Browsing by Author "Xiaochen Dai"

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Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Amy E. Peden; Patricia Cullen; Kate Louise Francis; Holger Moeller; Margaret M. Peden; Pengpeng Ye; Maoyi Tian; Zhiyong Zou; Susan M. Sawyer; Amirali Aali; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Meriem Abdoun; Rami Abd-Rabu; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Ame Mehadi Abdurehman; Getachew Abebe; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu Gharbieh; Denberu Eshetie Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Ololade Grace Adewole; Sangeet Adhikari; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Bachelor Afolabi; Saira Afzal; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Zahra Babaei Aghdam; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Janardhana P. Aithala; Budi Aji; Meisam Akhlaghdoust; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Astawus Alemayehu; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Shujait Ali; Liaqat Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Louay Almidani; Sami Almustanyir; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Mehrdad Amir-Behghadami; Sohrab Amiri; Hoda Amiri; Tadele Fentabil Anagaw; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Davood Anvari; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Asrat Arja; Judie Arulappan; Ashokan Arumugam; Armin Aryannejad; Saeed Asgary; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Alok Atreya; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Samad Azari; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Asaminew Birhanu Balta; MacIej Banach; Palash Chandra Banik; Hansi Bansal; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco BaroneAdesi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Abebe Ayalew Bekel; Alehegn Bekele Bekele; Salaheddine Bendak; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Bagas Suryo Bintoro; Saeid Bitaraf; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Archith Boloor; Souad Bouaoud; Julie Brown; Katrin Burkart; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Luis Alberto CÃ¡mera; Julio Cesar Campuzano Rincon; Chao Cao; Andre F. Carvalho; MÃ¡rcia Carvalho; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Eeshwar K. Chandrasekar; Jung-Chen Chang; Periklis Charalampous; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bitew Mekonnen Chekole; Abdulaal Chitheer; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Hitesh Chopra; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; NatÃ¡lia Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Gary L. Darmstadt; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Saswati Das; Anna Dastiridou; Sisay Abebe Debela; Amin Dehghan; Getnet Makasha Demeke; Andreas K. Demetriades; Solomon Demissie; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Nancy Diao; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Paul Narh Doku; Deepa Dongarwar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Ahmed Elabbas Mustafa Elagali; Mostafa Ahmed Elbahnasawy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Abbas Farmany; Andre Faro; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Getahun Fetensa; Bikila Regassa Feyisa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Behzad Foroutan; Masoud Foroutan; Kayode Raphael Fowobaje; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A. Gadanya; Yaseen Galali; Nasrin Galehdar; Balasankar Ganesan; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Gebrehiwot Damtew Gebrehiwot; Yosef Haile Gebremariam; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Urge Gerema; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Reza Ghanbari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Ali Gholami; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Sherief Ghozy; Syed Amir Gilani; Tiffany K. Gill; Iago GinÃ©-VÃ¡zquez; Zeleke Abate Girma; James C. Glasbey; Franklin N. Glozah; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Michal Grivna; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Yuming Guo; Veer Bala Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Bhawna Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Lolemo Kelbiso Hanfore; Asif Hanif; Arief Hargono; Netanja I. Harlianto; Mehdi Harorani; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Amr Hassan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Yuta Hiraike; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Sedighe Hosseini Shabanan; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Amir Human Hoveidaei; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Salman Hussain; Amal Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Behzad Imani; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Mohammad Mainul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; J. Linda Merin; Haitham Jahrami; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Umesh Jayarajah; Sudha Jayaraman; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Bedru Jemal; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk JÃ¼risson; Ali Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Dler Hussein Kadir; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Rajesh Kamath; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Hassan Karami; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Samad Karkhah; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Joonas H. Kauppila; Gbenga A. Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Cumali Keskin; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Mohammad Khammarnia; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Yusra H. Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Abbas Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Habibolah Khazaie; Jagdish Khubchandani; Zemene Demelash Kifle; Jihee Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Cameron J. Kneib; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nithin Kumar; Naveen Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Lucie Laflamme; Judit LÃ¡m; IvÃ¡n Landires; Bagher Larijani; Savita Lasrado; Paolo Lauriola; Carlo La Vecchia; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Yo Han Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei Chen Lee; Samson Mideksa Legesse; Shanshan Li; Stephen S. Lim; LÃ¡szlÃ³ Lorenzovici; Amana Ogeto Luke; Farzan Madadizadeh; Áurea M. Madureira-Carvalho; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Soleiman Mahjoub; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Elezebeth Mathews; Sazan Qadir Maulud; Dennis Mazingi; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Ritesh G. Menezes; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Atte Meretoja; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira de Sá; Ted R. Miller; Seyed Peyman Mirghaderi; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Chaitanya Mittal; Madeline E. Moberg; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Soheil Mohammadi; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Mohammad Mohseni; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Sumaira Mubarik; Lorenzo Muccioli; Soumyadeep Mukherjee; Francesk Mulita; Ghulam Mustafa; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Hasan Nassereldine; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Nafise Noroozi; Virginia NuÃ±ez-Samudio; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Chimedsuren Ochir; Julius Nyerere Odhiambo; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T. Olagunju; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Nikita Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Kee Park; Sangram Kishor Patel; Aslam Ramjan Pathan; Siddhartha Pati; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Mario F.P. Peres; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Michael R. Phillips; Julian David Pillay; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Mohsen Poursadeqiyan; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Ibrahim Qattea; Amir Radfar; Ata Rafiee; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Fakher Rahim; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Firman Suryadi Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Sheetal Raj Moolambally; Sheena Ramazanu; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Saleem Muhammad Rana; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Mohammad Mahdi Rashidi; Prateek Rastogi; Azad Rasul; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Reza Rawassizadeh; Negar Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Aziz Rezapour; Abanoub Riad; Muhammad Riaz; Jennifer Rickard; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Bedanta Roy; S. Manjula; Aly M.A. Saad; Siamak Sabour; Leila Sabzmakan; Basema Saddik; Malihe Sadeghi; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Sher Zaman Safi; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Harihar Sahoo; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Morteza Saki; Payman Salamati; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Yaser Sarikhani; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; David C. Schwebel; Hamed Seddighi; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Hosein Shabaninejad; Melika Shafeghat; Pritik A. Shah; Saeed Shahabi; Ataollah Shahbandi; Fariba Shahraki-Sanavi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Mehran Shams-Beyranvand; Mohd Shanawaz; Mohammed Shannawaz; Mequannent Melaku Sharew Sharew; Neeraj Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Maryam Shayan; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jiabin Shen; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Jae Il Shin; Nebiyu Aniley Shitaye; K.M. Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Soraya Siabani; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Wudneh Simegn; Ehsan Sinaei; Paramdeep Singh; Robert Sinto; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; S.N. Chandan; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Yonatan Solomon; Yi Song; Raúl A.R.C. Sousa; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Mark A. Stokes; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Jing Sun; Rafael TabarÃ©s-Seisdedos; Seyyed Mohammad Tabatabaei; Mohammad Tabish; Ensiyeh Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Mircea Tampa; KerKan Tan; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Md Tariqujjaman; Nathan Y. Tat; Vivian Y. Tat; Arash Tavakoli; Belay Negash Tefera; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Rekha Thapar; Nikhil Kenny Thomas; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Marius Belmondo Tincho; Amir Tiyuri; Munkhsaikhan Togtmol; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Sana Ullah; Saif Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Srikanth Umakanthan; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Siavash Vaziri; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Linh Gia Vu; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Yuan-Pang Wang; Cong Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Abay Tadesse Woday; Ai-Min Wu; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yigit; Eshetu Yisihak; Naohiro Yonemoto; Yuyi You; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Hossein Yusefi; Mazyar Zahir; Sojib Bin Zaman; Iman Zare; Kourosh Zarea; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Arash Ziapour; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohammad Zoladl; George C. Patton; Rebecca Q. Ivers
Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Avina Vongpradith; Sarah Brooke Sirota; Amanda Novotney; Christopher E Troeger; Matthew C Doxey; Rose G Bender; Jorge R Ledesma; Molly H Biehl; Samuel B Albertson; Joseph Jon Frostad; Katrin Burkart; Fiona B Bennitt; Jeff T Zhao; William M Gardner; Hailey Hagins; Dana Bryazka; Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Michael Abdelmasseh; Amir Abdoli; Gholamreza Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Vida Abedi; Tadesse M Abegaz; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Yonas Derso Abtew; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Kidist Adamu; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A Adegboye; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Luciana Albano; Mamoon A Aldeyab; Bezatu Mengistie Alemu; Kefyalew Addis Alene; Abdelazeem M Algammal; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Musa Mohammed Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Adel Al-Jumaily; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Rami H Hani Al-Rifai; Saif Aldeen S AlRyalat; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Javad Javad Aminian Dehkordi; John H Amuasi; Dickson A Amugsi; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Demelash Areda; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Mulusew A Asemahagn; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Engi F Attia; Sameh Attia; Avinash Aujayeb; Tewachew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Samad Azari; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; MacIej Banach; Indrajit Banerjee; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Quique Bassat; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Abate Bekele Belachew; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Parth Bhatt; Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Soumitra S Bhuyan; Ali Bijani; Saeid Bitaraf; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Danilo Buonsenso; Muhammad Hammad Butt; Jiao Cai; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Muluken Genetu Chanie; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Patrick R Ching; Sungchul Choi; Yuen Yu Chong; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Devasahayam J Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Natalie L Cobb; Aaron J Cohen; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; An Thi Minh Dao; Sisay Abebe Debela; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Diriba Dereje; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Belay Desye; Sameer Dhingra; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Fariba Dorostkar; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Eleonora Dubljanin; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Hisham Atan Edinur; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Eman D El Desouky; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Ahmed Mahmoud Rabie Elkhapery; Amir Emami; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Farshid Etaee; Mohamad Ezati Asar; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Shahab Falahi; Aida Fallahzadeh; Anwar Faraj; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Ali Fatehizadeh; Pietro Ferrara; Allegra Allegra Ferrari; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Joanne Flavel; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Santosh Gaihre; Nasrin Galehdar; Alberto L Garcia-Basteiro; Tushar Garg; Mesfin Damtew Gebrehiwot; Mathewos Alemu Gebremichael; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Bradford D Gessner; Melaku Getachew; Asmare Getie; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Rakesh Ghosh; Sherief Ghozy; Pouya Goleij; Mohamad Golitaleb; Giuseppe Gorini; Alessandra C Goulart; Girma Garedew Goyomsa; Habtamu Alganeh Guadie; Zewdie Gudisa; Rashid Abdi Guled; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Md Abdul Hannan; Mehdi Harorani; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Abbas M Hassan; Shokoufeh Hassani; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Mohammad Heidari; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Sung Hwi Hong; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mustapha Immurana; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Masao Iwagami; Jalil Jaafari; Elham Jamshidi; Sung-In Jang; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Tahereh Javaheri; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Javad Javidnia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Jayarajah; Shubha Jayaram; Alelign Tasew Jema; Wonjeong Jeong; Jost B Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; V. K; Zubair Kabir; Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi; Vidya Kadashetti; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K Kanko; Ibraheem M Karaye; André Karch; Samad Karkhah; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Patrick D M C Katoto; Harkiran Kaur; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Yusra H Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Mina Khosravifar; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Niranjan Kissoon; Luke D Knibbs; Sonali Kochhar; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Judit Lám; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Miriam Levi; Sonia Lewycka; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; László Lorenzovici; Mojgan Lotfi; Joana A Loureiro; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Marzieh Mahmoudimanesh; Jamal Majidpoor; Alaa Makki; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Yosef Manla; Clara N Matei; Alexander G Mathioudakis; Richard James Maude; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Addisu Melese; Ziad A Memish; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Tuomo J Meretoja; Mehari Woldemariam Merid; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira De Sá; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Reza Mirfakhraie; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Agha Zeeshan Mirza; Moonis Mirza; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Abay Sisay Misganaw; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Arif Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Mohammad Mohseni; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Md Moniruzzaman; Fateme Montazeri; Catrin E Moore; Abdolvahab Moradi; Lidia Morawska; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Majid Motaghinejad; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Seyed Ali Mousavi-Aghdas; Sumaira Mubarik; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Sanjeev Nair; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Houshang Najafi; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Huy Van Nguyen Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira De Sá; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Eyal Oren; Erika Ota; Nikita Otstavnov; Abderrahim Oulhaj; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Reza Pakzad; Tamás Palicz; Anamika Pandey; Suman Pant; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Rajan Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Minjin Peng; Gavin Pereira; Simone Perna; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; David M Pigott; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Vivek Podder; Roman V Polibin; Maarten J Postma; Hamid Pourasghari; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Mirza Muhammad Fahd Qadir; Mathieu Raad; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Saber Raeghi; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Mehran Rahimi; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Azizur Rahman; Md Obaidur Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Juwel Rana; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Usha Rani; Sowmya J Rao; Sina Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Marissa B Reitsma; Andre M N Renzaho; Mohsen Rezaeian; Abanoub Riad; Reza Rikhtegar; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Emma L B Rogowski; Luca Ronfani; Kristina E Rudd; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Azam Safary; Sher Zaman Safi; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sateesh Sakhamuri; Sana Salehi; Muhammad Salman; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Bruno Piassi Sao Jose; Maryam Sarkhosh; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Amira A Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Hina Shamshad; Mequannent Melaku Sharew; Asaad Sharhani; Azam Sharifi; Purva Sharma; Ali Sheidaei; Suchitra M Shenoy; Jeevan K Shetty; Damtew Solomon Shiferaw; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; K.M. Shivakumar; Siddharudha Shivalli; Parnian Shobeiri; Wudneh Simegn; Colin R Simpson; Harpreet Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Yimeng Song; Prashant Sood; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Muhammad Suleman; Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh; Alireza Tahamtan; Majid Taheri; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Elahe Taki; Iman M Talaat; Mircea Tampa; Sarmila Tandukar; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Azene Tesfaye; Degefa Gomora Tesfaye; Belay Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Amir Tiyuri; Imad I Tleyjeh; Munkhsaikhan Togtmol; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Derara Girma Tufa; Irfan Ullah; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Rohollah Valizadeh; Constantine Vardavas; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Bay Vo; Linh Gia Vu; Birhanu Wagaye; Yasir Waheed; Yu Wang; Abdul Waris; T Eoin West; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Xiaoyue Xu; Sajad Yaghoubi; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Burhan Abdullah Zaman; Alireza Zandifar; Moein Zangiabadian; Heather J Zar; Iman Zare; Zahra Zareshahrabadi; Armin Zarrintan; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Wu Zeng; Mengxi Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zoladl; Alimuddin Zumla; Stephen S Lim; Theo Vos; Mohsen Naghavi; Michael Brauer; Simon I Hay; Christopher J L Murray
Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories. Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors. Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths. Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Annie Haakenstad; Jamal Akeem Yearwood; Nancy Fullman; Corinne Bintz; Kelly Bienhoff; Marcia R Weaver; Vishnu Nandakumar; Jonah N Joffe; Kate E LeGrand; Megan Knight; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Amir Abdoli; Roberto Ariel Abeldaño Zuñiga; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Victor Adekanmbi; Olatunji O Adetokunboh; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Budi Aji; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Khurshid Alam; Hanadi Al Hamad; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Hubert Amu; Dickson A Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Pedro Prata Andrade; Afifa Anjum; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Hany Ariffin; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Tahira Ashraf; Desta Debalkie Atnafu; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Leticia Avila-Burgos; Getinet Ayano; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Samad Azari; Ashish D Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Shankar M Bakkannavar; Shrikala Baliga; Palash Chandra Banik; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Sanjay Basu; Mohsen Bayati; Rebuma Belete; Arielle Wilder Bell; Devidas S Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Nikha Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Zulfiqar A Bhutta; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Antonio Biondi; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Reinhard Busse; Zahid A Butt; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Vera L A Carneiro; Ferrán Catalá-López; Joht Singh Chandan; Jaykaran Charan; Prachi P Chavan; Simiao Chen; Shu Chen; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Massimo Cirillo; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Saad M A Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; William James Dangel; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Kairat Davletov; Keshab Deuba; Meghnath Dhimal; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Leila Doshmangir; Bruce B Duncan; Andem Effiong; Elham Ehsani-Chimeh; Islam Y Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Iman El Sayed; Maha El Tantawi; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Santosh Gaihre; William M Gardner; Tushar Garg; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Salime Goharinezhad; Mahaveer Golechha; Jenny S Guadamuz; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I Hasaballah; Md Mehedi Hasan; M Tasdik Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Simon I Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Golnaz Heidari; Nathaniel J Henry; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sahadat Hossain; Sheikh Jamal Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Vivian Chia-Rong Hsieh; Guoqing Hu; Junjie Huang; M Mamun Huda; Susan C Ifeagwu; Kevin S Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Rakibul M Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Nader Jahanmehr; Rajesh Jain; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Leila R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Aruna M Kamath; Kaloyan Kamenov; Himal Kandel; Rami S Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Marina Karanikolos; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Taras Kavetskyy; Norito Kawakami; Gbenga A Kayode; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Mohammad Khammarnia; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A B Khan; Maseer Khan; Mehdi Khezeli; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Vitalii Klymchuk; Kamrun Nahar Koly; Oleksii Korzh; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Anders O Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Shanshan Li; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Adolfo Martinez-Valle; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Manu Raj Mathur; Richard James Maude; Pallab K Maulik; Martin McKee; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G Menezes; George A Mensah; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Babak Moazen; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ghobad Moradi; Rafael Silveira Moreira; Jonathan F Mosser; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Simin Mouodi; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Chie Nagata; Mohsen Naghavi; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Aparna Ichalangod Narayana; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Hasan