Browsing by Author "Marissa B. Reitsma"

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Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2019) Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Ashkan Afshin; Emmanuela Gakidou; Stephen S. Lim; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Akilew Awoke Adane; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Gina Agarwal; Anju Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Komal Ali; Syed Mustafa Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Josep M. Antó; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Zerihun Ataro; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B. Ayuk; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Eyasu Tamru Bekru; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Gilles Bergeron; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Tone Bjørge; Brigette F. Blacker; Archie Bleyer; Rohan Borschmann; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Richard T. Burnett; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Leah E. Cahill; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kate Causey; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Kai-Lan Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Miao Li Chee; Ching-Yu Cheng; Adrienne Chew; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ken Lee Chin; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Owen R. Cooper; Josef Coresh; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; David K. Cundiff; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Sarah C. Darby; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Aniruddha Deshpande; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Gabrielle Aline Deveber; Subhojit Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Helen Derara Diro; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Natalie Ebert; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Batool Fatima; Kairsten A. Fay; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Irina Filip; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Seana Gall; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Rakesh Ghosh; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; William W. Godwin; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Morgan E. Grams; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Daniela S. Gutiérrez-Torres; Juanita A. Haagsma; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Tarig B. Higazi; Esayas Haregot Hilawe; Hans W. Hoek; Howard J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; Howard Hu; John J. Huang; Mamusha Aman Hussen; Chantal K. Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Nayu Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Maria D. Jackson; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Surya Kant; Chittaranjan Kar; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Gulfaraz Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Mohammad Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carl Lachat; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Faris Hasan Lami; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Samantha Leigh Larson; Arman Latifi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Yu Liao; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Tim C.D. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Ísis Eloah Machado; Fabiana Madotto; Hue Thi Mai; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C.O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Melvin B. Marzan; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Toni Meier; Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen; Yohannes A. Melaku; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Gert B.M. Mensink; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. 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Smith; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Ranjani Somayaji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Angela Spinelli; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Nadine Steckling; Dan J. Stein; Murray B. Stein; Goran Stevanovic; Leo Stockfelt; Mark A. Stokes; Lela Sturua; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick John Sur; Bryan L. Sykes; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Habtamu Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Belay Tessema; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Andrew Theis; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Hannah J. 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Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study
(Elsevier Inc., 2020) Gregory A. Roth; George A. Mensah; Catherine O. Johnson; Giovanni Addolorato; Enrico Ammirati; Larry M. Baddour; Noel C. Barengo; Andrea Beaton; Emelia J. Benjamin; Catherine P. Benziger; Aime Bonny; Michael Brauer; Marianne Brodmann; Thomas J. Cahill; Jonathan R. Carapetis; Alberico L. Catapano; Sumeet Chugh; Leslie T. Cooper; Josef Coresh; Michael H. Criqui; Nicole K. DeCleene; Kim A. Eagle; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Valery L. Feigin; Joaquim Fernández-Sola; F. Gerry R. Fowkes; Emmanuela Gakidou; Scott M. Grundy; Feng J. He; George Howard; Frank Hu; Lesley Inker; Ganesan Karthikeyan; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Walter J. Koroshetz; Carl Lavie; Donald Lloyd-Jones; Hong S. Lu; Antonio Mirijello; Awoke T. Misganaw; Ali H. Mokdad; Andrew E. Moran; Paul Muntner; Jagat Narula; Bruce Neal; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Gláucia M.M. Oliveira; Catherine M. Otto; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Michael Pratt; Sanjay Rajagopalan; Marissa B. Reitsma; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Nancy A. Rigotti; Anthony Rodgers; Craig A. Sable; Saate S. Shakil; Karen Sliwa; Benjamin A. Stark; Johan Sundström; Patrick Timpel; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Marco Valgimigli; Theo Vos; Paul K. Whelton; Magdi Yacoub; Liesl J. Zuhlke; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Alireza Abdi; Aidin Abedi; Victor Aboyans; Woldu A. Abrha; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Dilaram Acharya; Tim Adair; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Zanfina Ademi; Shailesh M. Advani; Khashayar Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar B. Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom J. Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Khalid F. Alhabib; Sheikh M. Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed M. Aljunid; François Alla; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Adeladza K. Amegah; Saeed Amini; Arya Aminorroaya; Hubert Amu; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Zelalem A. Anteneh; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Razique Anwer; Lambert T. Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Johan Ärnlöv; Kurnia D. Artanti; Zerihun Ataro; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Asma T. Awan; Mamaru A. Awoke; Henok T. Ayele; Muluken A. Ayza; Samad Azari; B.B. Darshan; Nafiseh Baheiraei; Atif A. Baig; Ahad Bakhtiari; Maciej Banach; Palash C. Banik; Emerson A. Baptista; Miguel A. Barboza; Lingkan Barua; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Yannick Béjot; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Yihienew M. Bezabih; Akshaya S. Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Mulugeta M. Birhanu; Archith Boloor; Luisa C. Brant; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay I. Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Leah E. Cahill; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis A. Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Josip Car; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. 