Browsing by Author "Negar Rezaei"

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Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Amy E. Peden; Patricia Cullen; Kate Louise Francis; Holger Moeller; Margaret M. Peden; Pengpeng Ye; Maoyi Tian; Zhiyong Zou; Susan M. Sawyer; Amirali Aali; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Meriem Abdoun; Rami Abd-Rabu; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Ame Mehadi Abdurehman; Getachew Abebe; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu Gharbieh; Denberu Eshetie Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Ololade Grace Adewole; Sangeet Adhikari; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Bachelor Afolabi; Saira Afzal; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Zahra Babaei Aghdam; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Janardhana P. Aithala; Budi Aji; Meisam Akhlaghdoust; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Astawus Alemayehu; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Shujait Ali; Liaqat Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Louay Almidani; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami; Sohrab Amiri; Hoda Amiri; Tadele Fentabil Anagaw; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Davood Anvari; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Asrat Arja; Judie Arulappan; Ashokan Arumugam; Armin Aryannejad; Saeed Asgary; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Alok Atreya; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Samad Azari; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Asaminew Birhanu Balta; MacIej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Hansi Bansal; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco BaroneAdesi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Abebe Ayalew Bekel; Alehegn Bekele Bekele; Salaheddine Bendak; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Saeid Bitaraf; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Souad Bouaoud; Julie Brown; Katrin Burkart; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Luis Alberto CÃ¡mera; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Chao Cao; Andre F. Carvalho; MÃ¡rcia Carvalho; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Eeshwar K. Chandrasekar; Jung-Chen Chang; Periklis Charalampous; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bitew Mekonnen Chekole; Abdulaal Chitheer; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Hitesh Chopra; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; NatÃ¡lia Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Gary L. Darmstadt; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Anna Dastiridou; Sisay Abebe Debela; Amin Dehghan; Getnet Makasha Demeke; Andreas K. Demetriades; Solomon Demissie; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Ahmed Elabbas Mustafa Elagali; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Abbas Farmany; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Getahun Fetensa; Bikila Regassa Feyisa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Behzad Foroutan; Masoud Foroutan; Kayode Raphael Fowobaje; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A. Gadanya; Yaseen Galali; Nasrin Galehdar; Balasankar Ganesan; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot; Yosef Haile Gebremariam; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Urge Gerema; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Reza Ghanbari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Ali Gholami; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Sherief Ghozy; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Iago GinÃ©-VÃ¡zquez; Zeleke Abate Girma; James C. Glasbey; Franklin N. Glozah; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Michal Grivna; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Yuming Guo; Veer Bala Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Bhawna Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Netanja I. Harlianto; Mehdi Harorani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Yuta Hiraike; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Sedighe Hosseini Shabanan; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Amir Human Hoveidaei; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Salman Hussain; Amal Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Behzad Imani; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Mohammad Mainul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; J. Linda Merin; Haitham Jahrami; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Umesh Jayarajah; Sudha Jayaraman; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Bedru Jemal; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk JÃ¼risson; Ali Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Dler Hussein Kadir; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Rajesh Kamath; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Hassan Karami; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Samad Karkhah; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Joonas H. Kauppila; Gbenga A. Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Cumali Keskin; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Yusra H. Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Abbas Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Habibolah Khazaie; Jagdish Khubchandani; Zemene Demelash Kifle; Jihee Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Cameron J. Kneib; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nithin Kumar; Naveen Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Lucie Laflamme; Judit LÃ¡m; IvÃ¡n Landires; Bagher Larijani; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Carlo La Vecchia; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Yo Han Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei Chen Lee; Samson Mideksa Legesse; Shanshan Li; Stephen S. Lim; LÃ¡szlÃ³ Lorenzovici; Amana Ogeto Luke; Farzan Madadizadeh; Áurea M. Madureira-Carvalho; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Soleiman Mahjoub; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Elezebeth Mathews; Sazan Qadir Maulud; Dennis Mazingi; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Ritesh G. Menezes; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Atte Meretoja; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá; Ted R. Miller; Seyed Peyman Mirghaderi; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Chaitanya Mittal; Madeline E. Moberg; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Soheil Mohammadi; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Mohammad Mohseni; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Sumaira Mubarik; Lorenzo Muccioli; Soumyadeep Mukherjee; Francesk Mulita; Ghulam Mustafa; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Hasan Nassereldine; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Nafise Noroozi; Virginia NuÃ±ez-Samudio; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Chimedsuren Ochir; Julius Nyerere Odhiambo; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Nikita Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Aslam Ramjan Pathan; Siddhartha Pati; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Mario F.P. Peres; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Michael R. Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Mohsen Poursadeqiyan; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Ibrahim Qattea; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Fakher Rahim; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Firman Suryadi Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Sheetal Raj Moolambally; Sheena Ramazanu; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi; Prateek Rastogi; Azad Rasul; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Negar Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Aziz Rezapour; Abanoub Riad; Muhammad Riaz; Jennifer Rickard; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Bedanta Roy; S. Manjula; Aly M.A. Saad; Siamak Sabour; Leila Sabzmakan; Basema Saddik; Malihe Sadeghi; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Sher Zaman Safi; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Harihar Sahoo; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Morteza Saki; Payman Salamati; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Yaser Sarikhani; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; David C. Schwebel; Hamed Seddighi; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Hosein Shabaninejad; Melika Shafeghat; Pritik A. Shah; Saeed Shahabi; Ataollah Shahbandi; Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohd Shanawaz; Mohammed Shannawaz; Mequannent Melaku Sharew Sharew; Neeraj Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Maryam Shayan; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jiabin Shen; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Jae Il Shin; Nebiyu Aniley Shitaye; K.M. Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Soraya Siabani; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Wudneh Simegn; Ehsan Sinaei; Paramdeep Singh; Robert Sinto; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; S.N. Chandan; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Yonatan Solomon; Yi Song; Raúl A.R.C. Sousa; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Mark A. Stokes; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Jing Sun; Rafael TabarÃ©s-Seisdedos; Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei; Mohammad Tabish; Ensiyeh Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Mircea Tampa; KerKan Tan; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Md Tariqujjaman; Nathan Y. Tat; Vivian Y. Tat; Arash Tavakoli; Belay Negash Tefera; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Rekha Thapar; Nikhil Kenny Thomas; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Marius Belmondo Tincho; Amir Tiyuri; Munkhsaikhan Togtmol; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Sana Ullah; Saif Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Srikanth Umakanthan; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Siavash Vaziri; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Linh Gia Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Cong Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Abay Tadesse Woday; Ai-Min Wu; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yigit; Eshetu Yisihak; Naohiro Yonemoto; Yuyi You; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hossein Yusefi; Mazyar Zahir; Sojib Bin Zaman; Iman Zare; Kourosh Zarea; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohammad Zoladl; George C. Patton; Rebecca Q. Ivers
Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(American Medical Association, 2022) Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Kelly Compton; Frances E. Dean; Weijia Fu; Brian L. Gaw; James D. Harvey; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Dan Lu; Alyssa Pennini; Rixing Xu; Emad Ababneh; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Hassan Abolhassani; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Saqib Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Nivaldo Alonso; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Maxwell Hubert Antwi; Davood Anvari; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Hany Ariffin; Timur Aripov; Muhammad Arshad; Al Artaman; Judie Arulappan; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Prince Atorkey; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Temesgen Ayenew; Mohammed A. Azab; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Masoud Behzadifar; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Catherine Bisignano; Tone Bjorge; Archie Bleyer; Oleg Blyuss; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Dejana Braithwaite; Amanpreet Brar; Hermann Brenner; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Ferrán Catalá-López; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Achille Cernigliaro; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Joao Conde; Sanda Cortés; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Amanda Ramos Cunha; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; José das Neves; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Saeid Doaei; Fariba Dorostkar; Francisco Winter dos Santos Figueiredo; Tim Robert Driscoll; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maha El Tantawi; Hassan El-Abid; Iffat Elbarazi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Arash Etemadi; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Silvano Gallus; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat T. Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Avirup Guha; D. Sanjeeva Gunasekera; Bhawna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Fernando N. Hugo; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Fidelia Ida; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Shubha Jayaram; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Danial Kahrizi; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Nawzad Kameran Al-Salihi; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Taras Kavetskyy; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Rovshan Khalilov; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Amir M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Gyu Ri Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Tezer Kutluk; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Paolo Lauriola; Sang-Woong Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Jiarui Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Xuefeng Liu; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Shilpa Male; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Prashant Mathur; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Hamed Mirzaei; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Mohammad Amin Moosavi; Yousef Moradi; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Sumaira Mubarik; Lillian Mwanri; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Chie Nagata; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Rawlance Ndejjo; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Nurulamin M. Noor; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Emad Omar; Ahmed Omar Bali; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Sokking Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Hans Orru; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Demosthenes Panagiotakos; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Harsh K. Patel; Jenil R. Patel; Siddhartha Pati; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Uttam Paudel; David M. Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Julian David Pillay; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Farhad Pishgar; Indrashis Podder; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Akila Prashant; Liliana Preotescu; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Ata Rafiee; Fakher Rahim; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Thomas J. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Peter Rohloff; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; S. Manjula; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Yaeesh Sardiwalla; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Sekerija; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Zahra Shaghaghi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Erfan Shamsoddin; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Velizar Shivarov; Soraya Siabani; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matthew J. Soeberg; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Houman Sotoudeh; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Kurt Straif; Ranjeeta Subedi; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Iyad Sultan; Saima Sultana; Daniel Sur; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Hooman Tadbiri; Amir Taherkhani; Ken Takahashi; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Vivian Y. Tat; Bemnet Amare A. Tedla; Yonas Getaye Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Viveksandeep Thoguluva Chandrasekar; Nihal Thomas; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Massimiliano Veroux; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Paul Ward; Yi Feng Wen; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Fariba Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Jianrong Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Linghui Zhou; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Ivan R. Zimmermann; Christina Fitzmaurice; Christopher J.L. Murray; Lisa M. Force
IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Victor Aboyans; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Maryam Adabi; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Mostafa Amini-Rarani; Fatemeh Amiri; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Colin Angus; Mina Anjomshoa; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Filippo Ariani; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A. Asadi-Pooya; Charlie Ashbaugh; Michael Assmus; Zahra Atafar; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Mohammad Amin Bahrami; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Ahad Bakhtiari; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Alberto Baldasseroni; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Daniela Balzi; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Agegnehu Bante Bante; Adhanom Gebreegziabher Baraki; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Lingkan Barua; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Jacob S. Becker; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Yannick Béjot; Michelle L. Bell; Fiona B. Bennitt; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Reshmi Bhageerathy; Neeraj Bhala; Dinesh Bhandari; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Antonio Biondi; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Catherine Bisignano; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Helen Bitew; Somayeh Bohlouli; Mehdi Bohluli; Alexandra S. Boon-Dooley; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Shiva Borzouei; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Dana Bryazka; Blair R. Bumgarner; Katrin Burkart; Richard Thomas Burnett; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Leah E. Cahill; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Christopher R. Cederroth; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Kai-Lan Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Nicolas Cherbuin; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Hanne Christensen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Classen; Aaron J. Cohen; Kelly Compton; Owen R. Cooper; Vera Marisa Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Richard G. Cowden; Di H. Cross; Jessica A. Cruz; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Anna-Karin Danielsson; Paul I. Dargan; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José das Neves; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Marissa DeLang; Robert Paul Dellavalle; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nikolaos Dervenis; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Klara Dokova; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Tim Robert Driscoll; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; David Edvardsson; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Iffat Elbarazi; Islam Y. Elgendy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Holly E. 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Gething; Maryam Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Fatemeh Ghaffarifar; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Hesam Ghiasvand; Nermin Ghith; Asadollah Gholamian; Rakesh Ghosh; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Salime Goharinezhad; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C. Goulart; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rashid Abdi Guled; Gaorui Guo; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Tarun Gupta; Beatrix Haddock; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Abdul Hafiz; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Iman Halvaei; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Melanie S. Hammer; Graeme J. Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Hannah J. Henrikson; Molly E. Herbert; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Thomas R. Hird; Hans W. Hoek; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Kejia Hu; Tanvir M. Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Chantal K. Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Vincent C. Iannucci; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Nayu Ikeda; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Helen Ippolito; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; M. Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Chidozie C.D. Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Hussain Jafari; Morteza Jafarinia; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Spencer L. James; Hosna Janjani; Tahereh Javaheri; Javad Javidnia; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Lars Johansson; Oommen John; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Catherine Owens Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Hamed Kalani; Rizwan Kalani; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Cathleen Keller; Laura Kemmer; Parkes J. Kendrick; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Salman Khazaei; Christian Kieling; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Jacek A. 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Mamun; Ana Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Ana M. Mantilla Herrera; Joemer C. Maravilla; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Fereshteh Mehri; Kala M. Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Noushin Mohammadifard; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Ammas Siraj Mohammed; Hussen Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Meghan D. Mooney; Ghobad Moradi; Masoud Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Jonathan F. Mosser; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Erin C. Mullany; Kamarul Imran Musa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Behshad Naghshtabrizi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod C. Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Ming Nguyen; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Christopher M. Odell; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Kanyin L. Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Osayomwanbo Osarenotor; Frank B. Osei; Samuel M. Ostroff; Adrian Otoiu; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Charles D. H. Parry; Maja Pasovic; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Sangram Kishor Patel; Mona Pathak; Scott B. Patten; George C. Patton; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Amy E. Peden; Alyssa Pennini; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; David M. Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Cristiano Piccinelli; Tessa M. Pilz; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Dietrich Plass; Suzanne Polinder; Kevan R. Polkinghorne; Constance Dimity Pond; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Anna Poznañska; Sergio I. Prada; V. Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alberto Raggi; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja C. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Ramu Rawat; Christian Razo; Sofia Boston Redford; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Phoebe-Anne Rhinehart; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniel Cury Ribeiro; Daniela Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Juan A. Rivera; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Sonia Rodríguez-Ramírez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Robin Room; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A. Roth; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Reza Saeedi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Yahya Safari; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Payman Salamati; Hosni Salem; Marwa R. Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Omar Mukhtar Salman; Joshua A. Salomon; Zainab Samad; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Tania G. Sánchez-Pimienta; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; João Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Sonia Saxena; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Silvia Schiavolin; Markus P. Schlaich; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Berrin Serdar; Marc L. Serre; Jamileh Shadid; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; Kenji Shibuya; Kevin David Shield; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Radoslaw Sierpinski; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; João Pedro Silva; Kyle E. Simpson; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Eirini Skiadaresi; Søren T. Skou; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Emma U.R. Smith; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J. D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Cory N. Spencer; Adel Spotin; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Caroline Stein; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo Stockfelt; Mark A. Stokes; Kurt Straif; Jacob L. Stubbs; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Iyad Sultan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Takahiro Tabuchi; Amir Taherkhani; Masih Tajdini; Ken Takahashi; Jukka S. Takala; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; George D. Thurston; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Anna E. Torre; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara Travillian; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Riaz Uddin; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Pascual R. Valdez; Aaron van Donkelaar; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Yousef Veisani; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Alexandrea Watson; Jingkai Wei; Melissa Y. Wei Wei; Robert G. Weintraub; Jordan Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; J. Jason West; Ronny Westerman; Joanna L. Whisnant; Harvey A. Whiteford; Kirsten E. Wiens; Charles D. A. Wolfe; Sarah S. Wozniak; Ai-Min Wu; Junjie Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Gelin Xu; Rixing Xu; Simon Yadgir; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Mousa Yaminfirooz; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Tomas Y. Yeheyis; Christopher Sabo Yilgwan; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Theodore Patrick Younker; Bahman Yousefi; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Abdilahi Yousuf Yousuf; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Jeff T. Zhao; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Yingxi Zhao; Peng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Arash Ziapour; Stephanie R. M. Zimsen; Stephen S. Lim; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global burden of chronic respiratory diseases and risk factors, 1990–2019: an update from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Sara Momtazmanesh; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Negar Rezaei; Parnian Shobeiri; Amirali Aali; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Meriem Abdoun; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Abu Yousuf Md Abdullah; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Zahra Abrehdari-Tafreshi; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Denberu Eshetie Adane Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Astawus Alemayehu; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Javad Aminian Dehkordi; Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Catherine M Antony; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Judie Arulappan; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Engi F Attia; Meshesha Tsegazeab Ayele; Sina Azadnajafabad; Abraham Samuel Babu; Sara Bagherieh; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; MacIej Banach; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Saurav Basu; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Isabela M Bensenor; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Souad Bouaoud; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Zahid A Butt; Daniela Calina; Luis Alberto Cámera; Gashaw Sisay Chanie; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Dinh-Toi Chu; Aaron J Cohen; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Sisay Abebe Debela; Laura Delgado-Ortiz; Diriba Dereje; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Gebisa Dirirsa; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Abdel Douiri; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Ahmed Elabbas Mustafa Elagali; Muhammed Elhadi; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Andre Faro; Ali Fatehizadeh; Ginenus Fekadu; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Peter Andras Gaal; Santosh Gaihre; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Urge Gerema; Motuma Erena Getachew; Tamiru Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanbari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholami; Artyom Urievich Gil; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mostafa Hadei; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Mehdi Harorani; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Hamidreza Hasani; Abdiwahab Hashi; Simon I Hay; Mohammad Heidari; Merel E Hellemons; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Hoseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Sufyan Ibrahim; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Linda Merin J; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Olatunji Johnson; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Vaishali Kraghuabr; Billingsley Kaambwa; Zubair Kabir; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Himal Kandel; Shama D Karanth; Ibraheem M Karaye; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Gizat M