Browsing by Author "Emily Haeuser"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–2018
(BioMed Central Ltd, 2022) Emily Haeuser; Audrey L. Serfes; Michael A. Cork; Mingyou Yang; Hedayat Abbastabar; E.S. Abhilash; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Yonas Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Vahid Alipour; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Saeed Amini; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; B.B. Darshan; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Arielle Wilder Bell; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Ivana Bozicevic; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Richard G. Cowden; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Eugene Kofuor Maafo Darteh; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; José das Neves; Nicole Davis Weaver; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Kebede Deribe; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dharmaratne; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Alireza Didarloo; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Maha El Tantawi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Lemma Getacher; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hung Chak Ho; Ramesh Holla; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Rakibul M. Islam; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi Prakash Jha; John S. Ji; Kimberly B. Johnson; Nitin Joseph; Vasna Joshua; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; Salah Eddin Karimi; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Maryam Keramati; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Heidi Jane Larson; Savita Lasrado; Paul H. Lee; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Afshin Maleki; Preeti Malik; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Osama Mohamad; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Masoud Moradi; Paula Moraga; Sumaira Mubarik; Getaneh Baye B. Mulu; Lillian Mwanri; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Muhammad Naveed; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Ashok Pandey; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; George C. Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Maarten J. Postma; Liliana Preotescu; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Mavra A. Riaz; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer M. Ross; Enrico Rubagotti; Susan Fred Rumisha; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Maitreyi Sahu; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Jae Il Shin; Roman Shrestha; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Shahin Soltani; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Nuno Taveira; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Jorge Hugo Villafañe; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Katherine Wilson; Sanni Yaya; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Simon I. Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Background: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15–59 years across SSA. Methods: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units. Results: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group. Conclusions: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA. © 2022, The Author(s).
Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
(BioMed Central Ltd, 2021) Michael A. Cork; Nathaniel J. Henry; Stefanie Watson; Andrew J. Croneberger; Mathew Baumann; Ian D. Letourneau; Mingyou Yang; Audrey L. Serfes; Jaffar Abbas; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Lucas G. Abreu; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Maryam Adabi; Tadele G. Adal; Adeyinka E. Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright O. Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar B. Ahmed; Robert K. Alhassan; Vahid Alipour; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Malke Asaad; Desta D. Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Samad Azari; Darshan B. B; Atif A. Baig; Maciej Banach; Simachew A. Bante; Miguel A. Barboza; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Diana F Bejarano Ramirez; Isabela M. Bensenor; Fenta-Hun Y. Beyene; Yihienew M. Bezabih; Akshaya S. Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Sait M. Birlik; Zebenay W. Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Archith Boloor; Andre R. Brunoni; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Casta-ñeda-orjuela; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J. Cook; Natalie M. Cormier; Saad M A. Dahlawi; Farah Daoud; Claudio A. Dávila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Fernando P. De la Hoz; Feleke M. Demeke; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Keshab Deuba; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Govinda P. Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Andre R. Duraes; Arielle W. Eagan; Lucas Earl; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Andre Faro; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius K. Fauk; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Tesfay B B. Gebremariam; Ketema B. Gebremed-Hin; Gebreamlak G. Gebremeskel; Hailay A. Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Mahaveer Golechha; Ugo Gori; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara N G. Goulart; Harish C. Gugnani; Mark D C. Guimaraes; Rafael A. Guimarães; Yum-Ing Guo; Rahul Gupta; Emily Haeuser; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Teklehaimanot G. Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Ninuk Hariyani; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hung Chak Ho; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Charles U. Ibeneme; Segun E. Ibitoye; Olayinka S. Ile-Sanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Irena M. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Deepa Jahagir-Dar; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi P. Jha; Kimberly B. Johnson; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohol-Lah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Maryam Keramati; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz A. Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md Nuruzzaman N. Khan; Khaled Khatab; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Ricardo S. Kuchenbecker; Vaman Kulkarni; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh K. Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. Legrand; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Hawraz I M. Amin; Daiane B. Machado; Deepak Madi; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Deborah C. Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Md Dilshad Manzar; Carlos A Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco R. Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K. Mayala; Carlo E. Medina-Solís; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mohammad Ali Moni; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Amin Mou-Savi Khaneghah; Ghulam Mustafa; Lillian Mwanri; Ravishankar Nagaraja; Ahamarshan J. Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naim-Zada; Bruno R. Nascimento; Dr M. Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Hadush Negash; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Cuong T. Nguyen; Huong L T. Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Felix A. Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Nikita Otstav-Nov; Mahesh P. A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Ana M. Pardo-Montaño; Urvish K. Patel; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Alexandre Pereira; Samantha Perkins; Julia M. Pescarini; Khem N. Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Faheem H. Pot-Too; Sergio I. Prada; Liliana Preotescu; Dimas R A. Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Chhabi L. Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David L. Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Enrico Rubagotti; Susan F. Rumisha; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Rajesh Sagar; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa R. Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Brijesh Sathian; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Ione J C. Schneider; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Feng Sha; Masood A. Shaikh; Kio-Mars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Diego A S. Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Y. Skryabin; Anna A. Skryabina; Amber Sligar; Amin Soheili; Krista M. Steuben; Mu’Awiyyah B. Sufiyan; Eyayou G. Tadesse; Ayenew K T. Tesema; Fisaha H. Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Robert L. Thompson; Marcos R. Tovani-Palone; Bach X. Tran; Gebiyaw W. Tsegaye; Chukwuma D. Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrish-Nan; Yasser Vasseghian; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Giang T. Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Fissaha T. Welay; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan D. Wickramasinghe; Sanni Yaya; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail S. Zastroz-Hin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths. © 2021, The Author(s).
Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Natalie C Galles; Patrick Y Liu; Rachel L Updike; Nancy Fullman; Jason Nguyen; Sam Rolfe; Alyssa N Sbarra; Megan F Schipp; Ashley Marks; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Kaja M Abbas; Sumra Wajid Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Maryam Adabi; Abdu A Adamu; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M Advani; Saira Afzal; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Yonas Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Luciana Albano; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Adnan Ansar; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Judie Arulappan; Asma Tahir Awan; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y Azzam; Darshan B B; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Simachew Animen Bante; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Quique Bassat; Narantuya Bayarmagnai; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Archith Boloor; Dejana Braithwaite; Danilo Buonsenso; Zahid A Butt; Paulo Camargos; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A S Couto; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meseret Derbew Molla; Behailu Tariku Derseh; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Bassey Edem; Hisham Atan Edinur; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Jawad Fares; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Berhanu Elfu Feleke; Tomas Y Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; João C Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Mark Rohit Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Teshome Gebre; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Berhe Gebremichael; Bradford D Gessner; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Houman Goudarzi; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Yuming Guo; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Emily Haeuser; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Mohamed H Hassanein; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Sumant Inamdar; Usman Iqbal; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Zul Kamal; Stanley M Kamande; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Getinet Kassahun; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Patrick DMC Katoto; Bayew