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Faris; Medhat Farwati; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Carlota Fernandez Prendes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Morsaleh Ganji; Jalaj Garg; Abadi K. Gebre; Birhan G. Gebregiorgis; Kidane Z. Gebregzabiher; Gebreamlak G. Gebremeskel; Lemma Getacher; Abera Getachew Obsa; Alireza Ghajar; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit S. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ekaterina V. Glushkova; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Kebebe B. Gonfa; Amir Hossein Goudarzian; Alessandra C. Goulart; Jenny S. Guadamuz; Avirup Guha; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Teklehaimanot G. Haile; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Arief Hargono; Risky K. Hartono; Maryam Hashemian; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Hamid Y. Hassen; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Ivo Iavicoli; Charles U. Ibeneme; Segun E. Ibitoye; Olayinka S. Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina N. Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Vardhmaan Jain; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi P. Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek J. Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Tanvir Kahlon; Rizwan Kalani; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Ibrahim Kamel; Himal Kandel; Amit Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Yousef S. Khader; Mohammad Khammarnia; Muhammad S. Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Ejaz A. Khan; Khaled Khatab; Gulam M.A. Kibria; Yun Jin Kim; Gyu Ri Kim; Ruth W. 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Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases. © 2020 The Authors
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. 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Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. 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Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Valery L. Feigin; Benjamin A. Stark; Catherine Owens Johnson; Gregory A. Roth; Catherine Bisignano; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Foad Abd-Allah; Vida Abedi; Ahmed Abualhasan; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Budi Aji; Samaneh Akbarpour; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Rustam Al-Shahi Salman; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Adnan Ansar; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Jalal Arabloo; Johan Ärnlöv; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Zahra Aryan; Samaneh Asgari; Tahira Ashraf; Mohammad Athar; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atif Amin Baig; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; MacIej Banach; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone; Sanjay Basu; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Ettore Beghi; Mahya Beheshti; Yannick Béjot; Arielle Wilder Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Mulugeta M. Birhanu; Archith Boloor; Aime Bonny; Michael Brauer; Hermann Brenner; Dana Bryazka; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Juan J. Carrero; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Alberico L. Catapano; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; David Colozza; Vera Marisa Costa; Simona Costanzo; Michael H. Criqui; Omid Dadras; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Koustuv Dalal; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Vanessa De La Cruz-Góngora; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Martin Dichgans; Klara Dokova; Rajkumar Doshi; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B. Duncan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Michael Ekholuenetale; Nevine El Nahas; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Umar Farooque; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Mohamed M. Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Ghozali Ghozali; Sherief Ghozy; Alessandro Gialluisi; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Alessandra C. Goulart; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Pradip Gyanwali; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Treska S. Hassan; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sung-In Jang; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Walter D. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Rizwan Kalani; Rohollah Kalhor; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Pedram Keshavarz; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Dhaval Kolte; Ali Koolivand; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Rita V. Krishnamurthi; G. Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Pablo M. Lavados; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Ro-Ting Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Warren David Lo; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Giampiero Mazzaglia; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Yaser Mokhayeri; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Lidia Morawska; Jakub Morze; Walter Muruet; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Hans Orru; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Tarang Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Truong-Minh Pham; Michael A. Piradov; Vivek Podder; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Michele Romoli; Andrzej Rynkiewicz; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Rehab Salah; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Silvia Schiavolin; Markus P. Schlaich; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Md. Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Kenji Shibuya; Soraya Siabani; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Stefan Stortecky; Saverio Stranges; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Yvonne Teuschl; Amanda G. Thrift; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Alireza Vakilian; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Dominique Vervoort; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Kia Vosoughi; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Hatem A. Wafa; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Tissa Wijeratne; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Mark Woodward; Jason H. Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Xiaoyue Xu; Lalit Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Ramin Zand; Alireza Zandifar; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Avina Vongpradith; Emilie R. Maddison; Amanda Novotney; Molly H. Biehl; Kate E. Legrand; Jennifer M. Ross; Deepa Jahagirdar; Dana Bryazka; Rachel Feldman; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Jason A. Anderson; Sofa Androudi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Asrat Arja; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Gulrez Shah Azhar; B.B. Darshan; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Archith Boloor; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Mareli M. Claassens; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Linh Phuong Doan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Muhammed Elhadi; Amir Emami; Shymaa Enany; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Tahvi D. Frank; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Christian Garcia-Calavaro; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Amador Goodridge; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shaful Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Vardhmaan Jain; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Zubair Kabir; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Parkes J. Kendrick; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Khaled Khatab; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Avinash Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Daiane Borges Machado; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Deepak Madi; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Saurabh Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Nour Mheidly Mheidly; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafu Mohammed; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E. Moore; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Sanjeev Nair; Suma Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Eyal Oren; P.A. Mahesh; Ramakrishnan Parthasarathi; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Rajan Paudel; Pintu Paul; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; Majid Pirestani; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Gholamreza Roshandel; Denis O. Roshchin; Siamak Sabour; K.M. Saif-Ur-rahman; Nasir Salam; Hossein Samadi Kafl; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Satish Saroshe; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Susan M. Sawyer; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharaf; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; João Pedro Silva; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Bach Xuan Tran; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K. Walters; Joanna L. Whisnant; Mesfn Agachew Woldekidan; Befkadu Legesse Wubishet; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Ali H. Mokdad; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Stephen S. Lim; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Nancy Fullman; Jamal Yearwood; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Daisy M.X. Abreu; Laith J. Abu-Raddad; Akilew Awoke Adane; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Olatunji Adetokunboh; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Dominic Agius; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi F. Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Faris Hasan Al Lami; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Mohammed I. Albittar; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Syed Danish Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Syed M. Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine Allen; Mahmoud A. Alomari; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Kebede Amenu; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Valdelaine E.M. Araújo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna Kumar Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Rana Jawad Asghar; Mengistu Mitiku Ashebir; Netsanet Abera Asseffa; Tesfay Mehari Atey; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu S. Atteraya; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Animut Alebel Ayalew; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe Betrand Ayuk; Peter Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Maciej Banach; Amitava Banerjee; Amrit Banstola; Ryan M. Barber; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne L. Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; James R. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Derbew Fikadu Berhe; Eduardo Bernabé; Robert Steven Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Ashish Bhalla; Paurvi Bhatt; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Charles Birungi; Stan Biryukov; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Ian W. Bolliger; Kaylin Bolt; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver Jerome Brady; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach S. Brugha; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano; Josip Car; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan Jesus Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly Cercy; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Jee-Young J. Choi; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Danny Colombara; Sara Conti; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Alexandre Costa Pereira; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Maryam Daryani; Jai Das; Siddharth Kumar Das; José Das Neves; Nicole Davis Weaver; Kairat Davletov; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don C. Des Jarlais; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Shirin Djalalinia; David Teye Doku; Kate Dolan; E. Ray Dorsey; Kadine Priscila Bender Dos Santos; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bruce Bartholow Duncan; Michelle Echko; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Joshua R. Ehrlich; Erika Eldrenkamp; Ziad El-Khatib; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Tamer Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; André Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Adesegun Fatusi; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; João C. Fernandes; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Abraham D. Flaxman; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Joseph J. Frostad; Thomas Fürst; Neal D. Futran; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Demeke Geremew; Peter W. Gething; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Maurice Giroud; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Giorgia Giussani; William W. Godwin; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Yevgeniy Goryakin; Alessandra Carvalho Goulart; Ayman Grada; Max Griswold; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Heather C. Harewood; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Jiawei He; Stephen J.C. Hearps; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Nathaniel J. Henry; Victor Hugo Herrera Ballesteros; Claudiu Herteliu; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Molla Kahssay Hiluf; Hans W. Hoek; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Mostafa Hosseini; Seyed Reza Hosseini; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Aung Soe Htet; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Fachmi Idris; Ehimario Uche Igumbor; Chad Ikeda; Bogdan Vasile Ileanu; Olayinka S. Ilesanmi; Kaire Innos; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb M.S. Irvine; Farhad Islami; Troy A. Jacobs; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Rajesh Jain; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo M. Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Amr A. Jamal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Jacek Józwiak; Oommen John; Sarah Charlotte Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Vasna Joshua; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Chittaranjan Kar; Marina Karanikolos; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn Haile Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Konstantin Kazanjan; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Maia Kereselidze; Ezra Belay Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Mukti Nath Khanal; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Getiye Dejenu Kibret; Daniel Ngari Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe H. Kyu; Deepesh Pravinkumar Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Qing Lan; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Anders Larsson; Arman Latifi; Jeffrey Victor Lazarus; Janet L. Leasher; Paul H. Lee; Yirga Legesse; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Samson Leta; Janni Leung; Ricky Leung; Miriam Levi; Yongmei Li; Juan Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Margaret Lind; Shai Linn; Stefan Listl; Patrick Y. Liu; Shiwei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Alan D. Lopez; Scott A. Lorch; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Timothy C.D. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Grégoire Lurton; Ronan A. Lyons; Fadi Maalouf; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Rajesh Malhotra; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Helena Manguerra; Treh Manhertz; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo G. Mantovani; Tsegahun Manyazewal; Chabila C. Mapoma; Christopher Margono; Jose Martinez-Raga; Sheila Cristina Ouriques Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried März; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Suresh Mehata; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Toni Meier; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Mulugeta Melku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Degu Abate Mengiste; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Bereket Gebremichael Menota; George A. Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Tomasz Miazgowski; Renata Micha; Robert Milam; Anoushka Millear; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Shawn Minnig; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Fitsum Weldegebreal Mlashu; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Ebrahim Mohammed; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Glen Liddell D. Mola; Mariam Molokhia; Fatemeh Momeniha; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Rintaro Mori; Shane D. Morrison; Mark Moses; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Ulrich O. Mueller; Manoj Murhekar; Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana Murthy; Srinivas Murthy; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Chie Nagata; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Gurudatta A. Naik; Nitish Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Njingang Nansseu; K.M. Venkat Narayan; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Charles R. Newton; Josephine Wanjiku Ngunjiri; Grant Nguyen; Long Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Ellen Nolte; Vuong Minh Nong; Ole F. Norheim; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques N. Noubiap; Alypio Nyandwi; Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew Toyin Olagunju; Tinuke Oluwasefunmi Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Patricia Pereira Vasconcelos De Oliveira; Helen E. Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin Ong; John Nelson Opio; Eyal Oren; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Raziye Ozdemir; Mahesh Pa; Amanda W. Pain; Marcos Roberto Tovani Palone; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj D. Pandian; Eun-Kee Park; Hadi Parsian; Tejas Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; Snehal T. Patil; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Deepak Paudel; Marcel De Moares Pedroso; Sandra P. Pedroza; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Hannah Peterson; Max Petzold; Niloofar Peykari; Michael Robert Phillips; Frédéric B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Michael A. Piradov; Suzanne Polinder; Constance D. Pond; Maarten J. Postma; Farshad Pourmalek; Swayam Prakash; V. Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Noela Marie Prasad; Caroline Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Knewjen Quintana; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sree Bhushan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M. Rana; Zane Rankin; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Sarah E. Ray; Christian Aspacia Razo-García; Priscilla Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Cesar Reis; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Antonio L. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios Blancas; Juan A. Rivera; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Gregory A. Roth; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Nobhojit Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Nafis Sadat; Mahdi Safdarian; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Joseph Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Ramon Sanabria; Parag K. Sancheti; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Damian Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mete I. Saylan; Elke Schaeffner; Josef Schmidhuber; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Austin E. Schumacher; Aletta E. Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson E. Servan-Mori; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Heidar Sharafi; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Meenakshi Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin Shfare; Peilin Shi; Chloe Shields; Mika Shigematsu; Yukito Shinohara; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Mark G. Shrime; Sharvari Rahul Shukla; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Lavanya Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Abiy Hiruye Sinke; Mekonnen Sisay; Vegard Skirbekk; Karen Sliwa; Alison Smith; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Badr H.A. Sobaih; Melek Somai; Samir Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Dan J. Stein; Mark Andrew Stokes; Lela Sturua; Muawiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rizwan Abdulkader Suliankatchi; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick J. Sur; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Andualem Henok Tadesse; Getachew Redae Taffere; Nikhil Tandon; Amare Tariku Tariku; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Girma Temam Shifa; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Azeb Gebresilassie Tesema; Dawit Jember Tesfaye; Belay Tessema; J.S. Thakur; Nihal Thomas; Matthew J. Thompson; Taavi Tillmann; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Anna Torre; Miguel Tortajada; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Avnish Tripathi; Srikanth Prasad Tripathy; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; Kald Beshir Tuem; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Uche S. Uchendu; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Rachel Updike; Olalekan A. Uthman; Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu; Pascual Rubén Valdez; Job F.M. Van Boven; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey K. Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Fasil Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell T. Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Marcia R. Weaver; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Jordan Weiss; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Richard G. White; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Yohanes Ayele Wondimkun; Abdulhalik Workicho; Grant M.A. Wyper; Denis Xavier; Gelin Xu; Lijing L. Yan; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Nigus Bililign Yimer; Peng Yin; Paul Yip; Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Gerald Yonga; Seok-Jun Yoon; Marcel Yotebieng; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Maigeng Zhou; Jun Zhu; Stephanie R.M. Zimsen; Ben Zipkin; Sanjay Zodpey; Liesl Joanna Zuhlke; Christopher J.L. Murray; Rafael Lozano
Background A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; Degu Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Y. Abyu; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Dominic Agius; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Ammar Albujeer; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Samia Alhabib; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Ali Almasi; Fatma Al-Maskari; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Kebede Amenu; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Johan Ärnlöv; Monika Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Peter S. Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Amitava Banerjee; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Robert J. Battista; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Adugnaw Berhane; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Anil Bhansali; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Helen Bitew; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Espen Bjertness; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Gene Bukhman; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Alanur Çavlin; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Hans De Steur; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Tim Robert Driscoll; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Erika Eldrenkamp; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Jessica Fanzo; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Hossein Farzam; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Wubalem Fekadu; Rachel Feldman; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Ron T. Gansevoort; Ana Cristina Garcia; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Sefonias Getachew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Max G. Griswold; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Francis Guillemin; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Giang Hai Ha; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Michael Tamene Haile; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Behzad Heydarpour; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Martha Híjar; Hans W. Hoek; Daniel J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Caitlyn Hughes; Chantal K. Huynh; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Neda Izadi; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Amr A. Jamal; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; K. Madhanraj; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; K.C. Prakash; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Helen W. Kiarie; Getiye D. Kibret; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Margaret N. Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A. Kudom; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carl Lachat; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Abraham K. Lagat; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Qing Lan; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Anders O. Larsson; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S. Lassi; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Janet L. Leasher; Georgy Lebedev; Jorge R. Ledesma; James B. Lee; Paul H. Lee; Andrew T. Leever; James Leigh; Mall Leinsalu; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Lydia R. Lucchesi; Ronan A. Lyons; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Srikanth Mangalam; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C. O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. 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Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Dana Bryazka; Marissa B. Reitsma; Max G. Griswold; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Abu Yousuf Md. Abdullah; E.S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Giovanni Addolorato; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Kishor Adhikari; Sangeet Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu; Manik Aggarwal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Md.Zakiul Alam; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Yousef Alimohamadi; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Kasim Allel; Jordi Alonso; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Firehiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Sohrab Amiri; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Jalal Arabloo; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Zahra Aryan; Malke Asaad; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Prince Atorkey; Alok Atreya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Olatunde O. Ayinde; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Awraris Hailu Balchut Bilchut; T.W. Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Elena A. Elena Blokhina; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Andre R. Brunoni; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Rosario Cárdenas; Andre F. Carvalho; Márcia Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Giulio Castelpietra; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh-Toi Chu; Nandita Chudal; Sheng-Chia Chung; Chuchu Churko; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Simona Costanzo; Richard G. Cowden; Michael H. Criqui; Natália Cruz-Martins; Garland T. Culbreth; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Beniam Darge Daniel; Anna Danielewicz; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araujo; Antonio Reis De Sá; Sisay Abebe Debela; Azizallah Dehghan; Andreas K. Demetriades; Meseret Derbew Molla; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Fariba Dorostkar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Bereket Duko; Bruce B. Duncan; Kristina Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Frank J. Elgar; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Azin Etemadimanesh; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Fatemeh Farahmand; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Xiaoqi Feng; Zinabu Fentaw; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Fabio Galvano; Balasankar Ganesan; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Tadele Regasa Gemechu; Lemma Getacher; Motuma Erena Getachew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Asmare Getie; Amir Ghaderi; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Lilian A. Ghandour; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Sherief Ghozy; Franklin N. Glozah; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Justyna Godos; Amit Goel; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Mohamad Golitaleb; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Temesgen Worku Gudayu; Bhawna Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Rabih Halwani; Tiilahun Beyene Handiso; Graeme J. Hankey; Sanam Hariri; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Ramesh Holla; Md. Mahbub Hossain; Sahadat Hossain; Seyed Kianoosh Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Lalu Muhammad Irham; M. Mofizul Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Louis Jacob; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Zahra Jamalpoor; Elham Jamshidi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Umesh Jayarajah; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Seyed Ali Jeddi; Alelign Tasew Jema; Ravi Prakash Jha; Har Ashish Jindal; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Robel Hussen Kabthymer; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Girum Gebremeskel Kanno; Neeti Kapoor; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Salah Eddin Karimi; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Imteyaz A. Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Hanna Kim; Jihee Kim; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Mika Kivimäki; Vitalii Klymchuk; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Ben Lacey; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Jerrald Lau; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Platon D. Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Rafael Lozano; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Farzan Madadizadeh; Áurea M. Madureira-Carvalho; Soleiman Mahjoub; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Rashidul Alam Mahumud; Alaa Makki; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Jose Martinez-Raga; Francisco A. Martinez-Villa; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mahsa Mayeli; John J. McGrath; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G. Menezes; Gert B.M. Mensink; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Atte Meretoja; Bedasa Taye Merga; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Antonio Mirijello; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Maryam Mobarakabadi; Marcello Moccia; Yousef Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Yousef Moradi; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C. Mullany; Beemnet Tekabe Mulugeta; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Christopher J.L. Murray; Julius C. Mwita; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Samata Nepal; Sudan Prasad Prasad Neupane; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Ali Nowroozi; Khan M. Nuruzzaman; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Ashok Pandey; Shahina Pardhan; Tarang Parekh; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Jay Patel; Siddhartha Pati; George C. Patton; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Amy E. Peden; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Evgenii Plotnikov; Pranil Man Singh Pradhan; Akila Prashant; Jianchao Quan; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Md.Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Drona Prakash Rasali; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez; Gregory A. Roth; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Reihaneh Sadeghian; Umar Saeed; Farhad Saeedi; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M. Samy; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Yaser Sarikhani; Brijesh Sathian; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Mehdi Sayyah; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Michaël Schwarzinger; David C. Schwebel; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Sarvenaz Shahin; Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi; Shayan Shahrokhi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Damtew Solomon Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Velizar Shivarov; Parnian Shobeiri; Roman Shrestha; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Natacha Torres da Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; Marco Solmi; Yonatan Solomon; Suhang Song; Yimeng Song; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Dan J. Stein; Sonu Hangma Subba; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Majid Taheri; Ker-Kan Tan; Minale Tareke; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Worku Animaw Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nikhil Kenny Thomas; Chalachew Tiruneh; Jovana Todorovic; Marco Torrado; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Sergi Trias-Llimós; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Alireza Vakilian; Rohollah Valizadeh; Mehdi Varmaghani; Shoban Babu Varthya; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Theo Vos; Birhanu Wagaye; Yasir Waheed; Mandaras Tariku Walde; Cong Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Abate Dargie Wubetu; Suowen Xu; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lin Yang; Gesila Endashaw E. Yesera; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yiğit; Ayenew Engida Yimaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Siddhesh Zadey; Mazyar Zahir; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zmaili; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Emmanuela Gakidou
Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns in prevalence of chewing tobacco use in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Parkes J. Kendrick; Marissa B. Reitsma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; E.S. Abhilash; Victor Aboyans; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Shailesh M. Advani; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Khalid F. Alhabib; Tilahun Ali; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Mahmoud A. Alomari; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Benny Antony; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Nicholas D. Arian; Monika Arora; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Wondwossen Niguse Asmare; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Marcel Ausloos; Asma Tahir Awan; Getinet Ayano; Getie Lake Aynalem; Samad Azari; B.B. Darshan; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. 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Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Stefan Stortecky; Kurt Straif; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Johan Sundström; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Minale Tareke; Md Ismail Tareque; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Bhaskar Thakur; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Hayley D. Tymeson; Saif Ullah; Brigid Unim; Rachel L. Updike; Olalekan A. Uthman; Marco Vacante; Constantine Vardavas; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Simone Vidale; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Kevin Welding; Andrea Werdecker; Joanna L. Whisnant; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yuichiro Yano; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Yigizie Yeshaw; Mohammed Zewdu Yimmer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Zabihollah Yousefi; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Jianrong Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Emmanuela Gakidou
Background: Chewing tobacco and other types of smokeless tobacco use have had less attention from the global health community than smoked tobacco use. However, the practice is popular in many parts of the world and has been linked to several adverse health outcomes. Understanding trends in prevalence with age, over time, and by location and sex is important for policy setting and in relation to monitoring and assessing commitment to the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. Methods: We estimated prevalence of chewing tobacco use as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 using a modelling strategy that used information on multiple types of smokeless tobacco products. We generated a time series of prevalence of chewing tobacco use among individuals aged 15 years and older from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories, including age-sex specific estimates. We also compared these trends to those of smoked tobacco over the same time period. Findings: In 2019, 273·9 million (95% uncertainty interval 258·5 to 290·9) people aged 15 years and older used chewing tobacco, and the global age-standardised prevalence of chewing tobacco use was 4·72% (4·46 to 5·01). 228·2 million (213·6 to 244·7; 83·29% [82·15 to 84·42]) chewing tobacco users lived in the south Asia region. Prevalence among young people aged 15–19 years was over 10% in seven locations in 2019. Although global age-standardised prevalence of smoking tobacco use decreased significantly between 1990 and 2019 (annualised rate of change: –1·21% [–1·26 to –1·16]), similar progress was not observed for chewing tobacco (0·46% [0·13 to 0·79]). Among the 12 highest prevalence countries (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Cambodia, India, Madagascar, Marshall Islands, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, Palau, Sri Lanka, and Yemen), only Yemen had a significant decrease in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use, which was among males between 1990 and 2019 (−0·94% [–1·72 to –0·14]), compared with nine of 12 countries that had significant decreases in the prevalence of smoking tobacco. Among females, none of these 12 countries had significant decreases in prevalence of chewing tobacco use, whereas seven of 12 countries had a significant decrease in the prevalence of tobacco smoking use for the period. Interpretation: Chewing tobacco remains a substantial public health problem in several regions of the world, and predominantly in south Asia. We found little change in the prevalence of chewing tobacco use between 1990 and 2019, and that control efforts have had much larger effects on the prevalence of smoking tobacco use than on chewing tobacco use in some countries. Mitigating the health effects of chewing tobacco requires stronger regulations and policies that specifically target use of chewing tobacco, especially in countries with high prevalence. Funding: Bloomberg Philanthropies and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Khanh Bao Tran; Justin J. Lang; Kelly Compton; Rixing Xu; Alistair R. Acheson; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Louise Penberthy; Amirali Aali; Qamar Abbas; Behzad Abbasi; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Ahmed Abdelwahab Abdelwahab; Gholamreza Abdoli; Hanan Abdulkadir Abdulkadir; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Abdorrahim Absalan; Yonas Derso Abtew; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Juan Manuel Acuna; Daniel Addison; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Miracle Ayomikun Adesina; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Sumia