Nassereldine; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Samata Nepal; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Josephine W Ngunjiri; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Bogdan Oancea; Onome Bright Oghenetega; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Adrian Otoiu; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Raffaele Palladino; Adrian Pana; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Deepak Kumar Pasupula; Praveen Kumar Pathak; George C Patton; Shrikant Pawar; Jeevan Pereira; Manju Pilania; Bakhtiar Piroozi; Vivek Podder; Khem Narayan Pokhrel; Maarten J Postma; Sergio I Prada; Zahiruddin Quazi Syed; Navid Rabiee; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Mahfuzar Rahman; Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Chythra R Rao; Sowmya J Rao; Davide Rasella; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Bhageerathy Reshmi; Serge Resnikoff; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Harihar Sahoo; Maitreyi Sahu; Joseph S Salama; Payman Salamati; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Maria Inês Schmidt; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Aziz Sheikh; Adithi Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Azad Shokri; Jasvinder A Singh; Dhirendra Narain Sinha; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Raúl A R C Sousa; Jacqueline H Stephens; Jing Sun; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Animut Tagele Tamiru; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Bach Xuan Tran; Niharika Tripathi; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Christopher E Troeger; Deinzel Robles Uezono; Saif Ullah; Anayat Ullah; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Milena Vasic; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S Violante; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Richard G Wamai; Yuan-Pang Wang; Yanzhong Wang; Paul Ward; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Sanni Yaya; Vahid Yazdi-Feyzabadi; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yiǧit; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Sojib Bin Zaman; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H Zuniga; Stephen S Lim; Christopher J L Murray; Rafael Lozano
Background: Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019. Methods: We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0–74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0–14 years), working (ages 15–64 years), and post-working (ages 65–74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development. Findings: Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9–21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9–24·7), working (17·2, 15·2–19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2–17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6–33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4–84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4–89·0), working (33·8–82·8), and post-working (30·4–79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries. Interpretation: Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(American Medical Association, 2022) Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Kelly Compton; Frances E. Dean; Weijia Fu; Brian L. Gaw; James D. Harvey; Hannah Jacqueline Henrikson; Dan Lu; Alyssa Pennini; Rixing Xu; Emad Ababneh; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Sherief M. Abd-Elsalam; Amir Abdoli; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Hassan Abolhassani; Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohammad Aghaali; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Saqib Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Nihad A. Almasri; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Sami Almustanyir; Nivaldo Alonso; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hubert Amu; Etsay Woldu Anbesu; Robert Ancuceanu; Fereshteh Ansari; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Maxwell Hubert Antwi; Davood Anvari; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Muhammad Aqeel; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Olatunde Aremu; Hany Ariffin; Timur Aripov; Muhammad Arshad; Al Artaman; Judie Arulappan; Zatollah Asemi; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Prince Atorkey; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Temesgen Ayenew; Mohammed A. Azab; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Ashish D. Badiye; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Maciej Banach; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Fabio Barra; Amadou Barrow; Masoud Behzadifar; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Catherine Bisignano; Tone Bjorge; Archie Bleyer; Oleg Blyuss; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Dejana Braithwaite; Amanpreet Brar; Hermann Brenner; Maria Teresa Bustamante-Teixeira; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Ferrán Catalá-López; Francieli Cembranel; Ester Cerin; Achille Cernigliaro; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Soosanna Kumary Chattu; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Michael T. Chung; Joao Conde; Sanda Cortés; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Amanda Ramos Cunha; Omid Dadras; Amare Belachew Dagnew; Saad M.A. Dahlawi; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; José das Neves; Fernando Pio De la Hoz; Asmamaw Bizuneh Demis; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Huyen Phuc Do; Saeid Doaei; Fariba Dorostkar; Francisco Winter dos Santos Figueiredo; Tim Robert Driscoll; Hedyeh Ebrahimi; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Maha El Tantawi; Hassan El-Abid; Iffat Elbarazi; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Arash Etemadi; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Jawad Fares; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Simone Ferrero; Lorenzo Ferro Desideri; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; James L. Fisher; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Muktar A. Gadanya; Silvano Gallus; Mariana Gaspar Fonseca; Abera Getachew Obsa; Mansour Ghafourifard; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Syed Amir Gilani; Themba G. Ginindza; Abraham Tamirat T. Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Ricardo Santiago Gomez; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Giuseppe Grosso; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Maximiliano Ribeiro Guerra; Avirup Guha; D. Sanjeeva Gunasekera; Bhawna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Reyna Alma Gutiérrez; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Randah R. Hamadeh; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Roderick J. Hay; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna; Claudiu Herteliu; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Mohamed Hsairi; Junjie Huang; Fernando N. Hugo; Rabia Hussain; Nawfal R. Hussein; Bing-Fang Hwang; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Fidelia Ida; Kevin S. Ikuta; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Mihajlo B. Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Shubha Jayaram; Seyed Behzad Jazayeri; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Danial Kahrizi; Leila R. Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Feroze Kaliyadan; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Nawzad Kameran Al-Salihi; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Taras Kavetskyy; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Rovshan Khalilov; Gulfaraz Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Young-Ho Khang; Amir M. Khater; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Gyu Ri Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Katarzyna Kissimova-Skarbek; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nuworza Kugbey; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; Tezer Kutluk; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Paolo Lauriola; Sang-Woong Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; James Leigh; Elvynna Leong; Jiarui Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Xuefeng Liu; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Shilpa Male; Ahmad Azam Malik; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Santi Martini; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Prashant Mathur; Martin McKee; Ravi Mehrotra; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Endalkachew Worku Mengesha; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Hamed Mirzaei; Hamid Reza Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Masoud Moghadaszadeh; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Yousef Mohammad; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Mohammad Amin Moosavi; Yousef Moradi; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Shane Douglas Morrison; Abbas Mosapour; Sumaira Mubarik; Lillian Mwanri; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Chie Nagata; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Rawlance Ndejjo; Sabina O. Nduaguba; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Nurulamin M. Noor; Virginia Nunez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Emad Omar; Ahmed Omar Bali; Abidemi E. Emmanuel Omonisi; Sokking Ong; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Hans Orru; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh P A; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Adrian Pana; Demosthenes Panagiotakos; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Cheol Park; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Harsh K. Patel; Jenil R. Patel; Siddhartha Pati; Sanjay M. Pattanshetty; Uttam Paudel; David M. Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Julian David Pillay; Saeed Pirouzpanah; Farhad Pishgar; Indrashis Podder; Maarten J. Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Akila Prashant; Liliana Preotescu; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Raghu Anekal Radhakrishnan; Venkatraman Radhakrishnan; Ata Rafiee; Fakher Rahim; Shadi Rahimzadeh; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Ivo Rakovac; Pradhum Ram; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Thomas J. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Peter Rohloff; Michele Romoli; Luca Ronfani; Gholamreza Roshandel; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; S. Manjula; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Yaeesh Sardiwalla; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Sekerija; Allen Seylani; Omid Shafaat; Zahra Shaghaghi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Erfan Shamsoddin; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajesh Sharma; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Adithi Shetty; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Reza Shirkoohi; K.M. Shivakumar; Velizar Shivarov; Soraya Siabani; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Yitagesu Sintayehu; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Matthew J. Soeberg; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Houman Sotoudeh; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Kurt Straif; Ranjeeta Subedi; Mu'awiyyah Babale Sufiyan; Iyad Sultan; Saima Sultana; Daniel Sur; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Takahiro Tabuchi; Hooman Tadbiri; Amir Taherkhani; Ken Takahashi; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Vivian Y. Tat; Bemnet Amare A. Tedla; Yonas Getaye Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Fisaha Haile Tesfay; Gizachew Assefa Tessema; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Viveksandeep Thoguluva Chandrasekar; Nihal Thomas; Hamid Reza Tohidinik; Mathilde Touvier; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Bach Xuan Tran; Khanh Bao Tran; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Era Upadhyay; Marco Vacante; Maryam Vaezi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Massimiliano Veroux; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Giang Thu Vu; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Paul Ward; Yi Feng Wen; Ronny Westerman; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Yigizie Yeshaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Zabihollah Yousefi; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Fariba Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Jianrong Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Linghui Zhou; Cong Zhu; Arash Ziapour; Ivan R. Zimmermann; Christina Fitzmaurice; Christopher J.L. Murray; Lisa M. Force
IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world. © 2022 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