Kelkay; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Ibrahim A Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Maseer Adnan Khan; Moien AB Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Vaman Kulkarni; Avinash Kumar; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S Lassi; Hankil Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Stany W Lobo; Platon D Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C Matthews; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; George J Milne; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohamed; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Archisman Mohapatra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E Moore; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Sandra B Munro; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R Nixon; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Mona Pathak; Rajan Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Marina Pinheiro; Majid Pirestani; Vivek Podder; Roman V Polibin; Richard Charles G Pollok; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Rebecca E Ramshaw; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Maria Rios-Blancas; Emma L B Rogowski; Luca Ronfani; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Anas M Saad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; A.M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Deepak Saxena; Sonia Saxena; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Pavanchand H Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Ker-Kan Tan; Yohannes Tekalegn; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Bhaskar Thakur; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Saif Ullah; Sana Ullah; Brigid Unim; Marco Vacante; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Bay Vo; Sebastian Vollmer; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yasir Waheed; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Alimuddin Zumla; Christopher J L Murray; Stephen S Lim; Jonathan F Mosser; J. Nguyen; A. Marks; C.J.L. Murray; S.S. Lim; R. Dandona; C.J.L. Murray; S.S. Lim; L. Ali; A. Ullah; B.E. Feleke; A. Elsharkawy; H. Abolhassani; S. Ahmad; T. Ahmad; S. Sabour; H. Ahmed; M.B. Ahmed; T. Ahmed Rashid; D. Saxena; B. Dagnew; M. Derbew Molla; A. Aklilu; Y. Alemayehu; L. Albano; A. Al-Eyadhy; M. Temsah; Y. Mohammad; R.K. Alhassan; M. Hostiuc; I. Negoi; I. Glăvan; A. Ansar; I. Antonazzo; P. Ferrara; A. Singh Mtech; J. Arabloo; A. Ghashghaee; A. Ghashghaee; A. Sarveazad; K.D. Artanti; J. Arulappan; M.A. Awoke; P. Rathi; Z. Babar; B. Gebremichael; M. Zamani; A. Barrow; A. Barrow; V. Kulkarni; D. Saxena; J. Shin; S. Misra; K. Bhattacharyya; S. Bibi; S. Ullah; A. Boloor; S. Sinha; D. Braithwaite; D. Braithwaite; D. Buonsenso; D. Buonsenso; G.W. Tsegaye; J. De Neve; P. Camargos; M. Pinheiro; R. Chakinala; S. Chatterjee; V. Chattu; V. Chattu; I. Bill; D. Chu; S. Chung; S. Chung; L. Dandona; R. Dandona; A. Ansar; G. Kumar; R. Desai; M. Dhimal; S. Eftekharzadeh; M. Elhadi; S. Enany; A.T. Olagunju; P.S. Faris; B. Tsegaye; I. Filip; F. Fischer; M.R. Francis; M.R. Francis; T. Fukumoto; X. Liu; A.M. Saad; S. Gaidhane; T. Garg; Y. Tekalegn; S. Mohammed; T. Gebre; K. Ghadiri; K. Ghadiri; M. Ghafourifard; M. Moghadaszadeh; S. Gilani; S. Gilani; P.D. Lopukhov; M. Golechha; S.V. Gopalani; H. Goudarzi; M.B. Ahmed; H. Goudarzi; Y. Guo; S. Li; Y. Guo; V. Gupta; V.K. Gupta; R.A. Gutiérrez; A. Hargono Dr; S. Hassan; S. Hassan; G. Heidari; S. Islam; V. Hsieh; J. Huang; C. Zhong; A. Humayun; R. Hussain; A. Makki; J. Noubiap; U. Iqbal; S.N. Irvani; S. Islam; R. Kalhor; R. Kalhor; Z. Kamal; Z. Kamal; A. Karch; J. Khan; G. Kim; M. Kim; M. Kim; Y. Kim; S. Kosen; A. Kumar; A. Kwarteng; C. La Vecchia; I. Landires; V. Nuñez-Samudio; I. Landires; S. Lasrado; M. Levi; M. Levi; C.E. Moore; X. Liu; J. Sanabria; A. Thavamani; P.C. Matthews; J.C. Medina; J.C. Medina; W. Mendoza; R.G. Menezes; M.K. Mesregah; T. Mestrovic; M. Mohammadi; A. Mohammed; S. Mohammed; A. Mohapatra; M. Molokhia; E. Traini; H. Mirzaei; M. Zamanian; S.B. Munro; N. Otstavnov; M. Naveed; I. Negoi; T.H. Nguyen; T.H. Nguyen; B.O. Olakunde; M. Pathak; S. Pawar; M. Pirestani; M. Rabiee; M. Rahman; S. Rahmawaty; A. Rajesh; S. Rawaf; S. Rawaf; M. Saeb; U. Saeed; U. Saeed; M. Samaei; J. Sanabria; F. Sanmarchi; M. Sawhney; A. Seidu; A. Seidu; M.A. Shaikh; M. Shigematsu; A. Soheili; K. Tan; B. Thakur; A. Thavamani; E. Traini; M. Tripathi; S. Ullah; S. Ullah; B. Vo; G.T. Vu; A.S. Winkler; A.S. Winkler; C. Yu; D. Yuce
Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Benn Sartorius; John D. VanderHeide; Mingyou Yang; Erik A. Goosmann; Julia Hon; Emily Haeuser; Michael A. Cork; Samantha Perkins; Deepa Jahagirdar; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Audrey L. Serfes; Kate E. LeGrand; Hedayat Abbastabar; Zeleke Hailemariam Abebo; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Yonas Akalu; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh; Turki M. Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Tilahun Ali; Vahid Alipour; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Boris Bikbov; Tsegaye Adane Birhan; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Moses John Bockarie; Archith Boloor; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J. Cook; Natalie Maria Cormier; Richard G. Cowden; Carlos Culquichicon; Baye Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Farah Daoud; Ahmad Daryani; José das Neves; Nicole Davis Weaver; Meseret Derbew Molla; Kebede Deribe; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Paul Narh Doku; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Lucas Earl; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Alebachew Fasil; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L. Feigin; Tomas Y. Ferede; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Berhe Gebremichael; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Lemma Getacher; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Mustefa Glagn; Mahaveer Golechha; Philimon N. Gona; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rashid Abdi Guled; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Ramesh Holla; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Ravi Prakash Jha; Kimberly B. Johnson; Vasna Joshua; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Bayew Kelkay; Nauman Khalid; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Desmond Kuupiel; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jennifer O. Lam; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Paul H. Lee; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Bingyu Li; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin; Deepak Madi; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Abdullah A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K. Mayala; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Mulugeta Melku; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Abera M. Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Andreea Mirica; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Osama Mohamad; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Taklu Marama Mokonnon; Mariam Molokhia; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F. Mosser; Sandra B. Munro; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Samata Nepal; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Samuel Negash Nigussie; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Adrian Pana; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; George C. Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Satish Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer M. Ross; Susan Fred Rumisha; Rajesh Sagar; Maitreyi Sahu; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Brijesh Sathian; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Mohammad Shahbaz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Frank C. Tanser; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Bhaskar Thakur; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Roman Topor-Madry; Marco Torrado; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Alexander C. Tsai; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Constantine Vardavas; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Tewodros Yosef; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Leila Zaki; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Background: High-resolution estimates of HIV burden across space and time provide an important tool for tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts and assist with improving the precision and efficiency of targeting efforts. We aimed to assess HIV incidence and HIV mortality for all second-level administrative units across sub-Saharan Africa. Methods: In this modelling study, we developed a framework that used the geographically specific HIV prevalence data collected in seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care clinics to train a model that estimates HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years. We used a model-based geostatistical framework to estimate HIV prevalence at the second administrative level in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for 2000–18 and sought data on the number of individuals on antiretroviral therapy (ART) by second-level administrative unit. We then modified the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) to use these HIV prevalence and treatment estimates to estimate HIV incidence and mortality by second-level administrative unit. Findings: The estimates suggest substantial variation in HIV incidence and mortality rates both between and within countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with 15 countries having a ten-times or greater difference in estimated HIV incidence between the second-level administrative units with the lowest and highest estimated incidence levels. Across all 44 countries in 2018, HIV incidence ranged from 2·8 (95% uncertainty interval 2·1–3·8) in Mauritania to 1585·9 (1369·4–1824·8) cases per 100 000 people in Lesotho and HIV mortality ranged from 0·8 (0·7–0·9) in Mauritania to 676·5 (513·6–888·0) deaths per 100 000 people in Lesotho. Variation in both incidence and mortality was substantially greater at the subnational level than at the national level and the highest estimated rates were accordingly higher. Among second-level administrative units, Guijá District, Gaza Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV incidence (4661·7 [2544·8–8120·3]) cases per 100 000 people in 2018 and Inhassunge District, Zambezia Province, Mozambique, had the highest estimated HIV mortality rate (1163·0 [679·0–1866·8]) deaths per 100 000 people. Further, the rate of reduction in HIV incidence and mortality from 2000 to 2018, as well as the ratio of new infections to the number of people living with HIV was highly variable. Although most second-level administrative units had declines in the number of new cases (3316 [81·1%] of 4087 units) and number of deaths (3325 [81·4%]), nearly all appeared well short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths between 2010 and 2020. Interpretation: Our estimates suggest that most second-level administrative units in sub-Saharan Africa are falling short of the targeted 75% reduction in new cases and deaths by 2020, which is further compounded by substantial within-country variability. These estimates will help decision makers and programme implementers expand access to ART and better target health resources to higher burden subnational areas. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license