Browsing by Author "Harish Chander C. Gugnani"

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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; Degu Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Y. Abyu; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Dominic Agius; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Ammar Albujeer; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Samia Alhabib; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Ali Almasi; Fatma Al-Maskari; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Kebede Amenu; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Johan Ärnlöv; Monika Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Peter S. Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Amitava Banerjee; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Robert J. Battista; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Adugnaw Berhane; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Anil Bhansali; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Helen Bitew; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Espen Bjertness; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Gene Bukhman; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Alanur Çavlin; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Hans De Steur; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Tim Robert Driscoll; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Erika Eldrenkamp; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Jessica Fanzo; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Hossein Farzam; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Wubalem Fekadu; Rachel Feldman; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Ron T. Gansevoort; Ana Cristina Garcia; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Sefonias Getachew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Max G. Griswold; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Francis Guillemin; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Giang Hai Ha; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Michael Tamene Haile; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Behzad Heydarpour; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Martha Híjar; Hans W. Hoek; Daniel J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Caitlyn Hughes; Chantal K. Huynh; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Neda Izadi; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Amr A. Jamal; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; K. Madhanraj; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; K.C. Prakash; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Helen W. Kiarie; Getiye D. Kibret; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Margaret N. Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A. Kudom; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carl Lachat; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Abraham K. Lagat; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Qing Lan; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Anders O. Larsson; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S. Lassi; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Janet L. Leasher; Georgy Lebedev; Jorge R. Ledesma; James B. Lee; Paul H. Lee; Andrew T. Leever; James Leigh; Mall Leinsalu; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Lydia R. Lucchesi; Ronan A. Lyons; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Srikanth Mangalam; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C. O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Tesfa Mekonen; Tefera C. Chane Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T. N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Gert B. M. Mensink; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Shawn P. Minnig; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Babak Moazen; Ali Akbar Moghadamnia; Bahram Mohajer; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Murali B. V. Mohan; Viswanathan Mohan; Farnam Mohebi; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Mahmoudreza Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-da-Costa; Naho Morisaki; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Marilita M. Moschos; W Cliff Mountjoy-Venning; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Oumer Sada S. Muhammed; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Erin C. Mullany; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Manoj Murhekar; G.V.S. Murthy; Srinivas Murthy; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Jean B. Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Kovin Naidoo; Gurudatta Naik; Nitish Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Haseeb Nawaz; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Solomon Gedlu Nigatu; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Marika Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Okechukwu Samuel Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Kelechi E. Oladimeji; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Ong; Anu Mary Oommen; John Nelson Opio; Eyal Oren; Andrei Oros; Doris D. V. Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo; Erika Ota; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Wen-Harn Pan; Adrian Pana; Basant Kumar Panda; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Nikolaos Papantoniou; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D. H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Deepak Paudel; Katherine R. Paulson; Neil Pearce; Emmanuel K. Peprah; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Aslam Pervaiz; Konrad Pesudovs; William A. Petri; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Martin Pletcher; Constance Dimity Pond; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Manita Pyakurel; Mostafa Qorbani; Reginald Quansah; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Md Shafiur Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Saleem M. Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-García; K Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Cesar Reis; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L. S. Roberts; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Gregory A. Roth; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; George Mugambage Ruhago; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mete Saylan; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione J. C. Schneider; Ben Schöttker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Christopher J.L. Murray; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Vinay Srinivasan; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Nasrin Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia V. Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Ali Almasi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Nicholas Arian; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Reza Assadi; Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey; Suleman Atique; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B. Ayuk; Peter S. Azzopardi; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Ezra Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Gilles Bergeron; Adugnaw Berhane; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Tuhin Biswas; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Archie Bleyer; Berrak Bora Basara; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Jerry D. Brewer; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Roy Burstein; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Alanur Çavlin; Ester Cerin; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Sara Conti; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Petra Cukelj; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Eric L. Ding; Girmaye Deye Dinsa; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kate A. Dolan; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Tamer Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Carla Sofia E. SáFarinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Kairsten A. Fay; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Fariba Feizy; Ama P. Fenny; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Thomas Fürst; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Gregory M. Garcia; Miguel Á. Garcia-Gordillo; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Peter Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Jingwen Guo; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. 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Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Asnake Ararsa Irenso; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. 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Mamun; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Ana-Laura Manda; Srikanth Mangalam; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Shakhnazarova Marina; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Melvin B. Marzan; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Felix Masiye; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; John J. McGrath; Suresh Mehata; Sanjay Madhav Mehendale; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Saeed Mehrzadi; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Yode Miangotar; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. 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Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license