Kassie; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Imteyaz A Khan; Moien A B Khan; Yusra H Khan; Haneen Khreis; Min Seo Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Luke D Knibbs; Pavel Kolkhir; Somayeh Komaki; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Ali Koolivand; Oleksii Korzh; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Kris J Krohn; Naveen Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Carlo La Vecchia; Judit Lám; Qing Lan; Savita Lasrado; Kamaluddin Latief; Paolo Lauriola; Sang-Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Samson Mideksa Legesse; Jacopo Lenzi; Ming-Chieh Li; Ro-Ting Lin; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Chun-Han Lo; László Lorenzovici; Yifei Lu; Soundarya Mahalingam; Elham Mahmoudi; Narayan B Mahotra; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Elezebeth Mathews; Sazan Qadir Maulud; Enkeleint A Mechili; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G Menezes; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Mahboobeh Meshkat; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Prasanna Mithra; Javad Moghadasi; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Marita Mohammadshahi; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Nagabhishek Moka; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Md Moniruzzaman; Fateme Montazeri; Maryam Moradi; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Christopher J L Murray; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Zuhair S Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Wogene Wogene Negash; Evangelia Nena; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira De Sá; Ali Nowroozi; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Rahman Md Obaidur; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Sergej M Ostojic; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy; Tamás Palicz; Adrian Pana; Eun-Kee Park; Jay Patel; Rajan Paudel; Uttam Paudel; Paolo Pedersini; Marcos Pereira; Renato B Pereira; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Majid Pirestani; Maarten J Postma; Akila Prashant; Mohammad Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Sima Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Prashant Rajput; Juwel Rana; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Sina Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Maryam Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Mónica Rodrigues; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; David Rojas-Rueda; Kristina E Rudd; Aly M A Saad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Sateesh Sakhamuri; Sana Salehi; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Shashank Shekhar; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Colin R Simpson; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Ireneous N Soyiri; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Leo Stockfelt; Jing Sun; Ken Takahashi; Iman M Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Birhan Tsegaw Taye; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Rekha Thapar; Friedrich Thienemann; Amir Tiyuri; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Sana Ullah; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Rohollah Valizadeh; Job F M Van Boven; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Siavash Vaziri; Francesco S Violante; Bay Vo; Ning Wang; Melissa Y Wei; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Suowen Xu; Xiaoyue Xu; Lalit Yadav; Yazachew Yismaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Moein Zangiabadian; Zahra Zareshahrabadi; Armin Zarrintan; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zelalem Banjaw Zegeye; Yunquan Zhang; Mohsen Naghavi; Bagher Larijani; Farshad Farzadfar
Background: Updated data on chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are vital in their prevention, control, and treatment in the path to achieving the third UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a one-third reduction in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 2030. We provided global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of CRDs and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we estimated mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalence, and incidence of CRDs, i.e. chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), asthma, pneumoconiosis, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, and other CRDs, from 1990 to 2019 by sex, age, region, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) in 204 countries and territories. Deaths and DALYs from CRDs attributable to each risk factor were estimated according to relative risks, risk exposure, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input. Findings: In 2019, CRDs were the third leading cause of death responsible for 4.0 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 3.6–4.3) with a prevalence of 454.6 million cases (417.4–499.1) globally. While the total deaths and prevalence of CRDs have increased by 28.5% and 39.8%, the age-standardised rates have dropped by 41.7% and 16.9% from 1990 to 2019, respectively. COPD, with 212.3 million (200.4–225.1) prevalent cases, was the primary cause of deaths from CRDs, accounting for 3.3 million (2.9–3.6) deaths. With 262.4 million (224.1–309.5) prevalent cases, asthma had the highest prevalence among CRDs. The age-standardised rates of all burden measures of COPD, asthma, and pneumoconiosis have reduced globally from 1990 to 2019. Nevertheless, the age-standardised rates of incidence and prevalence of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis have increased throughout this period. Low- and low-middle SDI countries had the highest age-standardised death and DALYs rates while the high SDI quintile had the highest prevalence rate of CRDs. The highest deaths and DALYs from CRDs were attributed to smoking globally, followed by air pollution and occupational risks. Non-optimal temperature and high body-mass index were additional risk factors for COPD and asthma, respectively. Interpretation: Albeit the age-standardised prevalence, death, and DALYs rates of CRDs have decreased, they still cause a substantial burden and deaths worldwide. The high death and DALYs rates in low and low-middle SDI countries highlights the urgent need for improved preventive, diagnostic, and therapeutic measures. Global strategies for tobacco control, enhancing air quality, reducing occupational hazards, and fostering clean cooking fuels are crucial steps in reducing the burden of CRDs, especially in low- and lower-middle income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Authors
Global, regional, and national burden of allergic disorders and their risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023) Youn Ho Shin; Jimin Hwang; Rosie Kwon; Seung Won Lee; Min Seo Kim; Jae Il Shin; Dong Keon Yon; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Elissa M. Abrams; Yonas Derso Abtew; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Denberu Eshetie Adane Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Rishan Adha; Amin Adibi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Anurag Agrawal; Sohail Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Sayer Al-Azzam; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Zaid Altaany; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hany Aly; Adnan Ansar; Judie Arulappan; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Avinash Aujayeb; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mahsa Babaei; Hassan Babamohamadi; Alaa Badawi; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Khuloud Bajbouj; Maciej Banach; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Kebede A. Beyene; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Andras Bikov; Jiao Cai; Paulo Camargos; Josip Car; Sinclair Carr; Andrea Carugno; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Periklis Charalampous; Mohammadreza Chashmyazdan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Barbara Corso; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Dessalegn Demeke; Biniyam Demisse; Daniel Diaz; Mengistie Diress; Deepa Dongarwar; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Muhammed Elhadi; Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy; Habtamu Esubalew; Farshid Etaee; Azin Etemadimanesh; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Ali Fatehizadeh; Syeda Anum Fatima Fatima; Xiaoqi Feng; Mohammad Fereidouni; Nuno Ferreira; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Abera Getachew Obsa; Fataneh Ghadirian; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Sherief Ghozy; Richard F. Gillum; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; Admasu Belay AB Gizaw; Mohamad Goldust; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Sapna Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Md Abdul Hannan; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Abdiwahab Hashi; Mohammed Bheser Hassen; Behzad Heibati; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Shakhaoat Hossain; Salman Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Rana Irilouzadian; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Zhanat Bakhitovna I. Z. B. Ispayeva; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Linda Merin J; Maziar Jajarmi; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Shubha Jayaram; Rime Jebai; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Billingsley Kaambwa; Zubair Kabir; Feroze Kaliyadan; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Hanie Karimi; Harkiran Kaur; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Moien A. B. Khan; Saval Khanal; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Biruk Getahun Kibret; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Pavel Kolkhir; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Oleksii Korzh; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Claudia E. Kuehni; G. Anil Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; L. V. Simhachalam Kutikuppala; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Judit Lám; Bagher Larijani; Kamaluddin Latief; Paolo Lauriola; Thao Thi Thu Le; Yo Han Lee; Jacopo Lenzi; Ming-Chieh Li; Shanshan Li; Virendra S. Ligade; Stephen S. Lim; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Chun-Han Lo; Graciliana Lopes; Soundarya Mahalingam; Sandeep B. Maharaj; Mansour Adam Mahmoud; Azeem Majeed; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Andrea Maugeri; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Ritesh G. Menezes; George A. Mensah; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Manish Mishra; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Md Moniruzzaman; Temesgen Mulugeta; Daniel Munblit; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Hasan Nassereldine; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Tze Pin Ng; Dang H. Nguyen; Van Thanh Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Hasti Nouraei; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Rahman Md Obaidur; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Patrick Godwin Okwute; Andrew T. Olagunju; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Hans Orru; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Anamika Pandey; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Kee Park; Jay Patel; Shankargouda Patil; Venkata Suresh Patthipati; Uttam Paudel; Marcos Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Indrashis Podder; Vivek Podder; Arash Pour Mohammad; Ibrahim Qattea; Navid Rabiee; Mehran Rahimi; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Prashant Rajput; Pradhum Ram; Premkumar Ramasubramani; Indu Ramachandra Rao; Ahmed Mustafa Rashid; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Nakul Ravikumar; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Aavishkar Raj Regmi; Nazila Rezaei; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez; Luca Ronfani; Aly M. A. Saad; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Dominic Sagoe; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Joseph W. Sakshaug; Saina Salahi; Sana Salehi; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Made Ary Sarasmita; Maryam Sarkhosh; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Humaira Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Aziz Sheikh; Shashank Shekhar; Mika Shigematsu; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Colin R. Simpson; Jasvinder A. Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Virendra Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Yonatan Solomon; Suhang Song; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mindy D. Szeto; Iman M. Talaat; Jacques J. L. Lukenze Tamuzi; Ker-Kan Tan; Nathan Y. Tat; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Dufera Rikitu Terefa; Riki Tesler; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Tala Tillawi; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Sana Ullah; Era Upadhyay; Seyed Mohammad Vahabi; Job F. M. van Boven; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Georgios-Ioannis Verras; Rafael José Vieira; Francesco S. Violante; Theo Vos; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Hywel C. Williams; Dereje Y. Yada; Yazachew Yismaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Heather J. Zar; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Mohammad A. Zeineddine; Getachew Assefa Zenebe; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Hanqing Zhao; Mohammad Zoladl