Diabetes mortality and trends before 25 years of age: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Ewerton Cousin; Bruce B. Duncan; Caroline Stein; Kanyin Liane Ong; Theo Vos; Cristiana Abbafati; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Amir Abdoli; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abolhassani; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Gina Agarwal; Krishna K. Agrawaal; Marcela Agudelo-Botero; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Ziyad Al-Aly; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Ranjit Mohan Anjana; Adnan Ansar; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Benny Antony; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Damian Arizmendi; Benedetta Armocida; Anton A. Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Zahra Aryan; Samaneh Asgari; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout; Martin Amogre Ayanore; Ashish D. Badiye; Atif Amin Baig; Mohan Bairwa; Jennifer L. Baker; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Palash Chandra Banik; Anthony Barnett; Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Neeraj Bedi; Rebuma Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Arielle Wilder Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; David Beran; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Setognal Birara; Virginia Bodolica; Aime Bonny; Hermann Brenner; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Yin Cao; Chao Cao; Ester Cerin; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Joht Singh Chandan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Simiao Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Barbara Corso; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Jan-Walter De Neve; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Daniel Diaz; Sanam Ebtehaj; Hisham Atan Edinur; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Iman El Sayed; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Mohammed Faisaluddin; Umar Farooque; Xiaoqi Feng; Eduarda Fernandes; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Marisa Freitas; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Piyada Gaewkhiew; Lemma Getacher; Mansour Ghafourifard; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Ghozali Ghozali; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Ekaterina Vladimirovna Glushkova; Mahaveer Golechha; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Rafael Alves Guimarães; Rajat Das Gupta; Rajeev Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Syed Shahzad Hasan; Abdiwahab Hashi; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain; Sahadat Hossain; Mostafa Hosseini; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S. Ikuta; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Usman Iqbal; Md Shariful Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Gaetano Isola; Ramaiah Itumalla; Masao Iwagami; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Oommen John; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Gbenga A. Kayode; Sewnet Adem Kebede; Pedram Keshavarz; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Moien A. B. Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Amir M. Khater; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Vladimir Andreevich Korshunov; Oleksii Korzh; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; G. Anil Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Chiachi Bonnie Lee; Paul H. Lee; Shaun Wen Huey Lee; Ming-Chieh Li; Stephen S. Lim; Lee-Ling Lim; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Azeem Majeed; Ahmad Azam Malik; Borhan Mansouri; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Prashant Mathur; Colm McAlinden; Nafiul Mehedi; Teferi Mekonnen; Ritesh G. Menezes; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Agha Zeeshan Mirza; Prasanna Mithra; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Farhad Moradpour; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Christopher J. L. Murray; Ahmad Mustafa; Gabriele Nagel; Vinay Nangia; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Rawlance Ndejjo; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Christoph Nowak; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Temitope T. Ojo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Obinna E. Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Raffaele Palladino; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Tarang Parekh; Mojtaba Parvizi; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Manju Pilania; Vivek Podder; Roman V. Polibin; Maarten J. Postma; Akila Prashant; Navid Rabiee; Mohammad Rabiee; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Md. Mosfequr Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Nazanin Rajai; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Kamal Ranabhat; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Satish Rao; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Andre M. N. Renzaho; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Seyed Mohammad Riahi; Daniela Ribeiro; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Peter Rohloff; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Paul MacDaragh Ryan; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Brijesh Sathian; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Markus P. Schlaich; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Mario Šekerija; Nachimuthu Senthil Kumar; Allen Seylani; Masood Ali Shaikh; Hina Shamshad; Md Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Rahman Shiri; K.M. Shivakumar; Kerem Shuval; Jasvinder A. Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Ahmad Sofi-Mahmudi; Amin Soheili; Jing Sun; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Hooman Tadbiri; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Md. Tariqujjaman; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Rekha Thapar; Nihal Thomas; Binod Timalsina; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Riaz Uddin; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Madhur Verma; Victor E. Villalobos-Daniel; Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov; Bay Vo; Giang Thu Vu; Rade Vukovic; Yasir Waheed; Richard G. Wamai; Andrea Werdecker; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Befikadu Legesse Wubishet; Xiaoyue Xu; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Sanni Yaya; Taklo Simeneh Yazie Yazie; Siyan Yi; Naohiro Yonemoto; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Nelson Zamora; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zmaili; Alimuddin Zumla; Mohsen Naghavi; Maria Inês Schmidt
Background: Diabetes, particularly type 1 diabetes, at younger ages can be a largely preventable cause of death with the correct health care and services. We aimed to evaluate diabetes mortality and trends at ages younger than 25 years globally using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. Methods: We used estimates of GBD 2019 to calculate international diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years in 1990 and 2019. Data sources for causes of death were obtained from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and other surveillance systems for 1990–2019. We estimated death rates for each location using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed the association of age-standardised death rates per 100 000 population with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and a measure of universal health coverage (UHC) and described the variability within SDI quintiles. We present estimates with their 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, 16 300 (95% uncertainty interval 14 200 to 18 900) global deaths due to diabetes (type 1 and 2 combined) occurred in people younger than 25 years and 73·7% (68·3 to 77·4) were classified as due to type 1 diabetes. The age-standardised death rate was 0·50 (0·44 to 0·58) per 100 000 population, and 15 900 (97·5%) of these deaths occurred in low to high-middle SDI countries. The rate was 0·13 (0·12 to 0·14) per 100 000 population in the high SDI quintile, 0·60 (0·51 to 0·70) per 100 000 population in the low-middle SDI quintile, and 0·71 (0·60 to 0·86) per 100 000 population in the low SDI quintile. Within SDI quintiles, we observed large variability in rates across countries, in part explained by the extent of UHC (r2=0·62). From 1990 to 2019, age-standardised death rates decreased globally by 17·0% (−28·4 to −2·9) for all diabetes, and by 21·0% (–33·0 to −5·9) when considering only type 1 diabetes. However, the low SDI quintile had the lowest decline for both all diabetes (−13·6% [–28·4 to 3·4]) and for type 1 diabetes (−13·6% [–29·3 to 8·9]). Interpretation: Decreasing diabetes mortality at ages younger than 25 years remains an important challenge, especially in low and low-middle SDI countries. Inadequate diagnosis and treatment of diabetes is likely to be major contributor to these early deaths, highlighting the urgent need to provide better access to insulin and basic diabetes education and care. This mortality metric, derived from readily available and frequently updated GBD data, can help to monitor preventable diabetes-related deaths over time globally, aligned with the UN's Sustainable Development Targets, and serve as an indicator of the adequacy of basic diabetes care for type 1 and type 2 diabetes across nations. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Estimates, trends, and drivers of the global burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 air pollution, 1990–2019: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Katrin Burkart; Kate Causey; Aaron J Cohen; Sarah S Wozniak; Devashri Digvijay Salvi; Cristiana Abbafati; Victor Adekanmbi; Jose C Adsuar; Keivan Ahmadi; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Vahid Alipour; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Adeladza Kofi Amegah; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Fereshteh Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Olatunde Aremu; Timur Aripov; Ebrahim Babaee; MacIej Banach; Anthony Barnett; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Neeraj Bedi; Masoud Behzadifar; Yannick Béjot; Derrick A Bennett; Isabela M Bensenor; Robert S Bernstein; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Somayeh Bohlouli; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Zahid A Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Bal Govind Chauhan; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Ahmad Daryani; Kairat Davletov; Barbora De Courten; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Bruce B Duncan; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Mohammad Fareed; Farshad Farzadfar; Nazir Fattahi; Mehdi Fazlzadeh; Eduarda Fernandes; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Nataliya A Foigt; Marisa Freitas; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Paramjit Singh Gill; Ibrahim Abdelmageed Ginawi; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Tesfa Dejenie Habtewold; Randah R Hamadeh; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J Hankey; Edris Hasanpoor; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Simon I Hay; Behzad Heibati; Michael K Hole; Naznin Hossain; Mowafa Househ; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Jalil Jaafari; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B Jonas; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Amir Kasaeian; Neda Kaydi; Yousef Saleh Khader; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Khaled Khatab; Amir M Khater; Yun Jin Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Luke D Knibbs; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Barthelemy Kuate Defo; Nuworza Kugbey; Paolo Lauriola; Paul H Lee; Mostafa Leili; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Shai Linn; Yong Liu; Stefan Lorkowski; Phetole Walter Mahasha; Narayan B Mahotra; Azeem Majeed; Afshin Maleki; Reza Malekzadeh; Abdullah A Mamun; Navid Manafi; Santi Martini; Birhanu Geta Meharie; Ritesh G Menezes; Tomislav Mestrovic; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Ted R Miller; G.K. Mini; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Bahram Mohajer; Shafiu Mohammed; Viswanathan Mohan; Ali H Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Paula Moraga; Shane Douglas Morrison; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Satinath Mukhopadhyay; Ghulam Mustafa; Saravanan Muthupandian; Gurudatta Naik; Vinay Nangia; Duduzile Edith Ndwandwe; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T Olagunju; Obinna E Onwujekwe; Alberto Ortiz; Mayowa O Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Eun-Kee Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Meghdad Pirsaheb; Maarten J Postma; Hadi Pourjafar; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Rajesh Kumar Rai; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Samira Raoofi; Lal Rawal; Andre M N Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Daniela Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Ehsan Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Sundeep Santosh Salvi; Abdallah M Samy; Juan Sanabria; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Masood Ali Shaikh; Kiomars Sharafi; Aziz Sheikh; Mika Shigematsu; Rahman Shiri; Reza Shirkoohi; Kerem Shuval; Ireneous N Soyiri; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Yonatal Mesfin Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan; Roman Topor-Madry; Lorainne Tudor Car; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Pascual R Valdez; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Francesco S Violante; Yasir Waheed; Charles D A Wolfe; Tomohide Yamada; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Sojib Bin Zaman; Yunquan Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Stephen S Lim; Jeffrey D Stanaway; Michael Brauer
