Browsing by Author "Kate E. Legrand"

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Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: Methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020) Spencer L. James; Chris D. Castle; Zachary V. Dingels; Jack T. Fox; Erin B. Hamilton; Zichen Liu; Nicholas L. S. Roberts; Dillon O. Sylte; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Matthew Cunningham; Nathaniel J. Henry; Kate E. Legrand; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Jose C. Adsuar; Shailesh M. Advani; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Tauseef Ahmad; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Niguse Meles Alema; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Suliman A. Alghnam; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Saqib Ali; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Khalid Altirkawi; Yasser Sami Abdeldayem Amer; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Amit Arora; Malke Asaad; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Ghasem Azarian; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Ahad Bakhtiari; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Amrit Banstola; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Akbar Barzegar; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Habte Belete; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Archith Boloor; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Antonio Maria Borzì; Soufiane Boufous; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Traolach Brugha; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Joht S. Chandan; Jens Robert Chapman; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Irini Chatziralli; Neha Chaudhary; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young J. Choi; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Flavia M. Cicuttini; João M. Coelho; Vera M. Costa; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Ahmad Daryani; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Diego De Leo; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Kebede Deribe; Rupak Desai; Mostafa Dianati Nasab; Diana Dias Da Silva; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Hoa Thi Do; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko Adema; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Maysaa El Sayedzaki; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Hadush Gebremariam; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Leake G. Gebremeskel; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Berhe Gebremichael; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Birhanu Geta; Agegnehu Bante Getenet; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Michal Grivna; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Gaurav Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Brian James Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Josep Maria Haro; Amir Hasanzadeh; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Delia Hendrie; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Martha Híjar; Hung Chak Ho; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Sudha Jayaraman; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Jost B. Jonas; Kelly M. Jones; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Teshome Abegaz Kamil; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Manoochehr Karami; Amir Kasaeian; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye; Taras Kavetskyy; Gbenga A. Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Maseer Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Tripti Khanna; Salman Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Roba Khundkar; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Daniel Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Hamidreza Komaki; Shivakumar K. M. Kondlahalli; Ali Koolivand; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Arman Latifi; Paolo Lauriola; Carlo La Vecchia; Janet L. Leasher; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Alan D. Lopez; Paulo A. Lotufo; Ronan A. Lyons; Daiane Borges Machado; Mohammed Madadin; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Venkatesh Maled; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Navid Manafi; Amir Manafi; Ana-Laura Manda; Narayana Manjunatha; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik; Peter T. N. Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Mohammad A. Mohseni Bandpei; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Masoud Moradi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najaf; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod Nayak; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Heather M. Orpana; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; A.P. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Sanghamitra Pati; Kebreab Paulos; Amy E. Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Jeevan Pereira; Michael R. Phillips; Roman V. Polibin; Suzanne Polinder; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Parul Puri; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Ata Rafee; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Siavash Rahimi; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Basema Saddik; Hamid Safarpour; Mahdi Safdarian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Payman Salamati; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Feng Sha; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pankaj Kumar Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Amin Soheili; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Mark A. Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu; Ayenew Kassie Tesema Tesema; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Roman Topor-Madry; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Alexander C. Tsai; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Olalekan A. Uthman; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yousefi Veisani; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Habte Woldeyes; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Ai-Min Wu; Grant M. A. Wyper; Rajaram Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Yoosik Youm; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousef; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Fatemeh Zarei; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Rakhi Dandona; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Simon I. Hay; Ali H. Mokdad; David M. Pigott; Robert C. Reiner; Theo Vos
Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC B Y. Published by BMJ.
