Browsing by Author "Nicholas L.S. Roberts"

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Burden of injury along the development spectrum: associations between the Socio-demographic Index and disability-adjusted life year estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020) Juanita A. Haagsma; Spencer L. James; Chris D. Castle; Zachary V. Dingels; Jack T. Fox; Erin B. Hamilton; Zichen Liu; Lydia R. Lucchesi; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Dillon O. Sylte; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Alireza Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Fares Alahdab; Suliman A. Alghnam; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Amit Arora; Hamid Asayesh; Reza Assadi; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Shivanthi Balalla; Amrit Banstola; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Corina Benjet; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Dipan Bose; Soufiane Boufous; Alexandra Brazinova; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Ferrán Catalá-López; Jee-Young J. Choi; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Koustuv Dalal; Ahmad Daryani; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Louisa Degenhardt; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Kebede Deribe; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Gabrielle Aline deVeber; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Linh Phuong Doan; Kate A. Dolan; Tim Robert Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Andre Faro; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Tiffany K. Gill; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Josep Maria Haro; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Martha Híjar; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Naznin Hossain; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Rizwan Kalani; Amir Kasaeian; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Young-Eun Kim; Daniel Kim; Adnan Kisa; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Manasi Kumar; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Janet L. Leasher; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Raimundas Lunevicius; Flavia R. Machado; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Manzoor Ahmad Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Hailemariam Abiy Alemu Meheretu; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Addisu Melese; Walter Mendoza; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Shafiu Mohammed; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Stefania Mondello; Pablo A. Montero-Zamora; Yoshan Moodley; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Srinivas Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Heather M. Orpana; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Smita Pakhale; Eun-Kee Park; George C. Patton; Konrad Pesudovs; Michael R. Phillips; Suzanne Polinder; Swayam Prakash; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Siavash Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Shahab Rezaeian; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Basema Saddik; Payman Salamati; Yahya Salimi; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Susan M. Sawyer; Sonia Saxena; Mete Saylan; Ione J.C. Schneider; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Aziz Sheikh; Jiabin Shen; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shiue; João Pedro Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Joan B. Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Dan J. Stein; Mark A. Stokes; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Jacob E. Sunshine; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Jarnail Singh Thakur; Khanh Bao Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Lorainne Tudor Car; Olalekan A. Uthman; Benjamin S. Chudi Uzochukwu; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Yasir Waheed; Yuan-Pang Wang; Tissa Wijeratne; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Priyanka Yadav; Yuichiro Yano; Muluken Azage Yenesew; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Shamsa Zafar; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Yong Zhao; Sanjay Zodpey; Simon I. Hay; Alan D. Lopez; Ali H. Mokdad; Theo Vos
Background The epidemiological transition of non-communicable diseases replacing infectious diseases as the main contributors to disease burden has been well documented in global health literature. Less focus, however, has been given to the relationship between sociodemographic changes and injury. The aim of this study was to examine the association between disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from injury for 195 countries and territories at different levels along the development spectrum between 1990 and 2017 based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 estimates. Methods Injury mortality was estimated using the GBD mortality database, corrections for garbage coding and CODEm-the cause of death ensemble modelling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on surveys and inpatient and outpatient data sets for 30 cause-of-injury with 47 nature-of-injury categories each. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) is a composite indicator that includes lagged income per capita, average educational attainment over age 15 years and total fertility rate. results For many causes of injury, age-standardised DALY rates declined with increasing SDI, although road injury, interpersonal violence and self-harm did not follow this pattern. Particularly for self-harm opposing patterns were observed in regions with similar SDI levels. For road injuries, this effect was less pronounced. Conclusions The overall global pattern is that of declining injury burden with increasing SDI. However, not all injuries follow this pattern, which suggests multiple underlying mechanisms influencing injury DALYs. There is a need for a detailed understanding of these patterns to help to inform national and global efforts to address injury-related health outcomes across the development spectrum. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. 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Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Phillips; Cristiano Piccinelli; Tessa M. Pilz; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Dietrich Plass; Suzanne Polinder; Kevan R. Polkinghorne; Constance Dimity Pond; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Farshad Pourmalek; Anna Poznañska; Sergio I. Prada; V. Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Elisabetta Pupillo; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Alberto Raggi; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja C. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Ramu Rawat; Christian Razo; Sofia Boston Redford; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Phoebe-Anne Rhinehart; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniel Cury Ribeiro; Daniela Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Juan A. Rivera; Nicholas L.S. 