Background: Experimental and epidemiological studies indicate an association between exposure to particulate matter (PM) air pollution and increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In view of the high and increasing prevalence of diabetes, we aimed to quantify the burden of type 2 diabetes attributable to PM2·5 originating from ambient and household air pollution. Methods: We systematically compiled all relevant cohort and case-control studies assessing the effect of exposure to household and ambient fine particulate matter (PM2·5) air pollution on type 2 diabetes incidence and mortality. We derived an exposure–response curve from the extracted relative risk estimates using the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. The estimated curve was linked to ambient and household PM2·5 exposures from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, and estimates of the attributable burden (population attributable fractions and rates per 100 000 population of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years) for 204 countries from 1990 to 2019 were calculated. We also assessed the role of changes in exposure, population size, age, and type 2 diabetes incidence in the observed trend in PM2·5-attributable type 2 diabetes burden. All estimates are presented with 95% uncertainty intervals. Findings: In 2019, approximately a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes was attributable to PM2·5 exposure, with an estimated 3·78 (95% uncertainty interval 2·68–4·83) deaths per 100 000 population and 167 (117–223) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) per 100 000 population. Approximately 13·4% (9·49–17·5) of deaths and 13·6% (9·73–17·9) of DALYs due to type 2 diabetes were contributed by ambient PM2·5, and 6·50% (4·22–9·53) of deaths and 5·92% (3·81–8·64) of DALYs by household air pollution. High burdens, in terms of numbers as well as rates, were estimated in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and South America. Since 1990, the attributable burden has increased by 50%, driven largely by population growth and ageing. Globally, the impact of reductions in household air pollution was largely offset by increased ambient PM2·5. Interpretation: Air pollution is a major risk factor for diabetes. We estimated that about a fifth of the global burden of type 2 diabetes is attributable PM2·5 pollution. Air pollution mitigation therefore might have an essential role in reducing the global disease burden resulting from type 2 diabetes. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Estimation of the global prevalence of dementia in 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Emma Nichols; Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Stein Emil Vollset; Kai Fukutaki; Julian Chalek; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Tayyaba Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Vahid Alipour; Sami Almustanyir; Hubert Amu; Iman Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Getinet Ayano; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Atif Amin Baig; Anthony Barnett; Amadou Barrow; Bernhard T. Baune; Yannick Béjot; Woldesellassie M. Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Atanu Biswas; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Carol Brayne; Hermann Brenner; Katrin Burkart; Richard A. Burns; Luis Alberto Cámera; Chao Cao; Felix Carvalho; Luis F.S. Castro-De-Araujo; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Prachi P. Chavan; Nicolas Cherbuin; Dinh-Toi Chu; Vera Marisa Costa; Rosa A.S. Couto; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Vanessa De la Cruz-Góngora; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Diana Dias da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Abdel Douiri; David Edvardsson; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Saman Esmaeilnejad; Jawad Fares; Andre Faro; Umar Farooque; Valery L. Feigin; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Howard Fillit; Florian Fischer; Shilpa Gaidhane; Lucia Galluzzo; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Alessandro Gialluisi; Syed Amir Gilani; Ionela-Roxana Glavan; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Mohammad Rifat Haider; Brian J. Hall; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Shafiul Haque; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; M. Tasdik Hasan; Amr Hassan; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Roxana Jabbarinejad; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Rizwan Kalani; Amit Kandel; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Gizat M. Kassie; Pedram Keshavarz; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Tawfik Ahmed Muthafer Khoja; Jagdish Khubchandani; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Walter J. Koroshetz; Ai Koyanagi; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Yuewei Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Ahmad Azam Malik; João Massano; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Bahram Mohajer; Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim; Yousef Mohammad; Arif Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Stefania Mondello; Mohammad Ali Moni; Md Moniruzzaman; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Gabriele Nagel; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bogdan Oancea; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Maja Pasovic; Urvish K. Patel; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Carrie B. Peterson; Michael R. Phillips; Marina Pinheiro; Michael A. Piradov; Constance Dimity Pond; Michele H. Potashman; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Sergio I. Prada; Amir Radfar; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Mosiur Rahman; Pradhum Ram; Priyanga Ranasinghe; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Nima Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Stephen R. Robinson; Michele Romoli; Gholamreza Roshandel; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Monika Sawhney; Mete Saylan; Silvia Schiavolin; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Masood Ali Shaikh; K.S. Shaji; Mohammed Shannawaz; Jeevan K. Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Joao Pedro Silva; Renata Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amanda E. Smith; Sergey Soshnikov; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Dan J. Stein; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Bhaskar Thakur; Binod Timalsina; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Yuan-Pang Wang; Anders Wimo; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Lalit Yadav; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Lin Yang; Yuichiro Yano; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Siddhesh Zadey; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Christopher J.L. Murray; Theo Vos
Background: Given the projected trends in population ageing and population growth, the number of people with dementia is expected to increase. In addition, strong evidence has emerged supporting the importance of potentially modifiable risk factors for dementia. Characterising the distribution and magnitude of anticipated growth is crucial for public health planning and resource prioritisation. This study aimed to improve on previous forecasts of dementia prevalence by producing country-level estimates and incorporating information on selected risk factors. Methods: We forecasted the prevalence of dementia attributable to the three dementia risk factors included in the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 (high body-mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and smoking) from 2019 to 2050, using relative risks and forecasted risk factor prevalence to predict GBD risk-attributable prevalence in 2050 globally and by world region and country. Using linear regression models with education included as an additional predictor, we then forecasted the prevalence of dementia not attributable to GBD risks. To assess the relative contribution of future trends in GBD risk factors, education, population growth, and population ageing, we did a decomposition analysis. Findings: We estimated that the number of people with dementia would increase from 57·4 (95% uncertainty interval 50·4–65·1) million cases globally in 2019 to 152·8 (130·8–175·9) million cases in 2050. Despite large increases in the projected number of people living with dementia, age-standardised both-sex prevalence remained stable between 2019 and 2050 (global percentage change of 0·1% [–7·5 to 10·8]). We estimated that there were more women with dementia than men with dementia globally in 2019 (female-to-male ratio of 1·69 [1·64–1·73]), and we expect this pattern to continue to 2050 (female-to-male ratio of 1·67 [1·52–1·85]). There was geographical heterogeneity in the projected increases across countries and regions, with the smallest percentage changes in the number of projected dementia cases in high-income Asia Pacific (53% [41–67]) and western Europe (74% [58–90]), and the largest in north Africa and the Middle East (367% [329–403]) and eastern sub-Saharan Africa (357% [323–395]). Projected increases in cases could largely be attributed to population growth and population ageing, although their relative importance varied by world region, with population growth contributing most to the increases in sub-Saharan Africa and population ageing contributing most to the increases in east Asia. Interpretation: Growth in the number of individuals living with dementia underscores the need for public health planning efforts and policy to address the needs of this group. Country-level estimates can be used to inform national planning efforts and decisions. Multifaceted approaches, including scaling up interventions to address modifiable risk factors and investing in research on biological mechanisms, will be key in addressing the expected increases in the number of individuals affected by dementia. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Gates Ventures. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Mohsen Naghavi; Kanyin Liane Ong; Amirali Aali; Hazim S. Ababneh; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Cristiana Abbafati; Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh; Mohammadreza Abbasian; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Samar Abd ElHafeez; Michael Abdelmasseh; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Ahmed Abdelwahab; Mohammad Abdollahi; Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar; Meriem Abdoun; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Auwal Abdullahi; Mesfin Abebe; Samrawit Shawel Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Kedir Hussein Abegaz; E.S. Abhilash; Hassan Abidi; Olumide Abiodun; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Meysam Abolmaali; Mohamed Abouzid; Girma Beressa Aboye; Lucas Guimaraes Abreu; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Dariush Abtahi; Samir Abu Rumeileh; Hasan Abualruz; Bilyaminu Abubakar; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh; Salahdein Aburuz; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Manfred Mario Kokou Accrombessi; Tadele Girum Adal; Abdu A. Adamu; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Giovanni Addolorato; Akindele Olupelumi Adebiyi; Victor Adekanmbi; Abiola Victor Adepoju; Charles Oluwaseun Adetunji; Juliana Bunmi Adetunji; Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye; Biruk Adie Admass; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Suneth Buddhika Agampodi; Pradyumna Agasthi; Manik Aggarwal; Shahin Aghamiri; Feleke Doyore Agide; Antonella Agodi; Anurag Agrawal; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Danish Ahmad; Firdos Ahmad; Muayyad M Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Shahzaib Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Keivan Ahmadi; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed; Meqdad Saleh Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Syed Anees Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Essona Matatom Akara; Hossein Akbarialiabad; Karolina Akinosoglou; Tomi Akinyemiju; Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif; Samuel Akyirem; Hanadi Al Hamad; Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan; Fares Alahdab; Samer O. Alalalmeh; Tariq A. Alalwan; Ziyad Al-Aly; Khurshid Alam; Manjurul Alam; Noore Alam; Rasmieh Mustafa Al-Amer; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Sayer Al-Azzam; Almaza Albakri; Mohammed Albashtawy; Mohammad T. AlBataineh; Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde-Rabanal; Khalifah A. Aldawsari; Wafa A. Aldhaleei; Robert W. Aldridge; Haileselasie Berhane Alema; Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu; Sharifullah