Browsing by Author "Kashish Malhotra"

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Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022
(Elsevier Inc., 2023) George A. Mensah; Valentin Fuster; Christopher J.L. Murray; Gregory A. Roth; George A. Mensah; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Mohammadreza Abbasian; Foad Abd-Allah; Ashkan Abdollahi; Mohammad Abdollahi; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Auwal Abdullahi; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Armita Abedi; Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Salahdein Aburuz; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Tigist Demssew Adane; Nicola J. Adderley; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Bashir Aden; Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa; Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Fatemeh Afrashteh; Shadi Afyouni; Saira Afzal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Antonella Agodi; Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Danish Ahmad; Firdos Ahmad; Muayyad M. Ahmad; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Syed Anees Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Karolina Akinosoglou; Moein Ala; Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal; Samer O. Alalalmeh; Ziyad Al-Aly; Nazmul Alam; Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer; Alaa Alashi; Mohammed Albashtawy; Mohammad T. AlBataineh; Haileselasie Berhane Alema; Sharifullah Alemi; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Khalid F. Alhabib; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Mohammed Usman Ali; Rafat Ali; Syed Shujait Shujait Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Reyhaneh Alikhani; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Wael Almahmeed; Sabah Al-Marwani; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Farrukh Jawad Alvi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Hassan Alwafi; Hany Aly; Prince M. Amegbor; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Alireza Amindarolzarbi; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Sohrab Amiri; Enrico Ammirati; Tanu Anand; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Abhishek Anil; Golnoosh Ansari; Philip Emeka Anyanwu; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Geminn Louis Carace Apostol; Jalal Arabloo; Mosab Arafat; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Olatunde Aremu; Benedetta Armocida; Johan Ärnlöv; Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe; Anton A. Artamonov; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Judie Arulappan; Idowu Thomas Aruleba; Ashokan Arumugam; Zahra Aryan; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Thomas Astell-Burt; Mahshid Ataei; Mohammad Athar; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe; Amdehiwot A. Aynalem; Zahra Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Abraham Samuel Babu; Muhammad Badar; Feras Bader; Ashish D. Badiye; Arvind Bagga; Sara Bagherieh; Farshad Bahrami Asl; Ruhai Bai; Jennifer L. Baker; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Abdulaziz T. Bako; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Saliu A. Balogun; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Kiran Bam; MacIej Banach; Soham Bandyopadhyay; Biswajit Banik; Palash Chandra Banik; Kannu Bansal; Hamid Reza Baradaran; Franca Barbic; Martina Barchitta; Mainak Bardhan; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Sandra Barteit; Lingkan Barua; Azadeh Bashiri; Mohsen Bayati; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Emad Behboudi; Amir Hossein Behnoush; Yannick Béjot; Sefealem Assefa Belay; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Michelle L. Bell; Luis Belo; Salaheddine Bendak; Bright Benfor; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Catherine P. Benziger; Azizullah Beran; Adam E. Berman; Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Habtamu B. Beyene; Kebede A. Beyene; Akshaya Srikanth Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Prarthna V. Bhardwaj; Vivek Bhat; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Jasvinder Singh Bhatti; Boris Bikbov; Andras Bikov; Marina G. Birck; Bijit Biswas; Saeid Bitaraf; Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin; Eyob Ketema Bogale; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Archith Boloor; Milad Bonakdar Hashemi; Hamed Borhany; Edward J. Boyko; Dejana Braithwaite; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Susanne Breitner; Andrey Briko; Lemma N. Bulto; Yasser Bustanji; Zahid A. Butt; Daniela Calina; Fan Cao; Rosario Cárdenas; Sinclair Carr; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Márcia Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Luca Cegolon; Ester Cerin; Yaacoub Chahine; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Mei Yen Chan; Raymond N.C. Chan; Periklis Charalampous; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; An-Tian Chen; Catherine S. Chen; Haowei Chen; Suma Sri Chennapragada; Derek S. Chew; Gerald Chi; Patrick R. Ching; Abdulaal Chitheer; So Mi Jemma Cho; William C.S. Cho; Bryan Chong; Hitesh Chopra; Rahul Choudhary; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Rajiv Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Arrigo Francesco Giuseppe Cicero; Zinhle Cindi; Iolanda Cioffi; Kaleb Coberly; Sean Coffey; Alyssa Columbus; Joao Conde; Sara Conti; Barbara Corso; Sandra Cortés; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A.S. Couto; Emma Johnson Cowart; Michael H. Criqui; Jessica A. Cruz; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Zhaoli Dai; Maxwell Ayindenaba Dalaba; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Saswati