Browsing by Author "Samir Bhatt"

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Erratum: Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (The Lancet (2016) 388(10053) (1725–1774)(S0140673616315756)(10.1016/S0140-6736(16)31575-6))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2017) Haidong Wang; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Matthew M Coates; Megan Coggeshall; Lalit Dandona; Khassoum Diallo; Elisabeth Barboza Franca; Maya Fraser; Nancy Fullman; Peter W Gething; Simon I Hay; Yohannes Kinfu; Maaya Kita; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; Heidi J Larson; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Stephen S Lim; Margaret Lind; Alan D Lopez; Rafael Lozano; George A Mensah; Joseph B Mikesell; Ali H Mokdad; Meghan D Mooney; Mohsen Naghavi; Grant Nguyen; Ivo Rakovac; Joshua A Salomon; Naris Silpakit; Amber Sligar; Reed J D Sorensen; Theo Vos; Jun Zhu; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Kaja M Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M Abdulle; Semaw Ferede Abera; Victor Aboyans; Biju Abraham; Ibrahim Abubakar; Laith J Abu-Raddad; Niveen M E Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Yitayih Abyu; Tom Achoki; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Ademola Lukman Adelekan; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Arnav Agarwal; Oluremi N Ajala; Tomi F Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Khurshid Alam; Noore K M Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Robert William Aldridge; Miguel Angel Alegretti; Zewdie Aderaw Alemu; Raghib Ali; Ala’a Alkerwi; François Alla; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid A Altirkawi; Elena Alvarez Martin; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T Amare; Alemayehu Amberbir; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Emmanuel A Ameh; Walid Ammar; Stephen Marc Amrock; Hjalte H Andersen; Gregory M Anderson; Carl Abelardo T Antonio; Johan Ärnlöv; Al Artaman; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Suleman Atique; Euripide Frinel G Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Amitava Banerjee; Bolanle F Banigbe; Aleksandra Barac; Ryan M Barber; Suzanne L Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Tigist Assefa Bayou; Yibeltal Tebekaw Bayou; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Tolesa Bekele; Michelle L Bell; Aminu K Bello; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Eduardo Bernabé; Balem Demtsu Betsu; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Samir Bhatt; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Boris Bikbov; Sait Mentes Birlik; Donal Bisanzio; Espen Bjertness; Jed D Blore; Rupert R A Bourne; Michael Brainin; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K Breitborde; Alexandria Brown; Geoffrey Colin Buckle; Michael Burch; Zahid A Butt; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano; Rosario Cárdenas; David O Carpenter; Juan Jesus Carrero; Austin Carter; Daniel C Casey; Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Ruben Estanislao Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly Cercy; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G Ciobanu; Samantha M Colquhoun; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Solomon Abrha Damtew; Hadi Danawi; Rakhi Dandona; José Das Neves; Adrian C Davis; Pieter de Jager; Diego De Leo; Louisa Degenhardt; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C Des Jarlais; Gabrielle A Deveber; Samath D Dharmaratne; Preet K Dhillon; Eric L Ding; Pratik Pinal Doshi; Kerrie E Doyle; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal Elyazar; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Emerito Jose Aquino Faraon; Talha A Farid; Carla Sofia E Sa Farinha; André Faro; Maryam S Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Joao C Fernandes; Florian Fischer; Joseph R A Fitchett; Nataliya Foigt; Richard C Franklin; Joseph Friedman; Thomas Fürst; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Parthasarathi Ganguly; Teshome Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Alemseged Aregay Gebru; Johanna M Geleijnse; Bradford D Gessner; Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi; Ababi Zergaw Giref; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Hebe N Gouda; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Demewoz Haile; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Jamie Hancock; Alexis J Handal; Graeme J Hankey; Hilda L Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Kimani M Harun; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J Hay; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Hans W Hoek; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Peter J Hotez; Damian G Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Guoqing Hu; Cheng Huang; John J Huang; Hsiang Huang; Laetitia Huiart; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Bulat T Idrisov; Kaire Innos; Kathryn H Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Sun Ha Jee; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Vivekanand Jha; Guohong Jiang; Ying Jiang; Tariku Jibat; Ye Jin; Jost B Jonas; Zubair Kabir; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ritul Kamal; Haidong Kan; Gagandeep Kang; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Amir Kasaeian; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Jeanne Françoise Kayibanda; Konstantin Kazanjan; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Andrew Haddon Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A