Browsing by Author "Krittika Bhattacharyya"

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Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Amy E. Peden; Patricia Cullen; Kate Louise Francis; Holger Moeller; Margaret M. Peden; Pengpeng Ye; Maoyi Tian; Zhiyong Zou; Susan M. Sawyer; Amirali Aali; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Meriem Abdoun; Rami Abd-Rabu; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Ame Mehadi Abdurehman; Getachew Abebe; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu Gharbieh; Denberu Eshetie Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Ololade Grace Adewole; Sangeet Adhikari; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Bachelor Afolabi; Saira Afzal; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Zahra Babaei Aghdam; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Janardhana P. Aithala; Budi Aji; Meisam Akhlaghdoust; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Astawus Alemayehu; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Shujait Ali; Liaqat Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Louay Almidani; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami; Sohrab Amiri; Hoda Amiri; Tadele Fentabil Anagaw; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Davood Anvari; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Asrat Arja; Judie Arulappan; Ashokan Arumugam; Armin Aryannejad; Saeed Asgary; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Alok Atreya; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Samad Azari; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Asaminew Birhanu Balta; MacIej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Hansi Bansal; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco BaroneAdesi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Abebe Ayalew Bekel; Alehegn Bekele Bekele; Salaheddine Bendak; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Saeid Bitaraf; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Souad Bouaoud; Julie Brown; Katrin Burkart; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Luis Alberto CÃ¡mera; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Chao Cao; Andre F. Carvalho; MÃ¡rcia Carvalho; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Eeshwar K. Chandrasekar; Jung-Chen Chang; Periklis Charalampous; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bitew Mekonnen Chekole; Abdulaal Chitheer; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Hitesh Chopra; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; NatÃ¡lia Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Gary L. Darmstadt; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Anna Dastiridou; Sisay Abebe Debela; Amin Dehghan; Getnet Makasha Demeke; Andreas K. Demetriades; Solomon Demissie; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Ahmed Elabbas Mustafa Elagali; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Abbas Farmany; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Getahun Fetensa; Bikila Regassa Feyisa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Behzad Foroutan; Masoud Foroutan; Kayode Raphael Fowobaje; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A. Gadanya; Yaseen Galali; Nasrin Galehdar; Balasankar Ganesan; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot; Yosef Haile Gebremariam; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Urge Gerema; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Reza Ghanbari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Ali Gholami; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Sherief Ghozy; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Iago GinÃ©-VÃ¡zquez; Zeleke Abate Girma; James C. Glasbey; Franklin N. Glozah; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Michal Grivna; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Yuming Guo; Veer Bala Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Bhawna Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Netanja I. Harlianto; Mehdi Harorani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Yuta Hiraike; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Sedighe Hosseini Shabanan; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Amir Human Hoveidaei; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Salman Hussain; Amal Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Behzad Imani; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Mohammad Mainul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; J. Linda Merin; Haitham Jahrami; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Umesh Jayarajah; Sudha Jayaraman; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Bedru Jemal; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk JÃ¼risson; Ali Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Dler Hussein Kadir; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Rajesh Kamath; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Hassan Karami; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Samad Karkhah; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Joonas H. Kauppila; Gbenga A. Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Cumali Keskin; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Yusra H. Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Abbas Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Habibolah Khazaie; Jagdish Khubchandani; Zemene Demelash Kifle; Jihee Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Cameron J. Kneib; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nithin Kumar; Naveen Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Lucie Laflamme; Judit LÃ¡m; IvÃ¡n Landires; Bagher Larijani; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Carlo La Vecchia; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Yo Han Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei Chen Lee; Samson Mideksa Legesse; Shanshan Li; Stephen S. Lim; LÃ¡szlÃ³ Lorenzovici; Amana Ogeto Luke; Farzan Madadizadeh; Áurea M. Madureira-Carvalho; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Soleiman Mahjoub; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Elezebeth Mathews; Sazan Qadir Maulud; Dennis Mazingi; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Ritesh G. Menezes; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Atte Meretoja; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá; Ted R. Miller; Seyed Peyman Mirghaderi; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Chaitanya Mittal; Madeline E. Moberg; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Soheil Mohammadi; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Mohammad Mohseni; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Sumaira Mubarik; Lorenzo Muccioli; Soumyadeep Mukherjee; Francesk Mulita; Ghulam Mustafa; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Hasan Nassereldine; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Nafise Noroozi; Virginia NuÃ±ez-Samudio; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Chimedsuren Ochir; Julius Nyerere Odhiambo; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Nikita Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Aslam Ramjan Pathan; Siddhartha Pati; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Mario F.P. Peres; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Michael R. Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Mohsen Poursadeqiyan; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Ibrahim Qattea; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Fakher Rahim; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Firman Suryadi Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Sheetal Raj Moolambally; Sheena Ramazanu; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. 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Shah; Saeed Shahabi; Ataollah Shahbandi; Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohd Shanawaz; Mohammed Shannawaz; Mequannent Melaku Sharew Sharew; Neeraj Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Maryam Shayan; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jiabin Shen; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Jae Il Shin; Nebiyu Aniley Shitaye; K.M. Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Soraya Siabani; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Wudneh Simegn; Ehsan Sinaei; Paramdeep Singh; Robert Sinto; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; S.N. Chandan; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Yonatan Solomon; Yi Song; Raúl A.R.C. Sousa; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Mark A. Stokes; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Jing Sun; Rafael TabarÃ©s-Seisdedos; Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei; Mohammad Tabish; Ensiyeh Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Mircea Tampa; KerKan Tan; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Md Tariqujjaman; Nathan Y. 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Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hossein Yusefi; Mazyar Zahir; Sojib Bin Zaman; Iman Zare; Kourosh Zarea; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohammad Zoladl; George C. Patton; Rebecca Q. Ivers
Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018
(Nature Research, 2021) Damaris Kinyoki; Aaron E. Osgood-Zimmerman; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Dan Lu; Samuel B. Ewald; Katie M. Donkers; Ian D. Letourneau; Michael Collison; Megan F. Schipp; Amanuel Abajobir; Sima Abbasi; Nooshin Abbasi; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Biju Abraham; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Pradyumna Agasthi; Mohammad Aghaali; Sohail Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Budi Aji; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Ziyad Al-Aly; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Ayinalem Alemu; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Fatemeh Amiri; Dickson A. Amugsi; Nahla Hamed Anber; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Masresha Tessema Anegago; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Al Artaman; Afsaneh Arzani; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Mengistu M. Ashebir; Zerihun Ataro; Seyyede Masoume Athari; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Abbas Azadmehr; Darshan B; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Palash Chandra Banik; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Miguel A. Barboza; Huda Basaleem; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Neeraj Bedi; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L. Bell; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Kidanemariam Alem Berhie; Dinesh Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Minyichil Birhanu; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Moses John Bockarie; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mahdi Bohluli; Archith Boloor; Shiva Borzouei; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Andre R. Brunoni; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Muge Cevik; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Simiao Chen; Ken Lee Chin; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Aubrey J. Cook; Vera Marisa Costa; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Henok Dagne; Baye Dagnew; Tukur Dahiru; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Haijiang Dai; Hancheng Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Farah Daoud; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Aditya Prasad Dash; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Farah Deeba; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Assefa Desalew; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Sagnik Dey; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Bereket Duko; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Lucas Earl; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ferry Efendi; Rajesh Elayedath; Teshome Bekele Elema; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Aisha Elsharkawy; Yasser Mohamed El-Sherbiny; Maha El Tantawi; Daniel Adane Endalew; Babak Eshrati; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ibtihal Fadhil; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Mohammad Fareed; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L. Feigin; Berhanu Elfu Feleke; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Nataliya A. Foigt; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Marisa Freitas; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Birhan Gebresillassie Gebregiorgis; Hadush Gebremariam; Tesfay B. B. Gebremariam; Leake Gebremeskel; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Assefa Ayalew Gebreslassie; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Bradford D. Gessner; Lemma Getacher; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Mahsa Ghajarzadeh; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Myron Anthony Godinho; Philimon N. Gona; Ayman Grada; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Nachiket Gudi; Davide Guido; Rashid Abdi Guled; Yuming Guo; Rachita Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Syed Shahzad Hasan; Maryam Hashemian; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Hagos Degefa de Hidru; Chi Linh Hoang; Ramesh Holla; Julia Hon; Sung Hwi Hong; Praveen Hoogar; Seyyed Nasrollah Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Mowafa Househ; Tanvir M. Huda; Dawit Hoyiso Huluko Huluko; Syed Ather Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Farzad Jalilian; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Ravi Prakash Jha; Oommen John; Kimberly B. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Nitin Joseph; Ankur Joshi; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Tanvir Kahlon; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Umesh Kapil; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Salah Eddin Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Gebrehiwot G. Kassa; Getinet Kassahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Tibebeselassie S. Keflie; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Bayew Kelkay; Maryam Keramati; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Junaid Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Neda Kianipour; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Tufa Kolola; Ali Koolivand; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Ben Lacey; Deepesh P. Lad; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Matthew B. Laurens; Carlo La Vecchia; Avula Laxmaiah; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Sonia Lewycka; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Daiane Borges Machado; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; D.R. Mahadeshwara Prasad; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mina Maheri; Narayan B. Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Venkatesh Maled; Shokofeh Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Md Dilshad Dilshad Manzar; Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Pallab K. Maulik; Benjamin K. Mayala; Medhin Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Teferi Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Mulugeta Melku; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Abera M. Mersha; Workua Mekonnen Metekiya; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; G.K. Mini; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Yousef Mohammad; Dara K. Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Hayat Maeruf Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Mohammad A. Mohseni Bandpei; Ali H. Mokdad; Alex Molassiotis; Lorenzo Monasta; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Abbas Mosapour; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Getaneh Baye B. Mulu; Mehnaz Munir; Moses K. Muriithi; G.V.S. Murthy; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Mohsen Naghavi; Gurudatta Naik; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Smitha Nayak; Vinod C. Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Amin Reza Nikpoor; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Vuong Minh Nong; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Tafadzwa Nyanhanda; Bogdan Oancea; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Daniel Micheal Okello; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T. Olagunju; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Muktar Omer Omer; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Eduardo Ortiz-Panozo; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Sangram Kishor Patel; Urvish K. Patel; Ashish Pathak; George C. Patton; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Jeevan Pereira; Julia Moreira Pescarini; Hai Quang Pham; Brandon V. Pickering; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadis Pourchamani; Hadi Pourjafar; Hossein Poustchi; Sergio I. Prada; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Ata Rafiee; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Aashish Rajesh; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Satish Rao; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Lal Rawal; Wasiq Faraz Rawasia; Reza Rawassizadeh; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Robert C. Reiner; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniela Ribeiro; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Hirbo Shore Roba; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Morteza Rostamian; Susan Fred Rumisha; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Deepak Saxena; Alyssa N. Sbarra; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Debarka Sengupta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Mohammad Shahbaz; Izza Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Ali S. Shalash; Mahdi Shamali; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; MohammadBagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Amrollah Sharifi; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; Ranjitha S. Shetty; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Adithi Shetty; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Velizar Shivarov; Soraya Siabani; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Balbir Bagicha Singh; Surya Singh; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Iyad Sultan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Zemenu Tamir; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Md Ismail Tareque; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Hirut Teame; Yonas Getaye Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Yohannes Tekalegn; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Berhane Fseha Teklehaimanot; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Nihal Thomas; Takele Tiki; Asres Bedaso Tilahune; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Rajnish Tripathi; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Phuong N. Truong; Riaz Uddin; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Marco Vacante; Alireza Vakilian; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Yasser Vasseghian; Madhur Verma; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Kinley Wangdi; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Andrea Werdecker; Taweewat Wiangkham; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Ai-Min Wu; Chenkai Wu; Yang Xie; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Mingyou Yang; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Tomas Y. Yeheyis; Alex Yeshaneh; Yigizie Yeshaw; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Melissa F. Young; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof; Abdilahi Yousuf Yousuf; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Shamsa Zafar; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Zoubida Zaidi; Josefina Zakzuk; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Alireza Zandifar; Alireza Zangeneh; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Dejene Tesfaye Zewdie; Kaleab Alemayehu Zewdie; Yunquan Zhang; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Simon I. Hay
Anemia is a globally widespread condition in women and is associated with reduced economic productivity and increased mortality worldwide. Here we map annual 2000–2018 geospatial estimates of anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age (15–49 years) across 82 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), stratify anemia by severity and aggregate results to policy-relevant administrative and national levels. Additionally, we provide subnational disparity analyses to provide a comprehensive overview of anemia prevalence inequalities within these countries and predict progress toward the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target (WHO GNT) to reduce anemia by half by 2030. Our results demonstrate widespread moderate improvements in overall anemia prevalence but identify only three LMICs with a high probability of achieving the WHO GNT by 2030 at a national scale, and no LMIC is expected to achieve the target in all their subnational administrative units. Our maps show where large within-country disparities occur, as well as areas likely to fall short of the WHO GNT, offering precision public health tools so that adequate resource allocation and subsequent interventions can be targeted to the most vulnerable populations. © 2021, The Author(s).
Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Annie Haakenstad; Jamal Akeem Yearwood; Nancy Fullman; Corinne Bintz; Kelly Bienhoff; Marcia R Weaver; Vishnu Nandakumar; Jonah N Joffe; Kate E LeGrand; Megan Knight; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Budi Aji; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Khurshid Alam; Hanadi Al Hamad; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Hubert Amu; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Pedro Prata Andrade; Afifa Anjum; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Hany Ariffin; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Tahira Ashraf; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Shrikala Baliga; Palash Chandra Banik; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Rebuma Belete; Arielle Wilder Bell; Devidas S Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Vera L A Carneiro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Joht Singh Chandan; Jaykaran Charan; Prachi P Chavan; Simiao Chen; Shu Chen; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Massimo Cirillo; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Saad M A Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Keshab Deuba; Meghnath Dhimal; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andem Effiong; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Islam Y Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Santosh Gaihre; William M Gardner; Tushar Garg; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Jenny S Guadamuz; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; M Tasdik Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Nathaniel J Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sahadat Hossain; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Junjie Huang; M Mamun Huda; Susan C Ifeagwu; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Rajesh Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Kaloyan Kamenov; Himal Kandel; Rami S Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Marina Karanikolos; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Taras Kavetskyy; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Maseer Khan; Mehdi Khezeli; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Vitalii Klymchuk; Kamrun Nahar Koly; Oleksii Korzh; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Shanshan Li; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Adolfo Martinez-Valle; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Richard James Maude; Pallab K Maulik; Martin McKee; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Simin Mouodi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Chie Nagata; Mohsen Naghavi; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Hasan Nassereldine; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Bogdan Oancea; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Adrian Otoiu; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Praveen Kumar Pathak; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Manju Pilania; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Vivek Podder; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Sergio I Prada; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Harihar Sahoo; Maitreyi Sahu; Joseph S Salama; Payman Salamati; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Maria Inês Schmidt; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Adithi Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Azad Shokri; Jasvinder A Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Raúl A R C Sousa; Jacqueline H Stephens; Jing Sun; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Niharika Tripathi; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Christopher E Troeger; Deinzel Robles Uezono; Saif Ullah; Anayat Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Milena Vasic; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiǧit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Stephen S Lim; Christopher J L Murray; Rafael Lozano
Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Author Correction: Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017 (Nature Medicine, (2020), 26, 5, (750-759), 10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6)
(Nature Research, 2020) Damaris K. Kinyoki; Jennifer M. Ross; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Sandra B. Munro; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Mahdieh Abbasalizad-Farhangi; Masoumeh Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Ahmed Abdelalim; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Maryam Adabi; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Posi Emmanuel Aduroja; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mohammad Aghaali; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Olufemi Ajumobi; Chalachew Genet Akal; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Ziyad Al-Aly; Samiah Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Muhammad Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Afshin Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Azmeraw T. Amare; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever Loreche Amit; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Zelalem Alamrew Anteneh; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ephrem Mebrahtu Araya; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Samaneh Asgari; Babak Asghari; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Anemaw A. 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Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Setognal Birara; Minuye Biniam Biniam Birhane; Minyichil Birhanu; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Somayeh Bohlouli; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Antonio M. Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Ester Cerin; Collins Chansa; Jaykaran Charan; Pranab Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Ali Reza Chavshin; Mohammad Chehrazi; Tesfaye Yitna Chichiabellu; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Flavia M. 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Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mohammed Madadin; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ali Manafi; Farzad Manafi; Navid Manafi; Narendar Dawanu Manohar; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Laurie B. Marczak; Carlos Alberto Marrugo Arnedo; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Benjamin K. Mayala; Mohsen Mazidi; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Freshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen; Teferi Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomasz Miazgowski; Neda Milevska Kostova; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; G.K. 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An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper. © 2020, The Author(s).
Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(American Medical Association, 2022) Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Kelly Compton; Frances E. Dean; Weijia Fu; Brian L. Gaw; James D. Harvey; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Dan Lu; Alyssa Pennini; Rixing Xu; Emad Ababneh; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Hassan Abolhassani; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Saqib Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Nivaldo Alonso; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Maxwell Hubert Antwi; Davood Anvari; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Hany Ariffin; Timur Aripov; Muhammad Arshad; Al Artaman; Judie Arulappan; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Prince Atorkey; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Temesgen Ayenew; Mohammed A. Azab; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Masoud Behzadifar; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Catherine Bisignano; Tone Bjorge; Archie Bleyer; Oleg Blyuss; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Dejana Braithwaite; Amanpreet Brar; Hermann Brenner; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Ferrán Catalá-López; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Achille Cernigliaro; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Joao Conde; Sanda Cortés; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Amanda Ramos Cunha; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; José das Neves; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Saeid Doaei; Fariba Dorostkar; Francisco Winter dos Santos Figueiredo; Tim Robert Driscoll; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maha El Tantawi; Hassan El-Abid; Iffat Elbarazi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Arash Etemadi; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Silvano Gallus; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat T. Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Avirup Guha; D. Sanjeeva Gunasekera; Bhawna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Fernando N. Hugo; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Fidelia Ida; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Shubha Jayaram; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Danial Kahrizi; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Nawzad Kameran Al-Salihi; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Taras Kavetskyy; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Rovshan Khalilov; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Amir M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Gyu Ri Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Tezer Kutluk; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Paolo Lauriola; Sang-Woong Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Jiarui Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Xuefeng Liu; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Shilpa Male; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Prashant Mathur; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Hamed Mirzaei; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Mohammad Amin Moosavi; Yousef Moradi; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Sumaira Mubarik; Lillian Mwanri; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Chie Nagata; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Rawlance Ndejjo; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Nurulamin M. Noor; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Emad Omar; Ahmed Omar Bali; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Sokking Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Hans Orru; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Demosthenes Panagiotakos; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Harsh K. Patel; Jenil R. Patel; Siddhartha Pati; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Uttam Paudel; David M. Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Julian David Pillay; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Farhad Pishgar; Indrashis Podder; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Akila Prashant; Liliana Preotescu; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Ata Rafiee; Fakher Rahim; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Thomas J. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Peter Rohloff; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; S. Manjula; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Yaeesh Sardiwalla; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Sekerija; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Zahra Shaghaghi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Erfan Shamsoddin; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Velizar Shivarov; Soraya Siabani; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matthew J. Soeberg; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Houman Sotoudeh; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Kurt Straif; Ranjeeta Subedi; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Iyad Sultan; Saima Sultana; Daniel Sur; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Hooman Tadbiri; Amir Taherkhani; Ken Takahashi; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Vivian Y. Tat; Bemnet Amare A. Tedla; Yonas Getaye Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Viveksandeep Thoguluva Chandrasekar; Nihal Thomas; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Massimiliano Veroux; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Paul Ward; Yi Feng Wen; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Fariba Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Jianrong Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Linghui Zhou; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Ivan R. Zimmermann; Christina Fitzmaurice; Christopher J.L. Murray; Lisa M. Force
IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
Department of Error: Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2020) 395(10239) (1779–1801), (S0140673620301148), (10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30114-8))
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Robert C. Reiner; Kirsten E. Wiens; Aniruddha Deshpande; Mathew M. Baumann; Paulina A. Lindstedt; Brigette F. Blacker; Christopher E. Troeger; Lucas Earl; Sandra B. Munro; Degu Abate; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Getaneh Abebe; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mohsen Afarideh; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Anwar E. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Olufemi Ajumobi; Chalachew Genet Akal; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; James R. Albright; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde Rabanal; Birhan Tamene Alemnew; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Muhammad Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Azmeraw T. Amare; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever Loreche Amit; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Masresha Tessema Anegago; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Bahram Armoon; Krishna K. Aryal; Afsaneh Arzani; Mohsen Asadi-Lari; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Asnakew Achaw Ayele; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yibeltal Alemu Bekele; Michelle L. Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Dessalegn Ajema Berbada; Tina Beyranvand; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Somayeh Bohlouli; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Franz Castro; Collins Chansa; Pranab Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Rafael M. Claro; Natalie M. Cormier; Vera M. Costa; Giovanni Damiani; Farah Daoud; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Claudio Alberto Davila; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Jan-Walter De Neve; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Assefa Desalew; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Preeti Dhillon; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Eric L. Ding; Helen Derara Diro; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; David Teye Doku; Christiane Dolecek; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko Adema; Susanna J. Dunachie; Andre R. Durães; Senbagam Duraisamy; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Hajer Elkout; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Aklilu Endalamaw; Daniel Adane Endalew; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Arash Etemadi; Tamer H. Farag; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Hossein Farzam; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Joseph Jon Frostad; Takeshi Fukumoto; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Fariba Ghassemi; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Srinivas Goli; Nelson G.M. Gomes; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Barbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian James Hall; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Hamidreza Haririan; Ninuk Hariyani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md. Mehedi Hasan; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Desta Haftu Hayelom; Behnam Heidari; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hagos D. de Hidru; Chi Linh Hoang; Praveen Hoogar; Mojtaba Hoseini-Ghahfarokhi; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Guoqing Hu; Ayesha Humayun; Syed Ather Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Anelisa Jaca; Nader Jafari Balalami; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Peng Jia; Kimberly B. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jóźwiak; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Hamed Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Surendra Karki; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ali Talha Khalil; Ibrahim Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir Khater; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mohammad Khazaei; Salman Khazaei; Ehsan Khodamoradi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli; Margaret N. Kosek; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Aparna Lal; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Paul H. Lee; Mostafa Leili; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Aubrey J. Levine; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Rakesh Lodha; Joshua Longbottom; Platon D. Lopukhov; Sameh Magdeldin; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Farzad Manafi; Navid Manafi; Ana-Laura Manda; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Laurie B. Marczak; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Anthony Masaka; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Benjamin K. Mayala; Colm McAlinden; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Addisu Melese; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Ritesh G. Menezes; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Bartosz Miazgowski; Kebadnew Mulatu M. Mihretie; Molly K. Miller-Petrie; Edward J. Mills; Seyed Mostafa Mir; Parvaneh Mirabi; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Dara K. Mohammad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Noushin Mohammadifard; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Mohammad Moradi-Joo; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Paula Moraga; Abbas Mosapour; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Miliva Mozaffor; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Christopher J.L. Murray; G.V.S. Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; QuynhAnh P. Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dabere Nigatu; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Marzieh Nojomi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; In-Hwan Oh; Oluchi Okpala; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Doris D.V. Ortega-Altamirano; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Frank B. Osei; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Tahereh Pashaei; Sanghamitra Pati; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Alexandre Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; David M. Pigott; Bakhtiar Piroozi; James A. Platts-Mills; Mario Poljak; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Sergio I. Prada; Liliana Preotescu; Hedley Quintana; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Fatemeh Rajati; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Saleem M. Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Melese Abate Reta; Satar Rezaei; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Elias Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; Salvatore Rubino; Anas M. Saad; Siamak Sabour; Ehsan Sadeghi; Saeed Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Mohammad Reza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Farkhonde Salehi; Saleh Salehi Zahabi; Hosni Salem; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Itamar S. Santos; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Alyssa N. Sbarra; Lauren E. Schaeffer; David C. Schwebel; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammad Bagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mehdi Sharif; Muki Shehu Shey; Kenji Shibuya; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Apurba Shil; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Malede Mequanent Sisay; Eirini Skiadaresi; David L. Smith; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Anton Sokhan; Moslem Soofi; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Bryan L. Sykes; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Aberash Abay Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Bineyam Taye; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Boikhutso Tlou; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Khanh Bao Tran; Indang Trihandini; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Yousef Veisani; Francesco S. Violante; Sebastian Vollmer; Theo Vos; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Catherine A. Welgan; Ronny Westerman; Taweewat Wiangkham; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Ai-Min Wu; Gelin Xu; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Mehdi Yaseri; Muluken Azage Yenesew; Alex Yeshaneh; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. 