Browsing by Author "Tahvi D. Frank"

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Erratum: Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (The Lancet (2018) 392(10159) (1736–1788)(S0140673618322037)(10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7))
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
GBD 2017 Causes of Death Collaborators. Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet 2018; 392: 1736–88—The bottom row in figure 7 was cut off. This correction has been made to the online version as of Nov 9, 2018, and has been made to the printed Article. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2020) Cristiana Abbafati; Kaja M. Abbas; Mohammad Abbasi; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Ahmed Abdelalim; Mohammad Abdollahi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Aidin Abedi; Parisa Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Victor Aboyans; Elissa M. Abrams; Lucas Guimarães Abreu; Michael R.M. Abrigo; Abdulaziz Khalid Abu Haimed; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Alyssa Acebedo; Ilana N. Ackerman; Maryam Adabi; Tim Adair; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Jaimie D. Adelson; Abiodun Moshood Adeoye; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Davoud Adham; Shailesh M. Advani; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Emilie E. Agardh; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Kareha M. Agesa; Mohammad Aghaali; Seyed Mohammad Kazem Aghamir; Anurag Agrawal; Tauseef Ahmad; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Budi Aji; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Blessing Akombi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Noore Alam; Samiah Alam; Tahiya Alam; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Samuel B. Albertson; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Niguse Meles Alema; Biresaw Wassihun Alemu; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Khalid F. Alhabib; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Muhammad Ali; Saqib Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Cyrus Alinia; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Majid Abdulrahman Hamad Almadi; Ali Almasi; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Abdulaziz M. Almulhim; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Arwa Khalid Alumran; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. 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DeCleene; Amanda Deen; Louisa Degenhardt; Marissa DeLang; Robert Paul Dellavalle; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Desalegn Getnet Demsie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Nebiyu Dereje Dereje; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Rupak Desai; Assefa Desalew; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Keshab Deuba; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Martin Dichgans; Alireza Didarloo; Zachary V. Dingels; Ilse N. Dippenaar; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Hoa Thi Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christiane Dolecek; Andrew J. Dolgert; Fariba Dorostkar; Chirag P. Doshi; Pratik P. Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Abdel Douiri; Matthew C. Doxey; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Eleonora Dubljanin; Susanna J. Dunachie; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Arielle Wilder Eagan; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Mohammad Ebrahimi Kalan; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Joshua R. 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Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
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Roshchin; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; George Mugambage Ruhago; Soheil Saadat; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Mohamadreza Salahshoor; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael de Freitas Saldanha; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-NiÃ±o; Itamar S. Santos; JoÃ£o Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Vinod Scaria; Elke Schaeffner; Kathryn Schelonka; Maria InÃªs Schmidt; Ione J C. Schneider; Ben SchÃ¶ttker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson ServÃ¡n-Mori; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Raad A. Shakir; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Heidar Sharafi; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Meenakshi Sharma; Jayendra Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Kevin N. Sheth; Peilin Shi; Kenji Shibuya; Girma Temam Shifa; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Sharvari Rahul Shukla; Si Si
Background: Assessments of age-specifc mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Afairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally. Methods: The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specifc mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in diferent components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950. Findings: Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development. Interpretation: This analysis of age-sex-specifc mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The fndings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which refects signifcant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing. © 2018 The Author(s).
Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Gregory A. Roth; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Haftom Temesgen Abebe; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Mina G. Adib; Amha Admasie; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Jordi Alonso; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Olatunde Aremu; Johan Arnlov; Amit Arora; Monika Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Umar Bacha; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Maciej Banach; Kajori Banerjee; Marlena S. Bannick; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Simon Barquera; Lope H. Barrero; Quique Bassat; Sanjay Basu; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Bejot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Ezra Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Ashish Bhalla; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Brigette F. Blacker; Berrak Bora Basara; Rohan Borschmann; Cristina Bosetti; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Oliver J. Brady; Luisa C. Brant; Carol Brayne; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Mate Car; Rosario Cardenas; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castaneda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Chris D. Castle; Clara Castro; Franz Castro; Ferran Catala-Lopez; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Aaron J. Cohen; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Ewerton Cousin; Benjamin C. Cowie; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; John A. Crump; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; Jose Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Nicole Davis Weaver; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta T. Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Betsu Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Christl A. Donnelly; E. Ray Dorsey; Pratik P. Doshi; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim R. Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Dumessa Edessa; David Edvardsson; Anne Elise Eggen; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Christian Lycke Ellingsen; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Reza Esmaeili; Alireza Esteghamati; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Carla Fornari; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Furst; Joao M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Silvano Gallus; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Katherine B. Gibney; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Maurice Giroud; Giorgia Giussani; Shifalika Goenka; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gomez-Dantes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ayman Grada; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutierrez; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Nathaniel J. Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Pouria Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Hans W. Hoek; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Abdullatif Husseini; Mohammedaman Mama Hussen; Susan Hutfless; Bulat Idrisov; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Nazrul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Spencer L. James; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Kathy J. Jenkins; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jurisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Andre Karch; Corine Karema; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; Adane Teshome Kefale; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mona M. Khater; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Getiye D. Kibret; Zelalem Teklemariam Kidanemariam; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimaki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Pushpendra Kumar; Michael J. Kutz; Igor Kuzin; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Jennifer O. Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Sonia Lansky; Heidi J. Larson; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Georgy Lebedev; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Mostafa Leili; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Chris Lonsdale; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Rafael Lozano; Raimundas Lunevicius; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Dadi Marami; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Laurie Marczak; Ashley Marks; Guy B. Marks; Gabriel Martinez; Francisco Rogerlandio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried Marz; Melvin B. Marzan; Joseph R. Masci; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Prashant Mathur; Richard Matzopoulos; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Tefera C. Mekonnen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; G.K. Mini; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velasquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Simin Mouodi; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Jean B. Nachega; Gabriele Nagel; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles R.J. Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Sk Ong; Eyal Oren; Heather M. Orpana; Alberto Ortiz; Justin R. Ortiz; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; Raziye Ozdemir; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Smita Pakhale; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Jeyaraj Durai Pandian; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Michael R. Phillips; Frederic B. Piel; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Ashwini Pujar; Swayam Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; Hedley Quintana; D.Alex Quistberg; Kirankumar Waman Rade; Amir Radfar Anwar Rafay; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Sasa Rajsic; Usha Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Christian Razo-Garcia; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Shahab Rezaeian; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Maria Jesus Rios-Blancas; Kedir Teji Roba; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suarez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Ben Schottker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Servan-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Katya Anne Shackelford; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Farhad Shokraneh; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Donald H. Silberberg; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Natacha Torres Da Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Prashant Kumar Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Karen Sliwa; Mari Smith; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Eugene Sobngwi; Samir S. Soneji; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Joan B. Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Vasiliki Stathopoulou; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Leo G. Stewart; Mark A. Stokes; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabares-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Ken Takahashi; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Nuno Taveira; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Belay Tessema; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Amanda G. Thrift; George D. Thurston; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbes; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Suryakant Tripathi; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Nu Thi Truong; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Selen Begum Uzun; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Gaurang Vaidya; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Gregory R. Wagner; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Mitchell Taylor Wallin; Judd L. Walson; Yanping Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Molla Mesele Wassie; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; Adhena Ayaliew Werkneh; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka
Background: Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017. Methods: The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries—Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised. Findings: At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5–74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9–19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7–8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5–23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20–8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0–8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0–24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1–33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5–4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2–15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9–59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000–289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000–363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8–148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2–40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2–36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990—neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases—were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases. Interpretation: Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 359 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Molla Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Ilana N. Ackerman; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Zanfina Ademi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Anurag Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. 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Murthy; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Chie Nagata; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Nam Ba Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Shuhei Nomura; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Elaine O. Nsoesie; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Jacob Olusegun Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Ong; Eyal Oren; Alberto Ortiz; Erika Ota; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon Overland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Abhijit P. Pakhare; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; James Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Hadi Parsian; Yahya Pasdar; Shanti Patel; Snehal T. Patil; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Deepak Paudel; Katherine R. Paulson; Neil Pearce; Alexandre Pereira; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Max Petzold; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Oleguer Plana-Ripoll; Suzanne Polinder; Svetlana Popova; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Swayam Prakash; V. Prakash; Narayan Prasad; Caroline A. Purcell; Mostafa Qorbani; D. Alex Quistberg; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Zohreh Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; Prabhat Ranjan; Puja C. Rao; Davide Rasella; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Gregory A. Roth; Dietrich Rothenbacher; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. Sachdev; Nafis Sadat; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Nino; Damian Francesco Santomauro; Itamar S. Santos; Joao Vasco Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Ines Schmidt; Ione J.C. Schneider; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; James G. Scott; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Azadeh Shafieesabet; Mehdi Shahbazi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohammadbagher Shamsi; Heidar Sharafi; Kiomars Sharafi; Mehdi Sharif; Mahdi Sharif-Alhoseini; Jayendra Sharma; Rajesh Sharma; Jun She; Aziz Sheikh; Peilin Shi; Kenji Shibuya; Mekonnen Sisay Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Ivy Shiue; Yalda Shokoohinia; Farhad Shokraneh; Haitham Shoman; Mark G. Shrime; Si Si; Soraya Siabani; Abla Mehio Sibai; Tariq J. Siddiqi; Inga Dora Sigfusdottir; Rannveig Sigurvinsdottir; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Narayana Sarma Venkata Singam; Jasvinder A. Singh; Narinder Pal Singh; Virendra Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Eirini Skiadaresi; Vegard Skirbekk; Karen Sliwa; David L. Smith; Mari Smith; Adauto Martins Soares Filho; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Soheila Sobhani; Moslem Soofi; Reed J.D. Sorensen; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Vladimir I. Starodubov; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Timothy J. Steiner; Mark A. Stokes; Lars Jacob Stovner; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'Awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Gerhard Sulo; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick John Sur; Bryan L. Sykes; P.N. Sylaja; Dillon O. Sylte; Cassandra E.I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Hugh R. Taylor; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Belay Tessema; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Andrew Theis; Sathish Thirunavukkarasu; Nihal Thomas; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Jeffrey A. Towbin; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Christopher E. Troeger; Afewerki Gebremeskel Tsadik; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; Stefanos Tyrovolas; Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Pascual R. Valdez; Elena Varavikova; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Theo Vos; Kia Vosoughi; Isidora S. Vujcic; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Daniel J. Weiss; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; T. Eoin West; Ronny Westerman; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka; Tissa Wijeratne; Hywel C. Williams; Lauren B. Wilner; Shadrach Wilson; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Alison B. Wiyeh; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Anthony D. Woolf; Grant M.A. Wyper; Denis Xavier; Gelin Xu; Simon Yadgir; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Lijing L. Yan; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Yasin Jemal Yasin; Alex Yeshaneh; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Marcel Yotebieng; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Hamed Zandian; Heather J. Zar; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Ben Zipkin; Maigeng Zhou; Sanjay Zodpey; Inbar Zucker; Liesl Joanna Zuhlke; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background: How long one lives, how many years of life are spent in good and poor health, and how the population's state of health and leading causes of disability change over time all have implications for policy, planning, and provision of services. We comparatively assessed the patterns and trends of healthy life expectancy (HALE), which quantifies the number of years of life expected to be lived in good health, and the complementary measure of disability-adjusted lifeyears (DALYs), a composite measure of disease burden capturing both premature mortality and prevalence and severityof ill health, for 359 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories over the past 28 years. Methods We used data for age-speci?c mortality rates, years of life lost (YLLs) due to premature mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to calculate HALE and DALYs from 1990 to 2017. We calculated HALE using age-specific mortality rates and YLDs per capita for each location, age, sex, and year. We calculated DALYs for 359 causes as the sum of YLLs and YLDs. We assessed how observed HALE and DALYs differed by country and sex from expected trends based on Sociodemographic Index (SDI). We also analysed HALE by decomposing years of life gained into years spent in good health and in poor health, between 1990 and 2017, and extra years lived by females compared with males. Findings Globally, from 1990 to 2017, life expectancy at birth increased by 7·4 years (95% uncertainty interval 7·1-7·8), from 