Das; Subasish Das; Mohsen Dashti; Mohammad Dashtkoohi; Maedeh Dastmardi; Kairat Davletov; Aklilu Tamire Debele; Shayom Debopadhaya; Nicole K. DeCleene; Ivan Delgado-Enciso; Juana Maria Delgado-Saborit; Berecha Hundessa Demessa; Andreas K. Demetriades; Xinlei Deng; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nebiyu Dereje Dereje; Awoke Masrie Asrat Derese; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Rupak Desai; Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Sourav Dey; Vishal R. Dhulipala; Daniel Diaz; Michael J. Diaz; Delaney D. Ding; Ricardo Jorge Dinis-Oliveira; Thanh Chi Do; Thao Huynh Phuong Do; Saeid Doaei; Sushil Dohare; Wanyue Dong; Mario D'Oria; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Abdel Douiri; Robert Kokou Dowou; Ashel Chelsea Dsouza; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Viola Dsouza; Mi Du; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Sulagna Dutta; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic; Alireza Ebrahimi; Defi Efendi; Ferry Efendi; Diyan Ermawan Effendi; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Frank J. Elgar; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Mehdi Emamverdi; Theophilus I. Emeto; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Tesfahun C. Eshetie; Juan Espinosa-Montero; Farshid Etaee; Natalia Fabin; Ibtihal Fadhil; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Luca Falzone; Carla Sofia E Sá Farinha; MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris; Andre Faro; Mithila Faruque; Medhat Farwati; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Pooria Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Pietro Ferrara; Nuno Ferreira; Irina Filip; Laura Fleszar; David Flood; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Diogo A. Fonseca; Carla Fornari; Matteo Foschi; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Blima Fux; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A. Gadanya; Shilpa Gaidhane; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Emmanuela Gakidou; Yaseen Galali; Silvano Gallus; Aravind P. Gandhi; Balasankar Ganesan; Rupesh K. Gautam; Miglas W.W. Gebregergis; Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Urge Gerema; Alireza Ghajar; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohammad Reza Ghasemi; Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi; Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh; Ramy Mohamed Ghazy; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Arun Digambarrao Ghuge; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ali Golchin; Pouya Goleij; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C. Goulart; Anmol Goyal; Kashish Goyal; Shi-Yang Guan; Giovanni Guarducci; Mesay Dechasa Gudeta; Avirup Guha; Stefano Guicciardi; David Gulisashvili; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Cui Guo; Anish Kumar Gupta; Bhawna Gupta; Indarchand Ratanlal Gupta; Kartik Gupta; Mohak Gupta; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Renu Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vijai Kumar Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Lami Gurmessa; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Farrokh Habibzadeh; Mostafa Hadei; Helia Sadat Haeri Boroojeni; Aram Halimi; Sebastian Haller; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Nadia M. Hamdy; Samer Hamidi; Chieh Han; Qiuxia Han; Graeme J. Hankey; Md. Abdul Hannan; Arief Hargono; Josep Maria Haro; Faizul Hasan; Ikramul Hasan; Hamidreza Hasani; Maryam Hashemian; Md Saquib Hasnain; Amr Hassan; Ikrama Hassan; Johannes Haubold; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Youssef Hbid; Omar E. Hegazi; Tadele Yohannes Hegena; Mohammad Heidari; Bartosz Helfer; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Hamed Hesami; Kamran Hessami; Keyvan Heydari; Kamal Hezam; Yuta Hiraike; Nguyen Quoc Hoan; Ramesh Holla; Md Mahbub Hossain; Md. Belal Hossain; Hassan Hosseinzadeh; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Michael Hultström; Hong-Han Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Khalid S. Ibrahim; Oluwatope Olaniyi Idowu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Muhammad Iqhrammullah; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Faisal Ismail; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; J. Linda Merin; Jalil Jaafari; Louis Jacob; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Khushleen Jaggi; Haitham Jahrami; Akhil Jain; Nityanand Jain; Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Roland Dominic G. Jamora; Nilofer Javadi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Rime Jebai; Rebuma Sorsa Jeben; Sun Ha Jee; Anil K. Jha; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Heng Jiang; Yinzi Jin; Yash B. Jobanputra; Catherine Owens Johnson; Mohammad Jokar; Tamas Joo; Abel Joseph; Nitin Joseph; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Farima Kahe; Rizwan Kalani; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Farnaz Kalantar; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Sanjay Kalra; Ashwin Kamath; Sagarika Kamath; Arun Kamireddy; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Arun R. Kanmanthareddy; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi; Sushil Kumar Kansal; Daniel John Kapner; Sitanshu Sekhar Kar; Paschalis Karakasis; Prabin Karki; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo; Hengameh Kasraei; Eskeziaw Abebe Kassahun; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Neda Kaydi; Foad Kazemi; Sina Kazemian; Sara Kazeminia; Jessica A. Kerr; Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot; Mohammad Keykhaei; Mohamad Mehdi