Browsing by Author "Haidong Wang"

Now showing 1 - 9 of 9

Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)
(Nature Research, 2020) Damaris K. Kinyoki; Jennifer M. Ross; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Sandra B. Munro; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi; Masoumeh Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Ahmed Abdelalim; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Maryam Adabi; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Posi Emmanuel Aduroja; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mohammad Aghaali; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Olufemi Ajumobi; Chalachew Genet Akal; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Ziyad Al-Aly; Samiah Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Muhammad Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Afshin Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Azmeraw T. Amare; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever Loreche Amit; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ephrem Mebrahtu Araya; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Samaneh Asgari; Babak Asghari; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Anemaw A. Asrat; Bahar Ataeinia; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared A. Asmare Aynalem; Abbas Azadmehr; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mohamad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin A. Baig; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Zahra Baradaran-Seyed; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Miguel A. Barboza; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lingkan Barua; Huda Basaleem; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Mulat Tirfie Bayih; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yibeltal Alemu Bekele; Derrick A. Bennett; Dessalegn Ajema Berbada; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Robert S. Bernstein; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bharadwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Setognal Birara; Minuye Biniam Biniam Birhane; Minyichil Birhanu; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Somayeh Bohlouli; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Antonio M. Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Ester Cerin; Collins Chansa; Jaykaran Charan; Pranab Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Ali Reza Chavshin; Mohammad Chehrazi; Tesfaye Yitna Chichiabellu; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Michael L. Collison; Michael A. Cork; Natalie Cormier; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera M. Costa; Abel Fekadu Fekadu Dadi; Baye Dagnew; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Claudio Dávila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Rupak Desai; Beruk Berhanu Desalegn; Assefa Desalew; Aniruddha Deshpande; Sagnik Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Preeti Dhillon; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianati Nasab; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Girmaye Deye Dinsa; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Huyen Phuc Do; Paul Narh Doku; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Manisha Dubey; Bereket Duko Adema; Susanna J. Dunachie; Bruce B. Duncan; Ewerton Cousin; Andre R. Durães; Lucas Earl; Hamed Ebrahimzadeh Leylabadlo; Aziz Eftekhari; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Yasser Mohamed El-Sherbiny; Iqbal R. F. Elyazar; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Adane Endalew; Melese Linger Endalifer; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Jessica Fanzo; Mohammad Farahmand; Anwar Faraj; Sajjad Farashi; Mohammad Fareed; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Hossein Farzam; Syeda Sadia Fatima; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Netsanet Fentahun; Tomas Y. Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; João C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Carsten Flohr; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Jana Förster; Joel Msafiri Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Hadush Gebremariam; Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam; Ketema Bizuwork Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie; Gebretsadkan G. G. Gebretsadik; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Agegnehu Bante Getenet; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Mahsa Ghajarzadeh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Srinivas Goli; Nelson G. M. Gomes; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C. Goulart; Arunkumar Govindakarnavar; Ayman Grada; Michal Grivna; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Michael Tamene Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Yadollah Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Ninuk Hariyani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md. Mehedi Hasan; Milad Hasankhani; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Maryam Hashemian; Soheil Hassanipour; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Corinna Hawkes; Khezar Hayat; Desta Haftu Hayelom; Behnam Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Mario Herrero; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hagos D. de Hidru; Chi Linh Hoang; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Gillian Hollerich; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Sung Hwi Hong; Praveen Hoogar; Masako Horino; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Neda Izadi; Jalil Jaafari; Anelisa Jaca; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Nader Jafari Balalami; Morteza Jafarinia; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Farzad Jalilian; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Fyezah Jehan; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Peng Jia; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Kimberly B. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Hamed Kalani; Leila L. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Umesh Kapil; Neeti Kapoor; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd A. Karim; Surendra Karki; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Andre Pascal Kengne; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Mojtaba Khaksarian; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Asad Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Mohammad Saud Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir Khater; Mona M. Khater; Mahalqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Maryam Khazaei-Pool; Mohammad Khazaei; Salman Khazaei; Mohammad Taghi Khodayari; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Roba Khundkar; Ali Kiadaliri; Neda Kianipour; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Shivakumar K. M. Kondlahalli; Ali Koolivand; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Kris J. Krohn; Nuworza Kugbey; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Oluwatosin Kuti; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Deepesh P. Lad; Aparna Lal; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Mostafa Leili; Ian D. Letourneau; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Joshua Longbottom; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mohammed Madadin; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ali Manafi; Farzad Manafi; Navid Manafi; Narendar Dawanu Manohar; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Laurie B. Marczak; Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Benjamin K. Mayala; Mohsen Mazidi; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Freshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen; Teferi Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomasz Miazgowski; Neda Milevska Kostova; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; G.K. Mini; Seyed Mostafa Mir; Mohammad Miri; Hamed Mirjalali; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Efat Mohamadi; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K. Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Amin Mokari; Ali H. Mokdad; Julio Cesar Montañez; Pablo A. Montero-Zamora; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Mohammad Moradi-Joo; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F. Mosser; Simin Mouodi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Dariush Mozaffarian; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Christopher J. L. Murray; G.V.S. Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Behnam Nabavizadeh; Mehdi Naderi; Girish N. Nadkarni; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Jobert Richie Nansseu; K. M. Venkat Narayan; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Vinod Nayak; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Dabere Nigatu; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Vuong Minh Nong; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Bogdan Oancea; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Muktar Omer Omer; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Alberto Ortiz; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Mahesh P. A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Hadi Parsian; Tahereh Pashaei; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Mona Pathak; Sanghamitra Pati; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Kebreab Paulos; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; William A. Petri; Brandon V. Pickering; David M. Pigott; Majid Pirestani; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Reza Pourmirza Kalhori; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Sergio I. Prada; Liliana Preotescu; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Davide Rasella; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Sarah E. Ray; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Nima Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Alina Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Elias Merdassa Roro; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Enrico Rubagotti; Anas M. Saad; Seyedmohammad Saadatagah; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Siamak Sabour; Ehsan Sadeghi; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Saeed Safari; Yahya Safari; Hamid Safarpour; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Farkhonde Salehi; Saleh Salehi Zahabi; Hosni Salem; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Itamar S. Santos; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Alyssa N. Sbarra; Megan F. Schipp; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Amir Shamshirian; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Rajesh Sharma; Hatem Samir Shehata; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Ambrish Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Virendra Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pankaj Kumar Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Amin Soheili; Bija Soleymani; Farzaneh Soltani; Shahin Soltani; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Adel Spotin; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Rajni Kant Kant Srivastava; Antonina Starodubova; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Berhane Fseha Teklehaimanot; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Nihal Thomas; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Khanh Bao Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Riaz Uddin; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Ushotanefe Useh; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Marco Vacante; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Pascual R. Valdez; John VanderHeide; Elena Varavikova; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Yousef Veisani; Srinivasaraghavan Venkatesh; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Simone Vidale; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Sebastian Vollmer; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Haidong Wang; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Andrea Werdecker; Taweewat Wiangkham; Kirsten E. Wiens; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Ai-Min Wu; Gelin Xu; Abbas Yadegar; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Alex Yeshaneh; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Yoosik Youm; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Hadi Zarafshan; Nejimu Biza Zepro; Taddese Alemu Zerfu; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Xiu-Ju Zhao; Sanjay Zodpey; Kamiar Zomorodian; Francis Bruno Zotor; Ashkan Afshin; Simon I. Hay
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s).