65·6 years (65·3-65·8) in 1990 to 73·0 years (72·7-73·3) in 2017. The increase in years of life varied from 5·1 years (5·0-5·3) in high SDI countries to 12·0 years (11·3-12·8) in low SDI countries. Of the additional years of life expected at birth, 26·3% (20·1-33·1) were expected to be spent in poor health in high SDI countries compared with 11·7% (8·8-15·1) in low-middle SDI countries. HALE at birth increased by 6·3 years (5·9-6·7), from 57·0 years (54·6-59·1) in 1990 to 63·3 years (60·5-65·7) in 2017. The increase varied from 3·8 years (3·4-4·1) in high SDI countries to 10·5 years (9·8-11·2) in low SDI countries. Even larger variations in HALE than these were observed between countries, ranging from 1·0 year (0·4-1·7) in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (62·4 years [59·9-64·7] in 1990 to 63·5 years [60·9-65·8] in 2017) to 23·7 years (21·9-25·6) in Eritrea (30·7 years [28·9-32·2] in 1990 to 54·4 years [51·5-57·1] in 2017). In most countries, the increase in HALE was smaller than the increase in overall life expectancy, indicating more years lived in poor health. In 180 of 195 countries and territories, females were expected to live longer than males in 2017, with extra years lived varying from 1·4 years (0·6-2·3) in Algeria to 11·9 years (10·9-12·9) in Ukraine. Of the extra years gained, the proportion spent in poor health varied largely across countries, with less than 20% of additional years spent in poor health in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, and Slovakia, whereas in Bahrain all the extra years were spent in poor health. In 2017, the highest estimate of HALE at birth was in Singapore for both females (75·8 years [72·4-78·7]) and males (72·6 years [69·8-75·0]) and the lowest estimates were in Central African Republic (47·0 years [43·7-50·2] for females and 42·8 years [40·1-45·6] for males). Globally, in 2017, the ?ve leading causes of DALYs were neonatal disorders, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, lower respiratory infections, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Between 1990 and 2017, age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 41·3% (38·8-43·5) for communicable diseases and by 49·8% (47·9-51·6) for neonatal disorders. For non-communicable diseases, global DALYs increased by 40·1% (36·8-43·0), although age-standardised DALY rates decreased by 18·1% (16·0-20·2). Interpretation With increasing life expectancy in most countries, the question of whether the additional years of life gained are spent in good health or poor health has been increasingly relevant because of the potential policy implications, such as health-care provisions and extending retirement ages. In some locations, a large proportion of those additional years are spent in poor health. Large inequalities in HALE and disease burden exist across countries in different SDI quintiles and between sexes. The burden of disabling conditions has serious implications for health system planning and health-related expenditures. Despite the progress made in reducing the burden of communicable diseases and neonatal disorders in low SDI countries, the speed of this progress could be increased by scaling up proven interventions. The global trends among non-communicable diseases indicate that more effort is needed to maximise HALE, such as risk prevention and attention to upstream determinants of health. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017
(Elsevier Ltd, 2019) Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Deepa Jahagirdar; Molly H. Biehl; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Samantha Leigh Larson; Megha Arora; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Krista M. Steuben; Hedayat Abbastabar; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Direslgne Misker Abyu; Maryam Adabi; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Alireza Ahmadi; Keivan Ahmadi; Elham Ahmadian; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Chalachew Genet Akal; Fares Alahdab; Noore Alam; Samuel B. Albertson; Birhan Tamene T. Alemnew; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Zohreh Anbari; Nahla Hamed Anber; Mina Anjomshoa; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Alebachew Fasil Ashagre; Daniel Asmelash; Anemaw A. Asrat; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Nefsu Awoke; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Alaa Badawi; Mojtaba Bagherzadeh; Maciej Banach; Aleksandra Barac; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Sanjay Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Saba Abraham Belay; Yared Belete Belay; Yaschilal Muche Muche Belayneh; Adugnaw Berhane; Anusha Ganapati Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Helen Bitew; Andrew Blinov; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Sharath B.N. Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Félix Carvalho; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Raquel Crider; Tukur Dahiru; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; José Das Neves; Jan-Walter De Neve; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Asmamaw Bizuneh Bizuneh Demis; Dereje Bayissa Demissie; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Don Des Jarlais; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Herbert Duber; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bereket Duko Adema; Andem Effiong; Aziz Eftekhari; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Oghenowede Eyawo; Farshad Farzadfar; Batool Fatima; Netsanet Fentahun; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin; Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel; Kelali Kalaye Gebreyohannes; Getnet Azeze Gedefaw; Belayneh K. Gelaw; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Birhanu Geta; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Themba T.G. Ginindza; Harish Chander Gugnani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Michael Tamene Haile; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Amir Hasanzadeh; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I. Hay; Andualem Henok; Chi Linh Hoang; H. Dean Hosgood; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Spencer L. James; Ensiyeh Jenabi; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amir Kasaeian; Belete Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Gbenga A. Kayode; Mihiretu M. Kebede; Adane Teshome Kefale; Andre Pascal Kengne; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Junaid Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Khaled Khatab; Salman Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Hamidreza Komaki; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Desmond Kuupiel; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Tsegaye Lolaso Lenjebo; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Marek Majdan; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Navid Manafi; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Anthony Masaka; Emmanuel Ngassa Laurent Mayenga; Varshil Mehta; Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Alemayehu Toma Mena; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Amjad Mohamadi-Bolbanabad; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Moslem Mohammadi; Roghayeh Mohammadibakhsh; Milad Mohammadoo-Khorasani; Jemal Abdu Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Yoshan Moodley; Maryam Moossavi; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Marilita M. Moschos; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Atalay Goshu Muluneh; Moses K. Muriithi; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gurudatta Naik; Farid Najafi; Javad Nazari; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mehdi Noroozi; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammed Suleiman Obsa; Emmanuel Ankrah Odame; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Anselm Okoro; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Solomon Olum; Kwaku Oppong Asante; Eyal Oren; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Amir H. Pakpour; Sangram Kishor Patel; Kebreab Paulos; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Akram Pourshams; Mostafa Qorbani; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Salman Rawaf; Cesar Reis; Vishnu Renjith; Melese Abate Reta; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Carlos Miguel Rios González; Elias E.M. Merdassa Roro; Ali Rostami; Salvatore Rubino; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Saeed Safari; Rajesh Sagar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Marwa R. Rashad Salem; Yahya Salimi; Joshua A. Salomon; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Benn Sartorius; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Seyedmojtaba Seyedmousavi; Hosein Shabaninejad; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Seifadin Ahmed Shallo; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Hamid Sharifi; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Reza Shirkoohi; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira; Jasvinder A. Singh; Malede Mequanent M. Sisay; Mekonnen Sisay; Solomon Sisay; Amanda E. Smith; Anton Sokhan; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Bryan L. Sykes; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Degena Bahrey Tadesse; Koku Sisay Tamirat; Nuno Taveira; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Habtamu Denekew Temesgen; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Manaye Yihune Teshale; Subash Thapa; Kenean Getaneh Tlaye; Stephanie M. Topp; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Irfan Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Olalekan A. Uthman; Yousef Veisani; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Fiseha Wadilo Wada; Yasir Waheed; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Girmay Teklay T. Weldesamuel; Ronny Westerman; Tissa Wijeratne; Haileab Fekadu Wolde; Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Berhanu Yazew Wondmagegn; Addisu Gize Yeshanew; Mekdes Tigistu Yilma; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Naohiro Yonemoto; Marcel Yotebieng; Yoosik Youm; Chuanhua Yu; Zoubida Zaidi; Afshin Zarghi; Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe; Taye Abuhay Zewale; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Stein Emil Vollset; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories. Methods We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package - a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce agesex- specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections. Findings Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets. Interpretation Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact. © 2019 The Author(s).