Khadembashiri; Mohammad Amin Khadembashiri; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Himanshu Khajuria; Amirmohammad Khalaji; Nauman Khalid; Alireza Khalilian; Rovshan Khalilov; Asaduzzaman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Mohammad Jobair Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Yusra H. Khan; Mahammed Ziauddin Khan Suheb; Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi; Khaled Khatab; Sorour Khateri; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Khalid A. Kheirallah; Feriha Fatima Khidri; Saeid Kian; Zemene Demelash Kifle; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Farzad Kompani; Gerbrand Koren; Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Hare Krishna; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; Md Abdul Kuddus; Mohammed Kuddus; Mukhtar Kulimbet; Vishnutheertha Kulkarni; Akshay Kumar; Ashish Kumar; Naveen Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Rahul Kumar; Netsanet Bogale Kumsa; Kunle Rotimi Kunle; Dian Kusuma; Ilias Kyriopoulos; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Muhammad Awwal Ladan; Lucie Laflamme; Chandrakant Lahariya; Arista Lahiri; Daphne Teck Ching Lai; Tea Lallukka; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Francesco Lanfranchi; Bagher Larijani; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Kamaluddin Latief; Kaveh Latifinaibin; Jerrald Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Khuong Le; Long Khanh Dao Le; Nhi Huu Hanh Le; Thao Thi Thu Le; Trang Diep Thanh Le; Trang Thi Bich Le; Caterina Ledda; Munjae Lee; Paul H. Lee; Seung Won Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Mall Leinsalu; Matilde Leonardi; Temesgen L. Lerango; An Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Wei Li; Xiaopan Li; Yichong Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Ro-Ting Lin; Megan Lindstrom; Shai Linn; Gang Liu; Simin Liu; Xiaofeng Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Katherine M. Livingstone; Erand Llanaj; Platon D. Lopukhov; Arianna Maever Loreche; László Lorenzovici; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Alessandra Lugo; Zheng Feei Ma; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ralph Maddison; Javier A. Magaña Gómez; Julien Magne; D.R. Mahadeshwara Prasad; Mehrdad Mahalleh; Mansour Adam Mahmoud; Elham Mahmoudi; Behnaz Mahmoudvand; Omar Mohamed Makram; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Reza Malekzadeh; Kashish Malhotra; Iram Malik; Muhammad Sajeel Ahmed Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Aseer Manilal; Yosef Manla; Yasaman Mansoori; Borhan Mansouri; Pejman Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Hamid Reza Marateb; Mirko Marino; Daniela Martini; Santi Martini; Sharmeen Maryam; Roy Rillera Marzo; Alireza Masoudi; Sahar Masoudi; Clara N. Matei; Yasith Mathangasinghe; Elezebeth Mathews; Manu Raj Mathur; Jishanth Mattumpuram; Richard James Maude; Andrea Maugeri; Mahsa Mayeli; Mohsen Mazidi; John J. McGrath; Steven M. McPhail; Enkeleint A. Mechili; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad; Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Belayneh Mengist; Sultan Ayoub Meo; Haftu Asmerom Meresa; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda; Sachith Mettananda; Laurette Mhlanga; Tianyue Mi; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Neema W. Minja; Pouya Mir Mohammad Sadeghi; Niloofar Mirdamadi; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Prasanna Mithra; Zahra Moghimi; Jama Mohamed; Mouhand F.H. Mohamed; Nouh Saad Mohamed; Soheil Mohammadi; Hussen Mohammed; Mustapha Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Hossein Molavi Vardanjani; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Fateme Montazeri; AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf; Yousef Moradi; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Negar Morovatdar; Shane Douglas Morrison; Jakub Morze; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Amirmahdi Mostofinejad; Vincent Mougin; Parsa Mousavi; Seyed Ehsan Mousavi; Dariush Mozaffarian; Ahmed Msherghi; Lorenzo Muccioli; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Sumoni Mukherjee; Kavita Munjal; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Sathish Muthu; Julius C. Mwita; Woojae Myung; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Ganesh R. Naik; Gurudatta Naik; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Mohammad Sadeq Najafi; Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Shumaila Nargus; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gustavo G. Nascimento; Hadis Nasoori; Zuhair S. Natto; Javaid Nauman; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Vinod C. Nayak; Hadush Negash; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Reza Nejad Shahrokh Abadi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Chakib Nejjari; Mohammad Hadi Nematollahi; Samata Nepal; Nawi Ng; Dang H. Nguyen; Phat Tuan Nguyen; Van Thanh Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Shawn S. Nijjar; Muhammad A. Nizam; Efaq Ali Noman; Shuhei Nomura; Mamoona Noreen; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Dieta Nurrika; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Martin James O'Donnell; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; James Odhiambo Oguta; Sylvester Reuben Okeke; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Lawrence Okidi; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Patrick Godwin Okwute; Andrew T. Olagunju; Muideen Tunbosun Olaiya; Matifan Dereje Olana; Matthew Idowu Olatubi; Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira; Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Yinka