Browsing by Author "Samantha Leigh Larson"

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Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1923–1994), (S0140673618322256), (10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32225-6))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2019) Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Ashkan Afshin; Emmanuela Gakidou; Stephen S. Lim; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Akilew Awoke Adane; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Gina Agarwal; Anju Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Komal Ali; Syed Mustafa Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Josep M. Antó; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Zerihun Ataro; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B. Ayuk; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Kylie Ball; Shoshana H. Ballew; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Aleksandra Barac; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Eyasu Tamru Bekru; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Gilles Bergeron; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Tone Bjørge; Brigette F. Blacker; Archie Bleyer; Rohan Borschmann; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Richard T. Burnett; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Leah E. Cahill; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Rosario Cárdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kate Causey; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Kai-Lan Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Miao Li Chee; Ching-Yu Cheng; Adrienne Chew; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ken Lee Chin; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Owen R. Cooper; Josef Coresh; Leslie Cornaby; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; David K. Cundiff; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Sarah C. Darby; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Aniruddha Deshpande; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Gabrielle Aline Deveber; Subhojit Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Helen Derara Diro; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Natalie Ebert; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal Rf Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Batool Fatima; Kairsten A. Fay; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Giannina Ferrara; Alize J. Ferrari; Manuela L. Ferreira; Irina Filip; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Seana Gall; Silvano Gallus; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Morsaleh Ganji; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Rakesh Ghosh; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; William W. Godwin; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Alessandra C. Goulart; Ayman Grada; Morgan E. Grams; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Daniela S. Gutiérrez-Torres; Juanita A. Haagsma; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Tarig B. Higazi; Esayas Haregot Hilawe; Hans W. Hoek; Howard J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; Howard Hu; John J. Huang; Mamusha Aman Hussen; Chantal K. Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Nayu Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Maria D. Jackson; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Surya Kant; Chittaranjan Kar; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Gulfaraz Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Mohammad Khazaei; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Hans Kromhout; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Carl Lachat; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Faris Hasan Lami; Justin J. Lang; Van C. Lansingh; Samantha Leigh Larson; Arman Latifi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Yu Liao; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Tim C.D. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Ísis Eloah Machado; Fabiana Madotto; Hue Thi Mai; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C.O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Winfried März; Melvin B. Marzan; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Toni Meier; Fantahun Ayenew Mekonnen; Yohannes A. Melaku; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Gert B.M. Mensink; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Fatemeh Momeniha; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Dariush Mozaffarian; Kalayu Brhane Mruts; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Oumer Sada Muhammed; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Nitish Naik; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Bruce Neal; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Nam Ba Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Jing Nie; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Nobuo Nishi; Molly R. Nixon; Marzieh Nojomi; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Elaine O. Nsoesie; Peter S. Nyasulu; Carla M. Obermeyer; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Erika Ota; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Øverland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; Snehal T. Patil; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Deepak Paudel; Katherine R. Paulson; Wayra Citlali Paz Ballesteros; Neil Pearce; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Tobias Pischon; Farhad Pishgar; Oleguer Plana-Ripoll; Dietrich Plass; Suzanne Polinder; Kevan R. Polkinghorne; Maarten J. Postma; Richie Poulton; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Manorama B. Purwar; Mostafa Qorbani; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Zohreh Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; Sasa Rajsic; Sree Bhushan Raju; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Goura Kishor Rath; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; K. Srinath Reddy; Colin D. Rehm; Jürgen Rehm; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Luz Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu; Satar Rezaei; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Juan A. Rivera; Kedir Teji Roba; Sonia Rodríguez-Ramírez; Leonardo Roever; Yesenia Román; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Gregory A. Roth; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Lesley Rushton; Charumathi Sabanayagam; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Payman Salamati; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Devashri Digvijay Salvi; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Tania G. Sánchez-Pimienta; Taren Sanders; Yingying Sang; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; João Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schöttker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Soraya Seedat; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Marc L. Serre; Edson Serván-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Gavin