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Schlaich; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Anbissa Muleta Senbeta; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Berrin Serdar; Marc L. Serre; Jamileh Shadid; Omid Shafaat; Saeed Shahabi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Ali S. Shalash; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Abbas Sheikhtaheri; Kenji Shibuya; Kevin David Shield; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kerem Shuval; Soraya Siabani; Radoslaw Sierpinski; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; João Pedro Silva; Kyle E. Simpson; Jasvinder A. Singh; Pushpendra Singh; Eirini Skiadaresi; Søren T. Skou; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Emma U.R. Smith; Amin Soheili; Shahin Soltani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J. D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Cory N. Spencer; Adel Spotin; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Caroline Stein; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo Stockfelt; Mark A. Stokes; Kurt Straif; Jacob L. Stubbs; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Gerhard Sulo; Iyad Sultan; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Takahiro Tabuchi; Amir Taherkhani; Masih Tajdini; Ken Takahashi; Jukka S. Takala; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Getayeneh Antehunegn Tesema; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; George D. Thurston; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Anna E. Torre; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara Travillian; Aristidis Tsatsakis; Lorainne Tudor Car; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Riaz Uddin; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Pascual R. Valdez; Aaron van Donkelaar; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Yousef Veisani; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Alexandrea Watson; Jingkai Wei; Melissa Y. Wei Wei; Robert G. Weintraub; Jordan Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; J. Jason West; Ronny Westerman; Joanna L. Whisnant; Harvey A. Whiteford; Kirsten E. Wiens; Charles D. A. Wolfe; Sarah S. Wozniak; Ai-Min Wu; Junjie Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Gelin Xu; Rixing Xu; Simon Yadgir; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Mousa Yaminfirooz; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Tomas Y. Yeheyis; Christopher Sabo Yilgwan; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Theodore Patrick Younker; Bahman Yousefi; Zabihollah Yousefi; Taraneh Yousefinezhadi; Abdilahi Yousuf Yousuf; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Jeff T. Zhao; Xiu-Ju George Zhao; Yingxi Zhao; Peng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Arash Ziapour; Stephanie R. M. Zimsen; Stephen S. Lim; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global injury morbidity and mortality from 1990 to 2017: Results from the global burden of disease study 2017
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020) Spencer L. James; Chris D. Castle; Zachary V. Dingels; Jack T. Fox; Erin B. Hamilton; Zichen Liu; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Dillon O. Sylte; Nathaniel J. Henry; Kate E. LeGrand; Ahmed Abdelalim; Amir Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Aidin Abedi; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Tauseef Ahmad; Rushdia Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Fares Alahdab; Genet Melak Alamene; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Animut Alebel; Niguse Meles Alema; Suliman A. Alghnam; Samar Al-Hajj; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Saqib Ali; Mahtab Alikhani; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Khalid Altirkawi; Yasser Sami Abdeldayem Amer; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever Loreche Amit; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Zohreh Arefi; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Amit Arora; Malke Asaad; Babak Asghari; Nefsu Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ghasem Azarian; Alaa Badawi; Ashish D. Badiye; Eleni Bagli; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Ahad Bakhtiari; Arun Balachandran; Maciej Banach; Srikanta K. Banerjee; Palash Chandra Banik; Amrit Banstola; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Akbar Barzegar; Mohsen Bayati; Bayisa Abdissa Baye; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Tariku Tesfaye Bekuma; Habte Belete; Corina Benjet; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Kidanemaryam Berhe; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Guilherme Borges; Antonio Maria Borzì; Soufiane Boufous; Alexandra Brazinova; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Shyam S. Budhathoki; Josip Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Félix Carvalho; João Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Joht S. Chandan; Wagaye Fentahun Chanie; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Irini Chatziralli; Neha Chaudhary; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Samantha M. Colquhoun; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Vera M. Costa; Giovanni Damiani; Ahmad Daryani; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Afshin Derakhshani; Kebede Deribe; Rupak Desai; Mostafa Dianati Nasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko Adema; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Aziz Eftekhari; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Demelash Abewa Elemineh; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Daniel Adane Endalew; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Yousef Fatahi; Wubalem Fekadu; Tomas Y. Ferede; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joel Msafiri Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Berhe Gebremichael; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Birhanu Geta; Mansour Ghafourifard; Farhad Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Asadollah Gholamian; Tiffany K. Gill; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Michal Grivna; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Yuming Guo; Gaurav Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Brian James Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Josep Maria Haro; Md Mehedi Hasan; Amir Hasanzadeh; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Khezar Hayat; Delia Hendrie; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Martha Híjar; Hung Chak Ho; Chi Linh Hoang; Michael K. Hole; Ramesh Holla; Naznin Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Guoqing Hu; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Endang Indriasih; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; M. Mofizul Islam; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Farzad Jalilian; Sudha Jayaraman; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Ravi Prakash Jha; Yetunde O. John-Akinola; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Teshome Abegaz Kamil; Tanuj Kanchan; Neeti Kapoor; Manoochehr Karami; Amir Kasaeian; Hagazi Gebremedhin Kassaye; Taras Kavetskyy; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Abraham