Background: Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described. Results: In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224–309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165–178 million] total cases of AD globally; age-standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899–4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192–2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: −27.2 to −20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8–4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age-specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5–9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for individuals with higher SDI; however, mortality and DALYs rates of individuals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14–5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615–122,841] asthma deaths. Conclusions: Asthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high-SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. © 2023 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Rajesh Sharma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abidi; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Sangeet Adhikari; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Amir Anoushiravani; Ali Arash Anoushirvani; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Jalal Arabloo; Armin Aryannejad; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ashish D. Badiye; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Maciej Banach; Amadou Barrow; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Sima Besharat; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Tone Bjørge; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Daniela Calina; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Raja Chandra Chakinala; William C.S. Cho; Dinh-Toi Chu; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anna Danielewicz; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Saeid Doaei; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Debela Debela Ejeta; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Muhammed Elhadi; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Tahir Eyayu; Rana Ezzeddini; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Umar Farooque; Hossein Farrokhpour; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Hamed Fattahi; Nima Fattahi; Masood Fereidoonnezhad; Eduarda Fernandes; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Tamiru Getachew; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Giuseppe Gorini; Avirup Guha; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Shafiul Haque; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Farhad Islami; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Neeti Kapoor; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Amirali Karimi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Asma Kazemi; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Javad Khanali; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mahmoud Khodadost; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Ai Koyanagi; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Manoj Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Elvynna Leong; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Azeem Majeed; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Miquel Martorell; Sahar Masoudi; Prashant Mathur; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Saeed Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Zeinab Mokhtari; Mariam Molokhia; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Hae Sung Nam; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ehsan Nazemalhosseini-Mojarad; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Nurulamin M. Noor; Maryam Noori; Seyyed Mohammad Ali Noori; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Sokking Ong; Samuel M. Ostroff; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Reza Pakzad; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Renato B. Pereira; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Richard G. Pestell; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Akram Pourshams; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Sima Rafiei; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Vajiheh Ramezani-Doroh; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Sina Rashedi; Amirfarzan Rashidi; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Mandana Rastegar; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Gholamreza Roshandel; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Bahar Saberzadeh-Ardestani; Basema Saddik; Hossein Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Amir Salek Farrokhi; Amir Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Pouria Samadi; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Šekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Sayed Mohammad Shafiee; Zahra Shaghaghi; Saeed Shahabi; Elaheh Shaker; Maedeh Sharifian; Javad Sharifi-Rad; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Reza Shirkoohi; Parnian Shobeiri; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Guilherme Silva Julian; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Gholam Reza Sivandzadeh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Elnaz Tabibian; Majid Taheri; Yasaman Taheri Abkenar; Amir Taherkhani; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Bekele Tesfaye; Amir Tiyuri; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Mathilde Touvier; Bach Xuan Tran; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Massimiliano Veroux; Bay Vo; Theo Vos; Cong Wang; Ronny Westerman; Melat Woldemariam; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Mazyar Zahir; Iman Zare; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Mohammad Zoladi
Background: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990–2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408–868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00–2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682–537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02–1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3–23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6–28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5–14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6–14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7–320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2–313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9–80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5–73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8–71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0–37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6–34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6–34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation: The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Brittney S. Sheena; Lindsey Hiebert; Hannah Han; Helen Ippolito; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Amir Abdoli; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Mesafint Molla Adane; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bahman Ahadinezhad; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Muhammad Ashar Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Haya Altawalah; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Amir Anoushiravani; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Tahira Ashraf; Daniel Atlaw; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Sayna Bagheri; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Nastaran Barati; Amadou Barrow; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Shu Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Benjamin C. Cowie; Garland T. Culbreth; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Mohammed Gebre Dedefo; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Takele Gezahegn G. Demie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Meseret Derbew Molla; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mojtaba Didehdar; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Thomas M. Drake; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Hossein Farrokhpour; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Shilpa Gaidhane; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Kazem Ghaffari; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholami; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Aima Gilani; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Giuseppe Gorini; Yitayal Ayalew Goshu; Max G. Griswold; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Rabih Halwani; Saeed S. Hamid; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R. Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K. Tesfaye Kanko; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Junaid Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Amir M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Mahmoud Khodadost; Abdullah T. Khoja; Omid Khosravizadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; G. Anil Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Jiarui Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Platon D. Lopukhov; Joana A. Loureiro; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C. Matthews; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Ashraf Mohamadkhani; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Jalal Moludi; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maliheh Moradzadeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Sumaira Mubarik; Malaisamy Muniyandi; Christopher J.L. Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Che Henry Ngwa; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Alireza Rafiei; Sima Rafiei; Pavan Manibettu Raghuram; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Negar Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Chethan Sampath; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mohammed Shannawaz; Suchitra M. Shenoy; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amir Ali Sohrabpour; Suhang Song; Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Majid Taheri; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; Ahmad Tavakoli; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Belay Negash Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Habtamu Molla Tesfaw; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Maria Elena Tosti; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Indang Trihandini; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Adisu Birhanu Weldesenbet; Melat Woldemariam; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Mehdi Yaseri; Yigizie Yeshaw; Vahit Yiǧit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Leila Zaki; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Theo Vos; John W. Ward; M. Ashworth Dirac
Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of injuries, and burden attributable to injuries risk factors, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Negar Rezaei; Sina Azadnajafabad; Javad Khanali; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Dilaram Acharya; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Saira Afzal; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Sajjad Ahmad; Aqeel Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Haroon Ahmed; Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Hossein Akbarialiabad; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Shohreh Alian Samakkhah; Yousef Alimohamadi; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Hiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Sohrab Amiri; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Davood Anvari; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Muhammad Aqeel; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ashokan Arumugam; Umesh Raj Aryal; Malke Asaad; Saeed Asgary; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Atalel Fentahun F. Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Setognal Birara Aychiluhm; Alemu Degu Ayele; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Mainak Bardhan; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Alehegn Bekele; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Saeid Bitaraf; Archith Boloor; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Soufiane Boufous; Michael Brauer; Andrew M. Briggs; Julie Brown; Dana Bryazka; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Márcia Carvalho; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Wai Tong Chien; Abdulaal Chitheer; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Beniamino Cislaghi; Scott Richard Clark; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Patricia Cullen; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Rakhi Dandona; Gary L. Darmstadt; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Diego De Leo; Katie de Luca; Andreas K. Demetriades; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Belay Desye; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Frank J. Elgar; Islam Y. Elgendy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Habitu Birhan Eshetu; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Andre Faro; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Pietro Ferrara; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Yaseen Galali; Nasrin Galehdar; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Leta Adugna Geleta; Motuma Erena Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Tiffany K. Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; James C. Glasbey; Laszlo Göbölös; Kimiya Gohari; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Michal Grivna; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Bhawna Gupta; Brian J. Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Pawan Kumar Hamal; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Syed Emdadul Haque; Arief Hargono; Netanja I. Harlianto; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Yuta Hiraike; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Bellal Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Amir Human Hoveidaei; Guoqing Hu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Jagnoor Jagnoor; Haitham Jahrami; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Rajesh Kamath; Ashwin Kamath; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Samad Karkhah; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Joonas H. Kauppila; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Moien A.B. Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Gyu Ri Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Farzad Kompani; K.M. Marulasiddaiah Kondlahalli Shivakumar; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Estie Kruger; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nithin Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Paolo Lauriola; Long Khanh Dao Le; Janet L. Leasher; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Andrew Tiyamike Makhiringa Likaka; Stephen S. Lim; Shai Linn; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahadeshwara Prasad; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagón-Rojas; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Yosef Manla; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Elezebeth Mathews; Pallab K. Maulik; Enkeleint A. Mechili; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Tomasz Miazgowski; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Soheil Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Maryam Moradi; Shane Douglas Morrison; Sumaira Mubarik; Efren Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf Fawzy Nabhan; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Zuhair S. Natto; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Evangelia Nena; Samata Nepal; Haruna Asura Nggada; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Oh In-Hwan; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Adeolu Olufunso Oladunjoye; Andrew T. Olagunju; Diriba Dereje Olana; Ahmed Omar Bali; Adrian Otoiu; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh Padukudru P A; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Park Eun-Kee; Jay Patel; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Amy E. Peden; Paolo Pedersini; Marcos Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Tom Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Suzanne Polinder; Ibrahim Qattea; Ata Rafiee; Pankaja Raghav; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Sheena Ramazanu; Usha Rani; Temam Beshir Raru; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Prateek Rastogi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Reza Rawassizadeh; Maryam Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Muhammad Riaz; Jennifer Rickard; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Bedanta Roy; S. Manjula; S.N. Chandan; Siamak Sabour; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Sare Safi; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Payman Salamati; Juan Sanabria; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Yaser Sarikhani; Arash Sarveazad; Davide Sattin; Ganesh Kumar Saya; David C. Schwebel; Binyam Tariku Seboka; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Pritik A. Shah; Ataollah Shahbandi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Nigussie Tadesse Sharew; Azam Sharifi; Neeraj Sharma; Vishal Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Ali Sheidaei; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jiabin Shen; Adithi Shetty; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Roman Shrestha; Negussie Boti Sidamo; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Wudneh Simegn; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; Bogdan Socea; Yonatan Solomon; Yi Song; Houman Sotoudeh; Raul A.R. C. Sousa; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Dan J. Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mark A. Stokes; Narayan Subedi; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; M.D. Tariqujjaman; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nathan Y. Tat; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Rekha Thapar; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Derara Girma Tufa; Sana Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Gizachew Tadesse Wassie; Taweewat Wiangkham; Caroline Wilkerson; Asrat Arja Wolde; Hong Xiao; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Leila Zaki; Michael Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Bagher Larijani; Farshad Farzadfar
