Browsing by Author "Kevin S Ikuta"

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Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Avina Vongpradith; Sarah Brooke Sirota; Amanda Novotney; Christopher E Troeger; Matthew C Doxey; Rose G Bender; Jorge R Ledesma; Molly H Biehl; Samuel B Albertson; Joseph Jon Frostad; Katrin Burkart; Fiona B Bennitt; Jeff T Zhao; William M Gardner; Hailey Hagins; Dana Bryazka; Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Michael Abdelmasseh; Amir Abdoli; Gholamreza Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Vida Abedi; Tadesse M Abegaz; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Yonas Derso Abtew; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Kidist Adamu; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A Adegboye; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Luciana Albano; Mamoon A Aldeyab; Bezatu Mengistie Alemu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Abdelazeem M Algammal; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Musa Mohammed Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Adel Al-Jumaily; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Rami H Hani Al-Rifai; Saif Aldeen S AlRyalat; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi; John H Amuasi; Dickson A Amugsi; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Demelash Areda; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Engi F Attia; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Tewachew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Samad Azari; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; MacIej Banach; Indrajit Banerjee; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Quique Bassat; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Abate Bekele Belachew; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Parth Bhatt; Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Soumitra S Bhuyan; Ali Bijani; Saeid Bitaraf; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Jiao Cai; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Muluken Genetu Chanie; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Patrick R Ching; Sungchul Choi; Yuen Yu Chong; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Natalie L Cobb; Aaron J Cohen; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; An Thi Minh Dao; Sisay Abebe Debela; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Diriba Dereje; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Belay Desye; Sameer Dhingra; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Fariba Dorostkar; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Eleonora Dubljanin; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Hisham Atan Edinur; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Eman D El Desouky; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Ahmed Mahmoud Rabie Elkhapery; Amir Emami; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Farshid Etaee; Mohamad Ezati Asar; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Shahab Falahi; Aida Fallahzadeh; Anwar Faraj; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Ali Fatehizadeh; Pietro Ferrara; Allegra Allegra Ferrari; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Joanne Flavel; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Santosh Gaihre; Nasrin Galehdar; Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Damtew Gebrehiwot; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Bradford D Gessner; Melaku Getachew; Asmare Getie; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Rakesh Ghosh; Sherief Ghozy; Pouya Goleij; Mohamad Golitaleb; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C Goulart; Girma Garedew Goyomsa; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Zewdie Gudisa; Rashid Abdi Guled; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Md Abdul Hannan; Mehdi Harorani; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Abbas M Hassan; Shokoufeh Hassani; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Mohammad Heidari; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Sung Hwi Hong; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Masao Iwagami; Jalil Jaafari; Elham Jamshidi; Sung-In Jang; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Tahereh Javaheri; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Javad Javidnia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Jayarajah; Shubha Jayaram; Alelign Tasew Jema; Wonjeong Jeong; Jost B Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; V. K; Zubair Kabir; Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi; Vidya Kadashetti; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K Kanko; Ibraheem M Karaye; André Karch; Samad Karkhah; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Patrick D M C Katoto; Harkiran Kaur; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Yusra H Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Mina Khosravifar; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Luke D Knibbs; Sonali Kochhar; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Judit Lám; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; László Lorenzovici; Mojgan Lotfi; Joana A Loureiro; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Jamal Majidpoor; Alaa Makki; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Yosef Manla; Clara N Matei; Alexander G Mathioudakis; Richard James Maude; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Addisu Melese; Ziad A Memish; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Tuomo J Meretoja; Mehari Woldemariam Merid; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Reza Mirfakhraie; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Agha Zeeshan Mirza; Moonis Mirza; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Abay Sisay Misganaw; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Mohammad Mohseni; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Md Moniruzzaman; Fateme Montazeri; Catrin E Moore; Abdolvahab Moradi; Lidia Morawska; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Majid Motaghinejad; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Seyed Ali Mousavi-Aghdas; Sumaira