Getachew Kelbore; Bayew Kelkay; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Tripti Khanna; Habibolah Khazaie; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Roba Khundkar; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Young-Eun Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Hamidreza Komaki; Shivakumar K.M. Kondlahalli; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Ai Koyanagi; Moritz U.G. Kraemer; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; Vivek Kumar; Nithin Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Girikumar Kumaresh; Om P. Kurmi; Oluwatosin Kuti; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Prabhat Lamichhane; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Dennis Odai Laryea; Savita Lasrado; Arman Latifi; Paolo Lauriola; Janet L. Leasher; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Shai Linn; Xuefeng Liu; Alan D. Lopez; Paulo A. Lotufo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Mohammed Madadin; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagon-Rojas; Venkatesh Maled; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Navid Manafi; Amir Manafi; Ana-Laura Manda; Narayana Manjunatha; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Lyn M. March; Amanda J. Mason-Jones; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Addisu Melese; Zeleke Aschalew Melketsedik; Peter T.N. Memiah; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Atte Meretoja; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Efat Mohamadi; Yousef Mohammad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Masoud Moradi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Farhad Moradpour; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Naho Morisaki; Shane Douglas Morrison; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Srinivas Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Morteza Naserbakht; Vinod Nayak; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Rajan Nikbakhsh; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Peter S. Nyasulu; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Emmanuel Wandera Okunga; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Heather M. Orpana; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Keyvan Pakshir; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Ashish Pathak; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Kebreab Paulos; Amy E. Peden; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Jeevan Pereira; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Roman V. Polibin; Suzanne Polinder; Hossein Poustchi; Swayam Prakash; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Parul Puri; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Ata Rafiee; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Siavash Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Fatemeh Rajati; Ivo Rakovac; Kavitha Ranganathan; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Prateek Rastogi; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Anas M. Saad; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Saeed Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Hamid Safarpour; Mahdi Safdarian; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Payman Salamati; Farkhonde Salehi; Saleh Salehi Zahabi; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Hosni Salem; Omar Salman; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Susan M. Sawyer; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; David C. Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Feng Sha; Faramarz Shaahmadi; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Hamid Sharifi; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Soraya Siabani; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Pankaj Kumar Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Catalin-Gabriel Smarandache; Emma U.R. Smith; Amin Soheili; Bija Soleymani; Ali Reza Soltanian; Joan B. Soriano; Muluken Bekele Sorrie; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Dan J. Stein; Mark A. Stokes; Babale Sufiyan Mu'awiyyah; Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria; Bryan L. Sykes; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Karen M. Tabb; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Gebretsadkan Hintsa Tekulu; Ayenew Kassie Tesema; Berhe Etsay Tesfay; Rekha Thapar; Asres Bedaso Tilahune; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Roman Topor-Madry; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Alexander C. Tsai; Lorainne Tudor Car; Saif Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Maida Umar; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Olalekan A. Uthman; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Yasir Waheed; Girmay Teklay Weldesamuel; Andrea Werdecker; Taweewat Wiangkham; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Habte Woldeyes; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Adam Belay Wondmieneh; Ai-Min Wu; Rajaram Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Yoosik Youm; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Yong Yu; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Telma Zahirian Moghadam; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Hamed Zandian; Ahmad Zarei; Fatemeh Zare; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Louisa Degenhardt; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Simon I. Hay; Ali H. Mokdad; Robert C. Reiner; Benn Sartorius; Theo Vos
Background Past research in population health trends has shown that injuries form a substantial burden of population health loss. Regular updates to injury burden assessments are critical. We report Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 Study estimates on morbidity and mortality for all injuries. methods We reviewed results for injuries from the GBD 2017 study. GBD 2017 measured injury-specific mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. To measure non-fatal injuries, GBD 2017 modelled injury-specific incidence and converted this to prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). YLLs and YLDs were summed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Findings In 1990, there were 4 260 493 (4 085 700 to 4 396 138) injury deaths, which increased to 4 484 722 (4 332 010 to 4 585 554) deaths in 2017, while age-standardised mortality decreased from 1079 (1073 to 1086) to 738 (730 to 745) per 100 000. In 1990, there were 354 064 302 (95% uncertainty interval: 338 174 876 to 371 610 802) new cases of injury globally, which increased to 520 710 288 (493 430 247 to 547 988 635) new cases in 2017. During this time, age-standardised incidence decreased non-significantly from 6824 (6534 to 7147) to 6763 (6412 to 7118) per 100 000. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALYs decreased from 4947 (4655 to 5233) per 100 000 to 3267 (3058 to 3505). Interpretation Injuries are an important cause of health loss globally, though mortality has declined between 1990 and 2017. Future research in injury burden should focus on prevention in high-burden populations, improving data collection and ensuring access to medical care. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. 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Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of injuries, and burden attributable to injuries risk factors, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Negar Rezaei; Sina Azadnajafabad; Javad Khanali; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Dilaram Acharya; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Saira Afzal; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Sajjad Ahmad; Aqeel Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Haroon Ahmed; Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Hossein Akbarialiabad; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Shohreh Alian Samakkhah; Yousef Alimohamadi; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Hiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Sohrab Amiri; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Davood Anvari; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Muhammad Aqeel; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ashokan Arumugam; Umesh Raj Aryal; Malke Asaad; Saeed Asgary; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Atalel Fentahun F. Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Setognal Birara Aychiluhm; Alemu Degu Ayele; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Mainak Bardhan; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Alehegn Bekele; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Saeid Bitaraf; Archith Boloor; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Soufiane Boufous; Michael Brauer; Andrew M. Briggs; Julie Brown; Dana Bryazka; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Márcia Carvalho; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Wai Tong Chien; Abdulaal Chitheer; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Beniamino Cislaghi; Scott Richard Clark; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Patricia Cullen; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Rakhi Dandona; Gary L. Darmstadt; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Diego De Leo; Katie de Luca; Andreas K. Demetriades; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Belay Desye; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Frank J. Elgar; Islam Y. Elgendy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Habitu Birhan Eshetu; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Andre Faro; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Pietro Ferrara; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Yaseen Galali; Nasrin Galehdar; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Leta Adugna Geleta; Motuma Erena Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Tiffany K. Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; James C. Glasbey; Laszlo Göbölös; Kimiya Gohari; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Michal Grivna; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Bhawna Gupta; Brian J. Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Pawan Kumar Hamal; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Syed Emdadul Haque; Arief Hargono; Netanja I. Harlianto; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Yuta Hiraike; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Bellal Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Amir Human Hoveidaei; Guoqing Hu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Jagnoor Jagnoor; Haitham Jahrami; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Rajesh Kamath; Ashwin Kamath; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Samad Karkhah; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Joonas H. Kauppila; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Moien A.B. Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Gyu Ri Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Farzad Kompani; K.M. Marulasiddaiah Kondlahalli Shivakumar; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Estie Kruger; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nithin Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Paolo Lauriola; Long Khanh Dao Le; Janet L. Leasher; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Andrew Tiyamike Makhiringa Likaka; Stephen S. Lim; Shai Linn; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahadeshwara Prasad; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagón-Rojas; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Yosef Manla; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Elezebeth Mathews; Pallab K. Maulik; Enkeleint A. Mechili; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Tomasz Miazgowski; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Soheil Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Maryam Moradi; Shane Douglas Morrison; Sumaira Mubarik; Efren Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf Fawzy Nabhan; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Zuhair S. Natto; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Evangelia Nena; Samata Nepal; Haruna Asura Nggada; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Oh In-Hwan; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Adeolu Olufunso Oladunjoye; Andrew T. Olagunju; Diriba Dereje Olana; Ahmed Omar Bali; Adrian Otoiu; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh Padukudru P A; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Park Eun-Kee; Jay Patel; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Amy E. Peden; Paolo Pedersini; Marcos Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Tom Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Suzanne Polinder; Ibrahim Qattea; Ata Rafiee; Pankaja Raghav; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Sheena Ramazanu; Usha Rani; Temam Beshir Raru; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Prateek Rastogi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Reza Rawassizadeh; Maryam Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Muhammad Riaz; Jennifer Rickard; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Bedanta Roy; S. Manjula; S.N. Chandan; Siamak Sabour; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Sare Safi; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Payman Salamati; Juan Sanabria; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Yaser Sarikhani; Arash Sarveazad; Davide Sattin; Ganesh Kumar Saya; David C. Schwebel; Binyam Tariku Seboka; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Pritik A. Shah; Ataollah Shahbandi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Nigussie Tadesse Sharew; Azam Sharifi; Neeraj Sharma; Vishal Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Ali Sheidaei; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jiabin Shen; Adithi Shetty; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Roman Shrestha; Negussie Boti Sidamo; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Wudneh Simegn; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; Bogdan Socea; Yonatan Solomon; Yi Song; Houman Sotoudeh; Raul A.R. C. Sousa; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Dan J. Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mark A. Stokes; Narayan Subedi; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; M.D. Tariqujjaman; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nathan Y. Tat; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Rekha Thapar; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Derara Girma Tufa; Sana Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Gizachew Tadesse Wassie; Taweewat Wiangkham; Caroline Wilkerson; Asrat Arja Wolde; Hong Xiao; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Leila Zaki; Michael Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Bagher Larijani; Farshad Farzadfar