Erratum: Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1725–1774)(S0140673616315756)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31575-6))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2017) Haidong Wang; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Matthew M Coates; Megan Coggeshall; Lalit Dandona; Khassoum Diallo; Elisabeth Barboza Franca; Maya Fraser; Nancy Fullman; Peter W Gething; Simon I Hay; Yohannes Kinfu; Maaya Kita; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Heidi J Larson; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Stephen S Lim; Margaret Lind; Alan D Lopez; Rafael Lozano; George A Mensah; Joseph B Mikesell; Ali H Mokdad; Meghan D Mooney; Mohsen Naghavi; Grant Nguyen; Ivo Rakovac; Joshua A Salomon; Naris Silpakit; Amber Sligar; Reed J D Sorensen; Theo Vos; Jun Zhu; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Kaja M Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M Abdulle; Semaw Ferede Abera; Victor Aboyans; Biju Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Tom Achoki; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Ademola Lukman Adelekan; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Arnav Agarwal; Oluremi N Ajala; Tomi F Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Khurshid Alam; Noore K M Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Robert William Aldridge; Miguel Angel Alegretti; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Raghib Ali; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Elena Alvarez Martin; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Emmanuel A Ameh; Walid Ammar; Stephen Marc Amrock; Hjalte H Andersen; Gregory M Anderson; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Suleman Atique; Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Bolanle F Banigbe; Aleksandra Barac; Ryan M Barber; Suzanne L Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Tigist Assefa Bayou; Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Tolesa Bekele; Michelle L Bell; Aminu K Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabé; Balem Demtsu Betsu; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Samir Bhatt; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Boris Bikbov; Sait Mentes Birlik; Donal Bisanzio; Espen Bjertness; Jed D Blore; Rupert R A Bourne; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Alexandria Brown; Geoffrey Colin Buckle; Michael Burch; Zahid A Butt; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano; Rosario Cárdenas; David O Carpenter; Juan Jesus Carrero; Austin Carter; Daniel C Casey; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ruben Estanislao Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly Cercy; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G Ciobanu; Samantha M Colquhoun; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Solomon Abrha Damtew; Hadi Danawi; Rakhi Dandona; José Das Neves; Adrian C Davis; Pieter de Jager; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C Des Jarlais; Gabrielle A Deveber; Samath D Dharmaratne; Preet K Dhillon; Eric L Ding; Pratik Pinal Doshi; Kerrie E Doyle; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal Elyazar; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Talha A Farid; Carla Sofia E Sa Farinha; André Faro; Maryam S Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Joao C Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Joseph R A Fitchett; Nataliya Foigt; Richard C Franklin; Joseph Friedman; Thomas Fürst; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Parthasarathi Ganguly; Teshome Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Alemseged Aregay Gebru; Johanna M Geleijnse; Bradford D Gessner; Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Hebe N Gouda; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Demewoz Haile; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Jamie Hancock; Alexis J Handal; Graeme J Hankey; Hilda L Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Kimani M Harun; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J Hay; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Hans W Hoek; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Peter J Hotez; Damian G Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Cheng Huang; John J Huang; Hsiang Huang; Laetitia Huiart; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Bulat T Idrisov; Kaire Innos; Kathryn H Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Sun Ha Jee; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Vivekanand Jha; Guohong Jiang; Ying Jiang; Tariku Jibat; Ye Jin; Jost B Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ritul Kamal; Haidong Kan; Gagandeep Kang; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Amir Kasaeian; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda; Konstantin Kazanjan; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Andrew Haddon Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Abdur Rahman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Irma Khonelidze; Jagdish Khubchandani; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Niranjan Kissoon; Miia Kivipelto; Luke D Knibbs; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A Kudom; G. Anil Kumar; Michael J Kutz; Hmwe H Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Jennifer O Lam; Van C Lansingh; Anders Larsson; James Leigh; Ricky Leung; Yichong Li; Yongmei Li; M Patrice Lindsay; Patrick Y Liu; Shiwei Liu; Belinda K Lloyd; Warren D Lo; Giancarlo Logroscino; Nicola Low; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A Lyons; Stefan Ma; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahdi Mahdavi; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Chabila C Mapoma; Wagner Marcenes; Jose Martinez-Raga; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; Felix Masiye; John J McGrath; Peter A Meaney; Alem Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Alemayehu B Mekonnen; Yohannes Adama Melaku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A Memish; Walter Mendoza; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Francis Apolinary Mhimbira; Ted R Miller; Edward J Mills; Mojde Mirarefin; Awoke Misganaw; Charles N Mock; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Alireza Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez; Marcella Montico; Ami R Moore; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Lidia Morawska; Rintaro Mori; Ulrich O Mueller; Georgina A V Murphy; Srinivas Murthy; Jean B Nachega; Aliya Naheed; Kovin S Naidoo; Luigi Naldi; Devina Nand; Vinay Nangia; Subas Neupane; Charles R Newton; John N Newton; Marie Ng; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Peter Nguhiu; Quyen Le Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete; Ole F Norheim; Rosana E Norman; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Foluke Adetola Ojelabi; Pedro R Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; P.A. Mahesh; Eun-Kee Park; Hye-Youn Park; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Angel J Paternina Caicedo; Scott B Patten; João Mário Pedro; David M Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Daniel Pope; Svetlana Popova; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Rynaz H S Rabiee; Anwar Rafay; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Murugesan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja Rao; Amany H Refaat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Serge Resnikoff; Alex Reynolds; David Rojas-Rueda; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A Roth; Ambuj Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Rajesh Sagar; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Juan R Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S Santos; João Vasco Santos; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Edson E Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Kevin N Sheth; Kenji Shibuya; Hwashin Hyun Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shuie; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jonathan Silverberg; Edgar P Simard; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Joan B Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Luciano A Sposato; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Bruno F Sunguya; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L Sykes; Cassandra E I Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Bineyam Taye; Bemnet Amare Tedla; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Tesfaye Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kiran Thapa; Alan J Thomson; Andrew L Thorne-Lyman; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Bach Xuan Tran; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene; Abera Kenay Tura; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N Ukwaja; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Raj Kumar Verma; Francesco S Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Linhong Wang; Yanping Wang; Scott Weichenthal; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G Weintraub; Daniel J Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Tissa Wijeratne; Thomas Neil Williams; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A Wolfe; Ingrid Wolfe; Sungho Won; Mamo Wubshet; Qingyang Xiao; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Pengpeng Ye; Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Hajo Zeeb; Hao Zhang; Yong Zhao; Yingfeng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