Doris Oluwafemi; Gideon Olamilekan Oluwatunase; Goran Latif Omer; Mohammad Mehdi Ommati; Kanyin Liane Ong; Sokking Ong; Kenneth Ikenna Onyedibe; Michal Ordak; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Esteban Ortiz-Prado; Wael M.S. Osman; Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh Padukudru; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mahsa Pahlavikhah Varnosfaderani; Tamás Palicz; Raffaele Palladino; Feng Pan; Hai-Feng Pan; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Paraskevi Papadopoulou; Seoyeon Park; Roberto Passera; Jay Patel; Shankargouda Patil; Dimitrios Patoulias; Venkata Suresh Patthipati; Shrikant Pawar; Amy E. Peden; Paolo Pedersini; Minjin Peng; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Marcos Pereira; Maria Odete Pereira; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Norberto Perico; Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha; Hoang Tran Pham; Anil K. Philip; David M. Pigott; Thomas Pilgrim; Michael A. Piradov; Evgenii Plotnikov; Dimitri Poddighe; Roman V. Polibin; Ramesh Poluru; Ghazaleh Pourali; Akram Pourshams; Pranil Man Singh Pradhan; Manya Prasad; Elton Junio Sady Prates; Bharathi M. Purohit; Jagadeesh Puvvula; Ibrahim Qattea; Gangzhen Qian; Maryam Faiz Qureshi; Mehrdad Rabiee Rad; Amir Radfar; Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Alavi; Ibrar Rafique; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Md Jillur Rahim; Mehran Rahimi; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Bita Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pramila Rai; Sathish Rajaa; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Prashant Rajput; Pradhum Ram; Prasanna Ram; Sudha Ramalingam; Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy; Sheena Ramazanu; Pushkal Sinduvadi Ramesh; Juwel Rana; Kritika Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Nemanja Rancic; Amey Rane; Shubham Ranjan; Annemarei Ranta; Indu Ramachandra Rao; Mithun Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Sina Rashedi; Vahid Rashedi; Ahmed Mustafa Rashid; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu; Nakul Ravikumar; Salman Rawaf; Iman Razeghian-Jahromi; Christian Razo; Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Luis Felipe Reyes; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Daniela Ribeiro; Reza Rikhtegar; Leonardo Roever; Debby Syahru Romadlon; Luca Ronfani; Himanshu Sehar Sekhar Rout; Nitai Roy; Priyanka Roy; Andrzej Rynkiewicz; Aly M.A. Saad; Zahra Saadatian; Siamak Sabour; Simona Sacco; Rajesh Sachdeva; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Fahimeh Safaeinejad; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari; Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Soumya Swaroop Sahoo; Seyed Aidin Sajedi; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Joseph W. Sakshaug; Nasir Salam; Afeez Abolarinwa Salami; Mohamed A. Saleh; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Mohammed Z.Y. Salem; Sara Samadzadeh; Saad Samargandy; Vijaya Paul Samuel; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Rama Krishna Sanjeev; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Made Ary Sarasmita; Aswini Saravanan; Yaser Sarikhani; Tanmay Sarkar; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Gargi Sachin Sarode; Sachin C. Sarode; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Anudeep Sathyanarayan; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Benedikt Michael Schaarschmidt
[No abstract available]
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Austin E. Schumacher; Amirali Aali; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh; Mohammadreza Abbasian; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Samar Abd ElHafeez; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Mohammad Abdollahi; Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar; Meriem Abdoun; Auwal Abdullahi; Mesfin Abebe; Samrawit Shawel Abebe; Olumide Abiodun; Hassan Abolhassani; Meysam Abolmaali; Mohamed Abouzid; Girma Beressa Aboye; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Dariush Abtahi; Hasan Abualruz; Bilyaminu Abubakar; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Tadele Girum Girum Adal; Mesafint Molla Adane; Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Adeagbo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Bashir Aden; Abiola Victor Adepoju; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Juliana Bunmi Adetunji; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Rotimi Felix Afolabi; Shadi Afyouni; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Shahin Aghamiri; Antonella Agodi; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Austin J. Ahlstrom; Aqeel Ahmad; Danish Ahmad; Firdos Ahmad; Muayyad M. Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Meqdad Saleh Ahmed; Syed Anees Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Hossein Akbarialiabad; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif; Sreelatha Akkala; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan; Mohammad Al Qadire; Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal; Samer O. Alalalmeh; Tariq A. Alalwan; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Almaza Albakri; Mohammed Albashtawy; Mohammad T. AlBataineh; Hediyeh Alemi; Sharifullah Alemi; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Khalid F. Alhabib; Noora Alhajri; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Abid Ali; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Mohammed Usman Ali; Rafat Ali; Syed Shujait Shujait Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Mohammad Aligol; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Mohammad A.M. Aljasir; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sabah Al-Marwani; Joseph Uy Almazan; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Omar Almidani; Mahmoud A. Alomari; Basem Al-Omari; Jaber S. Alqahtani; Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Awais Altaf; Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Deborah Oyine Aluh; Farrukh Jawad Alvi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hassan Alwafi; Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi; Hany Aly; Safwat Aly; Karem H. Alzoubi; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Alireza Amindarolzarbi; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Sohrab Amiri; Irene Gyamfuah Ampomah; Dickson A. 