Alemi; Yihun Mulugeta Alemu; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Khalid F. Alhabib; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Mohammed Khaled Al-Hanawi; Abid Ali; Amjad Ali; Liaqat Ali; Mohammed Usman Ali; Rafat Ali; Shahid Ali; Syed Shujait Shujait Ali; Gianfranco Alicandro; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Reyhaneh Alikhani; Yousef Alimohamadi; Ahmednur Adem Aliyi; Mohammad A. M. Aljasir; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Francois Alla; Peter Allebeck; Sabah Al-Marwani; Sadeq Ali Ali Al-Maweri; Joseph Uy Almazan; Hesham M. Al-Mekhlafi; Louay Almidani; Omar Almidani; Mahmoud A. Alomari; Basem Al-Omari; Jordi Alonso; Jaber S. Alqahtani; Shehabaldin Alqalyoobi; Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Zaid Altaany; Awais Altaf; Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Deborah Oyine Aluh; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hassan Alwafi; Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi; Hany Aly; Safwat Aly; Karem H. Alzoubi; Reza Amani; Azmeraw T. Amare; Prince M. Amegbor; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Alireza Amindarolzarbi; Sohrab Amiri; Mohammad Hosein Amirzade-Iranaq; Hubert Amu; Dickson A. Amugsi; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; David B. Anderson; Pedro Prata Andrade; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Colin Angus; Abhishek Anil; Sneha Anil; Amir Anoushiravani; Hossein Ansari; Ansariadi Ansariadi; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Catherine M. Antony; Ernoiz Antriyandarti; Davood Anvari; Saeid Anvari; Saleha Anwar; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Razique Anwer; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Muhammad Aqeel; Juan Pablo Arab; Jalal Arabloo; Mosab Arafat; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Demelash Areda; Abdulfatai Aremu; Olatunde Aremu; Hany Ariffin; Mesay Arkew; Benedetta Armocida; Michael Benjamin Arndt; Johan Arnlov; Mahwish Arooj; Anton A. Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Ashokan Arumugam; Malke Asaad; Mohsen Asadi-Lari; Akeza Awealom Asgedom; Mona Asghariahmadabad; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Muhammad Ashraf; Armin Aslani; Thomas Astell-Burt; Mohammad Athar; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Bantalem Tilaye Tilaye Atinafu; Habtamu Wondmagegn Atlaw; Prince Atorkey; Maha Moh'D Wahbi Atout; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Marcel Ausloos; Abolfazl Avan; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Amlaku Mulat Aweke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Haleh Ayatollahi; Jose L. Ayuso-Mateos; Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh; Sina Azadnajafabad; Rui M. S. Azevedo; Ahmed Y. Azzam; B.B. Darshan; Abraham Samuel Babu; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Soroush Baghdadi; Nasser Bagheri; Sara Bagherieh; Sulaiman Bah; Saeed Bahadorikhalili; Najmeh Bahmanziari; Ruhai Bai; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Abdulaziz T. Bako; Ravleen Kaur Bakshi; Senthilkumar Balakrishnan; Madhan Balasubramanian; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; Kiran Bam; MacIej Banach; Soham Bandyopadhyay; Palash Chandra Banik; Hansi Bansal; Kannu Bansal; Franca Barbic; Martina Barchitta; Mainak Bardhan; Erfan Bardideh; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Barnighausen; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Lope H. Barrero; Amadou Barrow; Sandra Barteit; Lingkan Barua; Zarrin Basharat; Azadeh Bashiri; Afisu Basiru; Pritish Baskaran; Buddha Basnyat; Quique Bassat; João Diogo Basso; Ann V. L. Basting; Sanjay Basu; Kavita Batra; Bernhard T. Baune; Mohsen Bayati; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Thomas Beaney; Neeraj Bedi; Massimiliano Beghi; Emad Behboudi; Priyamadhaba Behera; Amir Hossein Behnoush; Masoud Behzadifar; Maryam Beiranvand; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Yannick Béjot; Sefealem Assefa Belay; Chalie Mulu Belete; Michelle L. Bell; Muhammad Bashir Bello; Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello; Luis Belo; Apostolos Beloukas; Rose Grace Bender; Isabela M. Bensenor; Azizullah Beran; Zombor Berezvai; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Betyna N. Berice; Robert S. Bernstein; Gregory J. Bertolacci; Paulo J. G. Bettencourt; Kebede A. Beyene; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Ashish Bhalla; Dinesh Bhandari; Kayleigh Bhangdia; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Prarthna V. Bhardwaj; Ashish Bhargava; Sonu Bhaskar; Vivek Bhat; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Jasvinder Singh Bhatti; Manpreet S. Bhatti; Rajbir Bhatti; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Boris Bikbov; Jessica Devin Bishai; Catherine Bisignano; Francesca Bisulli; Atanu Biswas; Bijit Biswas; Saeid Bitaraf; Bikes Destaw Bitew; Veera R. Bitra; Tone Bjørge; Micheal Kofi Boachie; Mary Sefa Boampong; Anca Vasilica Bobirca; Virginia Bodolica; Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin; Eyob Ketema Bogale; Kassawmar Angaw Bogale; Somayeh Bohlouli; Obasanjo Afolabi Bolarinwa; Archith Boloor; Milad Bonakdar Hashemi; Aime Bonny; Kaustubh Bora; Berrak Bora Basara; Hamed Borhany; Arturo Borzutzky; Souad Bouaoud; Antoine Boustany; Christopher Boxe; Edward J. Boyko; Oliver J. Brady; Dejana Braithwaite; Luisa C. Brant; Michael Brauer; Alexandra Brazinova; Javier Brazo-Sayavera; Nicholas J. K. Breitborde; Susanne Breitner; Hermann Brenner; Andrey Nikolaevich Briko; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Gabrielle Britton; Julie Brown; Traolach Brugha; Norma B. Bulamu; Lemma N. Bulto; Danilo Buonsenso; Richard A. Burns; Reinhard Busse; Yasser Bustanji; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Daniela Calina; Luis Alberto Camera; Luciana Aparecida Campos; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Angelo Capodici; Rosario Cárdenas; Sinclair Carr; Giulia Carreras; Juan J. Carrero; Andrea Carugno; Cristina G. Carvalheiro; Felix Carvalho; Márcia Carvalho; Joao Mauricio Castaldelli-Maia; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Giulio Castelpietra; Ferrán Catalá-López; Alberico L. Catapano; Maria Sofia Cattaruzza; Christopher R. Cederroth; Luca Cegolon; Francieli Cembranel; Muthia Cenderadewi; Kelly M. Cercy; Ester Cerin; Muge Cevik; Joshua Chadwick; Yaacoub Chahine; Chiranjib Chakraborty; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Raymond N. C. Chan; Rama Mohan Chandika; Eeshwar K. Chandrasekar; Chin-Kuo Chang; Jung-Chen Chang; Gashaw Sisay Chanie; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Pankaj Chaturvedi; Victoria Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Angela W. Chen; An-Tian Chen; Catherine S. Chen; Haowei Chen; Meng Xuan Chen; Simiao Chen; Ching-Yu Cheng; Esther T. W. Cheng; Nicolas Cherbuin; Wondimye Ashenafi Cheru; Ju-Huei Chien; Odgerel Chimed-Ochir; Ritesh Chimoriya; Patrick R. Ching; Jesus Lorenzo Chirinos-Caceres; Abdulaal Chitheer; William C. S. Cho; Bryan Chong; Hitesh Chopra; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Rajiv Chowdhury; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Eric Chung; Erin Chung; Eunice Chung; Sheng-Chia Chung; Muhammad Chutiyami; Zinhle Cindi; Iolanda Cioffi; Mareli M. Claassens; Rafael M. Claro; Kaleb Coberly; Rebecca M. Cogen; Alyssa Columbus; Haley Comfort; Joao Conde; Samuele Cortese; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Vera Marisa Costa; Simona Costanzo; Ewerton Cousin; Rosa A. S. Couto; Richard G. Cowden; Kenneth Michael Cramer; Michael H. Criqui; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernandez; Garland T. Culbreth; Patricia Cullen; Matthew Cunningham; Maria Paula Curado; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Siyu Dai; Xiaochen Dai; Zhaoli Dai; Lachlan L. Dalli; Giovanni Damiani; Jiregna Darega Gela; Jai K. Das; Saswati Das; Subasish Das; Ana Maria Dascalu; Nihar Ranjan Dash; Mohsen Dashti; Anna Dastiridou; Gail Davey; Claudio Alberto Davila-Cervantes; Nicole Davis Weaver; Kairat Davletov; Diego De Leo; Katie De Luca; Aklilu Tamire Debele; Shayom Debopadhaya; Louisa Degenhardt; Azizallah Dehghan; Lee Deitesfeld; Cristian Del Bo; Ivan Delgado-Enciso; Berecha Hundessa Demessa; Andreas K. Demetriades; Ke Deng; Xinlei Deng; Edgar Denova-Gutierrez; Niloofar Deravi; Nebiyu Dereje; Nikolaos Dervenis; Emina Dervišević; Don C. Des Jarlais; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Rupak Desai; Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Arkadeep Dhali; Kuldeep Dhama; Meghnath Dhimal; Sameer Dhingra; Vishal R. Dhulipala; Diana Dias Da Silva; Daniel Diaz; Michael J. Diaz; Adriana Dima; Delaney D. Ding; Huanghe Ding; Ricardo Jorge Dinis-Oliveira; M. Ashworth Dirac; Shirin Djalalinia; Thao Huynh Phuong Do; Camila Bruneli Do Prado; Saeid Doaei; Masoud Dodangeh; Milad Dodangeh; Sushil Dohare; Klara Georgieva Dokova; Christiane Dolecek; Regina-Mae Villanueva Dominguez; Wanyue Dong; Deepa Dongarwar; Mario D'Oria; Fariba Dorostkar; E. Ray Dorsey; Wendel Mombaque Dos Santos; Rajkumar Doshi; Leila Doshmangir; Robert Kokou Dowou; Tim Robert Driscoll; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Viola Dsouza; Mi Du; John Dube; Bruce B. Duncan; Andre Rodrigues Duraes; Senbagam Duraisamy; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Laura Dwyer-Lindgren; Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic; Abdel Rahman E'Mar; Ejemai Eboreime; Alireza Ebrahimi; Chidiebere Peter Echieh; Hisham Atan Edinur; David Edvardsson; Kristina Edvardsson; Defi Efendi; Ferry Efendi; Diyan Ermawan Effendi; Terje Andreas Eikemo; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Iffat Elbarazi; Teshome Bekele Elema; Noha Mousaad Elemam; Frank J. Elgar; Islam Y. Elgendy; Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Legesse Tesfaye Elilo; Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Mohammed Elshaer; Ibrahim Elsohaby; Theophilus I. Emeto; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Christopher Imokhuede Esezobor; Babak Eshrati; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Juan Espinosa-Montero; Habtamu Esubalew; Farshid Etaee; Natalia Fabin; Adewale Oluwaseun Fadaka; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ayesha Fahim; Saman Fahimi; Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh; Luca Falzone; Mohammad Fareed; Carla Sofia E Sa Farinha; Moezalislam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris; Pawan Sirwan Faris; Andre Faro; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Hamed Fattahi; Nelsensius Klau Fauk; Pooria Fazeli; Valery L. Feigin; Alireza Feizkhah; Ginenus Fekadu; Xiaoru Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Daniela Ferrante; Alize J. Ferrari; Nuno Ferreira; Getahun Fetensa; Bikila Regassa Feyisa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Joanne Flavel; David Flood; Bobirca Teodor Florin; Nataliya A. Foigt; Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan; Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov; Behzad Foroutan; Masoud Foroutan; Ingeborg Forthun; Daniela Fortuna; Matteo Foschi; Kayode Raphael Fowobaje; Kate Louise Francis; Richard Charles Franklin; Alberto Freitas; Joseph Friedman; Sara D. Friedman; Takeshi Fukumoto; John E. Fuller; Blima Fux; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A. Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Santosh Gaihre; Emmanuela Gakidou; Yaseen Galali; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Mandukhai Ganbat; Aravind P. Gandhi; Balasankar Ganesan; Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani; Ma Garcia-Gordillo; William M. Gardner; Jalaj Garg; Naval Garg; Rupesh K. Gautam; Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi; Tilaye Gebru Gebi; Miglas W. Gebregergis; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Simona Roxana Georgescu; Tamirat Getachew; Peter W. Gething; Molla Getie; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Sulmaz Ghahramani; Khalid Yaser Ghailan; Mohammad-Reza Ghasemi; Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi; Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Fariba Ghassemi; Ramy Mohamed Ghazy; Ajnish Ghimire; Sama Ghoba; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Asadollah Gholamian; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Nasim Gholizadeh; Mahsa Ghorbani; Pooyan Ghorbani Vajargah; Aloke Gopal Ghoshal; Paramjit Singh Gill; Tiffany K. Gill; Richard F. Gillum; Themba G. Ginindza; Alem Girmay; James C. Glasbey; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Laszlo Gobolos; Myron Anthony Godinho; Amit Goel; Ali Golchin; Mohamad Goldust; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Nelson G. M. Gomes; Philimon N. Gona; Sameer Vali Gopalani; Giuseppe Gorini; Houman Goudarzi; Alessandra C. 