Afrin; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Manik Aggarwal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Rizwan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Wajeeha Aiman; Marjan Ajami; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Addis Aklilu; Maxwell Akonde; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Saleh Ali Alessy; Abdelazeem M. Algammal; Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Nivaldo Alonso; Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Rami H. Hani Al-Rifai; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Ala’a B. Al-Tammemi; Haya Altawalah; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Firehiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi; Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq; Hubert Amu; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Yaregal Animut Animut; Amir Anoushiravani; Ali Arash Anoushirvani; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Benny Antony; Maxwell Hubert Antwi; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Razique Anwer; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Hany Ariffin; Timur Aripov; Muhammad Arshad; Al Artaman; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Armin Aryannejad; Malke Asaad; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Reza Assadi; Mohammad Athar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Tewachew Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Solomon Shitu Ayen; Davood Azadi; Sina Azadnajafabad; Saber Azami-Aghdash; Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y.Y. Azzam; Amirhesam Babajani; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Nader Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Ahad Bakhtiari; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Maciej Banach; Indrajit Banerjee; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Nasir Z. Bashir; Azadeh Bashiri; Saurav Basu; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Aeysha Begum; Alehegn Bekele Bekele; Alemayehu Sayih Belay; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Luis Belo; Habib Benzian; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez; Eduardo Bernabe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Bharti Bhandari Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Soumitra S. Bhuyan; Sadia Bibi; Awraris Hailu Bilchut; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Antonio Biondi; Mesfin Geremaw Birega Birega; Habitu Eshetu Birhan; Tone Bjørge; Oleg Blyuss; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Christina Maree Buchanan; Norma B. Bulamu; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Márcia Carvalho; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; William C.S. Cho; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Aaron J. Cohen; Joao Conde; Sandra Cortés; Vera Marisa Costa; Natália Cruz-Martins; Garland T. Culbreth; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Anna Danielewicz; An Thi Minh Dao; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Elham Davtalab Esmaeili; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Azizallah Dehghan; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Afshin Derakhshani; Meseret Derbew Molla; Diriba Dereje; Kalkidan Solomon Deribe; Rupak Desai; Markos Desalegn Desalegn; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Samuel Abebe A. Dessalegni; Gashaw Dessie; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Shilpi Gupta Dixit; Saeid Doaei; Linh Phuong Doan; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Wendel Mombaque dos Santos; Tim Robert Driscoll; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Sareh Edalati; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Donatus U. Ekwueme; Maha El Tantawi; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Iffat Elbarazi; Hesham Elghazaly; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Tegegne Eshetu; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Juan Espinosa-Montero; Farshid Etaee; Azin Etemadimanesh; Tahir Eyayu; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Saman Fahimi; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Jawad Fares; Abbas Farmany; Umar Farooque; Hossein Farrokhpour; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Wafa Fatima; Hamed Fattahi; Ginenus Fekadu; Berhanu Elfu Feleke; Allegra Allegra Ferrari; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Roham Foroumadi; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Nasrin Galehdar; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Yosef Haile Gebremariam; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Yohannes Fikadu Geda; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Melaku Getachew; Motuma Erena Getachew; Kazem Ghaffari; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Fariba Ghassemi; Ajnish Ghimire; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Sherief Ghozy; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat T. Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Justyna Godos; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Mohamad Golitaleb; Giuseppe Gorini; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Giuseppe Grosso; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Temesgen Worku Gudayu; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mekdes Kondale Gurara; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Atlas Haddadi Avval; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Adel Hajj Ali; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Esam S. Halboub; Aram Halimi; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Sanam Hariri; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Hamidreza Hasani; Seyedeh Melika Hashemi; Abbas M. Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Zahra Heidarymeybodi; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Yuta Hiraike; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Ramesh Holla; Marianne Holm; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Hoseini; Md. Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Ali Hosseinzadeh; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Fernando N. Hugo; Ayesha Humayun; Salman Hussain; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Kaire Innos; Pooya Iranpour; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Md Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Farhad Islami; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Linda Merin J; Abhishek Jaiswal; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Mahsa Jalili; Shahram Jalilian; Elham Jamshidi; Sung-In Jang; Chinmay T. Jani; Tahereh Javaheri; Umesh Umesh Jayarajah; Shubha Jayaram; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Rime Jebai; Bedru Jemal; Wonjeong Jeong; Ravi Prakash Jha; Har Ashish Jindal; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi; Vidya Kadashetti; Farima Kahe; Pradnya Vishal Kakodkar; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Farin Kamangar; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Eswar Kandaswamy; Himal Kandel; HyeJung Kang; Girum Gebremeskel Kanno; Neeti Kapoor; Sitanshu Sekhar Kar; Shama D. Karanth; Ibraheem M. Karaye; André Karch; Amirali Karimi; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Joonas H. Kauppila; Harkiran Kaur; Abinet Gebremickael Kebede; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Gemechu Gemechu Kejela; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Maryam Keramati; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Abbas Khan; Abdul Aziz Khan Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Md. Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Khaled Khatab; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Mohammad Amin Khazeei Tabari; Mehdi Khezeli; Mahmoud Khodadost; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Miloslav Klugar; Jitka Klugarová; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Pavel Kolkhir; Farzad Kompani; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; Mukhtar Kulimbet; Akshay Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Carlo La Vecchia; Arista Lahiri; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Judit Lám; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Bagher Larijani; Savita Lasrado; Jerrald Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Yo Han Lee; Samson Mideksa Legesse; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Ming-Chieh Li; Stephen S. Lim; Gang Liu; Jue Liu; Chun-Han Lo; Ayush Lohiya; Platon D. Lopukhov; László Lorenzovici; Mojgan Lotfi; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ahmad R. Mafi; Sameh Magdeldin; Soleiman Mahjoub; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Morteza Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Rashidul Alam Mahumud; Azeem Majeed; Jamal Majidpoor; Alaa Makki; Konstantinos Christos Makris; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Sneha Deepak Mallya; Mohammed A. Mamun; Ana Laura Manda; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Miquel Martorell; Sahar Masoudi; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Clara N. Matei; Elezebeth Mathews; Manu Raj Mathur; Vasundhara Mathur; Martin McKee; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Khalid Mehmood; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ravi Mehrotra; Addisu Melese; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; SIsay Derso Mengesha; Laverne G. Mensah; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Andry Yasmid Mera Mera-Mamián; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Mehari Woldemariam Merid; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Belsity Temesgen Meselu; Mahboobeh Meshkat; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Ted R. Miller; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Seyed Kazem Mirinezhad; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Hamed Mirzaei; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Abay Sisay Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Mohammad Mohseni; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Alex Molassiotis; Mariam Molokhia; Kaveh Momenzadeh; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ute Mons; Ahmed Al Montasir; Fateme Montazeri; Arnulfo Montero; Mohammad Amin Moosavi; Abdolvahab Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Mostafa Moradi Sarabi; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Shane Douglas Morrison; Jakub Morze; Abbas Mosapour; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Daniel Munblit; Sandra B. Munro; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Jonah Musa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Gabriele Nagel; Mohammadreza Naghipour; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Hasan Nassereldine; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Rawlance Ndejjo; Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba; Wogene Wogene Negash; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Kazem Nejati; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huy Van Nguyen Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Nurulamin M. Noor; Maryam Noori; Nafise Noroozi; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Ropo Ebenezer Ogunsakin; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; In-Hwan Oh; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Emad Omer; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Sokking Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Hans Orru; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Abderrahim Oulhaj; Bilcha Oumer; Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu; Babatunji Emmanuel Oyinloye; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Babak Pakbin; Keyvan Pakshir; Reza Pakzad; Tamás Palicz; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Ashok Pandey; Suman Pant; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Seoyeon Park; Jay Patel; Siddhartha Pati; Rajan Paudel; Uttam Paudel; Mihaela Paun; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Minjin Peng; Jeevan Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Simone Perna; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Richard G. Pestell; Raffaele Pezzani; Cristiano Piccinelli; Julian David Pillay; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Tobias Pischon; Maarten J. Postma; Ashkan Pourabhari Langroudi; Akram Pourshams; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Mojtaba Raeisi; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Nasiru Raheem; Fakher Rahim; Md. Obaidur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Sina Rashedi; Amirfarzan Rashidi; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Ashfaq Ur Rehman; Inayat Ur Rehman; Marissa B. Reitsma; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Maryam Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Aziz Rezapour; Abanoub Riad; Reza Rikhtegar; Maria Rios-Blancas; Thomas J. Roberts; Peter Rohloff; Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; S. Manjula; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Bahar Saberzadeh-Ardestani; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Mohsen Safaei; Azam Safary; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Hedayat Salari; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Yoseph Leonardo Samodra; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Arash Sarveazad; Fatemeh Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Nicolas Sayegh; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Michaël Schwarzinger; Mario Šekerija; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Kenbon Seyoum; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Pritik A. Shah; Saeed Shahabi; Izza Shahid; Mohammad Amin Shahrbaf; Hamid R. Shahsavari; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Elaheh Shaker; Mohammed Shannawaz; Mequannent Melaku Sharew Sharew; Azam Sharifi; Javad Sharifi-Rad; Purva Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Aziz Sheikh; Mahdi Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Ali Sheikhy; Peter Robin Shepherd; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Reza Shirkoohi; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; K.M. Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Velizar Shivarov; Parnian Shobeiri; Zahra Shokri Varniab; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Guilherme Silva Julian; Nicola Silvestris; Wudneh Simegn; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Ambrish Singh; Garima Singh; Harpreet Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Abiy H. Sinke; Md. Shahjahan Siraj; Freddy Sitas; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Matthew J. Soeberg; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Yonatan Solomon; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Yimeng Song; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Sergey Soshnikov; Houman Sotoudeh; Alieu Sowe; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Ryan Suk; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Saima Sultana; Daniel Sur; Miklós Szócska; Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei; Takahiro Tabuchi; Hooman Tadbiri; Ensiyeh Taheri; Majid Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Ken Takahashi; Iman M. Talaat; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; Nathan Y. Tat; Vivian Y. Tat; Ahmad Tavakoli; Arash Tavakoli; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Viveksandeep Thoguluva Chandrasekar; Nihal Thomas; Nikhil Kenny Thomas; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Amir Tiyuri; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Roman Topor-Madry; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Gebresilasea Gendisha Ukke; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Sana Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz
Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license