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Azevedo; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Soroush Baghdadi; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Najmeh Bahmanziari; Ruhai Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Abdulaziz T. Bako; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Madhan Balasubramanian; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Kiran Bam; MacIej Banach; Soham Bandyopadhyay; Biswajit Banik; Palash Chandra Banik; Hansi Bansal; Mehmet Firat Baran; Martina Barchitta; Mainak Bardhan; Erfan Bardideh; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Sandra Barteit; Zarrin Basharat; Asma'u I.J. Bashir; Hameed Akande Bashiru; Afisu Basiru; Joao Diogo Basso; Sanjay Basu; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Kavita Batra; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Tahmina Begum; Emad Behboudi; Amir Hossein Behnoush; Maryam Beiranvand; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Alehegn Bekele; Sefealem Assefa Belay; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Michelle L. Bell; Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello; Apostolos Beloukas; Isabela M. 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Ashworth Dirac; Thanh Chi Do; Thao Huynh Phuong Do; Camila Bruneli Do Prado; Sushil Dohare; Wanyue Dong; Mario D'Oria; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Leila Doshmangir; Robert Kokou Dowou; Ashel Chelsea Dsouza; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Viola Dsouza; John Dube; Joe Duprey; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Senbagam Duraisamy; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Sulagna Dutta; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic; Alireza Ebrahimi; Hisham Atan Edinur; Kristina Edvardsson; Ferry Efendi; Terje Andreas Eikemo; Michael Ekholuenetale; Maha El Tantawi; Noha Mousaad Elemam; Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary; Muhammed Elhadi; Legesse Tesfaye Elilo; Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy; Mohamed A. 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Background: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Meixin Zhang; Ann V. L. Basting; Huong Thi Chu; Avina Vongpradith; Amanda Novotney; Kate E. LeGrand; Yvonne Yiru Xu; Xiaochen Dai; Sneha Ingle Nicholson; Lauryn K. Stafford; Austin Carter; Jennifer M. Ross; Hedayat Abbastabar; Meriem Abdoun; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Salahdein Aburuz; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Abiola Victor Adepoju; Kishor Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Abel Afework; Shahin Aghamiri; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Danish Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Haroon Ahmed; Mohammed Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Karolina Akinosoglou; Tareq Mohammed Ali Al-Ahdal; Nazmul Alam; Mohammed Albashtawy; Mohammad T. AlBataineh; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Abid Ali; Endale Alemayehu Ali; Liaqat Ali; Zahid Ali; Syed Shujait Shujait Ali; Kasim Allel; Awais Altaf; Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Reza Amani; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Jimoh Amzat; Jason R. Andrews; Abhishek Anil; Razique Anwer; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Damelash Areda; Anton A. Artamonov; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Avinash Aujayeb; Davood Azadi; Sina Azadnajafabad; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadorikhalili; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Biswajit Banik; Mainak Bardhan; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Zarrin Basharat; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Maryam Beiranvand; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Makda Abate Belew; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Apostolos Beloukas; Paulo J. G. Bettencourt; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Ashish Bhargava; Vivek Bhat; Jasvinder Singh Bhatti; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Boris Bikbov; Veera R. Bitra; Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Yasser Bustanji; Zahid A. Butt; Paulo Camargos; Yu Cao; Sinclair Carr; Felix Carvalho; Luca Cegolon; Muthia Cenderadewi; Muge Cevik; Yaacoub Chahine; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Patrick R. Ching; Hitesh Chopra; Eunice Chung; Mareli M. Claassens; Kaleb Coberly; Natália Cruz-Martins; Bashir Dabo; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Isaac Darban; Jiregna Darega Gela; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Mahmood Dashti; Berecha Hundessa Demessa; Biniyam Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Awoke Masrie Asrat Derese; Kebede Deribe; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu; Arkadeep Dhali; Kuldeep Dhama; Sameer Dhingra; Thao Huynh Phuong Do; Deepa Dongarwar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; John