Objectives: In this study, the trends and current situation of the injury burden as well as attributable burden to injury risk factors at global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 are presented. Study design: To assess the attributable burden of injury risk factors, the data of interest on data sources were retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) and analyzed. Methods: Cause-specific death from injuries was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model in the GBD 2019. The burden attributable to each injury risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) was used to evaluate countries’ developmental status. Results: Globally, there were 713.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 663.8 to 766.9) injuries incidence and 4.3 million (UI: 3.9 to 4.6) deaths caused by injuries in 2019. There was an inverse relationship between age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate and SDI quintiles in 2019. Overall, low bone mineral density was the leading risk factor of injury deaths in 2019, with a contribution of 10.5% (UI: 9.0 to 11.6) of total injuries and age-standardized deaths, followed by occupational risks (7.0% [UI: 6.3–7.9]) and alcohol use (6.8% [UI: 5.2 to 8.5]). Conclusion: Various risks were responsible for the imposed burden of injuries. This study highlighted the small but persistent share of injuries in the global burden of diseases and injuries to provide beneficial data to produce proper policies to reach an effective global injury prevention plan. © 2024
Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Manuela L Ferreira; Katie De Luca; Lydia M Haile; Jaimie D Steinmetz; Garland T Culbreth; Marita Cross; Jacek A Kopec; Paulo H Ferreira; Fiona M Blyth; Rachelle Buchbinder; Jan Hartvigsen; Ai-Min Wu; Saeid Safiri; Anthony D Woolf; Gary S Collins; Kanyin Liane Ong; Stein Emil Vollset; Amanda E Smith; Jessica A Cruz; Kai Glenn Fukutaki; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Ahmed Abdelalim; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Ali Ahmadi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Abayneh Tadesse Alamer; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Yousef Alimohamadi; Mansour Abdullah Alshehri; Mohammed Mansour Alshehri; Hosam Alzahrani; Saeed Amini; Sohrab Amiri; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Judie Arulappan; Ashokan Arumugam; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Nefsu Awoke; Sina Azadnajafabad; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Amadou Barrow; Akbar Barzegar; Lindsay M Bearne; Isabela M Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Bharti Bhandari Bhandari; Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Javier Brazo-Sayavera; Andrew M Briggs; Chao Cao; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Flavia M Cicuttini; Benjamin Clarsen; Sarah Cuschieri; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Azizallah Dehghan; Takele Gezahegn G Demie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Hoa Thi Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Michael Ekholuenetale; Muhammed Elhadi; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Shahriar Faghani; Jawad Fares; Ali Fatehizadeh; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Balasankar Ganesan; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Motuma Erena Getachew; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Tiffany K Gill; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Bhawna Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Pawan Kumar Hamal; Asif Hanif; Netanja I Harlianto; Hamidreza Hasani; Simon I Hay; Jeffrey J Hebert; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Ravi Prakash Jha; Har Ashish Jindal; Jost B Jonas; Gebisa Guyasa Kabito; Himal Kandel; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Vikash Ranjan Keshri; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Jobair Khan; Moien A B Khan; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Jitka Klugarová; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Ai Koyanagi; G Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Narges Malih; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Ted R Miller; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Maryam Mobarakabadi; Yousef Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Christopher J L Murray; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Javad Nazari; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Subas Neupane; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Ali Nowroozi; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Emad Omer; Abderrahim Oulhaj; Mayowa O Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Kee Park; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Jeevan Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Mohammadreza Pourahmadi; Amir Radfar; Shahram Rahimi-Dehgolan; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Chythra R Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Zahed Rezaei; Leonardo Roever; Guilherme De Andrade Ruela; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Francesco Sanmarchi; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Saeed Shahabi; Shayan Shahrokhi; Elaheh Shaker; Mohammad Bagher Shamsi; Mohammed Shannawaz; Saurab Sharma; Maryam Shaygan; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jeevan K Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Siddharudha Shivalli; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Helen Slater; Marco Solmi; Ranjani Somayaji; Ker-Kan Tan; Rekha Thapar; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Rohollah Valizadeh; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yuan-Pang Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Iman Zare; Armin Zarrintan; Mohammad Zoladl; Theo Vos; Lyn M March
Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10–24 years, 1950–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Joseph L. Ward; Peter S Azzopardi; Kate Louise Francis; John S Santelli; Vegard Skirbekk; Susan M Sawyer; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Ali H Mokdad; Simon I Hay; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R M Abrigo; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Abdelrahman I Abushouk; Oladimeji M Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M Advani; Khashayar Afshari; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Anwar E Ahmed; Budi Aji; Blessing Akombi-Inyang; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Samar Al-Hajj; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A Almasri; Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Khalid A Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Saeed Amini; Arya Aminorroaya; Arianna Maever L Amit; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Fereshteh Ansari; Iman Ansari; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Davood Anvari; Razique Anwer; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Johan Ärnlöv; Malke Asaad; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Ali A Asadi-Pooya; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Elvis Korku Avenyo; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Mohammad Hossein Bakhshaei; Shankar M Bakkannavar; MacIej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Miguel A Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Arielle Wilder Bell; Michelle L Bell; Corina Benjet; Isabela M Bensenor; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Adam E Berman; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Tesega Tesega Mengistu Birhanu; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Rohan Borschmann; Soufiane Boufous; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Gabrielle B Britton; Richard A Burns; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J Carrero; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Joht Singh Chandan; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sarika Chaturvedi; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M Cicuttini; Traian Vasile Constantin; Vera Marisa Costa; Saad M A Dahlawi; Haijiang Dai; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Assefa Desalew; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Alireza Didarloo; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Chirag P Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Kerrie E Doyle; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Sanam Ebtehaj; David Edvardsson; Maha El Tantawi; Islam Y Elgendy; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Aisha Elsharkawy; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Sadaf Esteghamati; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Valery L Feigin; Tomas Y Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L Fisher; Nataliya A Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Silvano Gallus; Teshome Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Leake Gebremeskel; Assefa Ayalew Gebreslassie; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Elena V Gnedovskaya; Myron Anthony Godinho; Mahaveer Golechha; Srinivas Goli; Philimon N Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Michal Grivna; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Teklehaimanot Gereziher Haile; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J Hall; Randah R Hamadeh; Kanaan Hamagharib Abdullah; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Asif Hanif; Graeme J Hankey; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hung Chak Ho; Michael K Hole; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Tanvir M Huda; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Nirun Intarut; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M Mofizul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Rebecca Q Ivers; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S Ji; Jost B Jonas; Kelly M Jones; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Petur B Juliusson; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Andr Karch; Salah Eddin Karimi; Supreet Kaur; Gbenga A Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T Khoja; Christian Kieling; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Ali Koolivand; Soewarta Kosen; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S Lassi; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; James Leigh; Matilde Leonardi; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Bingyu Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A Lotufo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ralph Maddison; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mokhtar Mahdavi Mahdavi; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A Mamun; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Gabriel Martinez; Jose Martinez-Raga; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Amanda J Mason-Jones; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K Maulik; John J McGrath; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Fereshteh Mehri; Peter T N Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Babak Moazen; Dara K Mohammad; Shadieh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Noushin Mohammadifard; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Moses K Muriithi; Christopher J L Murray; Saravanan Muthupandian; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Vinod C Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Diep Ngoc Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Jing Nie; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A Nnaji; Shuhei Nomura; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Morteza Oladnabi; Andrew T Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Muktar Omer Omer; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Adrian Otoiu; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa O Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Carlo Irwin Able Panelo; Eun-Kee Park; Scott B Patten; Amy E Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K Peprah; Jeevan Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R Phillips; Michael A Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Maarten J Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Akram Pourshams; Sergio I Prada; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Hasan Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Jennifer Rickard; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gregory A Roth; Enrico Rubagotti; Susan Fred Rumisha; Godfrey M Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Perminder S Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; S Mohammad Sajadi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Arash Sarveazad; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Davide Sattin; Deepak Saxena; Sonia Saxena; Silvia Schiavolin; David C Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Feng Sha; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Saeed Shakiba; MohammadBagher Shamsi; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; B Suresh Kumar Shetty; Peilin Shi; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Biagio Simonetti; Jasvinder A Singh; Virendra Singh; Abiy H Sinke; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Helen Slater; Emma U R Smith; Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh; Eugene Sobngwi; Amin Soheili; Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N Soyiri; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Dan J Stein; Mark A Stokes; Agus Sudaryanto; Iyad Sultan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Amir Taherkhani; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Md Ismail Tareque; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nihal Thomas; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara S Travillian; Alexander C Tsai; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Riaz Uddin; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Paul J Villeneuve; Francesco S Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Theo Vos; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yafeng Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Ai-Min Wu; Chenkai Wu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Deniz Yuce; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hadi Zarafshan; Ahmad Zarei; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Cong Zhu; George C Patton; Russell M Viner