Objectives: In this study, the trends and current situation of the injury burden as well as attributable burden to injury risk factors at global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 are presented. Study design: To assess the attributable burden of injury risk factors, the data of interest on data sources were retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) and analyzed. Methods: Cause-specific death from injuries was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model in the GBD 2019. The burden attributable to each injury risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) was used to evaluate countries’ developmental status. Results: Globally, there were 713.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 663.8 to 766.9) injuries incidence and 4.3 million (UI: 3.9 to 4.6) deaths caused by injuries in 2019. There was an inverse relationship between age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate and SDI quintiles in 2019. Overall, low bone mineral density was the leading risk factor of injury deaths in 2019, with a contribution of 10.5% (UI: 9.0 to 11.6) of total injuries and age-standardized deaths, followed by occupational risks (7.0% [UI: 6.3–7.9]) and alcohol use (6.8% [UI: 5.2 to 8.5]). Conclusion: Various risks were responsible for the imposed burden of injuries. This study highlighted the small but persistent share of injuries in the global burden of diseases and injuries to provide beneficial data to produce proper policies to reach an effective global injury prevention plan. © 2024
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Ilana N. Ackerman; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'A Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Mohammadreza Amiresmaili; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Amit Arora; Megha Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Zerihun Ataro; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Eyasu Tamru Bekru; Abate Bekele Belachew; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Samir Bhatt; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tone Bjorge; Archie Bleyer; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Massimo Cirillo; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Marita Cross; John A. Crump; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Hans De Steur; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Doan; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; E. Ray Dorsey; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Michelle M. Echko; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Anne Elise Eggen; Joshua R. Ehrlich; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Melese Linger Endalifer; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Valery L. Feigin; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Fürst; Joao M. Furtado; Emmanuela Gakidou; Seana Gall; Silvano Gallus; Morsaleh Ganji; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Francis Guillemin; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Behzad Heibati; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Howard J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Aung Soe Htet; John J. Huang; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L. James; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Jost B. 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Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Christopher J.L. Murray; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Vinay Srinivasan; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Nasrin Abdoli; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Daisy Maria Xavier Abreu; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia V. Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Ali Almasi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Nicholas Arian; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. 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Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Tuhin Biswas; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Archie Bleyer; Berrak Bora Basara; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Jerry D. Brewer; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Roy Burstein; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Alanur Çavlin; Ester Cerin; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Sara Conti; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Petra Cukelj; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Eric L. Ding; Girmaye Deye Dinsa; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kate A. Dolan; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Tamer Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Carla Sofia E. SáFarinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Kairsten A. Fay; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Fariba Feizy; Ama P. Fenny; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Thomas Fürst; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Gregory M. Garcia; Miguel Á. Garcia-Gordillo; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Peter Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Jingwen Guo; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. 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Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Asnake Ararsa Irenso; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Anshul Kastor; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Paul Evan Kilgore; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Margaret N. Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Sanjay Krishnaswami; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Fekede Asefa Kumsa; Michael J. Kutz; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Justin J. Lang; Sonia Lansky; Van C. Lansingh; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S. Lassi; Arman Latifi; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; James B. Lee; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Samson Leta; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Crispin Mabika Mabika; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Fabiana Madotto; Tarek Abd Elaziz Mahmood; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Manzoor Ahmad Malik; Abdullah A. 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Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license