Dube; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic; Abdelaziz Ed-Dra; Ferry Efendi; Diyan Ermawan Effendi; Aziz Eftekharimehrabad; Nopryan Ekadinata; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Muhammed Elhadi; Legesse Tesfaye Elilo; Theophilus I. Emeto; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ayesha Fahim; Alireza Feizkhah; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Aravind P. Gandhi; Rupesh K. Gautam; Miglas W. Gebregergis; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan; Kazem Ghaffari; Fariba Ghassemi; Ramy Mohamed Ghazy; Amador Goodridge; Anmol Goyal; Shi-Yang Guan; Mesay Dechasa Gudeta; Rashid Abdi Guled; Novianti Br Gultom; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Hailey Hagins; Semira Goitom Hailu; Wase Benti Hailu; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Harapan Harapan; Rumina Syeda Hasan; Shoaib Hassan; Johannes Haubold; Kamal Hezam; Sung Hwi Hong; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Belal Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Hong-Han Huynh; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S. Ikuta; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Md Rabiul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Faisal Ismail; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Mahsa Jalili; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Nabi Jomehzadeh; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua; Zubair Kabir; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Arman Karimi Behnagh; Gebrehiwot G. Kassa; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Navjot Kaur; Himanshu Khajuria; Faham Khamesipour; Yusra H. Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Mahammed Ziauddin Khan Suheb; Khaled Khatab; Fatemeh Khatami; Min Seo Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Md Abdul Kuddus; Mukhtar Kulimbet; Nithin Kumar; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Kamaluddin Latief; Trang Diep Thanh Le; Thao Thi Thu Le; Caterina Ledda; Munjae Lee; Seung Won Lee; Temesgen L. Lerango; Stephen S. Lim; Chaojie Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Hong Luo; Hengliang Lv; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Amir Ali Mahboobipour; Azeem Majeed; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Kashish Malhotra; Muhammad Sajeel Ahmed Malik; Lesibana Anthony Malinga; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Aseer Manilal; Bernardo Alfonso Martinez-Guerra; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Roy Rillera Marzo; Hossein Masoumi-Asl; Vasundhara Mathur; Richard James Maude; Ravi Mehrotra; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Muayad Aghali Merza; Tomislav Mestrovic; Laurette Mhlanga; Sanjeev Misra; Arup Kumar Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Hussen Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E. Moore; Parsa Mousavi; Francesk Mulita; Fungai Musaigwa; Raman Muthusamy; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Pirouz Naghavi; Ganesh R. Naik; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Hadush Negash; Dang H. Nguyen; Van Thanh Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi; Efaq Ali Noman; Shuhei Nomura; Bogdan Oancea; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Ismail A. Odetokun; Daniel Bogale Odo Odo; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; In-Hwan Oh; Chukwuma O. Okereke; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Eyal Oren; Edgar Ortiz-Brizuela; Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu; Amel Ouyahia; P.A. Mahesh Padukudru; Pragyan Paramita Parija; Romil R. Parikh; Seoyeon Park; Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi; Shankargouda Patil; Shrikant Pawar; Minjin Peng; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Prince Peprah; João Perdigão; Norberto Perico; Hoang Tran Pham; Maarten J. Postma; Attur Ravindra Attur Prabhu; Manya Prasad; Akila Prashant; Elton Junio Sady Prates; Fakher Rahim; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Masoud Rahmati; Sathish Rajaa; Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy; Indu Ramachandra Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Deepthi Rapaka; Ahmed Mustafa Rashid; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Nakul Ravikumar; Salman Rawaf; Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Luis Felipe Reyes; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Omid Rezahosseini; Mónica Rodrigues; Priyanka Roy; Guilherme de Andrade Ruela; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Sher Zaman Safi; Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Soumya Swaroop Sahoo; Nasir Salam; Afeez Abolarinwa Salami; Samreen Saleem; Mohamed A. Saleh; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Sara Samadzadeh; Yoseph Leonardo Samodra; Rama Krishna Sanjeev; Aswini Saravanan; Susan M. Sawyer; Siddharthan Selvaraj; Sabyasachi Senapati; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Pritik A. Shah; Samiah Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Sunder Sham; Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran; Mohd Shanawaz; Medha Sharath; Samendra P. Sherchan; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; Aminu Shittu; Emmanuel Edwar Siddig; João Pedro Silva; Surjit Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Harpreet Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Siswanto Siswanto; Ranjan Solanki; Yonatan Solomon; Joan B. Soriano; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vijay Kumar Srivastava; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Chandan Kumar Swain; Takahiro Tabuchi; Mircea Tampa; Jacques J. L. Lukenze Tamuzi; Nathan Y. Tat; Razieh Tavakoli Oliaee; Gebrehiwot Teklay; Edosa Geta Tesfaye; Belay Tessema; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Rekha Thapar; Chern Choong Chern Thum; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Imad M. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Temesgen Mohammed Toma; Khai Hoan Tram; Aniefiok John Udoakang; Tungki Pratama Umar; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Seyed Mohammad Vahabi; Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan; Job F. M. van Boven; Shoban Babu Varthya; Ziyue Wang; Muktar S. A. Warsame; Ronny Westerman; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Sajad Yaghoubi; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Fathiah Zakham; Moein Zangiabadian; Francis Zeukeng; Haijun Zhang; Yang Zhao; Peng Zheng; Magdalena Zielinska; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. Findings: We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5–14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15–49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50–69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5–14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15–49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50–69 years, and a 3·29% (–5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (–713 to 2180) fewer deaths. Interpretation: Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Valery L Feigin; Melsew Dagne Abate; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Samar Abd ElHafeez; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Atef Abdelkader; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Parsa Abdi; Arash Abdollahi; Meriem Abdoun; Rami Abd-Rabu; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Auwal Abdullahi; Mesfin Abebe; Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga; E.S. Abhilash; Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun; Olumide Abiodun; Rahim Abo Kasem; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Mohamed Abouzid; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Dariush Abtahi; Samir Abu Rumeileh; Ahmed Abualhasan; Hasan Abualruz; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Hana J Abukhadijah; Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh; Salahdein Aburuz; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Juan Manuel Acuna; Denberu Eshetie Adane; Mesafint Molla Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Oyelola A Adegboye; Victor Adekanmbi; Kishor Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Leticia Akua Adzigbli; Abdelrahman Yousry Afify; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Fatemeh Afrashteh; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Shahin Aghamiri; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Muayyad M Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Shahzaib Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Syed Anees Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Essona Matatom Akara; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif; Ashley E Akrami; Salah Al Awaidy; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan; Mohammad Al Qadire; Omar Al Ta'ani; Yazan Al-Ajlouni; Samer O Alalalmeh; Tariq A Alalwan; Ziyad Al-Aly; Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer; Wafa A Aldhaleei; Mohammed S Aldossary; Seyedeh Yasaman Alemohammad; Bassam Al-Fatly; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa; Maryam Alharrasi; Abid Ali; Mohammed Usman Ali; Rafat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Waad Ali; Akram Al-Ibraheem; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Wael Almahmeed; Sabah Al-Marwani; Mahmoud A Alomari; Jordi Alonso; Jaber S Alqahtani; Rajaa M Mohammad Al-Raddadi; Ahmad Alrawashdeh; Mohammed A Alsabri; Najim Z Alshahrani; Zaid Altaany; Awais Altaf; Alaa B Al-Tammemi; Diala Altwalbeh; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hassan Alwafi; Mohammad Al-Wardat; Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi; Hany Aly; Safwat Aly; Mohammad Sharif Ibrahim Alyahya; Karem H Alzoubi; Walid Adnan Al-Zyoud; Reza Amani; Prince M Amegbor; Tewodros Getnet Amera; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Alireza Amindarolzarbi; Sohrab Amiri; Hubert Amu; Dickson A Amugsi; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Dhanalakshmi Angappan; Abhishek Anil; Mohammed Tahir Tahir Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Rockson Ansong; Saeid Anvari; Saleha Anwar; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Ekenedilichukwu Emmanuel Anyabolo; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Geminn Louis Carace Apostol; Francis Appiah; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Razman Arabzadeh Bahri; Mosab Arafat; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Ali Ardekani; Demelash Areda; Brhane Berhe Aregawi; Getnet Mesfin Aregu; Olatunde Aremu; Hidayat Arifin; Johan Ärnlöv; Anton A Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Umesh Raj Aryal; Zahra Aryan; Akram M Asbeutah; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Mulu Tiruneh Asemu; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Mubarek Yesse Ashemo; Tahira Ashraf; Armin Aslani; Haftu Asmerom Asmerom; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Abolfazl Avan; Hamzeh Awad; Adedapo Wasiu Awotidebe; Lemessa Assefa A Ayana; Setognal Birara Aychiluhm; Amdehiwot A Aynalem; Zewdu Bishaw Aynalem; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Shahkaar Aziz; Ahmed Y Azzam; Abraham Samuel Babu; Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Pegah Bahrami Taghanaki; Saeed Bahramian; Ruhai Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Abdulaziz