Shaddick; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Teresa Shamah Levy; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Heidar Sharafi; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Hamid Sharifi; Jayendra Sharma; Meenakshi Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Kenji Shibuya; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Haitham Shoman; Mark G. Shrime; Matthew S. Shupler; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Abla Mehio Sibai; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; João Pedro Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Eirini Skiadaresi; Vegard Skirbekk; David L. Smith; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Ranjani Somayaji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Angela Spinelli; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Nadine Steckling; Dan J. Stein; Murray B. Stein; Goran Stevanovic; Leo Stockfelt; Mark A. Stokes; Lela Sturua; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick John Sur; Bryan L. Sykes; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Habtamu Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Belay Tessema; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Andrew Theis; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Hannah J. Thomas; Matthew Lloyd Thomas; Nihal Thomas; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Taavi Tillmann; Quyen G. To; Myriam Tobollik; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Jeffrey A. Towbin; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Hayley D. Tymeson; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Pascual R. Valdez; Aaron Van Donkelaar; Elena Varavikova; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Vidhya Venkateswaran; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante
Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Alton Lu; Tim C.D. Lucas; Alessandra Lugo; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Jianing Ma; Daiane Borges Machado; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Mohammed Madadin; Emilie R. Maddison; Ralph Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Mokhtar Mahdavi Mahdavi; Morteza Mahmoudi; Hue Thi Mai; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagón-Rojas; Venkatesh Maled; Afshin Maleki; Shokofeh Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Amir Manafi; Navid Manafi; Ana Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Ana M. Mantilla Herrera; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Santi Martini; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Anthony Masaka; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; João Massano; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Claudia I. Mastrogiacomo; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Erin A. May; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Carlo Eduardo Medina-Solís; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Fereshteh Mehri; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Wahengbam Bigyananda Meitei; Teferi Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Meresa Berwo Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Alibek Mereke; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Kebadnew Mulatu Mihretie; Ted R. Miller; Edward J. Mills; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Mohammad Miri; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Hamed Mirzaei; Maryam Mirzaei; Roya Mirzaei; Mehdi Mirzaei-Alavijeh; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Bahram Mohajer; Osama Mohamad; Efat Mohamadi; Dara K. Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad
Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2019) Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Deepa Jahagirdar; Molly H. Biehl; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Samantha Leigh Larson; Megha Arora; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Krista M. Steuben; Hedayat Abbastabar; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Direslgne Misker Abyu; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Samuel B. Albertson; Birhan Tamene T. Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Daniel Asmelash; Anemaw A. Asrat; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Saba Abraham Belay; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Muche Belayneh; Adugnaw Berhane; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Helen Bitew; Andrew Blinov; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Sharath B.N. Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Raquel Crider; Tukur Dahiru; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; José Das Neves; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don Des Jarlais; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Herbert Duber; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bereket Duko Adema; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Farshad Farzadfar; Batool Fatima; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Themba T.G. Ginindza; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I. Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H. Dean Hosgood; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Spencer L. James; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amir Kasaeian; Belete Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Navid Manafi; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga; Varshil Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Marilita M. Moschos; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Emmanuel Ankrah Odame; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Solomon Olum; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H. Pakpour; Sangram Kishor Patel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Akram Pourshams; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Salman Rawaf; Cesar Reis; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Elias E.M. Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Salvatore Rubino; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Joshua A. Salomon; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Hamid Sharifi; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Mekonnen Sisay; Solomon Sisay; Amanda E. Smith; Anton Sokhan; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Nuno Taveira; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Habtamu Denekew Temesgen; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Stephanie M. Topp; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Yousef Veisani; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Girmay Teklay T. Weldesamuel; Ronny Westerman; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn; Addisu Gize Yeshanew; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Marcel Yotebieng; Yoosik Youm; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Afshin Zarghi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Stein Emil Vollset; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).