Moni; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Victor Maduabuchi Oguoma; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Hans Orru; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Shahina Pardhan; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Maja Pasovic; Shrikant Pawar; Hai Quang Pham; Marina Pinheiro; Akram Pourshams; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Juwel Rana; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Voilet Rodrigues; Neeti Rustagi; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Winfried Schlee; Maria Ines Schmidt; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Soraya Siabani; Anjali Singal; Jasvinder A. Singh; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Deepika Singhal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Houman Sotoudeh; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Md Ismail Tareque; Rekha Thapar; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Saif Ullah; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Avina Vongpradith; Giang Thu Vu; Jingkai Wei; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Yigizie Yeshaw; Vahit Yiǧit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mohammad Zamani; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Jeff T. Zhao; Christopher J.L. Murray; Adrian C. Davis; Theo Vos; Shelly Chadha
Background: Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability. Methods: We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050. Findings: An estimated 1·57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1·51–1·64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20·3% [19·5–21·1]). Of these, 403·3 million (357·3–449·5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430·4 million (381·7–479·6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127·1 million people [112·3–142·6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62·1% (60·2–63·9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65·8% of the variation in national age-standardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2·45 billion (2·35–2·56) people will have hearing loss, a 56·1% (47·3–65·2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence. Interpretation: As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Natalie C Galles; Patrick Y Liu; Rachel L Updike; Nancy Fullman; Jason Nguyen; Sam Rolfe; Alyssa N Sbarra; Megan F Schipp; Ashley Marks; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Kaja M Abbas; Sumra Wajid Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Maryam Adabi; Abdu A Adamu; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M Advani; Saira Afzal; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Yonas Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Luciana Albano; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Adnan Ansar; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Judie Arulappan; Asma Tahir Awan; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y Azzam; Darshan B B; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Simachew Animen Bante; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Quique Bassat; Narantuya Bayarmagnai; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Archith Boloor; Dejana Braithwaite; Danilo Buonsenso; Zahid A Butt; Paulo Camargos; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meseret Derbew Molla; Behailu Tariku Derseh; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Bassey Edem; Hisham Atan Edinur; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Jawad Fares; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Berhanu Elfu Feleke; Tomas Y Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; João C Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Mark Rohit Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Teshome Gebre; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Berhe Gebremichael; Bradford D Gessner; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Houman Goudarzi; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Yuming Guo; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Emily Haeuser; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Mohamed H Hassanein; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Sumant Inamdar; Usman Iqbal; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Zul Kamal; Stanley M Kamande; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Getinet Kassahun; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Patrick DMC Katoto; Bayew Kelkay; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Ibrahim A Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Maseer Adnan Khan; Moien AB Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Vaman Kulkarni; Avinash Kumar; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S Lassi; Hankil Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Stany W Lobo; Platon D Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C Matthews; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; George J Milne; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohamed; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Archisman Mohapatra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E Moore; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Sandra B Munro; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Mona Pathak; Rajan Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Marina Pinheiro; Majid Pirestani; Vivek Podder; Roman V Polibin; Richard Charles G Pollok; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Rebecca E Ramshaw; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Maria Rios-Blancas; Emma L B Rogowski; Luca Ronfani; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Anas M Saad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; A.M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Deepak Saxena; Sonia Saxena; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Pavanchand H Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Ker-Kan Tan; Yohannes Tekalegn; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Bhaskar Thakur; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Saif Ullah; Sana Ullah; Brigid Unim; Marco Vacante; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Bay Vo; Sebastian Vollmer; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yasir Waheed; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Alimuddin Zumla; Christopher J L Murray; Stephen S Lim; Jonathan F Mosser; J. Nguyen; A. Marks; C.J.L. Murray; S.S. Lim; R. Dandona; C.J.L. Murray; S.S. Lim; L. Ali; A. Ullah; B.E. Feleke; A. Elsharkawy; H. Abolhassani; S. Ahmad; T. Ahmad; S. Sabour; H. Ahmed; M.B. Ahmed; T. Ahmed Rashid; D. Saxena; B. Dagnew; M. Derbew Molla; A. Aklilu; Y. Alemayehu; L. Albano; A. Al-Eyadhy; M. Temsah; Y. Mohammad; R.K. Alhassan; M. Hostiuc; I. Negoi; I. Glăvan; A. Ansar; I. Antonazzo; P. Ferrara; A. Singh