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Victor Aboyans; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Maryam Adabi; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Colin Angus; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Filippo Ariani; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Charlie Ashbaugh; Michael Assmus; Zahra Atafar; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Alberto Baldasseroni; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Daniela Balzi; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Lingkan Barua; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Jacob S. Becker; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Yannick Béjot; Michelle L. Bell; Fiona B. Bennitt; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Neeraj Bhala; Dinesh Bhandari; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Catherine Bisignano; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Helen Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mehdi Bohluli; Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Dana Bryazka; Blair R. Bumgarner; Katrin Burkart; Richard Thomas Burnett; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Leah E. Cahill; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Christopher R. Cederroth; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Kai-Lan Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Nicolas Cherbuin; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Classen; Aaron J. Cohen; Kelly Compton; Owen R. Cooper; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Richard G. Cowden; Di H. Cross; Jessica A. Cruz; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Anna-Karin Danielsson; Paul I. Dargan; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José das Neves; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Marissa DeLang; Robert Paul Dellavalle; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nikolaos Dervenis; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Klara Dokova; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Tim Robert Driscoll; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; David Edvardsson; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Holly E. Erskine; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Jessica Fanzo; Mohammad Farahmand; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Mithila Faruque; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Lisa M. Force; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Marisa Freitas; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; João M. Furtado; Mohamed M. Gad; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie; Abraham Geremew; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Peter W. Gething; Maryam Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Rakesh Ghosh; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Salime Goharinezhad; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C. Goulart; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Gaorui Guo; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Beatrix Haddock; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Melanie S. Hammer; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Hannah J. Henrikson; Molly E. Herbert; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Thomas R. Hird; Hans W. Hoek; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Kejia Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Chantal K. Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Vincent C. Iannucci; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Helen Ippolito; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Hussain Jafari; Morteza Jafarinia; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Spencer L. James; Hosna Janjani; Tahereh Javaheri; Javad Javidnia; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Lars Johansson; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Catherine Owens Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Hamed Kalani; Rizwan Kalani; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Laura Kemmer; Parkes J. Kendrick; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Salman Khazaei; Christian Kieling; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A. Kopec; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Kris J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Justin J. Lang; Sinéad M. Langan; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Kate E. Legrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Haley Lescinsky; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Yang Liu; Justin Lo; Alan D. Lopez; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Platon D. Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Alton Lu; Alessandra Lugo; Emilie R. Maddison; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mokhtar Mahdavi Mahdavi; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Ana M. Mantilla Herrera; Joemer C. Maravilla; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Fereshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Noushin Mohammadifard; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Hussen Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Meghan D. Mooney; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F. Mosser; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Erin C. Mullany; Kamarul Imran Musa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod C. Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Ming Nguyen; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Christopher M. Odell; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Kanyin L. Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Frank B. Osei; Samuel M. Ostroff; Adrian Otoiu; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Charles D. H. Parry; Maja Pasovic; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Sangram Kishor Patel; Mona Pathak; Scott B. Patten; George C. Patton; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Amy E. Peden; Alyssa Pennini; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; David M. Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Cristiano Piccinelli; Tessa M. Pilz; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Dietrich Plass; Suzanne Polinder; Kevan R. Polkinghorne; Constance Dimity Pond; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Anna Poznañska; Sergio I. Prada; V. Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alberto Raggi; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja C. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Ramu Rawat; Christian Razo; Sofia Boston Redford; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Phoebe-Anne Rhinehart; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniel Cury Ribeiro; Daniela Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Juan A. Rivera; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Sonia Rodríguez-Ramírez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Robin Room; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A. Roth; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Reza Saeedi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Yahya Safari; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Payman Salamati; Hosni Salem; Marwa R. Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Omar Mukhtar Salman; Joshua A. Salomon; Zainab Samad; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Tania G. Sánchez-Pimienta; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; João Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Sonia Saxena; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Silvia Schiavolin; Markus P. Schlaich; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Berrin Serdar; Marc L. Serre; Jamileh Shadid; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; Kenji Shibuya; Kevin David Shield; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Radoslaw Sierpinski; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; João Pedro Silva; Kyle E. Simpson; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Eirini Skiadaresi; Søren T. Skou; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Emma U.R. Smith; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J. D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Cory N. Spencer; Adel Spotin; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Caroline Stein; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo Stockfelt; Mark A. Stokes; Kurt Straif; Jacob L. Stubbs; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Iyad Sultan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Takahiro Tabuchi; Amir Taherkhani; Masih Tajdini; Ken Takahashi; Jukka S. Takala; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; George D. Thurston; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Anna E. Torre; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara Travillian; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Riaz Uddin; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Pascual R. Valdez; Aaron van Donkelaar; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Yousef Veisani; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Alexandrea Watson; Jingkai Wei; Melissa Y. Wei Wei; Robert G. Weintraub; Jordan Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; J. Jason West; Ronny Westerman; Joanna L. Whisnant; Harvey A. Whiteford; Kirsten E. Wiens; Charles D. A. Wolfe; Sarah S. Wozniak; Ai-Min Wu; Junjie Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Gelin Xu; Rixing Xu; Simon Yadgir; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Mousa Yaminfirooz; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Tomas Y. Yeheyis; Christopher Sabo Yilgwan; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Theodore Patrick Younker; Bahman Yousefi; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Abdilahi Yousuf Yousuf; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Jeff T. Zhao; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Yingxi Zhao; Peng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Arash Ziapour; Stephanie R. M. Zimsen; Stephen S. Lim; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Avina Vongpradith; Emilie R. Maddison; Amanda Novotney; Molly H. Biehl; Kate E. Legrand; Jennifer M. Ross; Deepa Jahagirdar; Dana Bryazka; Rachel Feldman; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Jason A. Anderson; Sofa Androudi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Asrat Arja; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Gulrez Shah Azhar; B.B. Darshan; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Archith Boloor; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Mareli M. Claassens; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Linh Phuong Doan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Muhammed Elhadi; Amir Emami; Shymaa Enany; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Tahvi D. Frank; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Christian Garcia-Calavaro; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Amador Goodridge; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shaful Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Vardhmaan Jain; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Zubair Kabir; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Parkes J. Kendrick; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Khaled Khatab; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Avinash Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Daiane Borges Machado; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Deepak Madi; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Saurabh Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Nour Mheidly Mheidly; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafu Mohammed; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E. Moore; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Sanjeev Nair; Suma Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Eyal Oren; P.A. Mahesh; Ramakrishnan Parthasarathi; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Rajan Paudel; Pintu Paul; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; Majid Pirestani; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Gholamreza Roshandel; Denis O. Roshchin; Siamak Sabour; K.M. Saif-Ur-rahman; Nasir Salam; Hossein Samadi Kafl; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Satish Saroshe; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Susan M. Sawyer; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharaf; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; João Pedro Silva; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Bach Xuan Tran; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K. Walters; Joanna L. Whisnant; Mesfn Agachew Woldekidan; Befkadu Legesse Wubishet; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Ali H. Mokdad; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Stephen S. Lim; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
(BioMed Central Ltd, 2021) Michael A. Cork; Nathaniel J. Henry; Stefanie Watson; Andrew J. Croneberger; Mathew Baumann; Ian D. Letourneau; Mingyou Yang; Audrey L. Serfes; Jaffar Abbas; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Lucas G. Abreu; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Maryam Adabi; Tadele G. Adal; Adeyinka E. Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright O. Ahinkorah; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar B. Ahmed; Robert K. Alhassan; Vahid Alipour; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Malke Asaad; Desta D. Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Samad Azari; Darshan B. B; Atif A. Baig; Maciej Banach; Simachew A. Bante; Miguel A. Barboza; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Diana F Bejarano Ramirez; Isabela M. Bensenor; Fenta-Hun Y. Beyene; Yihienew M. Bezabih; Akshaya S. Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Sait M. Birlik; Zebenay W. Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Archith Boloor; Andre R. Brunoni; Zahid A. Butt; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Casta-ñeda-orjuela; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aubrey J. Cook; Natalie M. Cormier; Saad M A. Dahlawi; Farah Daoud; Claudio A. Dávila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Fernando P. De la Hoz; Feleke M. Demeke; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Keshab Deuba; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Govinda P. Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Andre R. Duraes; Arielle W. Eagan; Lucas Earl; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Rajesh Elayedath; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Andre Faro; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius K. Fauk; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Tesfay B B. Gebremariam; Ketema B. Gebremed-Hin; Gebreamlak G. Gebremeskel; Hailay A. Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Mahaveer Golechha; Ugo Gori; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara N G. Goulart; Harish C. Gugnani; Mark D C. Guimaraes; Rafael A. Guimarães; Yum-Ing Guo; Rahul Gupta; Emily Haeuser; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Teklehaimanot G. Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Ninuk Hariyani; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hung Chak Ho; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Bing-Fang Hwang; Charles U. Ibeneme; Segun E. Ibitoye; Olayinka S. Ile-Sanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Irena M. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Deepa Jahagir-Dar; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi P. Jha; Kimberly B. Johnson; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohol-Lah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Maryam Keramati; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz A. Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md Nuruzzaman N. Khan; Khaled Khatab; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Ricardo S. Kuchenbecker; Vaman Kulkarni; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh K. Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. Legrand; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Hawraz I M. Amin; Daiane B. Machado; Deepak Madi; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Deborah C. Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Md Dilshad Manzar; Carlos A Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco R. Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin K. Mayala; Carlo E. Medina-Solís; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mohammad Ali Moni; Masoud Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Amin Mou-Savi Khaneghah; Ghulam Mustafa; Lillian Mwanri; Ravishankar Nagaraja; Ahamarshan J. Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naim-Zada; Bruno R. Nascimento; Dr M. Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Hadush Negash; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Cuong T. Nguyen; Huong L T. Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Felix A. Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Nikita Otstav-Nov; Mahesh P. A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Ana M. Pardo-Montaño; Urvish K. Patel; Shrikant Pawar; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Alexandre Pereira; Samantha Perkins; Julia M. Pescarini; Khem N. Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Faheem H. Pot-Too; Sergio I. Prada; Liliana Preotescu; Dimas R A. Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Chhabi L. Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David L. Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Enrico Rubagotti; Susan F. Rumisha; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Rajesh Sagar; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa R. Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Brijesh Sathian; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Ione J C. Schneider; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Feng Sha; Masood A. Shaikh; Kio-Mars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Diego A S. Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Y. Skryabin; Anna A. Skryabina; Amber Sligar; Amin Soheili; Krista M. Steuben; Mu’Awiyyah B. Sufiyan; Eyayou G. Tadesse; Ayenew K T. Tesema; Fisaha H. Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Robert L. Thompson; Marcos R. Tovani-Palone; Bach X. Tran; Gebiyaw W. Tsegaye; Chukwuma D. Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrish-Nan; Yasser Vasseghian; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Giang T. Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Fissaha T. Welay; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan D. Wickramasinghe; Sanni Yaya; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail S. Zastroz-Hin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren
Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) remains a public health priority in Latin America. While the burden of HIV is historically concentrated in urban areas and high-risk groups, subnational estimates that cover multiple countries and years are missing. This paucity is partially due to incomplete vital registration (VR) systems and statistical challenges related to estimating mortality rates in areas with low numbers of HIV deaths. In this analysis, we address this gap and provide novel estimates of the HIV mortality rate and the number of HIV deaths by age group, sex, and municipality in Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Mexico. Methods: We performed an ecological study using VR data ranging from 2000 to 2017, dependent on individual country data availability. We modeled HIV mortality using a Bayesian spatially explicit mixed-effects regression model that incorporates prior information on VR completeness. We calibrated our results to the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Results: All countries displayed over a 40-fold difference in HIV mortality between municipalities with the highest and lowest age-standardized HIV mortality rate in the last year of study for men, and over a 20-fold difference for women. Despite decreases in national HIV mortality in all countries—apart from Ecuador—across the period of study, we found broad variation in relative changes in HIV mortality at the municipality level and increasing relative inequality over time in all countries. In all six countries included in this analysis, 50% or more HIV deaths were concentrated in fewer than 10% of municipalities in the latest year of study. In addition, national age patterns reflected shifts in mortality to older age groups—the median age group among decedents ranged from 30 to 45 years of age at the municipality level in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico in 2017. Conclusions: Our subnational estimates of HIV mortality revealed significant spatial variation and diverging local trends in HIV mortality over time and by age. This analysis provides a framework for incorporating data and uncertainty from incomplete VR systems and can help guide more geographically precise public health intervention to support HIV-related care and reduce HIV-related deaths. © 2021, The Author(s).
Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
(Public Library of Science, 2021) Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Joshua C. P. Osborne; Thomas R. Unnasch; Mariagloria Basáñez; Katherine M. Gass; Kira A. Barbre; Elex Hill; Kimberly B. Johnson; Katie M. Donkers; Shreya Shirude; Chris A. Schmidt; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mohsen Afarideh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Vahid Alipour; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Benjamin F. Arnold; Marcel Ausloos; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Mohsen Bayati; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mahdi Bohluli; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Zahid A Butt; Felix Carvalho; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Natalie Maria Cormier; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Farah Daoud; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Kebede Deribe; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Daniel Diaz; Hoa Thi Do; Maysaa El Sayed Zak; Maha El Tantawi; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Anwar Faraj; Majid Fasihi Harandi; Yousef Fatahi; Valery L. Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Nataliya A. Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Davide Guido; Yuming Guo; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Samer Hamidi; Claudiu Herteliu; Hagos Degefa De Hidru; Tarig B. Higazi; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Irena M. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Zubair Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Behzad Karami Matin; Salah Eddin Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Taras Kavetskyy; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Maryam Keramati; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Neda Kianipour; Kelemu Tilahun Kibret; Yun Jin Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Kris J. Krohn; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Charles Lansingh Van; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. Legrand; Shanshan Li; Joshua Longbottom; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Afshin Maleki; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ali Manafi; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Walter Mendoza; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Mohammad Miri; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Abdollah Mohammadian Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Masoud Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F. Mosser; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Bogdan Oancea; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Adrian Pana; Hadi Pourjafar; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Serge Resnikoff; Melese Abate Reta; Aziz Rezapour; Enrico Rubagotti; Salvatore Rubino; Ehsan Sadeghi; Abedin Saghafipour; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Abdallah M. Samy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Monika Sawhney; Megan F. Schipp; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Biagio Simonetti; Jasvinder A. Singh; Eirini Skiadaresi; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Mu’Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Leili Tapak; Robert L. Thompson; Alan J. Thomson; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Natalie V. S. Vinkeles Melchers; Francesco S. Violante; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Leila Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; David M. Pigott
Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0.71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50.2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5×5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify. © 2021, Public Library of Science. All rights reserved.