Khalil; Abdur Rahman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Irma Khonelidze; Jagdish Khubchandani; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Niranjan Kissoon; Miia Kivipelto; Luke D Knibbs; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A Kudom; G. Anil Kumar; Michael J Kutz; Hmwe H Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Jennifer O Lam; Van C Lansingh; Anders Larsson; James Leigh; Ricky Leung; Yichong Li; Yongmei Li; M Patrice Lindsay; Patrick Y Liu; Shiwei Liu; Belinda K Lloyd; Warren D Lo; Giancarlo Logroscino; Nicola Low; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A Lyons; Stefan Ma; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahdi Mahdavi; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Chabila C Mapoma; Wagner Marcenes; Jose Martinez-Raga; Melvin Barrientos Marzan; Felix Masiye; John J McGrath; Peter A Meaney; Alem Mehari; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Alemayehu B Mekonnen; Yohannes Adama Melaku; Peter Memiah; Ziad A Memish; Walter Mendoza; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Francis Apolinary Mhimbira; Ted R Miller; Edward J Mills; Mojde Mirarefin; Awoke Misganaw; Charles N Mock; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Alireza Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Lorenzo Monasta; Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez; Marcella Montico; Ami R Moore; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Lidia Morawska; Rintaro Mori; Ulrich O Mueller; Georgina A V Murphy; Srinivas Murthy; Jean B Nachega; Aliya Naheed; Kovin S Naidoo; Luigi Naldi; Devina Nand; Vinay Nangia; Subas Neupane; Charles R Newton; John N Newton; Marie Ng; Frida Namnyak Ngalesoni; Peter Nguhiu; Quyen Le Nguyen; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Patrick Martial Nkamedjie Pete; Ole F Norheim; Rosana E Norman; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Foluke Adetola Ojelabi; Pedro R Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; P.A. Mahesh; Eun-Kee Park; Hye-Youn Park; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Angel J Paternina Caicedo; Scott B Patten; João Mário Pedro; David M Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Daniel Pope; Svetlana Popova; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Rynaz H S Rabiee; Anwar Rafay; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Murugesan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja Rao; Amany H Refaat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Serge Resnikoff; Alex Reynolds; David Rojas-Rueda; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A Roth; Ambuj Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Rajesh Sagar; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Juan R Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S Santos; João Vasco Santos; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Edson E Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Kevin N Sheth; Kenji Shibuya; Hwashin Hyun Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shuie; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jonathan Silverberg; Edgar P Simard; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Joan B Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Luciano A Sposato; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Bruno F Sunguya; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L Sykes; Cassandra E I Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Bineyam Taye; Bemnet Amare Tedla; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Tesfaye Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kiran Thapa; Alan J Thomson; Andrew L Thorne-Lyman; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Bach Xuan Tran; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene; Abera Kenay Tura; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N Ukwaja; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Raj Kumar Verma; Francesco S Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Linhong Wang; Yanping Wang; Scott Weichenthal; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G Weintraub; Daniel J Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Tissa Wijeratne; Thomas Neil Williams; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A Wolfe; Ingrid Wolfe; Sungho Won; Mamo Wubshet; Qingyang Xiao; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Pengpeng Ye; Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Hajo Zeeb; Hao Zhang; Yong Zhao; Yingfeng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
GBD 2015 Child Mortality Collaborators. Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. Lancet 2016; 388: 1725–74—In this Article, Mohsen Naghavi, Michael J Kutz, Chantal Huynh, Samer Hamidi, Addisu Shunu Beyene, and Stephen S Lim should have been listed as authors. The affiliation details for Simon I Hay have been updated. The funding statement for Simon I Hay has been added. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Jan 5, 2017. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Daniel Dicker; Grant Nguyen; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Ahmed Abdulahi Abdurahman; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Pawan Acharya; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; ArsÃ¨ne Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Anurag Agrawal; Mehdi Ahmadi; Alireza Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Mohamed Lemine Cheikh Brahim Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Animut Alebel; Alicia V. Aleman; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Alaâ€™A Alkerwi; FranÃ§ois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Degefaye Zelalem Anlay; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Johan Ã„rnlÃ¶v; Megha Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Mohsen Asadi-Lari; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Reza Assadi; Zerihun Ataro; Tesfay Mehari Mehari Atey; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Engi F. Attia; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F G A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Baffour Awuah; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Tambe B. Ayuk; Peter S. Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Huda Basaleem; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick BÃ©jot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Ezra Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adugnaw Berhane; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Eesh Bhatia; Samir Bhatt; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Tone BjÃ¸rge; Archie Bleyer; Berrak Bora Basara; Dipan Bose; Cristina Bosetti; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Luisa C. Brant; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Kristin E. Burke; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Charlton S K H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario CÃ¡rdenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; FÃ©lix Carvalho; Carlos A. CastaÃ±eda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; FerrÃ¡n CatalÃ¡-LÃ³pez; Alanur Ã‡avlin; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Ana Paula Champs; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Wanqing Chen; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Maria-Magdalena Constantin; Sara Conti; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Alexandra Cucu; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; JosÃ© Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Barbora de Courten; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Diego De leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-GutiÃ©rrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Eric L. Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; David Teye Doku; Kate A. Dolan; Christl A. Donnelly; E Ray Dorsey; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Thomas M. Drake; Tim Robert Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Mohammed Elfaramawi; Ziad El-Khatib; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Iqbal R F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Tamer Farag; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E SÃ¡ Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Fariba Feizy; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; John A. Ford; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas FÃ¼rst; JoÃ£o M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Adriana Galan; Silvano Gallus; Ketevan Gambashidze; Amiran Gamkrelidze; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; Teshome Gebre; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Yalemzewod Assefa Gelaw; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Bradford D. Gessner; Sefonias Getachew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Srinivas Goli; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Mari Carmen Gomez-Cabrera; Hector GÃ³mez-DantÃ©s; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; BÃ¡rbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Masako Horino; H Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Mihaela Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Aung Soe Htet; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Oluwaseyi Oluwakemi Isehunwa; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Rajesh Jain; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Sudha Jayaraman; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Sun Ha Jee; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Sarah Charlotte Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk JÃ¼risson; K. Madhanraj; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; AndrÃ© Karch; Corine Karema; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Marzieh Katibeh; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Hossein Kazemeini; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; K.C. Prakash; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Maia Kereselidze; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D Dejenu Kibret; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika KivimÃ¤ki; Marcus E. Kleber; Luke D. Knibbs; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Margaret N. Kosek; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Sanjay Krishnaswami; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Andreas A. Kudom; Ernst J. Kuipers; Xie Rachel Kulikoff; G Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Fekede Asefa Kumsa; Michael J. Kutz; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Qing Lan; SinÃ©ad M. Langan; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi Jane Larson; Dennis Odai Laryea; Zohra S. Lassi; Arman Latifi; Pablo M. Lavados; Avula Laxmaiah; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Samson Leta; Miriam Levi; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Xiaohong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Chris Lonsdale; Scott A. Lorch; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Tim C D. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Stefan Ma; Crispin Mabika; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Emilie R. Maddison; Ralph Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Manzoor Ahmad Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Ana-Laura Manda; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Shakhnazarova Marina; Jose Martinez-Raga; Sheila C O. Martins; Francisco RogerlÃ¢ndio Martins-Melo; Winfried MÃ¤rz; Melvin B. Marzan; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Felix Masiye; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Suresh Mehata; Sanjay Madhav Mehendale; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tesfa Mekonen; Tefera Chane Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Yode Miangotar; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R. Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Babak Moazen; Nurilign Abebe Moges; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Maryam Mohammadi-Khanaposhtani; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Shafiu Mohammed; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Mahmoudreza Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno VelÃ¡squez; Joana Morgado-Da-costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Marilita M. Moschos; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Erin C. Mullany; Kate Muller; Manoj Murhekar; Tasha B. Murphy; G.V.S. Murthy; Srinivas Murthy; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Haseeb Nawaz; Busisiwe P. Ncama; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Michele Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Elaine O. Nsoesie; Peter S. Nyasulu; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Okechukwu Samuel Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Sok King Ong; John Nelson Opio; Eyal Oren; Justin R. Ortiz; Alberto Ortiz; Erika Ota; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Ã˜verland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Abayomi Samuel Oyekale; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Adrian Pana; Basant Kumar Panda; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Achyut Raj Pandey; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Ajay Patle; Scott B. Patten; George C. Patton; Deepak Paudel; Neil Pearce; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Krystle M. Perez; Norberto Perico; Aslam Pervaiz; Konrad Pesudovs; William A. Petri; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Dietrich Plass; Suzanne Polinder; Constance Dimity Pond; Svetlana Popova; Maarten J. Postma; Farshad Pourmalek; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; V. Prakash; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Mostafa Qorbani; D Alex Quistberg; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; Sasa Rajsic; Sree Bhushan Raju; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Anna Ranta; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Sarah E. Ray; Christian Razo-GarcÃa; Maria Albertina Santiago Rego; JÃ¼rgen Rehm; Robert C. Reiner; Nickolas Reinig; Cesar Reis; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Horacio Riojas; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Denis O. Roshchin; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; George Mugambage Ruhago; Soheil Saadat; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Mohamadreza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael de Freitas Saldanha; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-NiÃ±o; Itamar S. Santos; JoÃ£o Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Vinod Scaria; Elke Schaeffner; Kathryn Schelonka; Maria InÃªs Schmidt; Ione J C. 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Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2017) Simon I. Hay; Amanuel Alemu Abajobir; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Foad Abd-Allah; Abdishakur M. Abdulle; Teshome Abuka Abebo; Semaw Ferede Abera; Victor Aboyans; Laith J. Abu-Raddad; Ilana N. Ackerman; Isaac A. Adedeji; Olatunji Adetokunboh; Ashkan Afshin; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sutapa Agrawal; Anurag Agrawal; Aliasghar Ahmad Kiadaliri; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Sneha Aiyar; Tomi F. Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Faris Hasan Al Lami; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Noore Alam; Tahiya Alam; Deena Alasfoor; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Raghib Ali; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Juma M. Alkaabi; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine Allen; Fatma Al-Maskari; Mohammad Abdulaziz Almazroa; Rajaa Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Shirina Alsowaidi; Benjamin M. Althouse; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Johan Ärnlöv; Megha Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna Kumar Aryal; Solomon W. Asgedom; Tesfay Mehari Atey; Niguse Tadele Atnafu; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide Frinel G. Arthur Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Shally Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Peter Azzopardi; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Umar Bacha; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Marlena S. Bannick; Aleksandra Barac; Suzanne L. Barker-Collo; Till Bärnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Sanjay Basu; Robert Battista; Katherine E. Battle; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Justin Beardsley; Neeraj Bedi; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Michelle L. Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; James R. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Jennifer Benson; Adugnaw Berhane; Derbew Fikadu Berhe; Eduardo Bernabé; Balem Demtsu Betsu; Mircea Beuran; Addisu Shunu Beyene; Anil Bhansali; Samir Bhatt; Zulfqar A. Bhutta; Sibhatu Biadgilign; Kelly Bienhof; Boris Bikbov; Charles Birungi; Stan Biryukov; Donal Bisanzio; Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu; Fiona M. Blyth; Dube Jara Boneya; Dipan Bose; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Rupert R. A. Bourne; Michael Brainin; Carol E. G. Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Paul S. Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach S. Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Lemma Negesa Bulto Bulto; Blair Bumgarner; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Ewan Cameron; Ismael Ricardo Campos-Nonato; Hélène Carabin; Rosario Cárdenas; David O. Carpenter; Juan Jesus Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Daniel Casey; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Ferrán Catalá-López; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Honglei Chen; Mirriam Chibalabala; Chioma Ezinne Chibueze; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal A. Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Danny Colombara; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Cyrus Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Marita Cross; John A. Crump; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Koustuv Dalal; Albertino Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; José Das Neves; Dragos V. Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Hans De Steur; Louisa Degenhardt; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Kebede Deribe; Amare Deribew; Don C. Das Jarlais; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Preet K. Dhillon; Daniel Dicker; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; E. Ray Dorsey; Kadine Priscila Bender Dos Santos; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Bruce Bartholow Duncan; Beth E. Ebel; Michelle Echko; Ziad Ziad El-Khatib; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sergey Petrovich Ermakov; Holly E. Erskine; Setegn Eshetie; Babak Eshrati; Alireza Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Fanuel Belayneh Bekele Fanuel; Tamer Farag; Carla Sofa E Sa Farinha; André Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; João C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Abraham D. Flaxman; Nataliya Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Richard C. Franklin; Joseph J. Frostad; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Fürst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Emmanuela Gakidou; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ayele Geleto; Bikila Lencha Gemechu; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Peter W. Gething; Alireza Ghajar; Katherine B. Gibney; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi; Melkamu Dedefo Gishu; Giorgia Giussani; William W. Godwin; Kashish Goel; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Richard A. Gosselin; Carolyn C. Gotay; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra Carvalho Goulart; Nicholas Graetz; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rajeev Gupta; Prakash C. Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Vipin Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Reyna A. Gutiérrez; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Alemayehu Desalegne Hailu; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Randah Ribhi Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Mouhanad Hammami; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Habtamu Abera Hareri; Josep Maria Haro; Kimani M. Harun; James Harvey; Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Mohammad T. Hedayati; Delia Hendrie; Nathaniel J. Henry; Ileana Beatriz Heredia-Pi; Pouria Heydarpour; Hans W. Hoek; Howard J. Hofman; Masako Horino; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Aung Soe Htet; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Chantal Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Ehimario Uche Igumbor; Chad Ikeda; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Nader Jahanmehr; Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic; Peter James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Sudha P. Jayaraman; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Paul N. Jensen; Vivekanand Jha; Guohong Jiang; Denny John; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah Charlotte Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Ritul Kamal; Chittaranjan Kar; Nadim E. Karam; André Karch; Corine Kakizi Karema; Seyed M. Karimi; Chante Karimkhani; Amir Kasaeian; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Nigussie Assefa Kassaw; Anshul Kastor; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Christian Kieling; Yun Jin Kim; Daniel Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna A. Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Knudsen; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Dhaval Kolte; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Georgios A. Kotsakis; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael Kravchenko; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Hmwe H. Kyu; Anton Carl Jonas Lager; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Nkurunziza Lambert; Qing Lan; Van C. Lansingh; Anders Larsson; Janet L. Leasher; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Ricky Leung; Miriam Levi; Yichong Li; Yongmei Li; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Stephen S. Lim; Shai Linn; Angela Liu; Patrick Y. Liu; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Katharine J. Looker; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Timothy C. D. Lucas; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Mahdi Mahdavi; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Rajesh Malhotra; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Helena Manguerra; Treh Manhertz; Lorenzo G. Mantovani; Chabila C. Mapoma; Lyn M. March; Laurie B. Marczak; Jose Martinez-Raga; Paulo Henrique Viegas Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried März; Manu Raj Mathur; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; Madeline McGaughey; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Suresh Mehata; Toni Meier; Kidanu Gebremariam Meles; Peter Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Melkamu Merid Mengesha; Mubarek Abera Mengistie; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Renata Micha; Anoushka Millear; Ted R. Miller; Shawn Minnig; Mojde Mirarefn; Erkin M. 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Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Ilana N. Ackerman; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. 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Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, national, and selected subnational levels of stillbirths, neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality, 1980–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
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Mahesh; Eun-Kee Park; Hye-Youn Park; Mahboubeh Parsaeian; Angel J Paternina Caicedo; Scott B Patten; João Mário Pedro; David M Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael Robert Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Daniel Pope; Svetlana Popova; Farshad Pourmalek; Mostafa Qorbani; Rynaz H S Rabiee; Anwar Rafay; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Murugesan Raju; Usha Ram; Saleem M Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Puja Rao; Amany H Refaat; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Serge Resnikoff; Alex Reynolds; David Rojas-Rueda; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Gregory A Roth; Ambuj Roy; George Mugambage Ruhago; Rajesh Sagar; Muhammad Muhammad Saleh; Juan R Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S Santos; João Vasco Santos; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Monika Sawhney; Ione J C Schneider; Ben Schöttker; David C Schwebel; Soraya Seedat; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Edson E Servan-Mori; Tesfaye Setegn; Saeid Shahraz; Masood Ali Shaikh; Marina Shakh-Nazarova; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jiabin Shen; Kevin N Sheth; Kenji Shibuya; Hwashin Hyun Shin; Min-Jeong Shin; Rahman Shiri; Ivy Shuie; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jonathan Silverberg; Edgar P Simard; Shireen Sindi; Abhishek Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Om Prakash Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Joan B Soriano; Sergey Soshnikov; Luciano A Sposato; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Nicholas Steel; Konstantinos Stroumpoulis; Lela Sturua; Bruno F Sunguya; Soumya Swaminathan; Bryan L Sykes; Cassandra E I Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Bineyam Taye; Bemnet Amare Tedla; Worku Mekonnen Tefera; Tesfaye Tekle; Girma Temam Shifa; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kiran Thapa; Alan J Thomson; Andrew L Thorne-Lyman; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Bach Xuan Tran; Christopher Troeger; Thomas Truelsen; Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene; Abera Kenay Tura; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N Ukwaja; Chigozie Jesse Uneke; Olalekan A Uthman; Masoud Vaezghasemi; Tommi Vasankari; Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Raj Kumar Verma; Francesco S Violante; Sergey K Vladimirov; Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Linhong Wang; Yanping Wang; Scott Weichenthal; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G Weintraub; Daniel J Weiss; Andrea Werdecker; Ronny Westerman; Marc-Alain Widdowson; Tissa Wijeratne; Thomas Neil Williams; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D A Wolfe; Ingrid Wolfe; Sungho Won; Mamo Wubshet; Qingyang Xiao; Gelin Xu; Ajit Kumar Yadav; Bereket Yakob; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Pengpeng Ye; Henock Gebremedhin Yebyo; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Hajo Zeeb; Hao Zhang; Yong Zhao; Yingfeng Zheng; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Christopher J L Murray
Background Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Methods Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1–4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980–2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age–sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7–6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7–53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3–43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6–2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1–57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6–3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. Interpretation Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license.