Background: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10–24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10–24 years by age group (10–14 years, 15–19 years, and 20–24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10–24 years with that in children aged 0–9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10–24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). Findings: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39–1·59) worldwide in people aged 10–24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10–14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15–19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1–4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1–4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0–24 years that occurred in people aged 10–24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. Interpretation: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10–24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2021) Katherine R. Paulson; Aruna M. Kamath; Tahiya Alam; Kelly Bienhoff; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Jaffar Abbas; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Aishatu L. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Adeyinka Emmanuel Adegbosin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Jose C. Adsuar; Khashayar Afshari; Mohammad Aghaali; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Oluwaseun Oladapo Akinyemi; Addis Aklilu; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Tilahun Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. 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Szeto; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Amir Taherkhani; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Md Ismail Tareque; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Musliu Adetola Tolani; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Giorgos Tsapparellas; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Riaz Uddin; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Madhur Verma; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yohannes Dibaba Wado; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Yanping Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Paul Ward; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Lauren B. Wilner; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Ai-Min Wu; Chenkai Wu; Yang Xie; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Srikanth Yandrapalli; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Chuanhua Yu; Sifat Shahana Yusuf; Syed Saoud Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Haidong Wang; Nicholas J. Kassebaum
Background: Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival. Methods: We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index. Findings: Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3–74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2–41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8–29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3–19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05–10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27–6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53–4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06–2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71–0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27–1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35–2·58; 37% [95% UI 32–43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier. Interpretation: Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–18: a geospatial modelling study
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Joseph Jon Frostad; QuynhAnh P. Nguyen; Mathew M. Baumann; Brigette F. Blacker; Laurie B. Marczak; Aniruddha Deshpande; Kirsten E. Wiens; Kate E. LeGrand; Kimberly B. Johnson; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Hassan Abolhassani; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R. M. Abrigo; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Victor Adekanmbi; Anurag Agrawal; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Ziyad Al-Aly; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Vahid Alipour; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Saeed Amini; Fatemeh Amiri; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Marcel Ausloos; Getinet Ayano; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Michelle L. Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Somayeh Bohlouli; Soufiane Boufous; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Dejana Braithwaite; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Ester Cerin; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Sarika Chaturvedi; Simiao Chen; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Jai K. Das; Aditya Prasad Dash; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Sagnik Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Fariba Dorostkar; Leila Doshmangir; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ferry Efendi; Maha El Tantawi; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ibtihal Fadhil; Nazir Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Davide Guido; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Randah R. Hamadeh; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Jalil Jaafari; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Ravi Prakash Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Naser Kamyari; Tanuj Kanchan; Umesh Kapil; Neeti Kapoor; Gbenga A. Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Saleh Khader; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Luke D. Knibbs; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Faris Hasan Lami; Qing Lan; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H. Lee; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Daiane Borges Machado; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mina Maheri; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Natalie Maria Martinez; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Benjamin K. Mayala; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Abbas Mosapour; Simin Mouodi; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Sandra B. Munro; Christopher J. L. Murray; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Sanjeev Nair; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Bogdan Oancea; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Hai Quang Pham; Thomas Pilgrim; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J. Postma; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Fakher Rahim; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Sowmya J. Rao; Davide Rasella; Prateek Rastogi; Goura Kishor Rath; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Jennifer Rickard; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Morteza Rostamian; Enrico Rubagotti; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; David C. Schwebel; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A. Shaheen; Izza Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammed Shannawaz; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Soraya Siabani; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; Balbir Bagicha Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Leo Stockfelt; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Amir Taherkhani; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Saif Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Santosh Varughese; Francesco S. Violante; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Catherine A. Welgan; Andrea Werdecker; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Chuanhua Yu; Yong Yu; Sojib Bin Zaman; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Michael Brauer; Simon I. Hay; Robert C. Reiner
Background: More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels. Methods: We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution. Findings: Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000–257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution. Interpretation: Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-17
(Elsevier Ltd, 2020) Kirsten E. Wiens; Paulina A. Lindstedt; Brigette F. Blacker; Kimberly B. Johnson; Mathew M. Baumann; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Ahmed Abualhasan; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Maryam Adabi; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mohsen Afarideh; Sohail Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Anwar E. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Rushdia Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Genet Melak Alamene; Turki M. Alanzi; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Mina Anjomshoa; Amir Anoushiravani; Fereshteh Ansari; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Benny Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Jalal Arabloo; Hany Mohamed Amin Aref; Olatunde Aremu; Bahram Armoon; Amit Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Afsaneh Arzani; Mehran Asadi-Aliabadi; Hagos Tasew Atalay; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Seyyede Masoume Athari; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Samad Azari; Peter S. Azzopardi; Ebrahim Babaee; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Alaa Badawi; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Huda Basaleem; Sanjay Basu; Vo Dinh Bay; Mohsen Bayati; Estifanos Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Mahya Beheshti; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Yaschilal Muche Belayneh; Michelle L. Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Dessalegn Ajema Berbada; Robert S. Bernstein; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Binyam Minuye Birihane; Raaj Kishore Biswas; Somayeh Bohlouli; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle B. Britton; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Franz Castro; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Pranab Chatterjee; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Tesfaye Yitna Chichiabellu; Ken Lee Chin; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Natalie Maria Cormier; Vera Marisa Costa; Carlos Culquichicon; Matiwos Soboka Daba; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Aditya Prasad Dash; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Assefa Desalew; Aniruddha Deshpande; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Preeti Dhillon; Meghnath Dhimal; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Isaac Oluwafemi Dipeolu; Shirin Djalalinia; Kerrie E. Doyle; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Nevine El Nahas; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Teshome Bekele Elema; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Hajer Elkout; Aisha Elsharkawy; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Aklilu Endalamaw; Daniel Adane Endalew; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Arash Etemadi; Oluchi Ezekannagha; Mohammad Fareed; Roghiyeh Faridnia; Farshad Farzadfar; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Valery L. Feigin; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Teshome Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Pramesh Raj Ghimire; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Nelson G.M. Gomes; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Harish Chander Gugnani; Davide Guido; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Dessalegn H. Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Hamidreza Haririan; Ninuk Hariyani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; Edris Hasanpoor; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Hagos Degefa De Hidru; Thomas R. Hird; Chi Linh Hoang; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Mohammad Hoseini; Naznin Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Hasan Imani-Nasab; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Neda Izadi; Anelisa Jaca; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Amir Jalali; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Hamed Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Mohd Anisul Karim; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari Surendra Karki; Amir Kasaeian; Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun; Yawukal Chane Kasahun; Habtamu Kebebe Kasaye; Gebrehiwot G. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Andre Pascal Kengne; Daniel Bekele Ketema; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Rovshan Khalilov; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir M. Khater; Mona M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mohammad Khazaei; Salman Khazaei; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Ali Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; K.M. Shivakumar; Sonali Kochhar; Tufa Kolola; Hamidreza Komaki; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Sheetal D. Lad; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Felix Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Van Charles Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Avula Laxmaiah; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Mostafa Leili; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Aubrey J. Levine; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Simin Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Joshua Longbottom; Jaifred Christian F. Lopez; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; DR. Mahadeshwara Prasad; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan B. Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Narendar Dawani Dawanu Manohar; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Gabriel Martinez; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Benjamin K. Mayala; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Kala M. Mehta; Tefera Chane Mekonnen; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Seid Tiku Mereta; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Dara K. Mohammad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Noushin Mohammadifard; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Catrin E. 