Browsing by Author "Lu Zhuo"

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Appraisal of NLDAS-2 multi-model simulated soil moistures for hydrological modelling
(Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2015) Lu Zhuo; Dawei Han; Qiang Dai; Tanvir Islam; Prashant K. Srivastava
Soil moisture is a key variable in hydrological modelling, which could be estimated by land surface modelling. However the previous studies have focused on evaluating these soil moisture estimates by using point-based measurements, and there is a lack of attention for their appraisal over basin scales particularly for hydrological applications. In this study, we carry out for the first time, a detailed evaluation of five sources of soil moisture products (NLDAS-2 multi-model simulated soil moistures: Noah, VIC, Mosaic and SAC; and a ground observation), against a widely used hydrological model Xinanjiang (XAJ) as a benchmark at a U.S. basin. Generally speaking, all products have good agreements with the hydrological soil moisture simulation, with superior performance obtained from the SAC model and the VIC model. Furthermore, the results indicate that the in-situ measurements in deeper soil layer are still usable for hydrological applications. Nevertheless further improvement is still required on the definition of land surface model layer thicknesses and the related data fusion with the remotely sensed soil moisture. The potential usage of the NLDAS-2 soil moisture datasets in real-time flood forecasting is discussed. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015.
Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios
(Springer Science and Business Media B.V., 2023) Swati Maurya; Prashant K. Srivastava; Lu Zhuo; Aradhana Yaduvanshi; R.K. Mall
Climate change (precipitation and temperature) has significantly affected the hydrological regimes and future climate projection. Integration of climate model with physical based model is crucial for quantitative measurement of changes in surface water regime. For accurate estimation, modelling framework need finer scale resolution of climate model output. In this study, we examined the bias corrected, statistically downscale models drawn from the NASA, Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections–Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP5) over the study region. The rainfall and temperature projection output from the INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3 and their ensemble mean performed well over the Mahi River basin (MRB), India. In this study, the climate data integrated with the SWAT model to analyse the potential impact of climate change on the discharge of MRB. The finding indicates that in the near future (2011–2040) projection of annual average streamflow increases by 76.74% based on the INMCM-4 outputs, 25% based on the MRI-CGCM3 outputs, and 24.53% based on the ensemble mean in comparison to the baseline period (1981–2010). Further, the modelling results of mean monthly streamflow in rainy season indicated that the lowest and highest streamflow changes will be ranging from about 631.07–2718.42 m3/s as observed by INMCM-4, 491.71–2938 m3/s observed by MRI-CGCM3, 513.02–2270.18 m3/s observed by ensemble mean, in the near future. Similarly, in the summer season, the lowest level of stream flow is found to be 158.27 m3/s observed by MRI-CGCM3, 193.38 m3/s (ensemble mean) and 258.53 m3/s (INMCM-4), respectively. Additionally, the streamflow trend was assessed by Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope method at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales. The future streamflow projection represented the ascending trend observed in south west and winter monsoon, while the descending trend was observed in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon under the INMCM-4, MRI-CGCM3, and ensemble mean. Results on projected precipitation, temperature and streamflow accretion would help to develop effective adaptation measures for reducing the impacts of climate change and to work out long-term water resource management plans in the river basin. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V.
Soil erosion in future scenario using CMIP5 models and earth observation datasets
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Swati Maurya; Prashant K. Srivastava; Aradhana Yaduvanshi; Akash Anand; George P. Petropoulos; Lu Zhuo; R.K. Mall
Rainfall and land use/land cover changes are significant factors that impact the soil erosion processes. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the impact of rainfall and land use/land cover changes in the current and future scenarios to deduce the soil erosion losses using the state-of-the-art Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). In this study, we evaluated the long-term changes (period 1981–2040) in the land use/land cover and rainfall through the statistical measures and used subsequently in the soil erosion loss prediction. The future land use/land cover changes are produced using the Cellular Automata Markov Chain model (CA-Markov) simulation using multi-temporal Landsat datasets, while long term rainfall data was obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project v5 (CMIP5) and Indian Meteorological Department. In total seven CMIP5 model projections viz Ensemble mean, MRI-CGCM3, INMCM4, canESM2, MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M and GFDL-CM3 of rainfall were used. The future projections (2011–2040) of soil erosion losses were then made after calibrating the soil erosion model on the historic datasets. The applicability of the proposed method has been tested over the Mahi River Basin (MRB), a region of key environmental significance in India. The finding showed that the rainfall-runoff erosivity gradually decreases from 475.18 MJ mm/h/y (1981–1990) to 425.72 MJ mm/h/y (1991–2000). A value of 428.53 MJ mm/h/y was obtained in 2001–2010, while a significantly high values 661.47 MJ mm/h/y has been reported for the 2011–2040 in the ensemble model mean output of CMIP5. The combined results of rainfall and land use/land cover changes reveal that the soil erosion loss occurred during 1981–1990 was 55.23 t/ha/y (1981–1990), which is gradually increased to 56.78 t/ha/y in 1991–2000 and 57.35 t/ha/y in 2000–2010. The projected results showed that it would increase to 71.46 t/h/y in 2011–2040. The outcome of this study can be used to provide reasonable assistance in identifying suitable conservation practices in the MRB. © 2020