Mubarik; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Sanjeev Nair; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Houshang Najafi; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Huy Van Nguyen Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira De Sá; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Abderrahim Oulhaj; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Reza Pakzad; Tamás Palicz; Anamika Pandey; Suman Pant; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Rajan Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Minjin Peng; Gavin Pereira; Simone Perna; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; David M Pigott; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Vivek Podder; Roman V Polibin; Maarten J Postma; Hamid Pourasghari; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir; Mathieu Raad; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Saber Raeghi; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mehran Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Md Obaidur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Usha Rani; Sowmya J Rao; Sina Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Marissa B Reitsma; Andre M N Renzaho; Mohsen Rezaeian; Abanoub Riad; Reza Rikhtegar; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Emma L B Rogowski; Luca Ronfani; Kristina E Rudd; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Azam Safary; Sher Zaman Safi; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sateesh Sakhamuri; Sana Salehi; Muhammad Salman; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Maryam Sarkhosh; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Hina Shamshad; Mequannent Melaku Sharew; Asaad Sharhani; Azam Sharifi; Purva Sharma; Ali Sheidaei; Suchitra M Shenoy; Jeevan K Shetty; Damtew Solomon Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; K.M. Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Parnian Shobeiri; Wudneh Simegn; Colin R Simpson; Harpreet Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Yimeng Song; Prashant Sood; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Muhammad Suleman; Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh; Alireza Tahamtan; Majid Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Elahe Taki; Iman M Talaat; Mircea Tampa; Sarmila Tandukar; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Azene Tesfaye; Degefa Gomora Tesfaye; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Amir Tiyuri; Imad I Tleyjeh; Munkhsaikhan Togtmol; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Derara Girma Tufa; Irfan Ullah; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Rohollah Valizadeh; Constantine Vardavas; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Bay Vo; Linh Gia Vu; Birhanu Wagaye; Yasir Waheed; Yu Wang; Abdul Waris; T Eoin West; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Xiaoyue Xu; Sajad Yaghoubi; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Burhan Abdullah Zaman; Alireza Zandifar; Moein Zangiabadian; Heather J Zar; Iman Zare; Zahra Zareshahrabadi; Armin Zarrintan; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Wu Zeng; Mengxi Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zoladl; Alimuddin Zumla; Stephen S Lim; Theo Vos; Mohsen Naghavi; Michael Brauer; Simon I Hay; Christopher J L Murray
Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Annie Haakenstad; Jamal Akeem Yearwood; Nancy Fullman; Corinne Bintz; Kelly Bienhoff; Marcia R Weaver; Vishnu Nandakumar; Jonah N Joffe; Kate E LeGrand; Megan Knight; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Budi Aji; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Khurshid Alam; Hanadi Al Hamad; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Hubert Amu; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Pedro Prata Andrade; Afifa Anjum; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Hany Ariffin; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Tahira Ashraf; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Shrikala Baliga; Palash Chandra Banik; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Rebuma Belete; Arielle Wilder Bell; Devidas S Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Vera L A Carneiro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Joht Singh Chandan; Jaykaran Charan; Prachi P Chavan; Simiao Chen; Shu Chen; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Massimo Cirillo; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Saad M A Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Keshab Deuba; Meghnath Dhimal; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andem Effiong; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Islam Y Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Santosh Gaihre; William M Gardner; Tushar Garg; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Jenny S Guadamuz; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; M Tasdik Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Nathaniel J Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sahadat Hossain; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Junjie Huang; M Mamun Huda; Susan C Ifeagwu; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Rajesh Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Kaloyan Kamenov; Himal Kandel; Rami S Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Marina Karanikolos; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Taras Kavetskyy; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Maseer Khan; Mehdi Khezeli; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Vitalii Klymchuk; Kamrun Nahar Koly; Oleksii Korzh; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Shanshan Li; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Adolfo Martinez-Valle; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Richard James Maude; Pallab K Maulik; Martin McKee; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Simin Mouodi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Chie Nagata; Mohsen Naghavi; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Hasan Nassereldine; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Bogdan