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Hussein; Foziya Mohammed Hussien; Hong-Han Huynh; Bing-Fang Hwang; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Khalid S. Ibrahim; Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar; Desta Ijo; Adalia I. Ikiroma; Kevin S. Ikuta; Paul Chukwudi Ikwegbue; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Mohammad Tarique Imam; Mustapha Immurana; Sumant Inamdar; Endang Indriasih; Muhammad Iqhrammullah; Arnaud Iradukunda; Kenneth Chukwuemeka Iregbu; Md Rabiul Islam; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Farhad Islami; Faisal Ismail; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Ihoghosa Osamuyi Iyamu; Mahalaxmi Iyer; J. Linda Merin; Jalil Jaafari; Louis Jacob; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Morteza Jafarinia; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Khushleen Jaggi; Kasra Jahankhani; Nader Jahanmehr; Haitham Jahrami; Nityanand Jain; Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun; Abhishek Jaiswal; Elham Jamshidi; Mark M. Janko; Abubakar Ibrahim Jatau; Sabzali Javadov; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Rime Jebai; Sun Ha Jee; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Anil K. Jha; Ravi Prakash Jha; Heng Jiang; Yingzhao Jin; Olatunji Johnson; Mohammad Jokar; Jost B. Jonas; Tamas Joo; Abel Joseph; Nitin Joseph; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua; Grace Joshy; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jurisson; K. Vaishali; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Dler Hussein Kadir; Rizwan Kalani; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Leila R. Kalankesh; Feroze Kaliyadan; Sanjay Kalra; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Sivesh Kathir Kamarajah; Rajesh Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Naser Kamyari; Thanigaivelan Kanagasabai; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Arun R. Kanmanthareddy; Edmund Wedam Kanmiki; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi; S. Suthanthira Kannan; Sushil Kumar Kansal; Rami S. Kantar; Neeti Kapoor; Mehrdad Karajizadeh; Shama D. Karanth; Reema A. Karasneh; Ibraheem M. 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Background: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study
(Elsevier Inc., 2020) Gregory A. Roth; George A. Mensah; Catherine O. Johnson; Giovanni Addolorato; Enrico Ammirati; Larry M. Baddour; Noel C. Barengo; Andrea Beaton; Emelia J. Benjamin; Catherine P. Benziger; Aime Bonny; Michael Brauer; Marianne Brodmann; Thomas J. Cahill; Jonathan R. Carapetis; Alberico L. Catapano; Sumeet Chugh; Leslie T. Cooper; Josef Coresh; Michael H. Criqui; Nicole K. DeCleene; Kim A. Eagle; Sophia Emmons-Bell; Valery L. Feigin; Joaquim Fernández-Sola; F. Gerry R. Fowkes; Emmanuela Gakidou; Scott M. Grundy; Feng J. He; George Howard; Frank Hu; Lesley Inker; Ganesan Karthikeyan; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Walter J. Koroshetz; Carl Lavie; Donald Lloyd-Jones; Hong S. Lu; Antonio Mirijello; Awoke T. Misganaw; Ali H. Mokdad; Andrew E. Moran; Paul Muntner; Jagat Narula; Bruce Neal; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Gláucia M.M. Oliveira; Catherine M. Otto; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Michael Pratt; Sanjay Rajagopalan; Marissa B. Reitsma; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Nancy A. Rigotti; Anthony Rodgers; Craig A. Sable; Saate S. Shakil; Karen Sliwa; Benjamin A. Stark; Johan Sundström; Patrick Timpel; Imad I. Tleyjeh; Marco Valgimigli; Theo Vos; Paul K. Whelton; Magdi Yacoub; Liesl J. Zuhlke; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Alireza Abdi; Aidin Abedi; Victor Aboyans; Woldu A. Abrha; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Dilaram Acharya; Tim Adair; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Zanfina Ademi; Shailesh M. Advani; Khashayar Afshari; Ashkan Afshin; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Muktar B. Ahmed; Budi Aji; Yonas Akalu; Wuraola Akande-Sholabi; Addis Aklilu; Chisom J. Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Ayman Al-Eyadhy; Khalid F. Alhabib; Sheikh M. Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed M. Aljunid; François Alla; Amir Almasi-Hashiani; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Adeladza K. Amegah; Saeed Amini; Arya Aminorroaya; Hubert Amu; Dickson A. Amugsi; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Zelalem A. 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Yilgwan; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Hasan Yusefzadeh; Geevar Zachariah; Sojib Bin Zaman; Muhammed S. Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Ramin Zand; Alireza Zandifar; Afshin Zarghi; Mikhail S. Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Yunquan Zhang; Wangjian Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Zhiyong Zou; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Christopher J.L. Murray; Valentin Fuster
Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases. © 2020 The Authors
Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022
(Elsevier Inc., 2023) George A. Mensah; Valentin Fuster; Christopher J.L. Murray; Gregory A. Roth; George A. Mensah; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Mohammadreza Abbasian; Foad Abd-Allah; Ashkan Abdollahi; Mohammad Abdollahi; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Auwal Abdullahi; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Armita Abedi; Olugbenga Olusola Abiodun; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Salahdein Aburuz; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Ahmed Abu-Zaid; Tigist Demssew Adane; Nicola J. Adderley; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Bashir Aden; Temitayo Esther Adeyeoluwa; Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Fatemeh Afrashteh; Shadi Afyouni; Saira Afzal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Antonella Agodi; Constanza Elizabeth Aguilera Arriagada; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Danish Ahmad; Firdos Ahmad; Muayyad M. 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Linda Merin; Jalil Jaafari; Louis Jacob; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Khushleen Jaggi; Haitham Jahrami; Akhil Jain; Nityanand Jain; Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Roland Dominic G. Jamora; Nilofer Javadi; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Rime Jebai; Rebuma Sorsa Jeben; Sun Ha Jee; Anil K. Jha; Ravi Prakash Jha; Vivekanand Jha; Heng Jiang; Yinzi Jin; Yash B. Jobanputra; Catherine Owens Johnson; Mohammad Jokar; Tamas Joo; Abel Joseph; Nitin Joseph; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Farima Kahe; Rizwan Kalani; Laleh R. Kalankesh; Farnaz Kalantar; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Sanjay Kalra; Ashwin Kamath; Sagarika Kamath; Arun Kamireddy; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Arun R. Kanmanthareddy; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi; Sushil Kumar Kansal; Daniel John Kapner; Sitanshu Sekhar Kar; Paschalis Karakasis; Prabin Karki; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo; Hengameh Kasraei; Eskeziaw Abebe Kassahun; Nicholas J. Kassebaum; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Neda Kaydi; Foad Kazemi; Sina Kazemian; Sara Kazeminia; Jessica A. Kerr; Emmanuelle Kesse-Guyot; Mohammad Keykhaei; Mohamad Mehdi Khadembashiri; Mohammad Amin Khadembashiri; Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie; Himanshu Khajuria; Amirmohammad Khalaji; Nauman Khalid; Alireza Khalilian; Rovshan Khalilov; Asaduzzaman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Junaid Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Maseer Khan; Mohammad Jobair Khan; Muhammad Shahzeb Khan; Yusra H. Khan; Mahammed Ziauddin Khan Suheb; Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi; Khaled Khatab; Sorour Khateri; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Khalid A. Kheirallah; Feriha Fatima Khidri; Saeid Kian; Zemene Demelash Kifle; Ruth W. Kimokoti; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Farzad Kompani; Gerbrand Koren; Ashwin Laxmikant Kotnis; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Hare Krishna; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; Md Abdul Kuddus; Mohammed Kuddus; Mukhtar Kulimbet; Vishnutheertha Kulkarni; Akshay Kumar; Ashish Kumar; Naveen Kumar; Nithin Kumar; Rahul Kumar; Netsanet Bogale Kumsa; Kunle Rotimi Kunle; Dian Kusuma; Ilias Kyriopoulos; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Muhammad Awwal Ladan; Lucie Laflamme; Chandrakant Lahariya; Arista Lahiri; Daphne Teck Ching Lai; Tea Lallukka; Qing Lan; Iván Landires; Francesco Lanfranchi; Bagher Larijani; Anders O. Larsson; Savita Lasrado; Kamaluddin Latief; Kaveh Latifinaibin; Jerrald Lau; Paolo Lauriola; Khuong Le; Long Khanh Dao Le; Nhi Huu Hanh Le; Thao Thi Thu Le; Trang Diep Thanh Le; Trang Thi Bich Le; Caterina Ledda; Munjae Lee; Paul H. Lee; Seung Won Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Kate E. LeGrand; Mall Leinsalu; Matilde Leonardi; Temesgen L. Lerango; An Li; Ming-Chieh Li; Wei Li; Xiaopan Li; Yichong Li; Lee-Ling Lim; Stephen S. 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Matei; Yasith Mathangasinghe; Elezebeth Mathews; Manu Raj Mathur; Jishanth Mattumpuram; Richard James Maude; Andrea Maugeri; Mahsa Mayeli; Mohsen Mazidi; John J. McGrath; Steven M. McPhail; Enkeleint A. Mechili; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad; Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Belayneh Mengist; Sultan Ayoub Meo; Haftu Asmerom Meresa; Atte Meretoja; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Tomislav Mestrovic; Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda; Sachith Mettananda; Laurette Mhlanga; Tianyue Mi; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ted R. Miller; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Neema W. Minja; Pouya Mir Mohammad Sadeghi; Niloofar Mirdamadi; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Prasanna Mithra; Zahra Moghimi; Jama Mohamed; Mouhand F.H. Mohamed; Nouh Saad Mohamed; Soheil Mohammadi; Hussen Mohammed; Mustapha Mohammed; Salahuddin Mohammed; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Hossein Molavi Vardanjani; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Fateme Montazeri; AmirAli Moodi Ghalibaf; Yousef Moradi; Paula Moraga; Lidia Morawska; Negar Morovatdar; Shane Douglas Morrison; Jakub Morze; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Amirmahdi Mostofinejad; Vincent Mougin; Parsa Mousavi; Seyed Ehsan Mousavi; Dariush Mozaffarian; Ahmed Msherghi; Lorenzo Muccioli; Ulrich Otto Mueller; Sumoni Mukherjee; Kavita Munjal; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Sathish Muthu; Julius C. Mwita; Woojae Myung; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Shankar Prasad Nagaraju; Ganesh R. Naik; Gurudatta Naik; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Mohammad Sadeq Najafi; Noureddin Nakhostin Ansari; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Shumaila Nargus; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Gustavo G. Nascimento; Hadis Nasoori; Zuhair S. Natto; Javaid Nauman; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Vinod C. Nayak; Hadush Negash; Ionut Negoi; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Reza Nejad Shahrokh Abadi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Chakib Nejjari; Mohammad Hadi Nematollahi; Samata Nepal; Nawi Ng; Dang H. Nguyen; Phat Tuan Nguyen; Van Thanh Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Shawn S. Nijjar; Muhammad A. Nizam; Efaq Ali Noman; Shuhei Nomura; Mamoona Noreen; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi; Mpiko Ntsekhe; Dieta Nurrika; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Martin James O'Donnell; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; James Odhiambo Oguta; Sylvester Reuben Okeke; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Lawrence Okidi; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Patrick Godwin Okwute; Andrew T. Olagunju; Muideen Tunbosun Olaiya; Matifan Dereje Olana; Matthew Idowu Olatubi; Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira; Abdulhakeem Abayomi Olorukooba; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Yinka Doris Oluwafemi; Gideon Olamilekan Oluwatunase; Goran Latif Omer; Mohammad Mehdi Ommati; Kanyin Liane Ong; Sokking Ong; Kenneth Ikenna Onyedibe; Michal Ordak; Doris V. Ortega-Altamirano; Alberto Ortiz; Esteban Ortiz-Prado; Wael M.S. Osman; Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu; Adrian Otoiu; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; P.A. Mahesh Padukudru; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Mahsa Pahlavikhah Varnosfaderani; Tamás Palicz; Raffaele Palladino; Feng Pan; Hai-Feng Pan; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Paraskevi Papadopoulou; Seoyeon Park; Roberto Passera; Jay Patel; Shankargouda Patil; Dimitrios Patoulias; Venkata Suresh Patthipati; Shrikant Pawar; Amy E. Peden; Paolo Pedersini; Minjin Peng; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Emmanuel K. Peprah; Marcos Pereira; Maria Odete Pereira; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Norberto Perico; Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha; Hoang Tran Pham; Anil K. Philip; David M. Pigott; Thomas