T Bako; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Kiran Bam; Maciej Banach; Morteza Banakar; Soham Bandyopadhyay; Palash Chandra Banik; Kannu Bansal; Yanping Bao; Miguel A Barboza; Mainak Bardhan; Noel C Barengo; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Lingkan Barua; Azadeh Bashiri; Hameed Akande Bashiru; Afisu Basiru; Mohammad-Mahdi Bastan; Sanjay Basu; Saurav Basu; Kavita Batra; Ahmet Begde; Babak Behnam; Amir Hossein Behnoush; Melesse B Y Belayneh; Michael Belingheri; Umar Muhammad Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Fentaw Tadese Berhe; Amiel Nazer C Bermudez; Habtamu B B Beyene; Kebede A Beyene; Devidas S Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Vivek Bhat; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Jasvinder Singh Singh Bhatti; Mohiuddin Ahmed Bhuiyan; Subarna Bhusal; Boris Bikbov; Cem Bilgin; Antonio Biondi; Keralem Anteneh Bishaw; Atanu Biswas; Bijit Biswas; Trupti Bodhare; Eyob Ketema Bogale; Archith Boloor; Milad Bonakdar Hashemi; Aime Bonny; Berrak Bora Basara; Hamed Borhany; Samuel Adolf Bosoka; Souad Bouaoud; Abdelhakim Bouyahya; Edward J Boyko; Marija M Bozic; Dejana Braithwaite; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Gabrielle Britton; Andre R Brunoni; Dana Bryazka; Raffaele Bugiardini; Lemma N Bulto; Katrin Burkart; Yasser Bustanji; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Luciana Aparecida Campos; Ismael R Campos-Nonato; Fan Cao; Angelo Capodici; Rosario Cárdenas; Sinclair Carr; Giulia Carreras; Andre F Carvalho; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Alberico L Catapano; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Luca Cegolon; Francieli Cembranel; Edina Cenko; Ester Cerin; Joshua Chadwick; Chiranjib Chakraborty; Sandip Chakraborty; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Rama Mohan Chandika; Eeshwar K Chandrasekar; Gashaw Sisay Chanie; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Anis Ahmad Chaudhary; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Haowei Chen; Mingling Chen; Simiao Chen; Gerald Chi; Fatemeh Chichagi; Ritesh Chimoriya; Patrick R Ching; Abdulaal Chitheer; So Mi Jemma Cho; Dong-Woo Choi; Bryan Chong; Chean Lin Chong; Hitesh Chopra; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Rahul Choudhary; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Zinhle Cindi; Iolanda Cioffi; Rebecca M Cogen; Alyssa Columbus; Simona Costanzo; Rosa A S Couto; Michael H Criqui; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández; Alanna Gomes da Silva; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Koustuv Dalal; Lachlan L Dalli; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Amira Hamed Darwish; Saswati Das; Mohsen Dashti; Mohadese Dashtkoohi; Mohammad Dashtkoohi; Maedeh Dastmardi; 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Background: Up-to-date estimates of stroke burden and attributable risks and their trends at global, regional, and national levels are essential for evidence-based health care, prevention, and resource allocation planning. We aimed to provide such estimates for the period 1990–2021. Methods: We estimated incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 people per year for overall stroke, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, and subarachnoid haemorrhage, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We also calculated burden of stroke attributable to 23 risk factors and six risk clusters (air pollution, tobacco smoking, behavioural, dietary, environmental, and metabolic risks) at the global and regional levels (21 GBD regions and Socio-demographic Index [SDI] quintiles), using the standard GBD methodology. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In 2021, stroke was the third most common GBD level 3 cause of death (7·3 million [95% UI 6·6–7·8] deaths; 10·7% [9·8–11·3] of all deaths) after ischaemic heart disease and COVID-19, and the fourth most common cause of DALYs (160·5 million [147·8–171·6] DALYs; 5·6% [5·0–6·1] of all DALYs). In 2021, there were 93·8 million (89·0–99·3) prevalent and 11·9 million (10·7–13·2) incident strokes. We found disparities in stroke burden and risk factors by GBD region, country or territory, and SDI, as well as a stagnation in the reduction of incidence from 2015 onwards, and even some increases in the stroke incidence, death, prevalence, and DALY rates in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, countries with lower SDI, and people younger than 70 years. Globally, ischaemic stroke constituted 65·3% (62·4–67·7), intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 28·8% (28·3–28·8), and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 5·8% (5·7–6·0) of incident strokes. There were substantial increases in DALYs attributable to high BMI (88·2% [53·4–117·7]), high ambient temperature (72·4% [51·1 to 179·5]), high fasting plasma glucose (32·1% [26·7–38·1]), diet high in sugar-sweetened beverages (23·4% [12·7–35·7]), low physical activity (11·3% [1·8–34·9]), high systolic blood pressure (6·7% [2·5–11·6]), lead exposure (6·5% [4·5–11·2]), and diet low in omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (5·3% [0·5–10·5]). Interpretation: Stroke burden has increased from 1990 to 2021, and the contribution of several risk factors has also increased. Effective, accessible, and affordable measures to improve stroke surveillance, prevention (with the emphasis on blood pressure, lifestyle, and environmental factors), acute care, and rehabilitation need to be urgently implemented across all countries to reduce stroke burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license