Oancea; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Adrian Otoiu; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Praveen Kumar Pathak; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Manju Pilania; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Vivek Podder; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Sergio I Prada; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Harihar Sahoo; Maitreyi Sahu; Joseph S Salama; Payman Salamati; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Maria Inês Schmidt; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Adithi Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Azad Shokri; Jasvinder A Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Raúl A R C Sousa; Jacqueline H Stephens; Jing Sun; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Niharika Tripathi; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Christopher E Troeger; Deinzel Robles Uezono; Saif Ullah; Anayat Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Milena Vasic; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiǧit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Stephen S Lim; Christopher J L Murray; Rafael Lozano
Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Kevin S Ikuta; Lucien R Swetschinski; Gisela Robles Aguilar; Fablina Sharara; Tomislav Mestrovic; Authia P Gray; Nicole Davis Weaver; Eve E Wool; Chieh Han; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Amirali Aali; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Getachew Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Amir Parsa Abhari; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Abdorrahim Absalan; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Juan Manuel Acuna; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A Adegboye; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Zahra Babaei Aghdam; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Rizwan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Mamoon A Aldeyab; Alicia V Aleman; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Kasim Allel; Sami Almustanyir; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Arianna Maever L Amit; Nivedita Anandavelane; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Dewi Anggraini; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Demelash Areda; Timur Aripov; Anton A Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Muhammad Asaduzzaman; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Sameh Attia; Marcel Ausloos; Tewachew Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; B. Darshan; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; Indrajit Banerjee; Aleksandra Barac; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Neeraj Bedi; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Rose G Bender; Bharti Bhandari; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Saeid Bitaraf; Danilo Buonsenso; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Jiao Cai; Daniela Calina; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Muge Cevik; Joshua Chadwick; Jaykaran Charan; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Patrick R Ching; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Xiaochen Dai; Saswati Das; Anna Dastiridou; Sisay Abebe Debela; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Diriba Dereje; Msganaw Derese; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Samuel Abebe A Dessalegni; Belay Desye; Kartik Dhaduk; Meghnath Dhimal; Sameer Dhingra; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Bezabih Terefe Dora; Fariba Dorostkar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Eleonora Dubljanin; Susanna J Dunachie; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Hisham Atan Edinur; Habtamu Bekele Ejigu; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Hassan El-Abid; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A Elmonem; Amir Emami; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Babak Eshrati; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Shahab Falahi; Aida Fallahzadeh; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Ali Fatehizadeh; Ginenus Fekadu; João C Fernandes; Allegra Ferrari; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Balasankar Ganesan; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Reza Ghanbari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Amador Goodridge; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Atlas Haddadi Avval; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Md Abdul Hannan; Harapan Harapan; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Nawfal R Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mohammad Tarique Imam; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Arnaud Iradukunda; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Chidozie C D Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Merin J. Linda; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Tahereh Javaheri; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Javad Javidnia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Jayarajah; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi; Vidya Kadashetti; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Samad Karkhah; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Abbas Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Mona M Khater; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Jagdish Khubchandani; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Niranjan Kissoon; Sonali Kochhar; Farzad Kompani; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Fiorella Krapp Lopez; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Vishnutheertha Kulkarni; Naveen Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Judit Lám; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Sang-Woong Lee; Jacopo Lenzi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Stephen S Lim; Wei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Michael J Loftus; Ayush Lohiya; Lászl Lorenzovici; Mojgan Lotfi; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Mansour Adam Mahmoud; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jamal Majidpoor; Alaa