Browsing by Author "Dirk Douwes-Schultz"

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Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Daniel Dicker; Grant Nguyen; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Ahmed Abdulahi Abdurahman; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; ArsÃ¨ne Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Anurag Agrawal; Mehdi Ahmadi; Alireza Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia V. Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Alaâ€™A Alkerwi; FranÃ§ois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. 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Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; David Teye Doku; Kate A. Dolan; Christl A. Donnelly; E Ray Dorsey; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Thomas M. Drake; Tim Robert Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Mohammed Elfaramawi; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal R F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Tamer Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E SÃ¡ Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. 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Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2019) Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Deepa Jahagirdar; Molly H. Biehl; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Samantha Leigh Larson; Megha Arora; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Krista M. Steuben; Hedayat Abbastabar; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Direslgne Misker Abyu; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Samuel B. Albertson; Birhan Tamene T. Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Daniel Asmelash; Anemaw A. Asrat; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Saba Abraham Belay; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Muche Belayneh; Adugnaw Berhane; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Helen Bitew; Andrew Blinov; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Sharath B.N. Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Raquel Crider; Tukur Dahiru; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; José Das Neves; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don Des Jarlais; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Herbert Duber; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bereket Duko Adema; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Farshad Farzadfar; Batool Fatima; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Themba T.G. Ginindza; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I. Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H. Dean Hosgood; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Spencer L. James; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amir Kasaeian; Belete Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Navid Manafi; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga; Varshil Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Marilita M. Moschos; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Emmanuel Ankrah Odame; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Solomon Olum; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H. Pakpour; Sangram Kishor Patel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Akram Pourshams; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Salman Rawaf; Cesar Reis; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Elias E.M. Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Salvatore Rubino; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Joshua A. Salomon; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Hamid Sharifi; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Mekonnen Sisay; Solomon Sisay; Amanda E. Smith; Anton Sokhan; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Nuno Taveira; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Habtamu Denekew Temesgen; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Stephanie M. Topp; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Yousef Veisani; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Girmay Teklay T. Weldesamuel; Ronny Westerman; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn; Addisu Gize Yeshanew; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Marcel Yotebieng; Yoosik Youm; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Afshin Zarghi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Stein Emil Vollset; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; Degu Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Y. Abyu; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Dominic Agius; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Ammar Albujeer; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Samia Alhabib; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Ali Almasi; Fatma Al-Maskari; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Kebede Amenu; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Johan Ärnlöv; Monika Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Peter S. Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Amitava Banerjee; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Robert J. Battista; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Adugnaw Berhane; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Anil Bhansali; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Helen Bitew; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Espen Bjertness; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Gene Bukhman; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Alanur Çavlin; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Hans De Steur; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Tim Robert Driscoll; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Erika Eldrenkamp; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Jessica Fanzo; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Hossein Farzam; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Wubalem Fekadu; Rachel Feldman; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Ron T. Gansevoort; Ana Cristina Garcia; Alberto L. 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Huang; Caitlyn Hughes; Chantal K. Huynh; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Neda Izadi; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Amr A. Jamal; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; K. Madhanraj; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. 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Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license