GBD 2015 Child Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1725–74—In this Article, Mohsen Naghavi, Michael J Kutz, Chantal Huynh, Samer Hamidi, Addisu Shunu Beyene, and Stephen S Lim should have been listed as authors. The affiliation details for Simon I Hay have been updated. The funding statement for Simon I Hay has been added. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Jan 5, 2017. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2019) Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Deepa Jahagirdar; Molly H. Biehl; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Samantha Leigh Larson; Megha Arora; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Krista M. Steuben; Hedayat Abbastabar; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Direslgne Misker Abyu; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Samuel B. Albertson; Birhan Tamene T. Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Daniel Asmelash; Anemaw A. Asrat; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Saba Abraham Belay; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Muche Belayneh; Adugnaw Berhane; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Helen Bitew; Andrew Blinov; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Sharath B.N. Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Raquel Crider; Tukur Dahiru; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; José Das Neves; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don Des Jarlais; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Herbert Duber; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bereket Duko Adema; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Farshad Farzadfar; Batool Fatima; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Themba T.G. Ginindza; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I. Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H. Dean Hosgood; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Spencer L. James; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amir Kasaeian; Belete Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Navid Manafi; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga; Varshil Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Marilita M. Moschos; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Emmanuel Ankrah Odame; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Solomon Olum; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H. Pakpour; Sangram Kishor Patel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Akram Pourshams; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Salman Rawaf; Cesar Reis; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Elias E.M. Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Salvatore Rubino; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Joshua A. Salomon; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Hamid Sharifi; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Mekonnen Sisay; Solomon Sisay; Amanda E. Smith; Anton Sokhan; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Nuno Taveira; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Habtamu Denekew Temesgen; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Stephanie M. Topp; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Yousef Veisani; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Girmay Teklay T. Weldesamuel; Ronny Westerman; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn; Addisu Gize Yeshanew; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Marcel Yotebieng; Yoosik Youm; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Afshin Zarghi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Stein Emil Vollset; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Katherine R. Paulson; Aruna M. Kamath; Tahiya Alam; Kelly Bienhoff; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Jaffar Abbas; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Aishatu L. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Jose C. Adsuar; Khashayar Afshari; Mohammad Aghaali; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Tilahun Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Arwa Khalid Alumran; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Timur Aripov; Johan Ärnlöv; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Afsaneh Arzani; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Seyyede Masoume Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; B.B. Darshan; Ebrahim Babaee; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Massimiliano Beghi; Michelle L. Bell; Salaheddine Bendak; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Alexey V. Breusov; Andre R. Brunoni; Katrin Burkart; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ester Cerin; Jung-Chen Chang; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Simiao Chen; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A. S. Couto; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Hancheng Dai; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Gary L. Darmstadt; Jai K. Das; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Adrian C. Davis; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Diego De Leo; Farah Deeba; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nikolaos Dervenis; Assefa Desalew; Keshab Deuba; Sagnik Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Sameer Dhingra; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Eleonora Dubljanin; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ferry Efendi; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Amir Emami; Shymaa Enany; Oghenowede Eyawo; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Tomas Y. Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Marisa Freitas; Sara D. Friedman; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Shilpa Gaidhane; Santosh Gaihre; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; M.A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Lemma Getacher; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Houman Goudarzi; Michal Grivna; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Syed Shahzad Hasan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Khezar Hayat; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Sumant Inamdar; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Khalid Iqbal; Usman Iqbal; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Jagnoor Jagnoor; Vardhmaan Jain; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Shubha Jayaram; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; John S. Ji; Oommen John; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Laura Kemmer; Nauman Khalid; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Ardeshir Khosravi; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Vaman Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Ratilal Lalloo; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Sonia Lewycka; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Ro-Ting Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Alan D. Lopez; Rafael Lozano; Alessandra Lugo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Mark T. Mackay; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Francesca Giulia Magnani; D. R. Mahadeshwara Prasad; Mina Maheri; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Gabriel Martinez; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Pallab K. Maulik; Colm Mcalinden; John J. Mcgrath; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Abera M. Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Bahram Mohajer; Osama Mohamad; Yousef Mohammad; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Mohammad Ali Moni; Catrin E. Moore; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Shane Douglas Morrison; Jonathan F. Mosser; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ghulam Mustafa; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Muhammad Naveed; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Evangelia Nena; Samata Nepal; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Chi Thi Yen Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Samuel Negash Nigussie; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Nurulamin M. Noor; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Adrian Otoiu; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Pramod Kumar Pal; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Ashok Pandey; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan; Ana Melisa Pardo-Montaño; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; George C. Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Amy E. Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Jeevan Pereira; Jorge Pérez-Gómez; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Thomas Pilgrim; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; James A. Platts-Mills; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Sergio I. Prada; Sanjay Prakash; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Davide Rasella; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Wasiq Faraz Rawasia; Reza Rawassizadeh; Robert C. Reiner; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Serge Resnikoff; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniela Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; Susan Fred Rumisha; Paul Macdaragh Ryan; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Yoseph Leonardo Samodra; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Sonia Saxena; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Mete Saylan; Silvia Schiavolin; Markus P. Schlaich; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Mohammad Shahbaz; Amira A. Shaheen; Izza Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Saeed Shakiba; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shiue; Kerem Shuval; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; João Pedro Silva; Jonathan I.S. Silverberg; Biagio Simonetti; Balbir Bagicha Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Deepika Singhal; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Eirini Skiadaresi; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Shahin Soltani; Joan B. Soriano; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mark A. Stokes; Stefan Stortecky; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Carolyn B. Swope; Bryan L. Sykes; Mindy D. Szeto; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Md Ismail Tareque; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Giorgos Tsapparellas; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Riaz Uddin; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Yanping Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Paul Ward; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Lauren B. Wilner; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Ai-Min Wu; Chenkai Wu; Yang Xie; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Srikanth Yandrapalli; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Chuanhua Yu; Sifat Shahana Yusuf; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Haidong Wang; Nicholas J. Kassebaum