Mtech; J. Arabloo; A. Ghashghaee; A. Ghashghaee; A. Sarveazad; K.D. Artanti; J. Arulappan; M.A. Awoke; P. Rathi; Z. Babar; B. Gebremichael; M. Zamani; A. Barrow; A. Barrow; V. Kulkarni; D. Saxena; J. Shin; S. Misra; K. Bhattacharyya; S. Bibi; S. Ullah; A. Boloor; S. Sinha; D. Braithwaite; D. Braithwaite; D. Buonsenso; D. Buonsenso; G.W. Tsegaye; J. De Neve; P. Camargos; M. Pinheiro; R. Chakinala; S. Chatterjee; V. Chattu; V. Chattu; I. Bill; D. Chu; S. Chung; S. Chung; L. Dandona; R. Dandona; A. Ansar; G. Kumar; R. Desai; M. Dhimal; S. Eftekharzadeh; M. Elhadi; S. Enany; A.T. Olagunju; P.S. Faris; B. Tsegaye; I. Filip; F. Fischer; M.R. Francis; M.R. Francis; T. Fukumoto; X. Liu; A.M. Saad; S. Gaidhane; T. Garg; Y. Tekalegn; S. Mohammed; T. Gebre; K. Ghadiri; K. Ghadiri; M. Ghafourifard; M. Moghadaszadeh; S. Gilani; S. Gilani; P.D. Lopukhov; M. Golechha; S.V. Gopalani; H. Goudarzi; M.B. Ahmed; H. Goudarzi; Y. Guo; S. Li; Y. Guo; V. Gupta; V.K. Gupta; R.A. Gutiérrez; A. Hargono Dr; S. Hassan; S. Hassan; G. Heidari; S. Islam; V. Hsieh; J. Huang; C. Zhong; A. Humayun; R. Hussain; A. Makki; J. Noubiap; U. Iqbal; S.N. Irvani; S. Islam; R. Kalhor; R. Kalhor; Z. Kamal; Z. Kamal; A. Karch; J. Khan; G. Kim; M. Kim; M. Kim; Y. Kim; S. Kosen; A. Kumar; A. Kwarteng; C. La Vecchia; I. Landires; V. Nuñez-Samudio; I. Landires; S. Lasrado; M. Levi; M. Levi; C.E. Moore; X. Liu; J. Sanabria; A. Thavamani; P.C. Matthews; J.C. Medina; J.C. Medina; W. Mendoza; R.G. Menezes; M.K. Mesregah; T. Mestrovic; M. Mohammadi; A. Mohammed; S. Mohammed; A. Mohapatra; M. Molokhia; E. Traini; H. Mirzaei; M. Zamanian; S.B. Munro; N. Otstavnov; M. Naveed; I. Negoi; T.H. Nguyen; T.H. Nguyen; B.O. Olakunde; M. Pathak; S. Pawar; M. Pirestani; M. Rabiee; M. Rahman; S. Rahmawaty; A. Rajesh; S. Rawaf; S. Rawaf; M. Saeb; U. Saeed; U. Saeed; M. Samaei; J. Sanabria; F. Sanmarchi; M. Sawhney; A. Seidu; A. Seidu; M.A. Shaikh; M. Shigematsu; A. Soheili; K. Tan; B. Thakur; A. Thavamani; E. Traini; M. Tripathi; S. Ullah; S. Ullah; B. Vo; G.T. Vu; A.S. Winkler; A.S. Winkler; C. Yu; D. Yuce
Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Elysia M. Alvarez; Lisa M. Force; Rixing Xu; Kelly Compton; Dan Lu; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; James D. Harvey; Alyssa Pennini; Frances E. Dean; Weijia Fu; Martina T. Vargas; Theresa H. M. Keegan; Hany Ariffin; Ronald D. Barr; Yana Arturovna Erdomaeva; D. Sanjeeva Gunasekera; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Tyler G. Ketterl; Tezer Kutluk; Marcio Henrique Malogolowkin; Prashant Mathur; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Lynn Ann Gloeckler Ries; Carlos Rodriguez-Galindo; Garik Barisovich Sagoyan; Iyad Sultan; Behzad Abbasi; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Haimanot Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Hassan Abolhassani; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Juan Manuel Acuna; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bahman Ahadinezhad; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Wajeeha Aiman; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Abdulhadi A. AlAmodi; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Yosef Alemayehu; Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sunitha Alluri; Nihad A. Almasri; Sadeq Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Davood Anvari; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Muhammad Arshad; Judie Arulappan; Armin Aryannejad; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Mohammad Reza Atashzar; Prince Atorkey; Alok Atreya; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Alemu Degu Ayele; Solomon Shitu Ayen; Mohammed A. Azab; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Saeed Bahadory; Jianjun Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Huda Basaleem; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Masoud Behzadifar; Niguss Cherie Bekele; Rebuma Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Setognal Birara; Tone Bjørge; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Norma B. Bulamu; Katrin Burkart; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Ferrán Catalá-López; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Prachi P. Chavan; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Omar B. Da; Omid Dadras; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Takele Gezahegn G. Demie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Zeleke Geto Demissie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Meseret Derbew Molla; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Mojtaba Didehdar; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Saeid Doaei; Fariba Dorostkar; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Thomas M. Drake; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Hassan El-Abid; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Iffat Elbarazi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Jawad Fares; Umar Farooque; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Wafa Fatima; José Miguel P. Ferreira De Oliveira; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Piyada Gaewkhiew; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Tamiru Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Fariba Ghassemi; Nermin Ghith; Ali Gholami; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Avirup Guha; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Alemayehu Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Mitiku Teshome Hambisa; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Shafiul Haque; Sanam Hariri; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S M. Mahmudul Hasan; Seyedeh Melika Hashemi; Treska S. Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Sultan H. Hebo; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Ali Hosseinzadeh; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Kaire Innos; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Roksana Janghorban; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Feroze Kaliyadan; Zul Kamal; Ashwin Kamath; Himal Kandel; Sitanshu Sekhar Kar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Amirali Karimi; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Joonas H. Kauppila; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Andre Pascal Kengne; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Nastaran Khalili; Neda Khalili; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A. B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Omid Khosravizadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Roba Khundkar; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Carlo La Vecchia; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Bingyu Li; Jiarui Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Stany W. Lobo; Joana A. Loureiro; Alessandra