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Background: Oral rehydration solution (ORS) is a form of oral rehydration therapy (ORT) for diarrhoea that has the potential to drastically reduce child mortality; yet, according to UNICEF estimates, less than half of children younger than 5 years with diarrhoea in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) received ORS in 2016. A variety of recommended home fluids (RHF) exist as alternative forms of ORT; however, it is unclear whether RHF prevent child mortality. Previous studies have shown considerable variation between countries in ORS and RHF use, but subnational variation is unknown. This study aims to produce high-resolution geospatial estimates of relative and absolute coverage of ORS, RHF, and ORT (use of either ORS or RHF) in LMICs. Methods: We used a Bayesian geostatistical model including 15 spatial covariates and data from 385 household surveys across 94 LMICs to estimate annual proportions of children younger than 5 years of age with diarrhoea who received ORS or RHF (or both) on continuous continent-wide surfaces in 2000–17, and aggregated results to policy-relevant administrative units. Additionally, we analysed geographical inequality in coverage across administrative units and estimated the number of diarrhoeal deaths averted by increased coverage over the study period. Uncertainty in the mean coverage estimates was calculated by taking 250 draws from the posterior joint distribution of the model and creating uncertainty intervals (UIs) with the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of those 250 draws. Findings: While ORS use among children with diarrhoea increased in some countries from 2000 to 2017, coverage remained below 50% in the majority (62·6%; 12 417 of 19 823) of second administrative-level units and an estimated 6 519 000 children (95% UI 5 254 000–7 733 000) with diarrhoea were not treated with any form of ORT in 2017. Increases in ORS use corresponded with declines in RHF in many locations, resulting in relatively constant overall ORT coverage from 2000 to 2017. Although ORS was uniformly distributed subnationally in some countries, within-country geographical inequalities persisted in others; 11 countries had at least a 50% difference in one of their units compared with the country mean. Increases in ORS use over time were correlated with declines in RHF use and in diarrhoeal mortality in many locations, and an estimated 52 230 diarrhoeal deaths (36 910–68 860) were averted by scaling up of ORS coverage between 2000 and 2017. Finally, we identified key subnational areas in Colombia, Nigeria, and Sudan as examples of where diarrhoeal mortality remains higher than average, while ORS coverage remains lower than average. Interpretation: To our knowledge, this study is the first to produce and map subnational estimates of ORS, RHF, and ORT coverage and attributable child diarrhoeal deaths across LMICs from 2000 to 2017, allowing for tracking progress over time. Our novel results, combined with detailed subnational estimates of diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality, can support subnational needs assessments aimed at furthering policy makers' understanding of within-country disparities. Over 50 years after the discovery that led to this simple, cheap, and life-saving therapy, large gains in reducing mortality could still be made by reducing geographical inequalities in ORS coverage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring routine childhood vaccination coverage in 204 countries and territories, 1980–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020, Release 1
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Enany; A.T. Olagunju; P.S. Faris; B. Tsegaye; I. Filip; F. Fischer; M.R. Francis; M.R. Francis; T. Fukumoto; X. Liu; A.M. Saad; S. Gaidhane; T. Garg; Y. Tekalegn; S. Mohammed; T. Gebre; K. Ghadiri; K. Ghadiri; M. Ghafourifard; M. Moghadaszadeh; S. Gilani; S. Gilani; P.D. Lopukhov; M. Golechha; S.V. Gopalani; H. Goudarzi; M.B. Ahmed; H. Goudarzi; Y. Guo; S. Li; Y. Guo; V. Gupta; V.K. Gupta; R.A. Gutiérrez; A. Hargono Dr; S. Hassan; S. Hassan; G. Heidari; S. Islam; V. Hsieh; J. Huang; C. Zhong; A. Humayun; R. Hussain; A. Makki; J. Noubiap; U. Iqbal; S.N. Irvani; S. Islam; R. Kalhor; R. Kalhor; Z. Kamal; Z. Kamal; A. Karch; J. Khan; G. Kim; M. Kim; M. Kim; Y. Kim; S. Kosen; A. Kumar; A. Kwarteng; C. La Vecchia; I. Landires; V. Nuñez-Samudio; I. Landires; S. Lasrado; M. Levi; M. Levi; C.E. Moore; X. Liu; J. Sanabria; A. Thavamani; P.C. Matthews; J.C. Medina; J.C. Medina; W. Mendoza; R.G. Menezes; M.K. Mesregah; T. Mestrovic; M. Mohammadi; A. Mohammed; S. Mohammed; A. Mohapatra; M. Molokhia; E. Traini; H. Mirzaei; M. Zamanian; S.B. Munro; N. Otstavnov; M. Naveed; I. Negoi; T.H. Nguyen; T.H. Nguyen; B.O. Olakunde; M. Pathak; S. Pawar; M. Pirestani; M. Rabiee; M. Rahman; S. Rahmawaty; A. Rajesh; S. Rawaf; S. Rawaf; M. Saeb; U. Saeed; U. Saeed; M. Samaei; J. Sanabria; F. Sanmarchi; M. Sawhney; A. Seidu; A. Seidu; M.A. Shaikh; M. Shigematsu; A. Soheili; K. Tan; B. Thakur; A. Thavamani; E. Traini; M. Tripathi; S. Ullah; S. Ullah; B. Vo; G.T. Vu; A.S. Winkler; A.S. Winkler; C. Yu; D. Yuce
Background: Measuring routine childhood vaccination is crucial to inform global vaccine policies and programme implementation, and to track progress towards targets set by the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP) and Immunization Agenda 2030. Robust estimates of routine vaccine coverage are needed to identify past successes and persistent vulnerabilities. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020, Release 1, we did a systematic analysis of global, regional, and national vaccine coverage trends using a statistical framework, by vaccine and over time. Methods: For this analysis we collated 55 326 country-specific, cohort-specific, year-specific, vaccine-specific, and dose-specific observations of routine childhood vaccination coverage between 1980 and 2019. Using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, we produced location-specific and year-specific estimates of 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators for 204 countries and territories from 1980 to 2019, adjusting for biases in country-reported data and reflecting reported stockouts and supply disruptions. We analysed global and regional trends in coverage and numbers of zero-dose children (defined as those who never received a diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis [DTP] vaccine dose), progress towards GVAP targets, and the relationship between vaccine coverage and sociodemographic development. Findings: By 2019, global coverage of third-dose DTP (DTP3; 81·6% [95% uncertainty interval 80·4–82·7]) more than doubled from levels estimated in 1980 (39·9% [37·5–42·1]), as did global coverage of the first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1; from 38·5% [35·4–41·3] in 1980 to 83·6% [82·3–84·8] in 2019). Third-dose polio vaccine (Pol3) coverage also increased, from 42·6% (41·4–44·1) in 1980 to 79·8% (78·4–81·1) in 2019, and global coverage of newer vaccines increased rapidly between 2000 and 2019. The global number of zero-dose children fell by nearly 75% between 1980 and 2019, from 56·8 million (52·6–60·9) to 14·5 million (13·4–15·9). However, over the past decade, global vaccine coverage broadly plateaued; 94 countries and territories recorded decreasing DTP3 coverage since 2010. Only 11 countries and territories were estimated to have reached the national GVAP target of at least 90% coverage for all assessed vaccines in 2019. Interpretation: After achieving large gains in childhood vaccine coverage worldwide, in much of the world this progress was stalled or reversed from 2010 to 2019. These findings underscore the importance of revisiting routine immunisation strategies and programmatic approaches, recentring service delivery around equity and underserved populations. Strengthening vaccine data and monitoring systems is crucial to these pursuits, now and through to 2030, to ensure that all children have access to, and can benefit from, lifesaving vaccines. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Dana Bryazka; Marissa B. Reitsma; Max G. Griswold; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Mohammad Abdollahi; Abu Yousuf Md. Abdullah; E.S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Giovanni Addolorato; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Kishor Adhikari; Sangeet Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Wubetu Yimam Agegnehu; Manik Aggarwal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Md.Zakiul Alam; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Yousef Alimohamadi; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Kasim Allel; Jordi Alonso; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Firehiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Sohrab Amiri; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Jalal Arabloo; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Zahra Aryan; Malke Asaad; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Prince Atorkey; Alok Atreya; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Olatunde O. Ayinde; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Awraris Hailu Balchut Bilchut; T.W. Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Elena A. Elena Blokhina; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Andre R. Brunoni; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Rosario Cárdenas; Andre F. Carvalho; Márcia Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Giulio Castelpietra; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh-Toi Chu; Nandita Chudal; Sheng-Chia Chung; Chuchu Churko; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Simona Costanzo; Richard G. Cowden; Michael H. Criqui; Natália Cruz-Martins; Garland T. Culbreth; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Beniam Darge Daniel; Anna Danielewicz; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Jacyra Azevedo Paiva de Araujo; Antonio Reis De Sá; Sisay Abebe Debela; Azizallah Dehghan; Andreas K. Demetriades; Meseret Derbew Molla; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Fariba Dorostkar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Bereket Duko; Bruce B. Duncan; Kristina Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Frank J. Elgar; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Azin Etemadimanesh; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Fatemeh Farahmand; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Valery L. Feigin; Rachel Feldman; Xiaoqi Feng; Zinabu Fentaw; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Fabio Galvano; Balasankar Ganesan; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Tadele Regasa Gemechu; Lemma Getacher; Motuma Erena Getachew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Asmare Getie; Amir Ghaderi; Mansour Ghafourifard; Alireza Ghajar; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Lilian A. Ghandour; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Sherief Ghozy; Franklin N. Glozah; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Justyna Godos; Amit Goel; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Mohamad Golitaleb; Felix Greaves; Michal Grivna; Giuseppe Grosso; Temesgen Worku Gudayu; Bhawna Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Brian J. Hall; Rabih Halwani; Tiilahun Beyene Handiso; Graeme J. Hankey; Sanam Hariri; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Ramesh Holla; Md. Mahbub Hossain; Sahadat Hossain; Seyed Kianoosh Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Lalu Muhammad Irham; M. Mofizul Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Hiroyasu Iso; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Louis Jacob; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Zahra Jamalpoor; Elham Jamshidi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Umesh Jayarajah; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Seyed Ali Jeddi; Alelign Tasew Jema; Ravi Prakash Jha; Har Ashish Jindal; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Robel Hussen Kabthymer; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Girum Gebremeskel Kanno; Neeti Kapoor; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Salah Eddin Karimi; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Imteyaz A. Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Hanna Kim; Jihee Kim; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Mika Kivimäki; Vitalii Klymchuk; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Ben Lacey; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Jerrald Lau; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Platon D. Lopukhov; Stefan Lorkowski; Rafael Lozano; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Farzan Madadizadeh; Áurea M. Madureira-Carvalho; Soleiman Mahjoub; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Rashidul Alam Mahumud; Alaa Makki; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Narayana Manjunatha; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Jose Martinez-Raga; Francisco A. Martinez-Villa; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mahsa Mayeli; John J. McGrath; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G. Menezes; Gert B.M. Mensink; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Atte Meretoja; Bedasa Taye Merga; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Antonio Mirijello; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Maryam Mobarakabadi; Marcello Moccia; Yousef Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Yousef Moradi; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Sumaira Mubarik; Erin C. Mullany; Beemnet Tekabe Mulugeta; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Christopher J.L. Murray; Julius C. Mwita; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Samata Nepal; Sudan Prasad Prasad Neupane; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Yeshambel T. Nigatu; Ali Nowroozi; Khan M. Nuruzzaman; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Ashok Pandey; Shahina Pardhan; Tarang Parekh; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Jay Patel; Siddhartha Pati; George C. Patton; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Amy E. Peden; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Evgenii Plotnikov; Pranil Man Singh Pradhan; Akila Prashant; Jianchao Quan; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Md.Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Drona Prakash Rasali; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez; Gregory A. Roth; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Reihaneh Sadeghian; Umar Saeed; Farhad Saeedi; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Abdallah M. Samy; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Yaser Sarikhani; Brijesh Sathian; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Mehdi Sayyah; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Michaël Schwarzinger; David C. Schwebel; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Sarvenaz Shahin; Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi; Shayan Shahrokhi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Damtew Solomon Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Velizar Shivarov; Parnian Shobeiri; Roman Shrestha; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Natacha Torres da Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; Marco Solmi; Yonatan Solomon; Suhang Song; Yimeng Song; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Dan J. Stein; Sonu Hangma Subba; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Majid Taheri; Ker-Kan Tan; Minale Tareke; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Worku Animaw Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nikhil Kenny Thomas; Chalachew Tiruneh; Jovana Todorovic; Marco Torrado; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Sergi Trias-Llimós; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Alireza Vakilian; Rohollah Valizadeh; Mehdi Varmaghani; Shoban Babu Varthya; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Theo Vos; Birhanu Wagaye; Yasir Waheed; Mandaras Tariku Walde; Cong Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Abate Dargie Wubetu; Suowen Xu; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lin Yang; Gesila Endashaw E. Yesera; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yiğit; Ayenew Engida Yimaw; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Siddhesh Zadey; Mazyar Zahir; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zmaili; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Emmanuela Gakidou