Background: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods: We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings: Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35–2·58; 37% [95% UI 32–43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation: Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Deepa Jahagirdar; Magdalene K. Walters; Amanda Novotney; Edmond D. Brewer; Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Molly H. Biehl; Hedayat Abbastabar; E.S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Victor Adekanmbi; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Soodabeh Aghababaei; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Judie Arulappan; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; B.B. Darshan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Tezera Moshago Berheto; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Catherine Bisignano; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Azizbek A. Boltaev; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Dinh-Toi Chu; Rosa A.S. Couto; Richard G. Cowden; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; José das Neves; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Rajesh Elayedath; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aklilu Endalamaw; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Tushar Garg; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Harish Chander Gugnani; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M. Mofizul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Vardhmaan Jain; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Getinet Kassahun; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ermiyas Mulu Kebede; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Himanshu Khajuria; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Khaled Khatab; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Ziad A. Memish; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Peter Meylakhs; Nour Mheidly; Ted R. Miller; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Sumaira Mubarik; Sandra B. Munro; Lillian Mwanri; Jean B. Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Thomas Elliot Nyirenda; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Tarang Parekh; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Marina Pinheiro; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V. Polibin; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Inayat ur Rehman; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Voilet Rodrigues; Denis O. Roshchin; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Umar Saeed; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Marwa Rashad Salem; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Satish Saroshe; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Hina Shamshad; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Adithi Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hooman Tadbiri; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nuno Taveira; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Alexander C. Tsai; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Jorge Hugo Villafañe; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Avina Vongpradith; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Guan Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Joshua A. Salomon; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Mohsen Naghavi; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Hmwe H. Kyu
Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2016) Haidong Wang; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Matthew M Coates; Megan Coggeshall; Lalit Dandona; Khassoum Diallo; Elisabeth Barboza Franca; Maya Fraser; Nancy Fullman; Peter W Gething; Simon I Hay; Yohannes Kinfu; Maaya Kita; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Heidi J Larson; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Stephen S Lim; Margaret Lind; Alan D Lopez; Rafael Lozano; George A Mensah; Joseph B Mikesell; Ali H Mokdad; Meghan D Mooney; Mohsen Naghavi; Grant Nguyen; Ivo Rakovac; Joshua A Salomon; Naris Silpakit; Amber Sligar; Reed J D Sorensen; Theo Vos; Jun Zhu; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Kaja M Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M Abdulle; Semaw Ferede Abera; Victor Aboyans; Biju Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Tom Achoki; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Ademola Lukman Adelekan; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Arnav Agarwal; Oluremi N Ajala; Tomi F Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Khurshid Alam; Noore K M Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Robert William Aldridge; Miguel Angel Alegretti; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Raghib Ali; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Elena Alvarez Martin; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Emmanuel A Ameh; Walid Ammar; Stephen Marc Amrock; Hjalte H Andersen; Gregory M Anderson; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Suleman Atique; Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Bolanle F Banigbe; Aleksandra Barac; Ryan M Barber; Suzanne L Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Tigist Assefa Bayou; Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Tolesa Bekele; Michelle L Bell; Aminu K Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabé; Balem Demtsu Betsu; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Samir Bhatt; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Boris Bikbov; Sait Mentes Birlik; Donal Bisanzio; Espen Bjertness; Jed D Blore; Rupert R A Bourne; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Alexandria Brown; Geoffrey Colin Buckle; Michael Burch; Zahid A Butt; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano; Rosario Cárdenas; David O Carpenter; Juan Jesus Carrero; Austin Carter; Daniel C Casey; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ruben Estanislao Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly Cercy; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G Ciobanu; Samantha M Colquhoun; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Solomon Abrha Damtew; Hadi Danawi; Rakhi Dandona; José Das Neves; Adrian C Davis; Pieter de Jager; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C Des Jarlais; Gabrielle A Deveber; Samath D Dharmaratne; Preet K Dhillon; Eric L Ding; Pratik Pinal Doshi; Kerrie E Doyle; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal Elyazar; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Talha A Farid; Carla Sofia E Sa Farinha; André Faro; Maryam S Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Joao C Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Joseph R A Fitchett; Nataliya Foigt; Richard C Franklin; Joseph Friedman; Thomas Fürst; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Parthasarathi Ganguly; Teshome Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Alemseged Aregay Gebru; Johanna M Geleijnse; Bradford D Gessner; Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Hebe N Gouda; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Demewoz Haile; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Jamie Hancock; Alexis J Handal; Graeme J Hankey; Hilda L Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Kimani M Harun; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J Hay; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Hans W Hoek; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Peter J Hotez; Damian G Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Cheng Huang; John J Huang; Hsiang Huang; Laetitia Huiart; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Bulat T Idrisov; Kaire Innos; Kathryn H Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Sun Ha Jee; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Vivekanand Jha; Guohong Jiang; Ying Jiang; Tariku Jibat; Ye Jin; Jost B Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ritul Kamal; Haidong Kan; Gagandeep Kang; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Amir Kasaeian; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda; Konstantin Kazanjan; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Andrew Haddon Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Abdur Rahman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Irma Khonelidze; Jagdish Khubchandani; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Niranjan Kissoon; Miia Kivipelto; Luke D Knibbs; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A Kudom; G. Anil Kumar; Michael J Kutz; Hmwe H Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Jennifer O Lam; Van C Lansingh; Anders Larsson; James Leigh; Ricky Leung; Yichong Li; Yongmei Li; M Patrice Lindsay; Patrick Y Liu; Shiwei Liu; Belinda K Lloyd; Warren D Lo; Giancarlo Logroscino; Nicola Low; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A Lyons; Stefan