The overlapping burden of the three leading causes of disability and death in sub-Saharan African children
(Nature Research, 2022) Robert C. Reiner; Catherine A. Welgan; Christopher E. Troeger; Mathew M. Baumann; Daniel J. Weiss; Aniruddha Deshpande; Brigette F. Blacker; Molly K. Miller-Petrie; Lucas Earl; Samir Bhatt; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mohammad Aghaali; Budi Aji; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Saqib Ali; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Saeed Amini; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Davood Anvari; Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Maha Moh’d Wahbi Atout; Marcel Ausloos; Floriane Ausloos; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Yared Asmare Aynalem; Zelalem Nigussie Azene; Alaa Badawi; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Neeraj Bedi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Dinesh Bhandari; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Ali Bijani; Tesega Tesega Mengistu Birhanu; Zebenay Workneh Bitew; Archith Boloor; Oliver J. Brady; Zahid A. Butt; Josip Car; Felix Carvalho; Daniel C. Casey; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Camila H. Coelho; Aubrey J. Cook; Giovanni Damiani; Farah Daoud; Jiregna Darega Gela; Amira Hamed Darwish; Ahmad Daryani; Jai K. Das; Nicole Davis Weaver; Kebede Deribe; Assefa Desalew; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Fariba Dorostkar; Eleonora Dubljanin; Bereket Duko; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Andem Effiong; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Maha El Tantawi; Shymaa Enany; Nazir Fattahi; Valery L. Feigin; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Joseph Jon Frostad; Takeshi Fukumoto; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Hailemikael Gebrekidan G. K. Gebrekrstos; Leake Gebremeskel; Assefa Ayalew Gebreslassie; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Fikaden Berhe Hadgu; Samer Hamidi; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Khezar Hayat; Claudiu Herteliu; Hung Chak Ho; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jalil Jaafari; Tahereh Javaheri; Ravi Prakash Jha; Kimberly B. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Tanuj Kanchan; André Karch; Gbenga A. Kayode; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Khaled Khatab; Mona M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Neda Kianipour; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Sonali Kochhar; Ali Koolivand; Jacek A. Kopec; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Pushpendra Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Dian Kusuma; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Savita Lasrado; Carlo La Vecchia; Alice Lazzar-Atwood; Paul H. Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Sonia Lewycka; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Paulina A. Lindstedt; Xuefeng Liu; Joshua Longbottom; Alan D. Lopez; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Afshin Maleki; Abdullah A. Mamun; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Laurie B. Marczak; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Benjamin K. Mayala; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Addisu Melese; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; George A. Mensah; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Babak Moazen; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Shadieh Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Masoud Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Jonathan F. Mosser; Chrisopher J. L. Murray; Mehdi Naderi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ionut Negoi; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; QuynhAnh P. Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Andrew T. Olagunju; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Muktar Omer Omer; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Hai Quang Pham; David M. Pigott; Majid Pirestani; Maarten J. Postma; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Hadi Pourjafar; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Sowmya J. Rao; Puja C. Rao; Priya Rathi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Ana Isabel Ribeiro; Jennifer Rickard; Carlos Miguel Rios-González; Susan Fred Rumisha; Siamak Sabour; S. Mohammad Sajadi; Joshua A. Salomon; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Benn Sartorius; Deepak Saxena; Lauren E. Schaeffer; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Feng Sha; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Kenji Shibuya; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Biagio Simonetti; Jasvinder A. Singh; David L. Smith; Amin Soheili; Anton Sokhan; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Scott J. Swartz; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Yonas Getaye Tefera; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Zemenu Tadesse Tessema; Mariya Vladimirovna Titova; Bach Xuan Tran; Phuong N. Truong; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Yasser Vasseghian; Francesco S. Violante; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Emebet Gashaw Wassie; Fissaha Tekulu Welay; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Kirsten E. Wiens; Tissa Wijeratne; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Temesgen Gebeyehu Wondmeneh; Tomohide Yamada; Sanni Yaya; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Zoubida Zaidi; Maryam Zamanian; Alireza Zangeneh; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Simon I. Hay
Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The spatial burden of each of these diseases has been estimated subnationally across SSA, yet no prior analyses have examined the pattern of their combined burden. Here we synthesise subnational estimates of the burden of LRIs, diarrhoea, and malaria in children under-5 from 2000 to 2017 for 43 sub-Saharan countries. Some units faced a relatively equal burden from each of the three diseases, while others had one or two dominant sources of unit-level burden, with no consistent pattern geographically across the entire subcontinent. Using a subnational counterfactual analysis, we show that nearly 300 million DALYs could have been averted since 2000 by raising all units to their national average. Our findings are directly relevant for decision-makers in determining which and targeting where the most appropriate interventions are for increasing child survival. © 2022, The Author(s).