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Reiner RC Jr, Hay SI. Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2020; 395: 1779–801—In this Article, the author byline has been amended to Local Burden of Disease Diarrhoea Collaborators. This correction has been made to the online version as of June 4, 2020, and the printed version is correct. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Ewerton Cousin; Bruce B. Duncan; Caroline Stein; Kanyin Liane Ong; Theo Vos; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Amir Abdoli; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abolhassani; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Gina Agarwal; Krishna K. Agrawaal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Ziyad Al-Aly; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Ranjit Mohan Anjana; Adnan Ansar; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Damian Arizmendi; Benedetta Armocida; Anton A. Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Samaneh Asgari; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Jennifer L. Baker; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Palash Chandra Banik; Anthony Barnett; Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Neeraj Bedi; Rebuma Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; David Beran; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Setognal Birara; Virginia Bodolica; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Yin Cao; Chao Cao; Ester Cerin; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Joht Singh Chandan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Simiao Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Daniel Diaz; Sanam Ebtehaj; Hisham Atan Edinur; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Umar Farooque; Xiaoqi Feng; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Marisa Freitas; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Piyada Gaewkhiew; Lemma Getacher; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Ghozali Ghozali; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Syed Shahzad Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Sahadat Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S. Ikuta; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Md Shariful Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Oommen John; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Gbenga A. Kayode; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Moien A. B. Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Amir M. Khater; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Oleksii Korzh; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Ming-Chieh Li; Stephen S. Lim; Lee-Ling Lim; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Borhan Mansouri; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Prashant Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Nafiul Mehedi; Teferi Mekonnen; Ritesh G. Menezes; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Agha Zeeshan Mirza; Prasanna Mithra; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Christopher J. L. Murray; Ahmad Mustafa; Gabriele Nagel; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Temitope T. Ojo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Raffaele Palladino; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Tarang Parekh; Mojtaba Parvizi; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Manju Pilania; Vivek Podder; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akila Prashant; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Nazanin Rajai; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Satish Rao; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniela Ribeiro; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Peter Rohloff; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Paul MacDaragh Ryan; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Markus P. Schlaich; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Mario Šekerija; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Hina Shamshad; Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Kerem Shuval; Jasvinder A. Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Amin Soheili; Jing Sun; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Md. Tariqujjaman; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nihal Thomas; Binod Timalsina; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Riaz Uddin; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Madhur Verma; Victor E. Villalobos-Daniel; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet; Xiaoyue Xu; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Siyan Yi; Naohiro Yonemoto; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Nelson Zamora; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zmaili; Alimuddin Zumla; Mohsen Naghavi; Maria Inês Schmidt
Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Katrin Burkart; Kate Causey; Aaron J Cohen; Sarah S Wozniak; Devashri Digvijay Salvi; Cristiana Abbafati; Victor Adekanmbi; Jose C Adsuar; Keivan Ahmadi; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Timur Aripov; Ebrahim Babaee; MacIej Banach; Anthony Barnett; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Robert S Bernstein; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Somayeh Bohlouli; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Zahid A Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; Kairat Davletov; Barbora De Courten; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Bruce B Duncan; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Mohammad Fareed; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Marisa Freitas; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Randah R Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J Hankey; Edris Hasanpoor; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I Hay; Behzad Heibati; Michael K Hole; Naznin Hossain; Mowafa Househ; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jalil Jaafari; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Amir Kasaeian; Neda Kaydi; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir M Khater; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D Knibbs; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H Lee; Mostafa Leili; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Yong Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan B Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Abdullah A Mamun; Navid Manafi; Santi Martini; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Ritesh G Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Bahram Mohajer; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Gurudatta Naik; Vinay Nangia; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Mayowa O Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Samira Raoofi; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Daniela Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kerem Shuval; Ireneous N Soyiri; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Lorainne Tudor Car; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Francesco S Violante; Yasir Waheed; Charles D A Wolfe; Tomohide Yamada; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Sojib Bin Zaman; Yunquan Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Stephen S Lim; Jeffrey D Stanaway; Michael Brauer
Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5. Interpretation: Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: Methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020) Spencer L. James; Chris D. Castle; Zachary V. Dingels; Jack T. Fox; Erin B. Hamilton; Zichen Liu; Nicholas L. S. Roberts; Dillon O. Sylte; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Matthew Cunningham; Nathaniel J. Henry; Kate E. Legrand; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Jose C. Adsuar; Shailesh M. Advani; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Tauseef Ahmad; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Niguse Meles Alema; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Suliman A. Alghnam; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Saqib Ali; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Khalid Altirkawi; Yasser Sami Abdeldayem Amer; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Amit Arora; Malke Asaad; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Ghasem Azarian; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Ahad Bakhtiari; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Amrit Banstola; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Akbar Barzegar; Mohsen Bayati; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Habte Belete; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Archith Boloor; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Antonio Maria Borzì; Soufiane Boufous; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Traolach Brugha; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Joht S. Chandan; Jens Robert Chapman; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Irini Chatziralli; Neha Chaudhary; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young J. Choi; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Flavia M. Cicuttini; João M. Coelho; Vera M. Costa; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Ahmad Daryani; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Diego De Leo; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Kebede Deribe; Rupak Desai; Mostafa Dianati Nasab; Diana Dias Da Silva; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Hoa Thi Do; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko Adema; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Maysaa El Sayedzaki; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Hadush Gebremariam; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Leake G. Gebremeskel; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Berhe Gebremichael; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Birhanu Geta; Agegnehu Bante Getenet; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Asadollah Gholamian; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Michal Grivna; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Gaurav Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Brian James Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Josep Maria Haro; Amir Hasanzadeh; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Delia Hendrie; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Martha Híjar; Hung Chak Ho; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Sudha Jayaraman; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Jost B. Jonas; Kelly M. Jones; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Teshome Abegaz Kamil; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Manoochehr Karami; Amir Kasaeian; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye; Taras Kavetskyy; Gbenga A. Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Maseer Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Tripti Khanna; Salman Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Roba Khundkar; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Daniel Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Hamidreza Komaki; Shivakumar K. M. Kondlahalli; Ali Koolivand; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; Nithin Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Arman Latifi; Paolo Lauriola; Carlo La Vecchia; Janet L. Leasher; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Shanshan Li; Xuefeng Liu; Alan D. Lopez; Paulo A. Lotufo; Ronan A. Lyons; Daiane Borges Machado; Mohammed Madadin; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Venkatesh Maled; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Navid Manafi; Amir Manafi; Ana-Laura Manda; Narayana Manjunatha; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik; Peter T. N. Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Mohammad A. Mohseni Bandpei; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Masoud Moradi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najaf; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod Nayak; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Heather M. Orpana; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; A.P. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Sanghamitra Pati; Kebreab Paulos; Amy E. Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Jeevan Pereira; Michael R. Phillips; Roman V. Polibin; Suzanne Polinder; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Parul Puri; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Ata Rafee; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Siavash Rahimi; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Basema Saddik; Hamid Safarpour; Mahdi Safdarian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Payman Salamati; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Feng Sha; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pankaj Kumar Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Amin Soheili; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Mark A. Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu; Ayenew Kassie Tesema Tesema; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Roman Topor-Madry; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Alexander C. Tsai; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Olalekan A. Uthman; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yousefi Veisani; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Habte Woldeyes; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Ai-Min Wu; Grant M. A. Wyper; Rajaram Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Yoosik Youm; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousef; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Fatemeh Zarei; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Rakhi Dandona; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Simon I. Hay; Ali H. Mokdad; David M. Pigott; Robert C. Reiner; Theo Vos
Background: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. Methods: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. Results: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. Conclusions: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC B Y. Published by BMJ.
Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Emma Nichols; Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Stein Emil Vollset; Kai Fukutaki; Julian Chalek; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Tayyaba Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Hubert Amu; Iman Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Getinet Ayano; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Atif Amin Baig; Anthony Barnett; Amadou Barrow; Bernhard T. Baune; Yannick Béjot; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Atanu Biswas; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Carol Brayne; Hermann Brenner; Katrin Burkart; Richard A. Burns; Luis Alberto Cámera; Chao Cao; Felix Carvalho; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Prachi P. Chavan; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh-Toi Chu; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A.S. Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Abdel Douiri; David Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Jawad Fares; Andre Faro; Umar Farooque; Valery L. Feigin; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Howard Fillit; Florian Fischer; Shilpa Gaidhane; Lucia Galluzzo; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Alessandro Gialluisi; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glavan; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; M. Tasdik Hasan; Amr Hassan; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Rizwan Kalani; Amit Kandel; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Gizat M. Kassie; Pedram Keshavarz; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Walter J. Koroshetz; Ai Koyanagi; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Yuewei Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Ahmad Azam Malik; João Massano; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Bahram Mohajer; Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim; Yousef Mohammad; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Stefania Mondello; Mohammad Ali Moni; Md Moniruzzaman; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Gabriele Nagel; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bogdan Oancea; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Maja Pasovic; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Carrie B. Peterson; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A. Piradov; Constance Dimity Pond; Michele H. Potashman; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Sergio I. Prada; Amir Radfar; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Mosiur Rahman; Pradhum Ram; Priyanga Ranasinghe; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Stephen R. Robinson; Michele Romoli; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Silvia Schiavolin; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Masood Ali Shaikh; K.S. Shaji; Mohammed Shannawaz; Jeevan K. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Renata Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amanda E. Smith; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Bhaskar Thakur; Binod Timalsina; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yuan-Pang Wang; Anders Wimo; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lin Yang; Yuichiro Yano; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Christopher J.L. Murray; Theo Vos
Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohammad Abbasi; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Aidin Abedi; Parisa Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Victor Aboyans; Elissa M. Abrams; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Alyssa Acebedo; Ilana N. Ackerman; Maryam Adabi; Tim Adair; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie D. Adelson; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Emilie E. Agardh; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Kareha M. Agesa; Mohammad Aghaali; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Budi Aji; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Samuel B. Albertson; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M. Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Arwa Khalid Alumran; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Azmeraw T. Amare; Bekalu Amare; Saeed Amini; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Arya Aminorroaya; Fatemeh Amiri; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Dickson A. Amugsi; Gianna Gayle Herrera Amul; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Colin Angus; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Iman Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Aseb Arba Kinfe Arba; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Timur Aripov; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Oluwaseyi Olalekan Arowosegbe; Krishna K. Aryal; Afsaneh Arzani; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Samaneh Asgari; Babak Asghari; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Charlie Ashbaugh; Michael Assmus; Zahra Atafar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide Frinel Gbenato Arthur Avokpaho; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Getie Lake Aynalem; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Gulrez Azhar; Peter S. Azzopardi; B.B. Darshan; Ebrahim Babaee; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Eleni Bagli; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Arun Balachandran; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Shivanthi Balalla; Shelly Balassyano; Alberto Baldasseroni; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Daniela Balzi; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Marlena S. Bannick; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Simachew Animen Bante; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Lingkan Barua; Akbar Barzegar; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Jacob S. Becker; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Tariku Tesfaye Tesfaye Bekuma; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Rose G. Bender; Derrick A. Bennett; Fiona B. Bennitt; Isabela M. Bensenor; Catherine P. Benziger; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Neeraj Bhala; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Donal Bisanzio; Catherine Bisignano; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Helen Bitew; Tone Bjørge; Moses John Bockarie; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mehdi Bohluli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Dipan Bose; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Carol Brayne; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Alexey V. Breusov; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrew M. Briggs; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Traolach Brugha; Dana Bryazka; Rachelle Buchbinder; Blair R. Bumgarner; Katrin Burkart; Richard Thomas Burnett; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Leah E. Cahill; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Tianji Cai; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jackie Cao; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Chris D. Castle; Emma Castro; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kate Causey; Christopher R. Cederroth; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Julian Chalek; Joht Singh Chandan; Alex R. Chang; Angela Y. Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Kai-Lan Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Nicolas Cherbuin; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ken Lee Chin; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Beniamino Cislaghi; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Classen; Aaron J. Cohen; Emma L. Collins; Haley Comfort; Kelly Compton; Sara Conti; Owen R. Cooper; Barbara Corso; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Richard G. Cowden; Benjamin C. Cowie; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Andrew J. Croneberger; Di H. Cross; Marita Cross; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Jessica A. Cruz; Steven Cummins; Matthew Cunningham; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Haijiang Dai; Hancheng Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; William James Dangel; Anna-Karin Danielsson; Jiregna Darega Gela; Paul I. Dargan; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José das Neves; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Frances E. Dean; Nicole K. DeCleene; Amanda Deen; Louisa Degenhardt; Marissa DeLang; Robert Paul Dellavalle; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nebiyu Dereje Dereje; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Assefa Desalew; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Martin Dichgans; Alireza Didarloo; Zachary V. Dingels; Ilse N. Dippenaar; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christiane Dolecek; Andrew J. Dolgert; Fariba Dorostkar; Chirag P. Doshi; Pratik P. Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Abdel Douiri; Matthew C. Doxey; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Susanna J. Dunachie; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Joshua R. Ehrlich; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Jessica Fanzo; Tamer Farag; Mohammad Farahmand; Anwar Faraj; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Mithila Faruque; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Pietro Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Ryan Fitzgerald; Carsten Flohr; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Lisa M. Force; Carla Fornari; Masoud Foroutan; Jack T. Fox; Joel Msafiri Francis; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Marisa Freitas; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; João M. Furtado; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Emmanuela Gakidou; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abiyu Mekonnen Gebrehiwot; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Leake G. Gebremeskel; Begashaw Melaku Gebresillassie; Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Abraham Geremew; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Maryam Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Rakesh Ghosh; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Themba G. Ginindza; Mojgan Gitimoghaddam; Giorgia Giussani; Mustefa Glagn; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Emily Goren; Giuseppe Gorini; Taren M. Gorman; Harrison Chase Gottlich; Houman Goudarzi; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Nachiket Gudi; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Teklemariam Gultie; Gaorui Guo; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Subodh Sharan Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Beatrix Haddock; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Hailey Hagins; Lydia M. Haile; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Erin B. Hamilton; Melanie S. Hammer; Chieh Han; Hannah Han; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; James D. Harvey; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Maryam Hashemian; Abdiwahab Hashi; Amr Hassan; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Delia Hendrie; Kiana Henny; Andualem Henok; Hannah J. Henrikson; Nathaniel J. Henry; Molly E. Herbert; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Thomas R. Hird; Hung Chak Ho; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Bruce Hollingsworth; Praveen Hoogar; Kathleen Pillsbury Hopf; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Kejia Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Fernando N. Hugo; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Chantal K. Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Vincent C. Iannucci; Ivo Iavicoli; Charles Ugochukwu Ibeneme; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Helen Ippolito; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M. Mofizul Islam; Md. Mohaimenul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Hussain Jafari; Morteza Jafarinia; Deepa Jahagirdar; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Farzad Jalilian; Spencer L. James; Hosna Janjani; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Javad Javidnia; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Peng Jia; Lars Johansson; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Catherine Owens Johnson; Sarah Charlotte Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Ankur Joshi; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Hamed Kalani; Rizwan Kalani; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M. Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Salah Eddin Karimi; Seyed Asaad Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Suzanne H. Keddie; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Laura Kemmer; Parkes J. Kendrick; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Salman Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Mohammad Taghi Khodayari; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Roba Khundkar; Neda Kianipour; Christian Kieling; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Cameron J. Kneib; Luke D. Knibbs; Megan Knight; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; David S.Q. Koh; Stefan Kohler; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Jacek A. Kopec; Anna V. Korotkova; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Anirudh Kotlo; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kris J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; K.S. Shaji; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Bicer Kucuk; Nuworza Kugbey; Vaman Kulkarni; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Justin J. Lang; Sinéad M. Langan; Van Charles Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi Jane Larson; Samantha Leigh Larson; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Pablo M. Lavados; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Lisiane F. Leal; Janet L. Leasher; Jorge R. Ledesma; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Andrew T. Leever; Kate E. LeGrand; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Haley Lescinsky; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sarah Lewington; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Christine Lin; Ro-Ting Lin; Christine Linehan; Shai Linn; Stefan Listl; Hung-Chun Liu; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Yang Liu; Zichen Liu; Justin Lo; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Katharine J. Looker; Alan D. Lopez; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Platon D. Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Alton Lu; Tim C.D. Lucas; Alessandra Lugo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Jianing Ma; Daiane Borges Machado; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Mohammed Madadin; Emilie R. Maddison; Ralph Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mokhtar Mahdavi Mahdavi; Morteza Mahmoudi; Hue Thi Mai; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagón-Rojas; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Amir Manafi; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Ana M. Mantilla Herrera; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Anthony Masaka; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; João Massano; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Claudia I. Mastrogiacomo; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Erin A. May; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Bahram Mohajer; Osama Mohamad; Efat Mohamadi; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Victor Aboyans; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Maryam Adabi; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Colin Angus; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Filippo Ariani; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Charlie Ashbaugh; Michael Assmus; Zahra Atafar; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Alberto Baldasseroni; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Daniela Balzi; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Lingkan Barua; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Jacob S. Becker; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Yannick Béjot; Michelle L. Bell; Fiona B. Bennitt; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Neeraj Bhala; Dinesh Bhandari; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Catherine Bisignano; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Helen Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mehdi Bohluli; Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Dana Bryazka; Blair R. Bumgarner; Katrin Burkart; Richard Thomas Burnett; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Leah E. Cahill; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Christopher R. Cederroth; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Kai-Lan Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Nicolas Cherbuin; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Classen; Aaron J. Cohen; Kelly Compton; Owen R. Cooper; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Richard G. Cowden; Di H. Cross; Jessica A. Cruz; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Anna-Karin Danielsson; Paul I. Dargan; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José das Neves; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Marissa DeLang; Robert Paul Dellavalle; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nikolaos Dervenis; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Klara Dokova; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Tim Robert Driscoll; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; David Edvardsson; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Holly E. Erskine; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Arash Etemadi; Atkilt Esaiyas Etisso; Jessica Fanzo; Mohammad Farahmand; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Mithila Faruque; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Lisa M. Force; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Marisa Freitas; Weijia Fu; Takeshi Fukumoto; João M. Furtado; Mohamed M. Gad; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Assefa Ayalew Ayalew Ayalew Gebreslassie; Abraham Geremew; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Peter W. Gething; Maryam Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Rakesh Ghosh; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Salime Goharinezhad; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C. Goulart; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Gaorui Guo; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Beatrix Haddock; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Melanie S. Hammer; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Hannah J. Henrikson; Molly E. Herbert; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Thomas R. Hird; Hans W. Hoek; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Kejia Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Chantal K. Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Vincent C. Iannucci; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Helen Ippolito; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Hussain Jafari; Morteza Jafarinia; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Spencer L. James; Hosna Janjani; Tahereh Javaheri; Javad Javidnia; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Lars Johansson; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Catherine Owens Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Hamed Kalani; Rizwan Kalani; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Laura Kemmer; Parkes J. Kendrick; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Salman Khazaei; Christian Kieling; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A. 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Mamun; Ana Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Ana M. Mantilla Herrera; Joemer C. Maravilla; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Fereshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Noushin Mohammadifard; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Hussen Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Meghan D. Mooney; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F. Mosser; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Erin C. Mullany; Kamarul Imran Musa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod C. Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Ming Nguyen; Yeshambel T. 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Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study
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Ostroff; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Utsav Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Mojtaba Parvizi; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; Rajan Paudel; Veincent Christian F. Pepito; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Norberto Perico; Hai Q. Pham; Thomas Pilgrim; Michael A. Piradov; Farhad Pishgar; Vivek Podder; Roman V. Polibin; Akram Pourshams; Dimas R.A. Pribadi; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Sudha Ramalingam; Juwel Rana; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; Lal Rawal; Wasiq F. Rawasia; Reza Rawassizadeh; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Ross L. Roberts-Thomson; Leonardo Roever; Peter Rohloff; Michele Romoli; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Seyedmohammad Saadatagah; Maha M. Saber-Ayad; Siamak Sabour; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Arash Sarveazad; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Maria I. Schmidt; Aletta E. Schutte; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Izza Shahid; Masood A. Shaikh; Mahdi Shamali; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Min-Jeong Shin; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shiue; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Diego A.S. Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Y. Skryabin; Anna A. Skryabina; Amin Soheili; Emma E. Spurlock; Leo Stockfelt; Stefan Stortecky; Saverio Stranges; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Hooman Tadbiri; Eyayou G. Tadesse; Degena B. Tadesse; Masih Tajdini; Md Tariqujjaman; Berhane F. Teklehaimanot; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Ayenew K. Tesema; Bhaskar Thakur; Kavumpurathu R. Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Amanda G. Thrift; Binod Timalsina; Marcello Tonelli; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos R. Tovani-Palone; Avnish Tripathi; Jaya P. Tripathy; Thomas C. Truelsen; Guesh M. Tsegay; Gebiyaw W. Tsegaye; Nikolaos Tsilimparis; Biruk S. Tusa; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Muhammad S. Usman; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi J. Vasankari; Diana Z. Velazquez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Giang T. Vu; Isidora S. Vujcic; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Fang Wang; Jingkai Wei; Robert G. Weintraub; Abrha H. Weldemariam; Ronny Westerman; Andrea S. Winkler; Charles S. Wiysonge; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet; Gelin Xu; Ali Yadollahpour; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lijing L. Yan; Srikanth Yandrapalli; Yuichiro Yano; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Tomas Y. Yeheyis; Yigizie Yeshaw; Christopher S. Yilgwan; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Geevar Zachariah; Sojib Bin Zaman; Muhammed S. Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Ramin Zand; Alireza Zandifar; Afshin Zarghi; Mikhail S. Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Wangjian Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Zhiyong Zou; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Christopher J.L. Murray; Valentin Fuster
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases. © 2020 The Authors
Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Sara Momtazmanesh; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Negar Rezaei; Parnian Shobeiri; Amirali Aali; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Meriem Abdoun; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Zahra Abrehdari-Tafreshi; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Denberu Eshetie Adane Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Astawus Alemayehu; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Javad Aminian Dehkordi; Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Catherine M Antony; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Judie Arulappan; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Engi F Attia; Meshesha Tsegazeab Ayele; Sina Azadnajafabad; Abraham Samuel Babu; Sara Bagherieh; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; MacIej Banach; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Saurav Basu; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Isabela M Bensenor; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Souad Bouaoud; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Zahid A Butt; Daniela Calina; Luis Alberto Cámera; Gashaw Sisay Chanie; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aaron J Cohen; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Sisay Abebe Debela; Laura Delgado-Ortiz; Diriba Dereje; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Gebisa Dirirsa; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Abdel Douiri; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Ahmed Elabbas Mustafa Elagali; Muhammed Elhadi; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Andre Faro; Ali Fatehizadeh; Ginenus Fekadu; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Peter Andras Gaal; Santosh Gaihre; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Urge Gerema; Motuma Erena Getachew; Tamiru Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanbari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholami; Artyom Urievich Gil; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mostafa Hadei; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Mehdi Harorani; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Hamidreza Hasani; Abdiwahab Hashi; Simon I Hay; Mohammad Heidari; Merel E Hellemons; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Hoseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Sufyan Ibrahim; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Linda Merin J; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Olatunji Johnson; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Vaishali Kraghuabr; Billingsley Kaambwa; Zubair Kabir; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Himal Kandel; Shama D Karanth; Ibraheem M Karaye; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Gizat M Kassie; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Imteyaz A Khan; Moien A B Khan; Yusra H Khan; Haneen Khreis; Min Seo Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Luke D Knibbs; Pavel Kolkhir; Somayeh Komaki; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Ali Koolivand; Oleksii Korzh; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Kris J Krohn; Naveen Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Carlo La Vecchia; Judit Lám; Qing Lan; Savita Lasrado; Kamaluddin Latief; Paolo Lauriola; Sang-Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Samson Mideksa Legesse; Jacopo Lenzi; Ming-Chieh Li; Ro-Ting Lin; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Chun-Han Lo; László Lorenzovici; Yifei Lu; Soundarya Mahalingam; Elham Mahmoudi; Narayan B Mahotra; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Elezebeth Mathews; Sazan Qadir Maulud; Enkeleint A Mechili; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G Menezes; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Mahboobeh Meshkat; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Prasanna Mithra; Javad Moghadasi; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Marita Mohammadshahi; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Nagabhishek Moka; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Md Moniruzzaman; Fateme Montazeri; Maryam Moradi; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Christopher J L Murray; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Zuhair S Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Wogene Wogene Negash; Evangelia Nena; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira De Sá; Ali Nowroozi; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Rahman Md Obaidur; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Sergej M Ostojic; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy; Tamás Palicz; Adrian Pana; Eun-Kee Park; Jay Patel; Rajan Paudel; Uttam Paudel; Paolo Pedersini; Marcos Pereira; Renato B Pereira; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Majid Pirestani; Maarten J Postma; Akila Prashant; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Sima Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Prashant Rajput; Juwel Rana; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Sina Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Maryam Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Mónica Rodrigues; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; David Rojas-Rueda; Kristina E Rudd; Aly M A Saad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Sateesh Sakhamuri; Sana Salehi; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Shashank Shekhar; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Colin R Simpson; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Ireneous N Soyiri; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Leo Stockfelt; Jing Sun; Ken Takahashi; Iman M Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Birhan Tsegaw Taye; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Rekha Thapar; Friedrich Thienemann; Amir Tiyuri; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Sana Ullah; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Rohollah Valizadeh; Job F M Van Boven; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Siavash Vaziri; Francesco S Violante; Bay Vo; Ning Wang; Melissa Y Wei; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Suowen Xu; Xiaoyue Xu; Lalit Yadav; Yazachew Yismaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Moein Zangiabadian; Zahra Zareshahrabadi; Armin Zarrintan; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zelalem Banjaw Zegeye; Yunquan Zhang; Mohsen Naghavi; Bagher Larijani; Farshad Farzadfar
Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Authors
Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: Results from the global burden of disease study 2017
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020) Spencer L. James; Chris D. Castle; Zachary V. Dingels; Jack T. Fox; Erin B. Hamilton; Zichen Liu; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Dillon O. Sylte; Nathaniel J. Henry; Kate E. LeGrand; Ahmed Abdelalim; Amir Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Aidin Abedi; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Tauseef Ahmad; Rushdia Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Fares Alahdab; Genet Melak Alamene; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Animut Alebel; Niguse Meles Alema; Suliman A. Alghnam; Samar Al-Hajj; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Saqib Ali; Mahtab Alikhani; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Khalid Altirkawi; Yasser Sami Abdeldayem Amer; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever Loreche Amit; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Amit Arora; Malke Asaad; Babak Asghari; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Eleni Bagli; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Ahad Bakhtiari; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Amrit Banstola; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Akbar Barzegar; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Habte Belete; Corina Benjet; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Soufiane Boufous; Alexandra Brazinova; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Joht S. Chandan; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Irini Chatziralli; Neha Chaudhary; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Samantha M. Colquhoun; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Vera M. Costa; Giovanni Damiani; Ahmad Daryani; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Afshin Derakhshani; Kebede Deribe; Rupak Desai; Mostafa Dianati Nasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko Adema; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Aziz Eftekhari; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Daniel Adane Endalew; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Yousef Fatahi; Wubalem Fekadu; Tomas Y. Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Berhe Gebremichael; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Birhanu Geta; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Asadollah Gholamian; Tiffany K. Gill; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Michal Grivna; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Gaurav Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Brian James Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Josep Maria Haro; Md Mehedi Hasan; Amir Hasanzadeh; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Khezar Hayat; Delia Hendrie; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Martha Híjar; Hung Chak Ho; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Endang Indriasih; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; M. Mofizul Islam; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Sudha Jayaraman; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Teshome Abegaz Kamil; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Manoochehr Karami; Amir Kasaeian; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye; Taras Kavetskyy; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Bayew Kelkay; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Tripti Khanna; Habibolah Khazaie; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Roba Khundkar; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Young-Eun Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Hamidreza Komaki; Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; Vivek Kumar; Nithin Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Om P. Kurmi; Oluwatosin Kuti; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Dennis Odai Laryea; Savita Lasrado; Arman Latifi; Paolo Lauriola; Janet L. Leasher; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Xuefeng Liu; Alan D. Lopez; Paulo A. Lotufo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Mohammed Madadin; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagon-Rojas; Venkatesh Maled; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Navid Manafi; Amir Manafi; Ana-Laura Manda; Narayana Manjunatha; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Lyn M. March; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Addisu Melese; Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik; Peter T.N. Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Masoud Moradi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Farhad Moradpour; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Naho Morisaki; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Srinivas Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod Nayak; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Peter S. Nyasulu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Heather M. Orpana; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Kebreab Paulos; Amy E. Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Jeevan Pereira; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Roman V. Polibin; Suzanne Polinder; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Parul Puri; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Siavash Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Kavitha Ranganathan; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Anas M. Saad; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Saeed Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Hamid Safarpour; Mahdi Safdarian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Payman Salamati; Farkhonde Salehi; Saleh Salehi Zahabi; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Omar Salman; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Susan M. Sawyer; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Feng Sha; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Hamid Sharifi; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Pankaj Kumar Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Catalin-Gabriel Smarandache; Emma U.R. Smith; Amin Soheili; Bija Soleymani; Ali Reza Soltanian; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Dan J. Stein; Mark A. Stokes; Babale Sufiyan Mu'awiyyah; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu; Ayenew Kassie Tesema; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Asres Bedaso Tilahune; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Roman Topor-Madry; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Alexander C. Tsai; Lorainne Tudor Car; Saif Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Maida Umar; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Olalekan A. Uthman; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Yasir Waheed; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Andrea Werdecker; Taweewat Wiangkham; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Habte Woldeyes; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Ai-Min Wu; Rajaram Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Yoosik Youm; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Yong Yu; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Ahmad Zarei; Fatemeh Zare; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Louisa Degenhardt; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Simon I. Hay; Ali H. Mokdad; Robert C. Reiner; Benn Sartorius; Theo Vos
Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global mortality from dementia: Application of a newmethod and results from the global burden of disease study 2019
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2021) Emma Nichols; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Vahid Alipour; Iman Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Amir Ashraf-Ganjouei; Abolfazl Avan; Getinet Ayano; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Bernhard T. Baune; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Tsegaye Adane Birhan; Atanu Biswas; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Carol Brayne; Hermann Brenner; Katrin Burkart; Richard A. Burns; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Felix Carvalho; Luis F. S. Castro-De-araujo; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Achille Cernigliaro; Nicolas Cherbuin; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B. Duncan; David Edvardsson; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Valery L. Feigin; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Shilpa Gaidhane; Kidane Zereabruk Gebregzabiher; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Asadollah Gholamian; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Rajeev Gupta; Vladimir Hachinski; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Josep Maria Haro; Amr Hassan; Simon I. Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Ravi Prakash Jha; Rizwan Kalani; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Andre Pascal Kengne; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Hamidreza Komaki; Aikoyanagi; Walter A. Kukull; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Iván Landires; Matilde Leonardi; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Clement T. Loy; Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin; Navid Manafi; Narayana Manjunatha; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Alexander Merkin; Workua Mekonnen Metekiya; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Bahram Mohajer; Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim; Yousef Mohammad; Archisman Mohapatra; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Stefania Mondello; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Anwar Mulugeta; Gabriele Nagel; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Son Hoang Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Hans Orru; Sergej M. Ostojic; Samuel M. Ostroff; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mona Pathak; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Carrie B. Peterson; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Michael A. Piradov; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Sergio I. Prada; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Vahid Rashedi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Nickolas Reinig; Nima Rezaei; Stephen R Robinson; Michele Romoli; Perminder S. Sachdev; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Davide Sattin; Mete Saylan; Mehdi Sayyah; Silvia Schiavolin; Maria Inês Schmidt; Izza Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; João Pedro Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Amin Soheili; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Cassandra E. I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Bhaskar Thakur; Akhil Soman Thekke Purakkal; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara S. Travillian; Manjari Tripathi; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Marco Vacante; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Simone Vidale; Vasily Vlassov; Yuan-Pang Wang; Jingkai Wei; Jordan Weiss; Abrha Hailay Weldemariam; Anders Wimo; Chenkai Wu; Ali Yadollahpour; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Naohiro Yonemoto; Siddhesh Zadey; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Christopher J. L. Murray; Theo Vos
Introduction: Dementia is currently one of the leading causes of mortality globally, and mortality due to dementia will likely increase in the future along with corresponding increases in population growth and population aging. However, large inconsistencies in coding practices in vital registration systems over time and between countries complicate the estimation of global dementia mortality. Methods: We meta-analyzed the excess risk of death in those with dementia and multiplied these estimates by the proportion of dementia deaths occurring in those with severe, end-stage disease to calculate the total number of deaths that could be attributed to dementia. Results: We estimated that there were 1.62 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.41-4.21) deaths globally due to dementia in 2019. More dementia deaths occurred in women (1.06 million [0.27-2.71]) than men (0.56 million [0.14-1.51]), largely but not entirely due to the higher life expectancy in women (age-standardized female-tomale ratio 1.19 [1.10-1.26]). Due to population aging, there was a large increase in allage mortality rates from dementia between 1990 and 2019 (100.1% [89.1-117.5]). In 2019, deaths due to dementia ranked seventh globally in all ages and fourth among individuals 70 and older compared to deaths from other diseases estimated in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Discussion: Mortality due to dementia represents a substantial global burden, and is expected to continue to grow into the future as an older, aging population expands globally. © 2021 The Authors.
Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Rajesh Sharma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abidi; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Sangeet Adhikari; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Amir Anoushiravani; Ali Arash Anoushirvani; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Jalal Arabloo; Armin Aryannejad; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ashish D. Badiye; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Maciej Banach; Amadou Barrow; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Sima Besharat; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Tone Bjørge; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Daniela Calina; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Raja Chandra Chakinala; William C.S. Cho; Dinh-Toi Chu; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anna Danielewicz; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Saeid Doaei; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Debela Debela Ejeta; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Muhammed Elhadi; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Tahir Eyayu; Rana Ezzeddini; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Umar Farooque; Hossein Farrokhpour; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Hamed Fattahi; Nima Fattahi; Masood Fereidoonnezhad; Eduarda Fernandes; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Tamiru Getachew; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Giuseppe Gorini; Avirup Guha; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Shafiul Haque; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Farhad Islami; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Neeti Kapoor; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Amirali Karimi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Asma Kazemi; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Javad Khanali; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mahmoud Khodadost; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Ai Koyanagi; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Manoj Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Elvynna Leong; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Azeem Majeed; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Miquel Martorell; Sahar Masoudi; Prashant Mathur; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Saeed Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Zeinab Mokhtari; Mariam Molokhia; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Hae Sung Nam; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ehsan Nazemalhosseini-Mojarad; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Nurulamin M. Noor; Maryam Noori; Seyyed Mohammad Ali Noori; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Sokking Ong; Samuel M. Ostroff; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Reza Pakzad; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Renato B. Pereira; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Richard G. Pestell; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Akram Pourshams; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Sima Rafiei; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Vajiheh Ramezani-Doroh; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Sina Rashedi; Amirfarzan Rashidi; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Mandana Rastegar; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Gholamreza Roshandel; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Bahar Saberzadeh-Ardestani; Basema Saddik; Hossein Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Amir Salek Farrokhi; Amir Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Pouria Samadi; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Šekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Sayed Mohammad Shafiee; Zahra Shaghaghi; Saeed Shahabi; Elaheh Shaker; Maedeh Sharifian; Javad Sharifi-Rad; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Reza Shirkoohi; Parnian Shobeiri; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Guilherme Silva Julian; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Gholam Reza Sivandzadeh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Elnaz Tabibian; Majid Taheri; Yasaman Taheri Abkenar; Amir Taherkhani; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Bekele Tesfaye; Amir Tiyuri; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Mathilde Touvier; Bach Xuan Tran; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Massimiliano Veroux; Bay Vo; Theo Vos; Cong Wang; Ronny Westerman; Melat Woldemariam; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Mazyar Zahir; Iman Zare; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Mohammad Zoladi
Background: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990–2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408–868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00–2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682–537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02–1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3–23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6–28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5–14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6–14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7–320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2–313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9–80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5–73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8–71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0–37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6–34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6–34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation: The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Brittney S. Sheena; Lindsey Hiebert; Hannah Han; Helen Ippolito; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Amir Abdoli; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Mesafint Molla Adane; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bahman Ahadinezhad; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Muhammad Ashar Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Haya Altawalah; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Amir Anoushiravani; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Tahira Ashraf; Daniel Atlaw; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Sayna Bagheri; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Nastaran Barati; Amadou Barrow; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Shu Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Benjamin C. Cowie; Garland T. Culbreth; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Mohammed Gebre Dedefo; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Takele Gezahegn G. Demie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Meseret Derbew Molla; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mojtaba Didehdar; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Thomas M. Drake; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Hossein Farrokhpour; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Shilpa Gaidhane; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Kazem Ghaffari; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholami; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Aima Gilani; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Giuseppe Gorini; Yitayal Ayalew Goshu; Max G. Griswold; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Rabih Halwani; Saeed S. Hamid; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R. Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K. Tesfaye Kanko; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Junaid Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Amir M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Mahmoud Khodadost; Abdullah T. Khoja; Omid Khosravizadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; G. Anil Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Jiarui Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Platon D. Lopukhov; Joana A. Loureiro; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C. Matthews; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Ashraf Mohamadkhani; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Jalal Moludi; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maliheh Moradzadeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Sumaira Mubarik; Malaisamy Muniyandi; Christopher J.L. Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Che Henry Ngwa; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Alireza Rafiei; Sima Rafiei; Pavan Manibettu Raghuram; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Negar Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Chethan Sampath; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mohammed Shannawaz; Suchitra M. Shenoy; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amir Ali Sohrabpour; Suhang Song; Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Majid Taheri; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; Ahmad Tavakoli; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Belay Negash Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Habtamu Molla Tesfaw; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Maria Elena Tosti; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Indang Trihandini; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Adisu Birhanu Weldesenbet; Melat Woldemariam; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Mehdi Yaseri; Yigizie Yeshaw; Vahit Yiǧit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Leila Zaki; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Theo Vos; John W. Ward; M. Ashworth Dirac
Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
(Elsevier Ltd, 2018) Joseph Raymond Zunt; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Natacha Blake; Linda Glennie; Claire Wright; Emma Nichols; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Abdu A Adamu; Mina G Adib; Alireza Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Nadia Akseer; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Mohammad A AlMazora; Khalid; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Rana Jawad Asghar; Euripide F G A Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Hamid Badali; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Quique Bassat; Neeraj Bedi; Abate Bekele Belachew; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Zahid A Butt; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J Choi; Devasahayam J Christopher; Anh Kim Dang; Ahmad Daryani; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Hamed Fakhim; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Takeshi Fukumoto; Morsaleh Ganji; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Afewerki Gebremeskel; Bradford D Gessner; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Simon I Hay; Andualem Henok; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Ravi Prakash Jha; Mikk Jürisson; Amaha Kahsay; Manoochehr Karami; André Karch; Amir Kasaeian; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Adane Teshome Kefale; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Jagdish Khubchandani; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Faris Hasan Lami; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Clement T Loy; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Colm McAlinden; Varshil Mehta; Addisu Melese; Ziad A Memish; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Branko Milosevic; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Paula Moraga; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Srinivas Murthy; Ghulam Mustafa; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Gurudatta Naik; Charles Richard James Newton; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R Nixon; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Tinuke O Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Justin R Ortiz; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Shanti Patel; Gabriel D Pinilla-Monsalve; Maarten J Postma; Mostafa Qorbani; Alireza Rafiei; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Robert C Reiner; Andre M N Renzaho; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Kedir Teji Roba; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Hosein Safari; Saeed Safari; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric Milicevic; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehdi Sharif; Mika Shigematsu; Si Si; Eirini Skiadaresi; Mari Smith; Ranjani Somayaji; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Nega Yimer Tawye; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Isidora S Vujcic; Fasil Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Alison B Wiyeh; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Grant M A Wyper; Ebrahim M Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Zoubida Zaidi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Valery L Feigin; Theo Vos; Christopher J L Murray
Background: Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings: Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21·0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426–458 514) to 318 400 (265 218–408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2·50 million (95% UI 2·19–2·91) in 1990 to 2·82 million (2·46–3·31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585–978 219) globally, but decreased the most (–49·1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076–533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358–221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682–178 022]) and incident cases (1·25 million [1·06–1·49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787–839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1·48 million (1·04—1·96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21·87 million (18·20—28·28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation: Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccine-preventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license