Ma; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahdi Mahdavi; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Chabila C Mapoma; Wagner Marcenes; Jose Martinez-Raga; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; Felix Masiye; John J McGrath; Peter A Meaney; Alem Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Alemayehu B Mekonnen; Yohannes Adama Melaku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A Memish; Walter Mendoza; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Francis Apolinary Mhimbira; Ted R Miller; Edward J Mills; Mojde Mirarefin; Awoke Misganaw; Charles N Mock; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Alireza Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez; Marcella Montico; Ami R Moore; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Lidia Morawska; Rintaro Mori; Ulrich O Mueller; Georgina A V Murphy; Srinivas Murthy; Jean B Nachega; Aliya Naheed; Kovin S Naidoo; Luigi Naldi; Devina Nand; Vinay Nangia; Subas Neupane; Charles R Newton; John N Newton; Marie Ng; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Peter Nguhiu; Quyen Le Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete; Ole F Norheim; Rosana E Norman; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Foluke Adetola Ojelabi; Pedro R Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; P.A. Mahesh; Eun-Kee Park; Hye-Youn Park; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Angel J Paternina Caicedo; Scott B Patten; João Mário Pedro; David M Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Daniel Pope; Svetlana Popova; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Rynaz H S Rabiee; Anwar Rafay; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Murugesan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja Rao; Amany H Refaat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Serge Resnikoff; Alex Reynolds; David Rojas-Rueda; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A Roth; Ambuj Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Rajesh Sagar; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Juan R Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S Santos; João Vasco Santos; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Edson E Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Kevin N Sheth; Kenji Shibuya; Hwashin Hyun Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shuie; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jonathan Silverberg; Edgar P Simard; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Joan B Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Luciano A Sposato; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Bruno F Sunguya; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L Sykes; Cassandra E I Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Bineyam Taye; Bemnet Amare Tedla; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Tesfaye Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kiran Thapa; Alan J Thomson; Andrew L Thorne-Lyman; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Bach Xuan Tran; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene; Abera Kenay Tura; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N Ukwaja; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Raj Kumar Verma; Francesco S Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Linhong Wang; Yanping Wang; Scott Weichenthal; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G Weintraub; Daniel J Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Tissa Wijeratne; Thomas Neil Williams; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A Wolfe; Ingrid Wolfe; Sungho Won; Mamo Wubshet; Qingyang Xiao; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Pengpeng Ye; Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Hajo Zeeb; Hao Zhang; Yong Zhao; Yingfeng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.
Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2017) Ryan M. Barber; Nancy Fullman; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Thomas Bollyky; Martin McKee; Ellen Nolte; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M. Abdulle; Ahmed Abdulahi Abdurahman; Semaw Ferede Abera; Biju Abraham; Girmatsion Fisseha Abreha; Kelemework Adane; Ademola Lukman Adelekan; Ifedayo Morayo O. Adetifa; Ashkan Afshin; Arnav Agarwal; Sanjay Kumar Agarwal; Sunilkumar Agarwal; Anurag Agrawal; Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri; Alireza Ahmadi; Kedir Yimam Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi F. Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Noore Alam; Sayed Saidul Alam; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Lily Alexander; Raghib Ali; Syed Danish Ali; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine Allen; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Elena Alvarez Martin; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Joshu Amo-Adjei; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Benjamin O. Anderson; Sofia Androudi; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Reza Assadi; Ayalew Astatkie; Tesfay Mehari Atey; Suleman Atique; Niguse Tadele Atnafu; Sachin R. Atre; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Avokpaho; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Ashish Awasthi; Nebiyu Negussu Ayele; Peter Azzopardi; Huda Omer Ba Saleem; Till Bärnighausen; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Amitava Banerjee; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne L. Barker-Collo; Lope H. Barrero; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Kaleab Baye; Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Yannick Béjot; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabé; Oscar Alberto Bernal; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Tariku Jibat Beyene; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Boris Bikbov; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Stan Biryukov; Donal Bisanzio; Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu; Dipan Bose; Michael Brainin; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Josip Car; Juan Jesus Carrero; Daniel Casey; Valeria Caso; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ferrán Catalá-López; Pedro Cecilio; Kelly Cercy; Fiona J. Charlson; Alan Z. Chen; Adrienne Chew; Mirriam Chibalabala; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal A. Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Megan S. Coggeshall; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Monica Cortinovis; John A. Crump; Koustuv Dalal; Hadi Danawi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Jose Das Neves; Gail Davey; Dragos V. Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Liana C. Del Gobbo; Borja Del Pozo-Cruz; Robert P. Dellavalle; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C. Des Jarlais; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Eric L. Ding; Klara Dokova; E. Ray Dorsey; Kerrie E. Doyle; Manisha Dubey; Rebecca Ehrenkranz; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Thomas Fürst; Imad D.A. Faghmous; Fanuel Belayneh Bekele Fanuel; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sa Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Jefferson G. Fernandes; João C. Fernandes; Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Thomas D. Fleming; Nataliya Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Mohammad H. Forouzanfar; Richard C. Franklin; Joseph Frostad; Tsegaye Tewelde Ghiwot; Emmanuela Gakidou; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Wayne Gao; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Teshome Gebre; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Mengistu Welday Gebremichael; Alemseged Aregay Gebru; Amha Admasie Gelaye; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Katherine B. Gibney; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Giorgia Giussani; William W. Godwin; Audra Gold; Ellen M. Goldberg; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Nicholas Graetz; Felix Greaves; Max Griswold; Peter Imre Guban; Harish Chander Gugnani; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Demewoz Haile; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Alex Hakuzimana; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Mitiku Teshome Hambisa; Samer Hamidi; Mouhanad Hammami; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Habtamu Abera Hareri; Josep Maria Haro; Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Delia Hendrie; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Hans W. Hoek; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Aung Soe Htet; Guoqing Hu; Hsiang Huang; John J. Huang; Bethany M. Huntley; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Bogdan Vasile Ileanu; Kaire Innos; Asnake Ararsa Irenso; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic; Peter James; Spencer Lewis James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Sudha P. Jayaraman; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Vivekanand Jha; Denny John; Catherine Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Knud Juel; Zubair Kabir; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ritul Kamal; Haidong Kan; Andre Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Anshul Kastor; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Konstantin Kazanjan; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Andrew Haddon Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Maia Kereselidze; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim Khalil; Abdur Rahman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah Khoja; Irma Khonelidze; Jagdish Khubchandani; Getiye Dejenu Kibret; Daniel Kim; Pauline Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Niranjan Kissoon; Miia Kivipelto; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Anneli Kolk; Dhaval Kolte; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael Kravchenko; Sanjay Krishnaswami; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Ernst J. Kuipers; Veena S. Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Fekede Asefa Kumsa; Michael Kutz; Hmwe H. Kyu; Anton Carl Jonas Lager; Aparna Lal; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Qing Lan; Sinead M. Langan; Van C. Lansingh; Heidi J. Larson; Anders Larsson; Dennis Odai Laryea; Asma Abdul Latif; Alicia Elena Beatriz Lawrynowicz; Janet L. Leasher; James Leigh; Mall Leinsalu; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Ricky Leung; Miriam Levi; Xiaofeng Liang; Stephen S. Lim; Margaret Lind; Shai Linn; Steven E. Lipshultz; Patrick Liu; Yang Liu; Loon-Tzian Lo; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Scott A. Lorch; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahdi Mahdavi; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Lorenzo G. Mantovani; Tsegahun Manyazewal; Chabila C. Mapoma; Wagner Marcenes; Guy B. Marks; Neal Marquez; Jose Martinez-Raga; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; João Massano; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Claire McNellan; Peter A. Meaney; Alem Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Toni Meier; Alemayehu B. Mekonnen; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Ziad A. Memish; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengiste; Mubarek Abera Mengistie; Bereket Gebremichael Menota; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Renata Micha; Anoushka Millear; Edward J. Mills; Shawn Minnig; Mojde Mirarefin; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Charles N. Mock; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Shafiu Mohammed; Sanjay K. Mohanty; Ali H. Mokdad; Glen Liddell D. Mola; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Marcella Montico; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Rintaro Mori; Mark Moses; Ulrich O. Mueller; Srinivas Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Jean B. Nachega; Chie Nagata; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Luigi Naldi; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Ionut Negoi; Sudan Prasad Neupane; Charles R. Newton; Marie Ng; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Josephine Wanjiku Ngunjiri; Grant Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Sandra Nolte; Marika Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques N. Noubiap; Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew Toyin Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen E. Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; John Nelson Opio; Eyal Oren; Alberto Ortiz; Richard H. Osborne; Majdi Osman; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Amanda W. Pain; Smita Pakhale; Elizabeth Palomares Castillo; Adrian Pana; Christina Papachristou; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Tejas Patel; George C. Patton; Deepak Paudel; Vinod K. Paul; Neil Pearce; David M. Pereira; Rogelio Perez-Padilla; Fernando Perez-Ruiz; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Christine Pinho; Suzanne Polinder; Constance D. Pond; V. Prakash; Manorama Purwar; Mostafa Qorbani; D. Alex Quistberg; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Kazem Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Usha Ram; Saleem M. Rana; Zane Rankin; Paturi Vishnupriya Rao; Puja C. Rao; Salman Rawaf; Maria Albertina Santiago Rego; Marissa Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Antonio L. Ribeiro; Hirbo Shore Roba; Mohammad Bagher Rokni; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A. Roth; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Nawal K. Roy; Perminder S. Sachdev; Ben Benasco Sackey; Mohammad Yahya Saeedi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Joshua A. Salomon; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Ramon Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Logan Sandar; Itamar S. Santos; João Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Mete I. Saylan; Ben Schöttker; Aletta E. Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Abdulbasit Musa Seid; Canaan Negash Seifu; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Berrin Serdar; Edson E. Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Katya Anne Shackelford; Amira Shaheen; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Mansour Shamsipour; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Jayendra Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Peilin Shi; Mika Shigematsu; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Haitham Shoman; Mark G. Shrime; Ephrem Lejore Sibamo Sibamo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Abiy Hiruye Sinke; Aklilu Endalamaw Sinshaw; Vegard Skirbekk; Karen Sliwa; Alison Smith; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir Soneji; Joan B. Soriano; Tatiane Cristina Moraes Sousa; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Caitlyn Steiner; Sabine Steinke; Mark Andrew Stokes; Saverio Stranges; Mark Strong; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Muawiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rizwan Abdulkader Suliankatchi; Jiandong Sun; Patrick Sur; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Getachew Redae Taffere; Roberto Tchio Talongwa; Musharaf Tarajia; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Stephanie Teeple; Teketo Kassaw Tegegne; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tesfalidet Tekelab; Dejen Yemane Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema; J.S. Thakur; Alan J. Thomson; Taavi Tillmann; Tenaw Yimer Tiruye; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Miguel Tortajada; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Abera Kenay Tura; Uche S. Uchendu; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A. Uthman; Job F.M. Van Boven; Rita Van Dingenen; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey K. Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Joseph A. Wagner; Tolassa Wakayo; Stephen G. Waller; Judd L. Walson; Haidong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; David A. Watkins; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Chi-Pang Wen; Andrea Werdecker; Joshua Wesana; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; James D. Wilkinson; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Belete Getahun Woldeyes; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Sungho Won; Abdulhalik Workicho; Shimelash Bitew Workie; Mamo Wubshet; Denis Xavier; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Mohsen Yaghoubi; Bereket Yakob; Lijing L. Yan; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Hassen Hamid Yimam; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio; Tomas Zapata; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Sanjay Zodpey; Leo Zoeckler; Liesl Joanna Zuhlke; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
(Nature Research, 2020) Damaris K. Kinyoki; Jennifer M. Ross; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Sandra B. Munro; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi; Masoumeh Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Ahmed Abdelalim; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Maryam Adabi; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Posi Emmanuel Aduroja; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mohammad Aghaali; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Olufemi Ajumobi; Chalachew Genet Akal; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Ziyad Al-Aly; Samiah Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Muhammad Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Afshin Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Azmeraw T. Amare; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever Loreche Amit; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ephrem Mebrahtu Araya; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Samaneh Asgari; Babak Asghari; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Anemaw A. Asrat; Bahar Ataeinia; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared A. Asmare Aynalem; Abbas Azadmehr; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mohamad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin A. Baig; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Zahra Baradaran-Seyed; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Miguel A. Barboza; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lingkan Barua; Huda Basaleem; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Mulat Tirfie Bayih; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yibeltal Alemu Bekele; Derrick A. Bennett; Dessalegn Ajema Berbada; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Robert S. Bernstein; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bharadwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Setognal Birara; Minuye Biniam Biniam Birhane; Minyichil Birhanu; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Somayeh Bohlouli; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Antonio M. Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Ester Cerin; Collins Chansa; Jaykaran Charan; Pranab Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Ali Reza Chavshin; Mohammad Chehrazi; Tesfaye Yitna Chichiabellu; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Michael L. Collison; Michael A. Cork; Natalie Cormier; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera M. Costa; Abel Fekadu Fekadu Dadi; Baye Dagnew; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Claudio Dávila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Rupak Desai; Beruk Berhanu Desalegn; Assefa Desalew; Aniruddha Deshpande; Sagnik Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Preeti Dhillon; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianati Nasab; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Girmaye Deye Dinsa; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Huyen Phuc Do; Paul Narh Doku; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Manisha Dubey; Bereket Duko Adema; Susanna J. Dunachie; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Durães; Lucas Earl; Hamed Ebrahimzadeh Leylabadlo; Aziz Eftekhari; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Yasser Mohamed El-Sherbiny; Iqbal R. F. Elyazar; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Adane Endalew; Melese Linger Endalifer; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Jessica Fanzo; Mohammad Farahmand; Anwar Faraj; Sajjad Farashi; Mohammad Fareed; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Hossein Farzam; Syeda Sadia Fatima; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Netsanet Fentahun; Tomas Y. Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; João C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Carsten Flohr; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Jana Förster; Joel Msafiri Francis; Takeshi Fukumoto; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Hadush Gebremariam; Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam; Ketema Bizuwork Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie; Gebretsadkan G. G. Gebretsadik; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Agegnehu Bante Getenet; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Mahsa Ghajarzadeh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Srinivas Goli; Nelson G. M. Gomes; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C. Goulart; Arunkumar Govindakarnavar; Ayman Grada; Michal Grivna; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Michael Tamene Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Yadollah Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Ninuk Hariyani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md. Mehedi Hasan; Milad Hasankhani; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Maryam Hashemian; Soheil Hassanipour; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Corinna Hawkes; Khezar Hayat; Desta Haftu Hayelom; Behnam Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Mario Herrero; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hagos D. de Hidru; Chi Linh Hoang; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Gillian Hollerich; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Sung Hwi Hong; Praveen Hoogar; Masako Horino; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Neda Izadi; Jalil Jaafari; Anelisa Jaca; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Nader Jafari Balalami; Morteza Jafarinia; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Farzad Jalilian; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Fyezah Jehan; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Peng Jia; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Kimberly B. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Hamed Kalani; Leila L. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Umesh Kapil; Neeti Kapoor; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd A. Karim; Surendra Karki; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Andre Pascal Kengne; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Mojtaba Khaksarian; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Asad Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Mohammad Saud Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir Khater; Mona M. Khater; Mahalqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Maryam Khazaei-Pool; Mohammad Khazaei; Salman Khazaei; Mohammad Taghi Khodayari; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Roba Khundkar; Ali Kiadaliri; Neda Kianipour; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Shivakumar K. M. Kondlahalli; Ali Koolivand; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Kris J. Krohn; Nuworza Kugbey; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Oluwatosin Kuti; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Deepesh P. Lad; Aparna Lal; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Mostafa Leili; Ian D. Letourneau; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Joshua Longbottom; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mohammed Madadin; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ali Manafi; Farzad Manafi; Navid Manafi; Narendar Dawanu Manohar; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Laurie B. Marczak; Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Benjamin K. Mayala; Mohsen Mazidi; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Freshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen; Teferi Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomasz Miazgowski; Neda Milevska Kostova; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; G.K. Mini; Seyed Mostafa Mir; Mohammad Miri; Hamed Mirjalali; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Efat Mohamadi; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K. Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Amin Mokari; Ali H. Mokdad; Julio Cesar Montañez; Pablo A. Montero-Zamora; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Mohammad Moradi-Joo; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F. Mosser; Simin Mouodi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Dariush Mozaffarian; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Christopher J. L. Murray; G.V.S. Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Behnam Nabavizadeh; Mehdi Naderi; Girish N. Nadkarni; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Jobert Richie Nansseu; K. M. Venkat Narayan; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Vinod Nayak; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Dabere Nigatu; Yesdhambel T. Nigatu; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Vuong Minh Nong; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Bogdan Oancea; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Muktar Omer Omer; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Orish Ebere Orisakwe; Alberto Ortiz; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Mahesh P. A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Hadi Parsian; Tahereh Pashaei; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Mona Pathak; Sanghamitra Pati; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Kebreab Paulos; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; William A. Petri; Brandon V. Pickering; David M. Pigott; Majid Pirestani; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Reza Pourmirza Kalhori; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Sergio I. Prada; Liliana Preotescu; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Davide Rasella; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Sarah E. Ray; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Nima Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Alina Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Elias Merdassa Roro; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Enrico Rubagotti; Anas M. Saad; Seyedmohammad Saadatagah; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Siamak Sabour; Ehsan Sadeghi; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Saeed Safari; Yahya Safari; Hamid Safarpour; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Farkhonde Salehi; Saleh Salehi Zahabi; Hosni Salem; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Itamar S. Santos; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Alyssa N. Sbarra; Megan F. Schipp; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Amir Shamshirian; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Rajesh Sharma; Hatem Samir Shehata; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Ambrish Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Virendra Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pankaj Kumar Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Amin Soheili; Bija Soleymani; Farzaneh Soltani; Shahin Soltani; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Adel Spotin; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Rajni Kant Kant Srivastava; Antonina Starodubova; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Berhane Fseha Teklehaimanot; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Nihal Thomas; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Khanh Bao Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Riaz Uddin; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Ushotanefe Useh; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Marco Vacante; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Pascual R. Valdez; John VanderHeide; Elena Varavikova; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Yousef Veisani; Srinivasaraghavan Venkatesh; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Simone Vidale; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Sebastian Vollmer; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Haidong Wang; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Andrea Werdecker; Taweewat Wiangkham; Kirsten E. Wiens; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Ai-Min Wu; Gelin Xu; Abbas Yadegar; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Alex Yeshaneh; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Yoosik Youm; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Hadi Zarafshan; Nejimu Biza Zepro; Taddese Alemu Zerfu; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Xiu-Ju Zhao; Sanjay Zodpey; Kamiar Zomorodian; Francis Bruno Zotor; Ashkan Afshin; Simon I. Hay
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, policy makers and public health agencies in their efforts to address this global childhood syndemic. © 2020, The Author(s).
Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2020) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; John Everett Mumford; Megan Knight; Celine M Barthelemy; Cristiana Abbafati; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R M Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Abdelrahman I Abushouk; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie Adelson; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M Advani; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Samuel B Albertson; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A Almasri; Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever L Amit; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Catherine M Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A Asadi-Pooya; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Getie Lake Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Peter S Azzopardi; Darshan B B; Ebrahim Babaee; Ashish D Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Simachew Animen Bante; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L Bell; Isabela M Bensenor; Adam E Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S Bernstein; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Moses John Bockarie; Somayeh Bohlouli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Srinivasa Rao Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Oliver J Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Andrew M Briggs; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Christopher R Cederroth; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Angela Y Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Ken Lee Chin; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T Chung; Liliana G Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Kelly Compton; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Saad M A Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jiregna Darega Gela; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Ilse N Dippenaar; Hoa Thi Do; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; David Edvardsson; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Islam Y Elgendy; Iqbal RF Elyazar; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Tamer Farag; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L Fisher; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; João M Furtado; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Emmanuela Gakidou; Natalie C Galles; Silvano Gallus; William M Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot; Leake G Gebremeskel; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K Gill; Themba G Ginindza; Mojgan Gitimoghaddam; Giorgia Giussani; Mustefa Glagn; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Salime Goharinezhad; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Teklemariam Gultie; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Randah R Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Chieh Han; Hannah Han; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J Hankey; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J Havmoeller; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Claudiu Herteliu; Thomas R Hird; Hung Chak Ho; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Nobuyuki Horita; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Tanvir M Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Jalil Jaafari; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Morteza Jafarinia; Deepa Jahagirdar; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Hosna Janjani; Tahereh Javaheri; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S Ji; Peng Jia; Yetunde O John-Akinola; Jost B Jonas; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Seyed M Karimi; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Gbenga A Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Saleh Khader; Mohammad Khammarnia; Maseer Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M Khater; Mona M Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Cameron J Kneib; Jonathan M Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Stefan Kohler; Jacek A Kopec; Anna V Korotkova; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Anirudh Kotlo; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Kris J Krohn; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Jeffrey V Lazarus; Jorge R Ledesma; Paul H Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Andrew T Leever; Kate E LeGrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Shanshan Li; Stephen S Lim; Lee-Ling Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D Lopez; Platon D Lopukhov; Paulo A Lotufo; Alton Lu; Jianing Ma; Mohammed Madadin; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas; Shokofeh Maleki; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Claudia I Mastrogiacomo; Manu Raj Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Tuomo J Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Maryam Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Philip B Mitchell; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F Mosser; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Moses K Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Kiirithio N Ngari; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F Norheim; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Adrian Otoiu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T Olagunju; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Mojisola Morenike Oluwasanu; Ahmed Omar Bali; Muktar Omer Omer; Kanyin L Ong; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Doris V V Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Sergej M Ostojic; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao. Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan; Mona Pathak; George C Patton; Sagun Paudel; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Spencer A Pease; Amy E Peden; Alyssa Pennini; Emmanuel K Peprah; Jeevan Pereira; David M Pigott; Thomas Pilgrim; Tessa M Pilz; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Reza Pourmirza Kalhori; Akram Pourshams; Sergio I Prada; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Vahid Rashedi; Goura Kishor Rath; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Christian Razo; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Nima Rezaei; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniel Cury Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Nicholas L S Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Enrico Rubagotti; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Ehsan Sadeghi; Yahya Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Marwa R Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Joshua Salomon; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Miloje Savic; Susan M Sawyer; Deepak Saxena; Alyssa N Sbarra; Lauren E Schaeffer; Silvia Schiavolin; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Fablina Sharara; Hamid Sharifi; David H Shaw; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; B Suresh Kumar Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Mark G Shrime; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Radoslaw Sierpinski; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Kyle E Simpson; Jasvinder A Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Emma U R Smith; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Jeffrey D Stanaway; Nicholas Steel; Caroline Stein; Mark A Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Iyad Sultan; Łukasz Szumowski; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Frank C Tanser; Md Ismail Tareque; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Whitney L Teagle; Fabrizio Tediosi; Yonas Getaye Getaye Tefera; Freweini Gebrearegay Tela; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Bhaskar Thakur; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Marcos Roberto Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara Travillian; Christopher E Troeger; Lorainne Tudor Car; Riaz Uddin; Irfan Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Olalekan A Uthman; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Avina Vongpradith; Theo Vos; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K Walters; Richard G Wamai; Haidong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Robert G Weintraub; Jordan Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Lauren B Wilner; Gebremariam Woldu; Charles D A Wolfe; Ai-Min Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Yang Xie; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Jamal A Yearwood; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Siddhesh Zadey; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Kaleab Alemayehu Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Yingxi Zhao; Peng Zheng; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Bianca S Zlavog; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license