Lugo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Shilpa Male; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohammed A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Clara N. Matei; Manu Raj Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Ravi Mehrotra; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Alemu Basazin Mingude; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Maliheh Moradzadeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Sumaira Mubarik; Lillian Mwanri; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Chie Nagata; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Luigi Naldi; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Haruna Asura Nggada; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Hamed Nosrati; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Emad Omar; Ahmed Omar Bali; Sokking Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Shahina Pardhan; Fatemeh Pashazadeh; Maja Pasovic; Jenil R. Patel; Siddhartha Pati; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Uttam Paudel; Renato B. Pereira; Mario F. P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Akram Pourshams; Akila Prashant; Thejodhar Pulakunta; Mirza Muhammad Fahd Fahd Qadir; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Sima Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Aashish Rajesh; Vajiheh Ramezani-Doroh; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Sina Rashedi; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Goura Kishor Rath; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Misganu Teshoma Regasa; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Maryam Rezaei; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Aziz Rezapour; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Abanoub Riad; Ligia Estefania Rios Lopez; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Saeid Sadeghian; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Sarvenaz Salahi; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Susan M. Sawyer; Mete Saylan; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Mario Šekerija; Endalew Gemechu Sendo; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Kenbon Seyoum; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Masood Ali Shaikh; Erfan Shamsoddin; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajesh Sharma; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Adithi Shetty; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Soraya Siabani; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Guilherme Silva Julian; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Surjit Singh; Abiy H. Sinke; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Lee Smith; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Kurt Straif; Ranjeeta Subedi; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Saima Sultana; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammadreza Tabary; Takahiro Tabuchi; Hooman Tadbiri; Majid Taheri; Amir Taherkhani; Ken Takahashi; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; Vivian Y. Tat; Ahmad Tavakoli; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Bekele Tesfaye; Jarnail Singh Thakur; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Arulmani Thiyagarajan; Nihal Thomas; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Munkhsaikhan Togtmol; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Gebresilasea Gendisha Ukke; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Tolassa Wakayo Ushula; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Shoban Babu Varthya; Massimiliano Veroux; Paul J. Villeneuve; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Ning Wang; Paul Ward; Adisu Birhanu Weldesenbet; Yi Feng Wen; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Taklo Simeneh Yazie; Sisay Shewasinad Yehualashet; Alex Yeshaneh; Yigizie Yeshaw; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Mazyar Zahir; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Fariba Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Jianrong Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Mohammad Zoladl; Christopher J. L. Murray; Christina Fitzmaurice; Archie Bleyer; Nickhill Bhakta
Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19: a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2050
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Angela E. Micah; Ian E. Cogswell; Brandon Cunningham; Satoshi Ezoe; Anton C. Harle; Emilie R. Maddison; Darrah McCracken; Shuhei Nomura; Kyle E. Simpson; Hayley N. Stutzman; Golsum Tsakalos; Lindsey E. Wallace; Yingxi Zhao; Rahul R. Zende; Cristiana Abbafati; Michael Abdelmasseh; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; E.S. Abhilash; Hassan Abolhassani; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Khurshid Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Yosef Alemayehu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Cyrus Alinia; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir Almustanyir; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Blake Angell; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Timur Aripov; Alessandro Arrigo; Tahira Ashraf; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Gulrez Shah Azhar; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Nastaran Barati; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Habib Benzian; Adam E. Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Virginia Bodolica; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Alexey V. Breusov; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Reinhard Busse; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Emily Joy Callander; Luis Alberto Cámera; Carlos A. 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Zuniga; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Joseph L. Dieleman
Background: The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings: In 2019, health spending globally reached $8·8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·7–8·8) or $1132 (1119–1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40·4 billion (0·5%, 95% UI 0·5–0·5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24·6% (UI 24·0–25·1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54·8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13·7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12·3 billion was newly committed and $1·4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3·1 billion (22·4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2·4 billion (17·9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714·4 million (7·7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34·3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448–1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation: Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license