Background: The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods: For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings: The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3–65·4) were aged 15–39 years and 76·9% (73·0–81·3) were male. Interpretation: There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Elysia M. Alvarez; Lisa M. Force; Rixing Xu; Kelly Compton; Dan Lu; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; James D. Harvey; Alyssa Pennini; Frances E. Dean; Weijia Fu; Martina T. Vargas; Theresa H. M. Keegan; Hany Ariffin; Ronald D. Barr; Yana Arturovna Erdomaeva; D. Sanjeeva Gunasekera; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Tyler G. Ketterl; Tezer Kutluk; Marcio Henrique Malogolowkin; Prashant Mathur; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Lynn Ann Gloeckler Ries; Carlos Rodriguez-Galindo; Garik Barisovich Sagoyan; Iyad Sultan; Behzad Abbasi; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Haimanot Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Hassan Abolhassani; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Juan Manuel Acuna; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bahman Ahadinezhad; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Wajeeha Aiman; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Abdulhadi A. AlAmodi; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Yosef Alemayehu; Fadwa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sunitha Alluri; Nihad A. Almasri; Sadeq Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Davood Anvari; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Muhammad Arshad; Judie Arulappan; Armin Aryannejad; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Mohammad Reza Atashzar; Prince Atorkey; Alok Atreya; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Alemu Degu Ayele; Solomon Shitu Ayen; Mohammed A. Azab; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Saeed Bahadory; Jianjun Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Huda Basaleem; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Masoud Behzadifar; Niguss Cherie Bekele; Rebuma Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Setognal Birara; Tone Bjørge; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Norma B. Bulamu; Katrin Burkart; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Ferrán Catalá-López; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Prachi P. Chavan; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Omar B. Da; Omid Dadras; Saad M. A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Takele Gezahegn G. Demie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Zeleke Geto Demissie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Meseret Derbew Molla; Rupak Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Mojtaba Didehdar; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Saeid Doaei; Fariba Dorostkar; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Thomas M. Drake; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Hassan El-Abid; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Iffat Elbarazi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Jawad Fares; Umar Farooque; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Wafa Fatima; José Miguel P. Ferreira De Oliveira; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Piyada Gaewkhiew; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Tamiru Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Fariba Ghassemi; Nermin Ghith; Ali Gholami; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Avirup Guha; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Alemayehu Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Mitiku Teshome Hambisa; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Shafiul Haque; Sanam Hariri; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S M. Mahmudul Hasan; Seyedeh Melika Hashemi; Treska S. Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Sultan H. Hebo; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Ali Hosseinzadeh; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Kaire Innos; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Roksana Janghorban; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Leila R. Kalankesh; Feroze Kaliyadan; Zul Kamal; Ashwin Kamath; Himal Kandel; Sitanshu Sekhar Kar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Amirali Karimi; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Joonas H. Kauppila; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Andre Pascal Kengne; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Nastaran Khalili; Neda Khalili; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A. B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Omid Khosravizadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Roba Khundkar; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Carlo La Vecchia; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Bingyu Li; Jiarui Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Stany W. Lobo; Joana A. Loureiro; Alessandra Lugo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Morteza Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Shilpa Male; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohammed A. Mamun; Navid Manafi; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Clara N. Matei; Manu Raj Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Ravi Mehrotra; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Alemu Basazin Mingude; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. 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Background: In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15–39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods: Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15–39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings: There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11–1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000–425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15–39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5–65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8–57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9–15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6–14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9–25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9–3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4–98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation: Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Khanh Bao Tran; Justin J. Lang; Kelly Compton; Rixing Xu; Alistair R. Acheson; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Louise Penberthy; Amirali Aali; Qamar Abbas; Behzad Abbasi; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Ahmed Abdelwahab Abdelwahab; Gholamreza Abdoli; Hanan Abdulkadir Abdulkadir; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Abdorrahim Absalan; Yonas Derso Abtew; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Basavaprabhu Achappa; Juan Manuel Acuna; Daniel Addison; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Miracle Ayomikun Adesina; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Sumia Afrin; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Manik Aggarwal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Rizwan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Wajeeha Aiman; Marjan Ajami; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Addis Aklilu; Maxwell Akonde; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Saleh Ali Alessy; Abdelazeem M. Algammal; Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Nivaldo Alonso; Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Rami H. Hani Al-Rifai; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Ala’a B. Al-Tammemi; Haya Altawalah; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Firehiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi; Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq; Hubert Amu; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Robert Ancuceanu; Jason A. Anderson; Yaregal Animut Animut; Amir Anoushiravani; Ali Arash Anoushirvani; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Benny Antony; Maxwell Hubert Antwi; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Razique Anwer; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Hany Ariffin; Timur Aripov; Muhammad Arshad; Al Artaman; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Armin Aryannejad; Malke Asaad; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Reza Assadi; Mohammad Athar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Tewachew Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Solomon Shitu Ayen; Davood Azadi; Sina Azadnajafabad; Saber Azami-Aghdash; Melkalem Mamuye Azanaw; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y.Y. Azzam; Amirhesam Babajani; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Nader Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Ahad Bakhtiari; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Maciej Banach; Indrajit Banerjee; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Nasir Z. Bashir; Azadeh Bashiri; Saurav Basu; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Aeysha Begum; Alehegn Bekele Bekele; Alemayehu Sayih Belay; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Luis Belo; Habib Benzian; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Amiel Nazer C. Bermudez; Eduardo Bernabe; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Bharti Bhandari Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Soumitra S. Bhuyan; Sadia Bibi; Awraris Hailu Bilchut; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Antonio Biondi; Mesfin Geremaw Birega Birega; Habitu Eshetu Birhan; Tone Bjørge; Oleg Blyuss; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Michael Brauer; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Christina Maree Buchanan; Norma B. Bulamu; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Márcia Carvalho; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; William C.S. Cho; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Aaron J. Cohen; Joao Conde; Sandra Cortés; Vera Marisa Costa; Natália Cruz-Martins; Garland T. Culbreth; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Anna Danielewicz; An Thi Minh Dao; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Elham Davtalab Esmaeili; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Azizallah Dehghan; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Afshin Derakhshani; Meseret Derbew Molla; Diriba Dereje; Kalkidan Solomon Deribe; Rupak Desai; Markos Desalegn Desalegn; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Samuel Abebe A. Dessalegni; Gashaw Dessie; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Shilpi Gupta Dixit; Saeid Doaei; Linh Phuong Doan; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Wendel Mombaque dos Santos; Tim Robert Driscoll; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Sareh Edalati; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Donatus U. Ekwueme; Maha El Tantawi; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Iffat Elbarazi; Hesham Elghazaly; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Tegegne Eshetu; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Juan Espinosa-Montero; Farshid Etaee; Azin Etemadimanesh; Tahir Eyayu; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Saman Fahimi; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Jawad Fares; Abbas Farmany; Umar Farooque; Hossein Farrokhpour; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Wafa Fatima; Hamed Fattahi; Ginenus Fekadu; Berhanu Elfu Feleke; Allegra Allegra Ferrari; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Roham Foroumadi; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Nasrin Galehdar; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Yosef Haile Gebremariam; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Yohannes Fikadu Geda; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Melaku Getachew; Motuma Erena Getachew; Kazem Ghaffari; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Fariba Ghassemi; Ajnish Ghimire; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Sherief Ghozy; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat T. Gizaw; James C. 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Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Zahra Heidarymeybodi; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Yuta Hiraike; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Ramesh Holla; Marianne Holm; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Hoseini; Md. Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Ali Hosseinzadeh; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Fernando N. Hugo; Ayesha Humayun; Salman Hussain; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Kaire Innos; Pooya Iranpour; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Md Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Farhad Islami; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Linda Merin J; Abhishek Jaiswal; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Mahsa Jalili; Shahram Jalilian; Elham Jamshidi; Sung-In Jang; Chinmay T. 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Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license