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Spencer L. James; Degu Abate; Kalkidan Hassen Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Zegeye Abebe; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Ilana N. Ackerman; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Mina G. Adib; Jose C. Adsuar; Kossivi Agbelenko Afanvi; Mohsen Afarideh; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Kareha M. Agesa; Rakesh Aggarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Amani Nidhal Aichour; Ibtihel Aichour; Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Ziyad Al-Aly; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Fares Alahdab; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Alaa Alashi; Seyed Moayed Alavian; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Mohamed M.L. Alouani; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Leopold N. Aminde; Walid Ammar; Yaw Ampem Amoako; Nahla Hamed Anber; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Jalal Arabloo; Antonio Arauz; Olatunde Aremu; Filippo Ariani; Bahram Armoon; Johan Ärnlöv; Amit Arora; Al Artaman; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Rana Jawad Asghar; Zerihun Ataro; Sachin R. Atre; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F.G.A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Rakesh Ayer; Peter S. Azzopardi; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Ayele Geleto Bali; Katherine E. Ballesteros; Shoshana H. Ballew; Maciej Banach; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Bernhard T. Baune; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Abate Bekele Belachew; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Isabela M. Bensenor; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Ver Bilano; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Donal Bisanzio; Brigette F. Blacker; Fiona M. Blyth; Ibrahim R. Bou-Orm; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Oliver J. Brady; Michael Brainin; Luisa C. Brant; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J.K. Breitborde; Hermann Brenner; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrew M. Briggs; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Rachelle Buchbinder; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Jorge Cano; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Alex R. Chang; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Fiona J. Charlson; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Josef Coresh; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Michael H. Criqui; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Marita Cross; John A. Crump; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Gail Davey; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Barbora De Courten; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Don C. Des Jarlais; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Doan; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; E. Ray Dorsey; Kerrie E. Doyle; Tim Robert Driscoll; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Soheil Ebrahimpour; Michelle Marie Echko; David Edvardsson; Andem Effiong; Joshua R. Ehrlich; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Ziad El-Khatib; Hajer Elkout; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Benjamin Er; Holly E. Erskine; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Hamed Fakhim; Vahid Fallah Omrani; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia Esá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Valery L. Feigin; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Alize J. Ferrari; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Jack Fox; Tahvi D. Frank; Takeshi Fukumoto; Nancy Fullman; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Neal D. Futran; Seana Gall; Morsaleh Ganji; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Ricard Genova-Maleras; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Khalil Ghasemi Falavarjani; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Mamata Ghimire; Rakesh Ghosh; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Hector Gómez-Dantés; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Morgan E. Grams; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander Gugnani; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Bishal Gyawali; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Alexis J. Handal; Graeme J. Hankey; Yuantao Hao; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Behzad Heibati; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Claudiu Herteliu; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn Tsegaw Hibstu; Huong Thanh Hoang; Hans W. Hoek; Howard J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Aung Soe Htet; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Chantal K. Huynh; Kim Moesgaard Iburg; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Bogdan Ileanu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed; Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Rizwan Kalani; Tanuj Kanchan; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; André Karch; Corine Karema; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Norito Kawakami; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Masoud Masoud Keighobadi; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Mohammad Khazaei; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Cho-Il Kim; Daniel Kim; Pauline Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Mika Kivimäki; Ann Kristin Skrindo Knudsen; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Sonali Kochhar; Yoshihiro Kokubo; Tufa Kolola; Jacek A. Kopec; Soewarta Kosen; Georgios A. Kotsakis; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Michael A. Kravchenko; Kewal Krishan; Kristopher J. Krohn; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Deepesh P. Lad; Sheetal D. Lad; Alessandra Lafranconi; Ratilal Lalloo; Tea Lallukka; Faris Hasan Lami; Van C. Lansingh; Arman Latifi; Kathryn Mei-Ming Lau; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Janet L. Leasher; Jorge R. Ledesma; Paul H. Lee; James Leigh; Janni Leung; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Yichong Li; Yu Liao; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. Lim; Shiwei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Katharine J. Looker; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Nicola Low; Rafael Lozano; Tim C.D. Lucas; Lydia R. Lucchesi; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Stefan Ma; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Fabiana Madotto; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Hue Thi Mai; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Helena Manguerra; Treh Manhertz; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Winfried März; Melvin B. Marzan; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Kunihiro Matsushita; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Tesfa Mekonen; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Michele Meltzer; Peter T.N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Benjamin Miltz; G.K. Mini; Mojde Mirarefin; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Habtamu Mitiku; Babak Moazen; Bahram Mohajer; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Farnam Mohebi; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Yoshan Moodley; Mahmood Moosazadeh; Ghobad Moradi; Maziar Moradi-Lakeh; Mehdi Moradinazar; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Ilais Moreno Velásquez; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Marilita M. Moschos; Seyyed Meysam Mousavi; Kalayu Brhane Mruts; Achenef Asmamaw Muche; Kindie Fentahun Muchie; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Oumer Sada Muhammed; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Kate Muller; John Everett Mumford; Manoj Murhekar; Jonah Musa; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf F. Nabhan; Chie Nagata; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Gurudatta Naik; Nitish Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gopalakrishnan Natarajan; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Quynh Nguyen; Ha Thu Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Long Hoang Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Nam Ba Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Shuhei Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Elaine O. Nsoesie; Peter S. Nyasulu; Christopher M. Odell; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Pedro R. Olivares; Helen Elizabeth Olsen; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Kanyin L. Ong; Sok King Ong; Eyal Oren; Alberto Ortiz; Erika Ota; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Simon øverland; Mayowa Ojo Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Rosana Pacella; Amir H. Pakpour; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Andrea Parisi; Eun-Kee Park; Charles D.H. Parry; Shanti Patel; Sanghamitra Pati; Snehal T. Patil; Ajay Patle; George C. Patton; Vishnupriya Rao Paturi; Katherine R. Paulson; Neil Pearce; David M. Pereira; Norberto Perico; Konrad Pesudovs; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; David M. Pigott; Julian David Pillay; Michael A. Piradov; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Farhad Pishgar; Oleguer Plana-Ripoll; Dietrich Plass; Suzanne Polinder; Svetlana Popova; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Dorairaj Prabhakaran; Swayam Prakash; V. Prakash; Caroline A. Purcell; Manorama B. Purwar; Mostafa Qorbani; D. Alex Quistberg; Amir Radfar; Anwar Rafay; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Kazem Rahimi; Afarin Rahimi-Movaghar; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Sajjad Ur Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Fatemeh Rajati; Usha Ram; Prabhat Ranjan; Anna Ranta; Puja C. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; K. Srinath Reddy; Robert C. Reiner; Nickolas Reinig; Marissa Bettay Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Serge Resnikoff; Satar Rezaei; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Stephen R. Robinson; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ali Rostami; Gregory A. Roth; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; Perminder S. 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Soriano; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Luciano A. Sposato; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vinay Srinivasan; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Dan J. Stein; Caitlyn Steiner; Timothy J. Steiner; Mark A. Stokes; Lars Jacob Stovner; Michelle L. Subart; Agus Sudaryanto; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Bruno F. Sunguya; Patrick John Sur; Ipsita Sutradhar; Bryan L. Sykes; Dillon O. Sylte; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Nikhil Tandon; Segen Gebremeskel Tassew; Mohammad Tavakkoli; Nuno Taveira; Hugh R. Taylor; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Tigist Gashaw Tekalign; Shishay Wahdey Tekelemedhin; Merhawi Gebremedhin Tekle; Habtamu Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Omar Temsah; Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi; Mebrahtu Teweldemedhin; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Nihal Thomas; Binyam Tilahun; Quyen G. To; Marcello Tonelli; Roman Topor-Madry; Fotis Topouzis; Anna E. Torre; Miguel Tortajada-Girbés; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Jeffrey A. Towbin; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Christopher E. Troeger; Thomas Clement Truelsen; Miltiadis K. Tsilimbaris; Derrick Tsoi; Lorainne Tudor Car; E. Murat Tuzcu; Kingsley N. Ukwaja; Irfan Ullah; Eduardo A. Undurraga; Jurgen Unutzer; Rachel L. Updike; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Olalekan A. Uthman; Muthiah Vaduganathan; Afsane Vaezi; Pascual R. Valdez; Santosh Varughese; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Santos Villafaina; Francesco S. Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Stein Emil Vollset; Kia Vosoughi; Isidora S. Vujcic; Fasil Shiferaw Wagnew; Yasir Waheed; Stephen G. Waller; Yafeng Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Elisabete Weiderpass; Robert G. Weintraub; Daniel J. Weiss; Fitsum Weldegebreal; Kidu Gidey Weldegwergs; Andrea Werdecker; T. Eoin West; Harvey A. Whiteford; Justyna Widecka; Tissa Wijeratne; Lauren B. Wilner; Shadrach Wilson; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Alison B. Wiyeh; Charles Shey Wiysonge; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Anthony D. Woolf; Shouling Wu; Yun-Chun Wu; Grant M.A. Wyper; Denis Xavier; Gelin Xu; Simon Yadgir; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Tomohide Yamada; Lijing L. Yan; Yuichiro Yano; Mehdi Yaseri; Yasin Jemal Yasin; Alex Yeshaneh; Ebrahim M. Yimer; Paul Yip; Engida Yisma; Naohiro Yonemoto; Seok-Jun Yoon; Marcel Yotebieng; Mustafa Z. Younis; Mahmoud Yousefifard; Chuanhua Yu; Vesna Zadnik; Zoubida Zaidi; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mohammad Zamani; Zohreh Zare; Ayalew Jejaw Zeleke
Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs 1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
Global, regional, and national sex differences in the global burden of tuberculosis by HIV status, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Avina Vongpradith; Emilie R. Maddison; Amanda Novotney; Molly H. Biehl; Kate E. Legrand; Jennifer M. Ross; Deepa Jahagirdar; Dana Bryazka; Rachel Feldman; Hassan Abolhassani; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Yosef Alemayehu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Hesam Alizade; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Arianna Maever L. Amit; Jason A. Anderson; Sofa Androudi; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Catherine M. Antony; Razique Anwer; Jalal Arabloo; Asrat Arja; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Gulrez Shah Azhar; B.B. Darshan; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Natalia V. Bhattacharjee; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Archith Boloor; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Zahid A. Butt; Austin Carter; Felix Carvalho; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Mareli M. Claassens; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Parnaz Daneshpajouhnejad; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Linh Phuong Doan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Muhammed Elhadi; Amir Emami; Shymaa Enany; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Farshad Farzadfar; Eduarda Fernandes; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Tahvi D. Frank; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Christian Garcia-Calavaro; Tushar Garg; Biniyam Sahiledengle Geberemariyam; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Mahaveer Golechha; Amador Goodridge; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shaful Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Jalil Jaafari; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Vardhmaan Jain; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Zubair Kabir; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Parkes J. Kendrick; Amene Abebe Kerbo; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Khaled Khatab; Abdullah T. Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Avinash Kumar; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Rafael Lozano; Daiane Borges Machado; Shilpashree Madhava Kunjathur; Deepak Madi; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Saurabh Mehta; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Nour Mheidly Mheidly; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafu Mohammed; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Catrin E. Moore; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Sanjeev Nair; Suma Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Eyal Oren; P.A. Mahesh; Ramakrishnan Parthasarathi; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Rajan Paudel; Pintu Paul; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Norberto Perico; Majid Pirestani; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Akila Prashant; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Melese Abate Reta; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Gholamreza Roshandel; Denis O. Roshchin; Siamak Sabour; K.M. Saif-Ur-rahman; Nasir Salam; Hossein Samadi Kafl; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Satish Saroshe; Benn Sartorius; Brijesh Sathian; Susan M. Sawyer; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharaf; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; João Pedro Silva; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Smriti Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufyan; Takahiro Tabuchi; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Zemenu Tamir; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Bach Xuan Tran; Berhan Tsegaye; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Magdalene K. Walters; Joanna L. Whisnant; Mesfn Agachew Woldekidan; Befkadu Legesse Wubishet; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Ali H. Mokdad; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Stephen S. Lim; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Tuberculosis is a major contributor to the global burden of disease, causing more than a million deaths annually. Given an emphasis on equity in access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis in global health targets, evaluations of differences in tuberculosis burden by sex are crucial. We aimed to assess the levels and trends of the global burden of tuberculosis, with an emphasis on investigating differences in sex by HIV status for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We used a Bayesian hierarchical Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) platform to analyse 21 505 site-years of vital registration data, 705 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis among HIV-negative individuals. We used a population attributable fraction approach to estimate mortality related to HIV and tuberculosis coinfection. A compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR 2.1) was then used to synthesise all available data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, population-based tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis cause-specific mortality, to produce estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality that were internally consistent. We further estimated the fraction of tuberculosis mortality that is attributable to independent effects of risk factors, including smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes, for HIV-negative individuals. For individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, we assessed mortality attributable to HIV risk factors including unsafe sex, intimate partner violence (only estimated among females), and injection drug use. We present 95% uncertainty intervals for all estimates. Findings: Globally, in 2019, among HIV-negative individuals, there were 1·18 million (95% uncertainty interval 1·08–1·29) deaths due to tuberculosis and 8·50 million (7·45–9·73) incident cases of tuberculosis. Among HIV-positive individuals, there were 217 000 (153 000–279 000) deaths due to tuberculosis and 1·15 million (1·01–1·32) incident cases in 2019. More deaths and incident cases occurred in males than in females among HIV-negative individuals globally in 2019, with 342 000 (234 000–425 000) more deaths and 1·01 million (0·82–1·23) more incident cases in males than in females. Among HIV-positive individuals, 6250 (1820–11 400) more deaths and 81 100 (63 300–100 000) more incident cases occurred among females than among males in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates among HIV-negative males were more than two times greater in 105 countries and age-standardised incidence rates were more than 1·5 times greater in 74 countries than among HIV-negative females in 2019. The fraction of global tuberculosis deaths among HIV-negative individuals attributable to alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes was 4·27 (3·69–5·02), 6·17 (5·48–7·02), and 1·17 (1·07–1·28) times higher, respectively, among males than among females in 2019. Among individuals with HIV and tuberculosis coinfection, the fraction of mortality attributable to injection drug use was 2·23 (2·03–2·44) times greater among males than females, whereas the fraction due to unsafe sex was 1·06 (1·05–1·08) times greater among females than males. Interpretation: As countries refine national tuberculosis programmes and strategies to end the tuberculosis epidemic, the excess burden experienced by males is important. Interventions are needed to actively communicate, especially to men, the importance of early diagnosis and treatment. These interventions should occur in parallel with efforts to minimise excess HIV burden among women in the highest HIV burden countries that are contributing to excess HIV and tuberculosis coinfection burden for females. Placing a focus on tuberculosis burden among HIV-negative males and HIV and tuberculosis coinfection among females might help to diminish the overall burden of tuberculosis. This strategy will be crucial in reaching both equity and burden targets outlined by global health milestones. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990–2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Deepa Jahagirdar; Magdalene K. Walters; Amanda Novotney; Edmond D. Brewer; Tahvi D. Frank; Austin Carter; Molly H. Biehl; Hedayat Abbastabar; E.S. Abhilash; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Victor Adekanmbi; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saira Afzal; Soodabeh Aghababaei; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ehsan Ahmadpour; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Ekaterina A. Aleksandrova; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Davood Anvari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Judie Arulappan; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Muluken Altaye Ayza; Samad Azari; B.B. Darshan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Habtamu Gebrehana Belay; Tezera Moshago Berheto; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Catherine Bisignano; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Azizbek A. Boltaev; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Zahid A. Butt; Chao Cao; Jaykaran Charan; Souranshu Chatterjee; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Dinh-Toi Chu; Rosa A.S. Couto; Richard G. Cowden; Berihun Assefa Dachew; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; José das Neves; Louisa Degenhardt; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Keshab Deuba; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Govinda Prasad Dhungana; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Andem Effiong; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Rajesh Elayedath; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Ziad El-Khatib; Aisha Elsharkawy; Aklilu Endalamaw; Aman Yesuf Endries; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Ifeanyi Jude Ezeonwumelu; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammad Farahmand; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Tushar Garg; Reta Tsegaye Gayesa; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Hailay Abrha Gesesew; Abera Getachew Obsa; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Ionela-Roxana Glăvan; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Harish Chander Gugnani; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Samer Hamidi; Senad Handanagic; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Abdiwahab Hashi; Shoaib Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Khezar Hayat; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Praveen Hoogar; Mohammad Enamul Hoque; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mohamed Hsairi; Rabia Hussain; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Bulat Idrisov; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; M. Mofizul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Ramaiah Itumalla; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Vardhmaan Jain; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Getinet Kassahun; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Ermiyas Mulu Kebede; Hafte Kahsay Kebede; Himanshu Khajuria; Nauman Khalid; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Khaled Khatab; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Sonali Kochhar; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Alexander Kwarteng; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Zohra S. Lassi; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Jane Jean-Hee Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Christine Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Emilie R. Maddison; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Ahmad Azam Malik; Wondimu Ayele Manamo; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Ziad A. Memish; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Hayimro Edemealem Merie; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Peter Meylakhs; Nour Mheidly; Ted R. Miller; Andreea Mirica; Babak Moazen; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Yousef Moradi; Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa; Sumaira Mubarik; Sandra B. Munro; Lillian Mwanri; Jean B. Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Georges Nguefack-Tsague; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Molly R. Nixon; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Thomas Elliot Nyirenda; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Oluwatomi Funbi Owopetu; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Smita Pakhale; Tarang Parekh; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Shrikant Pawar; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Marina Pinheiro; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Roman V. Polibin; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Pradhum Ram; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Lemma Demissie Regassa; Inayat ur Rehman; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Omid Rezahosseini; Mohammad Sadegh Rezai; Aziz Rezapour; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Voilet Rodrigues; Denis O. Roshchin; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Umar Saeed; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Rajesh Sagar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Marwa Rashad Salem; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Satish Saroshe; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Monika Sawhney; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Feyisso Shaka; Hina Shamshad; Morteza Shamsizadeh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Adithi Shetty; Jae Il Shin; K.M. Shivakumar; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ranjani Somayaji; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Hooman Tadbiri; Birkneh Tilahun Tadesse; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nuno Taveira; Yohannes Tekalegn; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Alexander C. Tsai; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Saif Ullah; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Jorge Hugo Villafañe; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Avina Vongpradith; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Guan Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Taklo Simeneh Yazie; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiğit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Alimuddin Zumla; Joshua A. Salomon; Jeffrey W. Eaton; Mohsen Naghavi; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Haidong Wang; Stephen S. Lim; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J.L. Murray; Hmwe H. Kyu
Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
(Lancet Publishing Group, 2018) Rafael Lozano; Nancy Fullman; Degu Abate; Solomon M. Abay; Cristiana Abbafati; Nooshin Abbasi; Hedayat Abbastabar; Foad Abd-Allah; Jemal Abdela; Ahmed Abdelalim; Omar Abdel-Rahman; Alireza Abdi; Ibrahim Abdollahpour; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Nebiyu Dereje Abebe; Zegeye Abebe; Ayenew Negesse Abejie; Semaw F. Abera; Olifan Zewdie Abil; Victor Aboyans; Haftom Niguse Abraha; Aklilu Roba Abrham; Laith Jamal Abu-Raddad; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Gebre Y. Abyu; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Dilaram Acharya; Pawan Acharya; Abdu A. Adamu; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O. Adetokunboh; Beyene Meressa Adhena; Tara Ballav Adhikari; Mina G. Adib; Arsène Kouablan Adou; Jose C. Adsuar; Mohsen Afarideh; Mahdi Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Sargis Aghasi Aghayan; Dominic Agius; Anurag Agrawal; Sutapa Agrawal; Alireza Ahmadi; Mehdi Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Sayem Ahmed; Temesgen Yihunie Akalu; Ali S. Akanda; Mohammad Esmaeil Akbari; Mohammed Akibu; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Tomi Akinyemiju; Nadia Akseer; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Tahiya Alam; Ammar Albujeer; Animut Alebel; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Samia Alhabib; Raghib Ali; Mehran Alijanzadeh; Reza Alizadeh-Navaei; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Ala'a Alkerwi; François Alla; Peter Allebeck; Christine A. Allen; Ali Almasi; Fatma Al-Maskari; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Jordi Alonso; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Ubai Alsharif; Khalid Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Azmeraw T. Amare; Kebede Amenu; Erfan Amini; Walid Ammar; Nahla Hamed Anber; Jason A. Anderson; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Sofia Androudi; Megbaru Debalkie Animut; Mina Anjomshoa; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Mustafa Geleto Ansha; Carl Abelardo T. Antonio; Palwasha Anwari; Lambert Tetteh Appiah; Olatunde Aremu; Habtamu Abera Areri; Johan Ärnlöv; Monika Arora; Krishna K. Aryal; Hamid Asayesh; Ephrem Tsegay Asfaw; Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom; Rana Jawad Asghar; Reza Assadi; Zerihun Ataro; Suleman Atique; Sachin R. Atre; Madhu Sudhan Atteraya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Euripide F. G. A. Avokpaho; Ashish Awasthi; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Henok Tadesse Ayele; Yohanes Ayele; Rakesh Ayer; Mahmoud Reza Azarpazhooh; Peter S. Azzopardi; Natasha Azzopardi-Muscat; Tesleem Kayode Babalola; Arefeh Babazadeh; Hamid Badali; Alaa Badawi; Kalpana Balakrishnan; Ayele Geleto Bali; Maciej Banach; Amitava Banerjee; Joseph Adel Mattar Banoub; Amrit Banstola; Aleksandra Barac; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H. Barrero; Celine M. Barthelemy; Quique Bassat; Arindam Basu; Sanjay Basu; Robert J. Battista; Bernhard T. Baune; Habtamu Wondifraw Baynes; Shahrzad Bazargan-Hejazi; Neeraj Bedi; Ettore Beghi; Masoud Behzadifar; Meysam Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Bayu Begashaw Bekele; Abate Bekele Belachew; Aregawi Gebreyesus Belay; Saba Abraham Belay; Yihalem Abebe Belay; Michelle L. Bell; Aminu K. Bello; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Habib Benzian; Adugnaw Berhane; Abadi Kidanemariam Berhe; Adam E. Berman; Eduardo Bernabe; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Mircea Beuran; Tina Beyranvand; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Anil Bhansali; Suraj Bhattarai; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Belete Biadgo; Molly H. Biehl; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Nigus Bililign; Muhammad Shahdaat Bin Sayeed; Sait Mentes Birlik; Charles Birungi; Donal Bisanzio; Tuhin Biswas; Helen Bitew; Hailemichael Bizuneh; Espen Bjertness; Eshetu Mulisa Bobasa; Soufiane Boufous; Rupert Bourne; Kayvan Bozorgmehr; Nicola Luigi Bragazzi; Michael Brainin; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Paul Svitil Briant; Gabrielle Britton; Traolach Brugha; Gene Bukhman; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A. Butt; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Charlton S.K.H. Callender; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Jorge Cano; Josip Car; Mate Car; Rosario Cárdenas; Juan J. Carrero; Austin Carter; Félix Carvalho; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Jacqueline Castillo Rivas; Franz Castro; Kate Causey; Alanur Çavlin; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Yazan Chaiah; Julian Chalek; Hsing-Yi Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Aparajita Chattopadhyay; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang; Ken Lee Chin; Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa; Abdulaal Chitheer; Jee-Young J. Choi; Rajiv Chowdhury; Hanne Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Sheng-Chia Chung; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Liliana G. Ciobanu; Massimo Cirillo; Rafael M. Claro; Thomas Khaled Dwayne Claßen; Aaron J. Cohen; Daniel Collado-Mateo; Cyrus Cooper; Leslie Trumbull Cooper; Leslie Cornaby; Monica Cortinovis; Megan Costa; Ewerton Cousin; Elizabeth A. Cromwell; Christopher Stephen Crowe; Matthew Cunningham; Alemneh Kabeta Daba; Abel Fekadu Dadi; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anh Kim Dang; Paul I. Dargan; Ahmad Daryani; Siddharth K. Das; Rajat Das Gupta; José Das Neves; Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa; Aditya Prasad Dash; Adrian C. Davis; Dragos Virgil Davitoiu; Kairat Davletov; Anand Dayama; Barbora De Courten; Diego De Leo; Jan-Walter De Neve; Hans De Steur; Meaza Girma Degefa; Louisa Degenhardt; Tizta Tilahun Degfie; Selina Deiparine; Robert P. Dellavalle; Gebre Teklemariam Demoz; Balem Demtsu; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Kebede Deribe; Nikolaos Dervenis; Getenet Ayalew Dessie; Subhojit Dey; Samath D. Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Dicker; Mesfin Tadese Dinberu; Eric L. Ding; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Klara Dokova; David Teye Doku; Dirk Douwes-Schultz; Tim Robert Driscoll; Leilei Duan; Manisha Dubey; Eleonora Dubljanin; Eyasu Ejeta Duken; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre R. Duraes; Soheil Ebrahimpour; David Edvardsson; Charbel El Bcheraoui; Erika Eldrenkamp; Ziad El-Khatib; Iqbal R.F. Elyazar; Ahmadali Enayati; Aman Yesuf Endries; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Alireza Esteghamati; Sadaf Esteghamati; Kara Estep; Mahdi Fakhar; Hamed Fakhim; Jessica Fanzo; Mahbobeh Faramarzi; Mohammad Fareed; Farzaneh Farhadi; Talha A. Farid; Carla Sofia E. Sá Farinha; Andrea Farioli; Andre Faro; Maryam S. Farvid; Farshad Farzadfar; Mohammad Hosein Farzaei; Hossein Farzam; Ali Akbar Fazaeli; Mir Sohail Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Andrea B. Feigl; Wubalem Fekadu; Rachel Feldman; Netsanet Fentahun; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Joao C. Fernandes; Garumma Tolu Feyissa; Daniel Obadare Fijabi; Irina Filip; Samuel Finegold; Jonas David Finger; Florian Fischer; Christina Fitzmaurice; Luisa Sorio Flor; Nataliya A. Foigt; Kyle J. Foreman; Tahvi D. Frank; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Kai Fukutaki; John E. Fuller; Thomas Fürst; João M. Furtado; Emmanuela Gakidou; Silvano Gallus; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Ron T. Gansevoort; Ana Cristina Garcia; Alberto L. Garcia-Basteiro; Miguel A. Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Abadi Kahsu Gebre; Teshome Gebre; Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs; Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot; Amanuel Tesfay Gebremedhin; Bereket Gebremichael; Teklu Gebrehiwo Gebremichael; Tilayie Feto Gelano; Johanna M. Geleijnse; Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo; Sefonias Getachew; Peter W. Gething; Kebede Embaye Gezae; Mohammad Rasoul Ghadami; Reza Ghadimi; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Maryam Ghasemi-Kasman; Hesam Ghiasvand; Mamata Ghimire; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Simona Giampaoli; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Giorgia Giussani; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Ellen M. Goldberg; Srinivas Goli; Philimon N. Gona; Amador Goodridge; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Taren M. Gorman; Atsushi Goto; Alessandra C. Goulart; Bárbara Niegia Garcia Goulart; Ayman Grada; Max G. Griswold; Giuseppe Grosso; Harish Chander C. Gugnani; Francis Guillemin; Andre Luiz Sena Guimaraes; Yuming Guo; Prakash C. Gupta; Rahul Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Tanush Gupta; Giang Hai Ha; Juanita A. Haagsma; Vladimir Hachinski; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Hassan Haghparast Bidgoli; Tekleberhan B. Hagos; Michael Tamene Haile; Tewodros Tesfa Hailegiyorgis; Gessessew Bugssa Hailu; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Arya Haj-Mirzaian; Randah R. Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Hilda L. Harb; Sivadasanpillai Harikrishnan; Hamidreza Haririan; Josep Maria Haro; Mehedi Hasan; Hadi Hassankhani; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus Havmoeller; Caitlin N. Hawley; Simon I. Hay; Yihua He; Akbar Hedayatizadeh-Omran; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Behzad Heibati; Behnam Heidari; Mohsen Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Andualem Henok; Ileana Heredia-Pi; Claudiu Herteliu; Behzad Heydarpour; Fatemeh Heydarpour; Sousan Heydarpour; Desalegn T. Hibstu; Martha Híjar; Hans W. Hoek; Daniel J. Hoffman; Michael K. Hole; Enayatollah Homaie Rad; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; H. Dean Hosgood; Seyed Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Peter J. Hotez; Damian G. Hoy; Mohamed Hsairi; Thomas Hsiao; Guoqing Hu; John J. Huang; Caitlyn Hughes; Chantal K. Huynh; Ehimario U. Igumbor; Chad Thomas Ikeda; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Rebecca Q. Ivers; Neda Izadi; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Leila Jahangiry; Nader Jahanmehr; Sudhir Kumar Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Moti Tolera Jalu; Amr A. Jamal; Spencer L. James; Simerjot K. Jassal; Mehdi Javanbakht; Achala Upendra Jayatilleke; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; John S. Ji; Catherine O. Johnson; Sarah C. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Jitendra Jonnagaddala; Zahra Jorjoran Shushtari; Ankur Joshi; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Suresh Banayya Jungari; Mikk Jürisson; K. Madhanraj; Zubair Kabir; Rajendra Kadel; Amaha Kahsay; Molla Kahssay; Rizwan Kalani; Umesh Kapil; Manoochehr Karami; Behzad Karami Matin; Marina Karanikolos; Narges Karimi; Seyed M. Karimi; Hamidreza Karimi-Sari; Amir Kasaeian; Dessalegn H. Kassa; Getachew Mullu Kassa; Tesfaye Dessale Kassa; Zemenu Yohannes Kassa; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Anil Kaul; Norito Kawakami; Zhila Kazemi; Ali Kazemi Karyani; Dhruv Satish Kazi; K.C. Prakash; Seifu Kebede; Peter Njenga Keiyoro; Laura Kemmer; Grant Rodgers Kemp; Andre Pascal Kengne; Andre Keren; Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran; Yousef Saleh Khader; Behzad Khafaei; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Alireza Khajavi; Nauman Khalid; Ibrahim A. Khalil; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Muhammad Ali Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Tripti Khanna; Mona M. Khater; Alireza Khatony; Zahra Khazaeipour; Habibolah Khazaie; Abdullah T. Khoja; Ardeshir Khosravi; Mohammad Hossein Khosravi; Jagdish Khubchandani; Aliasghar A. Kiadaliri; Helen W. Kiarie; Getiye D. Kibret; Daniel N. Kiirithio; Daniel Kim; Jun Y. Kim; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Yohannes Kinfu; Sanjay Kinra; Adnan Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Niranjan Kissoon; Mika Kivimäki; Jonathan M. 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Leever; James Leigh; Mall Leinsalu; Cheru Tesema Leshargie; Janni Leung; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Xiaohong Li; Yichong Li; Juan Liang; Xiaofeng Liang; Misgan Legesse Liben; Lee-Ling Lim; Miteku Andualem Limenih; Shai Linn; Shiwei Liu; Yang Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Paulo A. Lotufo; Lydia R. Lucchesi; Ronan A. Lyons; Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan; Mark T. Mackay; Emilie R. Maddison; Fabiana Madotto; Dhaval P. Maghavani; Carlos Magis-Rodriguez; Narayan Bahadur Mahotra; Marek Majdan; Reza Majdzadeh; Azeem Majeed; Reza Malekzadeh; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Ana-Laura Manda; Luiz Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Srikanth Mangalam; Helena Manguerra; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Chabila Christopher Mapoma; Joemer C. Maravilla; Wagner Marcenes; Ashley Marks; Randall V. Martin; Sheila C. O. Martins; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Ira Martopullo; Tivani Phosa Mashamba-Thompson; Benjamin Ballard Massenburg; Manu Raj Mathur; Pallab K. Maulik; Mohsen Mazidi; Colm McAlinden; John J. McGrath; Martin McKee; Brian J. McMahon; Suresh Mehata; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ravi Mehrotra; Kala M. Mehta; Varshil Mehta; Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez; Tesfa Mekonen; Tefera C. Chane Mekonnen; Hagazi Gebre Meles; Addisu Melese; Mulugeta Melku; Peter T. N. Memiah; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Desalegn Tadese Mengistu; Getnet Mengistu; George A. Mensah; Gert B. M. Mensink; Seid Tiku Mereta; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Haftay Berhane Mezgebe; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Anoushka I. Millear; Ted R. Miller; Molly Katherine Miller-Petrie; George J. Milne; G.K. Mini; Shawn P. Minnig; Parvaneh Mirabi; Mojde Mirarefin; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Philip B. Mitchell; Babak Moazen; Ali Akbar Moghadamnia; Bahram Mohajer; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Moslem Mohammadi; Noushin Mohammadifard; Mousa Mohammadnia-Afrouzi; Mohammed A. Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Murali B. V. 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Nachega; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Gabriele Nagel; Mohsen Naghavi; Aliya Naheed; Azin Nahvijou; Kovin Naidoo; Gurudatta Naik; Nitish Naik; Farid Najafi; Luigi Naldi; Hae Sung Nam; Vinay Nangia; Jobert Richie Nansseu; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Haseeb Nawaz; Nahid Neamati; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Subas Neupane; Charles Richard James Newton; Frida N. Ngalesoni; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Anh Nguyen; Grant Nguyen; Ha Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Huong Thanh Nguyen; Minh Nguyen; Emma Nichols; Solomon Gedlu Nigatu; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Yirga Legesse Nirayo; Muhammad Imran Nisar; Molly R. Nixon; Nomonde Nolutshungu; Marika Nomura; Ole F. Norheim; Mehdi Noroozi; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Hamid Reza Nouri; Malihe Nourollahpour Shiadeh; Mohammad Reza Nowroozi; Peter S. Nyasulu; Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer; Richard Ofori-Asenso; Okechukwu Samuel Ogah; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; In-Hwan Oh; Anselm Okoro; Kelechi E. Oladimeji; Olanrewaju Oladimeji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. 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Roth; Ambuj Roy; Enrico Rubagotti; George Mugambage Ruhago; Yogesh Damodar Sabde; Perminder S. Sachdev; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Hosein Safari; Yahya Safari; Roya Safari-Faramani; Mahdi Safdarian; Sare Safi; Saeid Safiri; Rajesh Sagar; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Haniye Sadat Sajadi; Nasir Salam; Joseph S. Salama; Payman Salamati; Raphael De Freitas Saldanha; Zikria Saleem; Yahya Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Joshua A. Salomon; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Inbal Salz; Evanson Zondani Sambala; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Maria Dolores Sanchez-Niño; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Mayank Sardana; Abdur Razzaque Sarker; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Benn Sartorius; Shahabeddin Sarvi; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Miloje Savic; Arundhati R. Sawant; Monika Sawhney; Sonia Saxena; Mete Saylan; Mehdi Sayyah; Elke Schaeffner; Maria Inês Schmidt; Ione J. C. Schneider; Ben Schöttker; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; David C. Schwebel; Falk Schwendicke; Soraya Seedat; Mario Sekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Edson Serván-Mori
Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license