Browsing by Author "Laxmi N. Thakural"

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Regional climate driven streamflow changes and sustainable water governance in the Bina River Basin, Madhya Pradesh, India
(Elsevier Ltd, 2025) Dheeraj Sonkar; Ramesh Mandir Singh; Laxmi N. Thakural; Aradhana Thakur; Akanksha Maravi; Pradeep Kumar
This study evaluates the projected impacts of climate change on streamflow patterns in the Bina River Basin (BRB), a crucial water reserve in the drought-prone Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India. Using a General Circulation Model (GCM) multi-model ensemble for intermediate Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP-4.5) and high-emission (RCP-8.5) scenarios, this study assesses daily streamflow from 2008 to 2099 simulated with the SWAT Hydrological model. Uncertainty analysis revealed moderate parameter sensitivity, with P-factor and R-factor values of 0.44/0.52 (calibration) and 0.25/0.27 (validation). While the lower P-factor in validation indicates some unresolved variability typical in semi-arid, data-scarce basins, the narrow R-factor suggests that the uncertainty band is precise. Results project significant shifts in BRB hydroclimatic regime by the late 21st century. Monsoon precipitation is anticipated to intensify by 15–22 % (RCP-8.5) during August–September, exacerbating peak flows and flood risks, while pre-monsoon temperatures may rise by 2.8–4.1 °C, amplifying evaporative losses and prolonging dry-season water scarcity. Streamflow variability is expected to increase markedly, with a 30–45 % rise in extreme high-flow events and a concurrent 20–35 % reduction in baseflow contributions during summer months. These findings emphasize the importance of implementing adaptive strategies that are specifically designed to address hydroclimatic extremes. This includes optimizing reservoir operations to better manage the increased risk of flooding and promoting the use of drought-tolerant crops to enhance agricultural resilience. Furthermore, our results highlight the urgent need for climate mitigation, as the RCP 8.5 scenario predicts a significant risk of severe ecological strain. This includes increased sediment loading and degradation of riparian habitats. This research provides a foundational framework for policymakers focused on integrated water resource management in climate-sensitive semi-arid regions. © © 2025. Published by Elsevier Ltd.