Makki; Galana Ayana Mamo; Yosef Manla; Miquel Martorell; Clara N Matei; Barney Mcmanigal; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ravi Mehrotra; Addisu Melese; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Ritesh G Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Georgia Micha; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira Des; Neda Milevska Kostova; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Mojgan Mirghafourvand; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-attari; Abay Sisay Misganaw; Awoke Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Mohammad Mohseni; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E Moore; Maryam Moradi; Mostafa Moradi Sarabi; Shane Douglas Morrison; Majid Motaghinejad; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Seyed Ali Mousavi-Aghdas; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Getaneh Baye B Mulu; Sandra B Munro; Saravanan Muthupandian; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Himanshi Narang; Zuhair S Natto; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Shumaila Naz; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Che Henry Ngwa; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira Des; Nafise Noroozi; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Jerry John Nutor; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Rahman Md Obaidur; Vivek Anand Ojha; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Nikita Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Tamás Palicz; Adrian Pana; Shahina Pardhan; Jose L Paredes; Utsav Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Seoyeon Park; Ashish Pathak; Rajan Paudel; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Minjin Peng; Umberto Pensato; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Marcos Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Norberto Perico; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Indrashis Podder; Nayanum Pokhrel; Ramesh Poluru; Maarten J Postma; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Ibrahim Qattea; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Saber Raeghi; Sima Rafiei; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Leila Rahbarnia; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pradhum Ram; Muhammad Modassar Ali Nawaz Ranjha; Sowmya J Rao; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Misganu Teshoma Regasa; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Melese Abate Reta; Nazila Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Abanoub Riad; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Kristina E Rudd; Basema Saddik; Saeid Sadeghian; Umar Saeed; Mohsen Safaei; Azam Safary; Sher Zaman Safi; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Saina Salahi; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hedayat Salari; Sana Salehi; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Nima Sanadgol; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Francesco Sanmarchi; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Pritik A Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mequannent Melaku Sharew; Athena Sharifi-Razavi; Purva Sharma; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Ali Sheikhy; Pavanchand H Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; K.M. Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Mustafa Kamal Sikder; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Damtew Damtew Solomon; Yimeng Song; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Saima Sultana; Miklós Szócska; Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh; Mohammad Tabish; Majid Taheri; Elahe Taki; Ker-Kan Tan; Sarmila Tandukar; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Belay Negash Tefera; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Samar Tharwat; Arulmani Thiyagarajan; Imad I Tleyjeh; Christopher E Troeger; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Jef Van Den Eynde; H Rogier Van Doorn; Siavash Vaziri; Georgios-Ioannis Verras; Harimadhav Viswanathan; Bay Vo; Abdul Waris; Gizachew Tadesse Wassie; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Sajad Yaghoubi; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yigit; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mazyar Zahir; Burhan Abdullah Zaman; Sojib Bin Zaman; Moein Zangiabadian; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Peng Zheng; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zoladl; Alimuddin Zumla; Simon I Hay; Christiane Dolecek; Benn Sartorius; Christopher J L Murray; Mohsen Naghavi
Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
The global, regional, and national burden of oesophageal cancer and its attributable risk factors in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Farin Kamangar; Dariush Nasrollahzadeh; Saeid Safiri; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Christina Fitzmaurice; Kevin S Ikuta; Catherine Bisignano; Farhad Islami; Gholamreza Roshandel; Stephen S Lim; Hassan Abolhassani; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Shailesh M Advani; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Vahid Alipour; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Abdulaziz M Almulhim; Nahla Hamed Anber; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Alaa Badawi; Kathleen S Sachiko Berfield; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Antonio Biondi; Tone Bjørge; Antonio Maria Borzì; Cristina Bosetti; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Clara Castro; Dinh-Toi Chu; Vera Marisa Costa; Baye Dagnew; Jiregna Darega Gela; Ahmad Daryani; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Iffat Elbarazi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Arash Etemadi; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Mohamed M Gad; Silvano Gallus; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Begashaw Melaku Gebresillassie; Fatemeh Ghasemi-Kebria; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Mahaveer Golechha; Giuseppe Gorini; Rahul Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; James D Harvey; Maryam Hashemian; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H Dean Hosgood; Mowafa Househ; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Charvi Jain; Spencer L James; Sun Ha Jee; Ravi Prakash Jha; Farahnaz Joukar; Ali Kabir; Amir Kasaeian; Mesfin Wudu Kassaw; Supreet Kaur; Andre Pascal Kengne; Esma Kerboua; Yousef Saleh Khader; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Abdullah T Khoja; Jonathan M Kocarnik; Hamidreza Komaki; Vivek Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Savita Lasrado; Bingyu Li; Alan D Lopez; Azeem Majeed; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Manu Raj Mathur; Varshil Mehta; Dhruv Mehta; Walter Mendoza; Prasanna Mithra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Delaram Moosavi; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Gurudatta Naik; Ionut Negoi; Haruna Asura Nggada; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Molly R Nixon; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Shanti Patel; Mona Pathak; Hai Quang Pham; Akram Pourshams; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Goura Kishor Rath; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Nima Rezaei; Elias Merdassa Roro; Anas M Saad; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M Samy; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Mario Sekerija; Feng Sha; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Reza Shirkoohi; Sudeep K Siddappa Malleshappa; Jasvinder A Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Catalin-Gabriel Smarandache; Sergey Soshnikov; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Bhaskar Thakur; Eugenio Traini; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Yousef Veisani; Isidora S Vujcic; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Rixing Xu; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Deniz Yuce; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Reza Malekzadeh; Mohsen Naghavi
Background Oesophageal cancer is a common and often fatal cancer that has two main histological subtypes: oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma and oesophageal adenocarcinoma. Updated statistics on the incidence and mortality of oesophageal cancer, and on the disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) caused by the disease, can assist policy makers in allocating resources for prevention, treatment, and care of oesophageal cancer. We report the latest estimates of these statistics for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017, by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD). Methods We used data from vital registration systems, vital registration-samples, verbal autopsy records, and cancer registries, combined with relevant modelling, to estimate the mortality, incidence, and burden of oesophageal cancer from 1990 to 2017. Mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) were estimated and fed into a Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) including risk factors. MIRs were used for mortality and non-fatal modelling. Estimates of DALYs attributable to the main risk factors of oesophageal cancer available in GBD were also calculated. The proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancers was extracted by use of publicly available data, and its variation was examined against SDI, the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index, and available risk factors in GBD that are specific for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (eg, unimproved water source and indoor air pollution) and for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (gastro-oesophageal reflux disease). Findings There were 473 000 (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI] 459 000-485 000) new cases of oesophageal cancer and 436 000 (425 000-448 000) deaths due to oesophageal cancer in 2017. Age-standardised incidence was 5.9 (5.7-6.1) per 100 000 population and age-standardised mortality was 5.5 (5.3-5.6) per 100 000. Oesophageal cancer caused 9.78 million (9.53-10.03) DALYs, with an age-standardised rate of 120 (117-123) per 100 000 population. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised incidence decreased by 22.0% (18.6-25.2), mortality decreased by 29.0% (25.8-32.0), and DALYs decreased by 33.4% (30.4-36.1) globally. However, as a result of population growth and ageing, the total number of new cases increased by 52.3% (45.9-58.9), from 310 000 (300 000-322 000) to 473 000 (459 000-485 000); the number of deaths increased by 40.0% (34.1-46.3), from 311 000 (301 000-323 000) to 436 000 (425 000-448 000); and total DALYs increased by 27.4% (22.1-33.1), from 7.68 million (7.42-7.97) to 9.78 million (9.53-10.03). At the national level, China had the highest number of incident cases (235 000 [223 000-246 000]), deaths (213 000 [203 000-223 000]), and DALYs (4.46 million [4.25-4.69]) in 2017. The highest national-level agestandardised incidence rates in 2017 were observed in Malawi (23.0 [19.4-26.5] per 100 000 population) and Mongolia (18.5 [16.4-20.8] per 100 000). In 2017, age-standardised incidence was 2.7 times higher, mortality 2.9 times higher, and DALYs 3.0 times higher in males than in females. In 2017, a substantial proportion of oesophageal cancer DALYs were attributable to known risk factors: tobacco smoking (39.0% [35.5-42.2]), alcohol consumption (33.8% [27.3-39.9]), high BMI (19.5% [6.3-36.0]), a diet low in fruits (19.1% [4.2-34.6]), and use of chewing tobacco (7.5% [5.2-9.6]). Countries with a low SDI and HAQ Index and high levels of indoor air pollution had a higher proportion of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma to all oesophageal cancer cases than did countries with a high SDI and HAQ Index and with low levels of indoor air pollution. Interpretation Despite reductions in age-standardised incidence and mortality rates, oesophageal cancer remains a major cause of cancer mortality and burden across the world. Oesophageal cancer is a highly fatal disease, requiring increased primary prevention efforts and, possibly, screening in some high-risk areas. Substantial variation exists in age-standardised incidence rates across regions and countries, for reasons that are unclear. © 2020 The Author(s).