Pilgrim; Michael A. Piradov; Evgenii Plotnikov; Dimitri Poddighe; Roman V. Polibin; Ramesh Poluru; Ghazaleh Pourali; Akram Pourshams; Pranil Man Singh Pradhan; Manya Prasad; Elton Junio Sady Prates; Bharathi M. Purohit; Jagadeesh Puvvula; Ibrahim Qattea; Gangzhen Qian; Maryam Faiz Qureshi; Mehrdad Rabiee Rad; Amir Radfar; Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Alavi; Ibrar Rafique; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Md Jillur Rahim; Mehran Rahimi; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Bita Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pramila Rai; Sathish Rajaa; Ali Rajabpour-Sanati; Prashant Rajput; Pradhum Ram; Prasanna Ram; Sudha Ramalingam; Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy; Sheena Ramazanu; Pushkal Sinduvadi Ramesh; Juwel Rana; Kritika Rana; Chhabi Lal Ranabhat; Nemanja Rancic; Amey Rane; Shubham Ranjan; Annemarei Ranta; Indu Ramachandra Rao; Mithun Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Sina Rashedi; Vahid Rashedi; Ahmed Mustafa Rashid; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu; Nakul Ravikumar; Salman Rawaf; Iman Razeghian-Jahromi; Christian Razo; Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Luis Felipe Reyes; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Antonio Luiz P. Ribeiro; Daniela Ribeiro; Reza Rikhtegar; Leonardo Roever; Debby Syahru Romadlon; Luca Ronfani; Himanshu Sehar Sekhar Rout; Nitai Roy; Priyanka Roy; Andrzej Rynkiewicz; Aly M.A. Saad; Zahra Saadatian; Siamak Sabour; Simona Sacco; Rajesh Sachdeva; Basema Saddik; Erfan Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Fahimeh Safaeinejad; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari; Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Soumya Swaroop Sahoo; Seyed Aidin Sajedi; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Joseph W. Sakshaug; Nasir Salam; Afeez Abolarinwa Salami; Mohamed A. Saleh; Sana Salehi; Marwa Rashad Salem; Mohammed Z.Y. Salem; Sara Samadzadeh; Saad Samargandy; Vijaya Paul Samuel; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Rama Krishna Sanjeev; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Made Ary Sarasmita; Aswini Saravanan; Yaser Sarikhani; Tanmay Sarkar; Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez; Gargi Sachin Sarode; Sachin C. Sarode; Thirunavukkarasu Sathish; Anudeep Sathyanarayan; Monika Sawhney; Mehdi Sayyah; Benedikt Michael Schaarschmidt
[No abstract available]
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2022) Kevin S Ikuta; Lucien R Swetschinski; Gisela Robles Aguilar; Fablina Sharara; Tomislav Mestrovic; Authia P Gray; Nicole Davis Weaver; Eve E Wool; Chieh Han; Anna Gershberg Hayoon; Amirali Aali; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Sherief Abd-Elsalam; Getachew Abebe; Aidin Abedi; Amir Parsa Abhari; Hassan Abidi; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Abdorrahim Absalan; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Juan Manuel Acuna; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oyelola A Adegboye; Mohammad Adnan; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Zahra Babaei Aghdam; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Aqeel Ahmad; Araz Ramazan Ahmad; Rizwan Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Haroon Ahmed; Jivan Qasim Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Marjan Ajami; Budi Aji; Mostafa Akbarzadeh-Khiavi; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Ziyad Al-Aly; Mamoon A Aldeyab; Alicia V Aleman; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali; Liaqat Ali; Syed Shujait Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Atiyeh Alizadeh; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Kasim Allel; Sami Almustanyir; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Arianna Maever L Amit; Nivedita Anandavelane; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Dewi Anggraini; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Aleksandr Y Aravkin; Demelash Areda; Timur Aripov; Anton A Artamonov; Judie Arulappan; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Muhammad Asaduzzaman; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Sameh Attia; Marcel Ausloos; Tewachew Awoke; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; B. Darshan; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D Badiye; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Atif Amin Baig; Indrajit Banerjee; Aleksandra Barac; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Neeraj Bedi; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Rose G Bender; Bharti Bhandari; Dinesh Bhandari; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Sonu Bhaskar; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Suraj Bhattarai; Saeid Bitaraf; Danilo Buonsenso; Zahid A Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Jiao Cai; Daniela Calina; Paulo Camargos; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Muge Cevik; Joshua Chadwick; Jaykaran Charan; Akhilanand Chaurasia; Patrick R Ching; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Omid Dadras; Fentaw Teshome Dagnaw; Xiaochen Dai; Saswati Das; Anna Dastiridou; Sisay Abebe Debela; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Diriba Dereje; Msganaw Derese; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Fikadu Nugusu Dessalegn; Samuel Abebe A Dessalegni; Belay Desye; Kartik Dhaduk; Meghnath Dhimal; Sameer Dhingra; Nancy Diao; Daniel Diaz; Shirin Djalalinia; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Bezabih Terefe Dora; Fariba Dorostkar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; Eleonora Dubljanin; Susanna J Dunachie; Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye; Hisham Atan Edinur; Habtamu Bekele Ejigu; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Hassan El-Abid; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A Elmonem; Amir Emami; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Babak Eshrati; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Shahab Falahi; Aida Fallahzadeh; Emerito Jose A Faraon; Ali Fatehizadeh; Ginenus Fekadu; João C Fernandes; Allegra Ferrari; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Muktar A Gadanya; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Balasankar Ganesan; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Reza Ghanbari; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Amador Goodridge; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Yuming Guo; Rajat Das Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Alemu Guta; Parham Habibzadeh; Atlas Haddadi Avval; Rabih Halwani; Asif Hanif; Md Abdul Hannan; Harapan Harapan; Shoaib Hassan; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Behzad Heibati; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Praveen Hoogar; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Mahbub Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Soodabeh Hoveidamanesh; Junjie Huang; Salman Hussain; Nawfal R Hussein; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Mohammad Tarique Imam; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Arnaud Iradukunda; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Chidozie C D Iwu; Chinwe Juliana Iwu; Merin J. Linda; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Tahereh Javaheri; Fatemeh Javanmardi; Javad Javidnia; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Umesh Jayarajah; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Salah Eddine Oussama Kacimi; Vidya Kadashetti; Laleh R Kalankesh; Rohollah Kalhor; Vineet Kumar Kamal; Himal Kandel; Neeti Kapoor; Samad Karkhah; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Nicholas J Kassebaum; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Mohammad Keykhaei; Himanshu Khajuria; Abbas Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Md Nuruzzaman Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Mona M Khater; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Jagdish Khubchandani; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Ruth W Kimokoti; Niranjan Kissoon; Sonali Kochhar; Farzad Kompani; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Fiorella Krapp Lopez; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Vishnutheertha Kulkarni; Naveen Kumar; Om P Kurmi; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Judit Lám; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Sang-Woong Lee; Jacopo Lenzi; Sonia Lewycka; Shanshan Li; Stephen S Lim; Wei Liu; Rakesh Lodha; Michael J Loftus; Ayush Lohiya; Lászl Lorenzovici; Mojgan Lotfi; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Mansour Adam Mahmoud; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jamal Majidpoor; Alaa Makki; Galana Ayana Mamo; Yosef Manla; Miquel Martorell; Clara N Matei; Barney Mcmanigal; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ravi Mehrotra; Addisu Melese; Oliver Mendoza-Cano; Ritesh G Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Georgia Micha; Irmina Maria Michalek; Ana Carolina Micheletti Gomide Nogueira Des; Neda Milevska Kostova; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Mojgan Mirghafourvand; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M Mirrakhimov; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-attari; Abay Sisay Misganaw; Awoke Misganaw; Sanjeev Misra; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Syam Mohan; Mohammad Mohseni; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E Moore; Maryam Moradi; Mostafa Moradi Sarabi; Shane Douglas Morrison; Majid Motaghinejad; Haleh Mousavi Isfahani; Amin Mousavi Khaneghah; Seyed Ali Mousavi-Aghdas; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Getaneh Baye B Mulu; Sandra B Munro; Saravanan Muthupandian; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Atta Abbas Naqvi; Himanshi Narang; Zuhair S Natto; Muhammad Naveed; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Shumaila Naz; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Che Henry Ngwa; Robina Khan Niazi; Antonio Tolentino Nogueira Des; Nafise Noroozi; Hasti Nouraei; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Jerry John Nutor; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Rahman Md Obaidur; Vivek Anand Ojha; Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Andrew T Olagunju; Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Nikita Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Keyvan Pakshir; Tamás Palicz; Adrian Pana; Shahina Pardhan; Jose L Paredes; Utsav Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Seoyeon Park; Ashish Pathak; Rajan Paudel; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Minjin Peng; Umberto Pensato; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Marcos Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Norberto Perico; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Indrashis Podder; Nayanum Pokhrel; Ramesh Poluru; Maarten J Postma; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Ibrahim Qattea; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Saber Raeghi; Sima Rafiei; Pankaja Raghav Raghav; Leila Rahbarnia; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Pradhum Ram; Muhammad Modassar Ali Nawaz Ranjha; Sowmya J Rao; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Misganu Teshoma Regasa; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Melese Abate Reta; Nazila Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Abanoub Riad; Rezaul Karim Ripon; Kristina E Rudd; Basema Saddik; Saeid Sadeghian; Umar Saeed; Mohsen Safaei; Azam Safary; Sher Zaman Safi; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Saina Salahi; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hedayat Salari; Sana Salehi; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Abdallah M Samy; Nima Sanadgol; Senthilkumar Sankararaman; Francesco Sanmarchi; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Allen Seylani; Pritik A Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mequannent Melaku Sharew; Athena Sharifi-Razavi; Purva Sharma; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Ali Sheikhy; Pavanchand H Shetty; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; K.M. Shivakumar; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Sunil Shrestha; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Negussie Boti Sidemo; Mustafa Kamal Sikder; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Jasvinder A Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Samarjeet Singh Siwal; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Damtew Damtew Solomon; Yimeng Song; Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy; Muhammad Suleman; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Saima Sultana; Miklós Szócska; Seyed-Amir Tabatabaeizadeh; Mohammad Tabish; Majid Taheri; Elahe Taki; Ker-Kan Tan; Sarmila Tandukar; Nathan Y Tat; Vivian Y Tat; Belay Negash Tefera; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Gebremaryam Temesgen; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Samar Tharwat; Arulmani Thiyagarajan; Imad I Tleyjeh; Christopher E Troeger; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R Valdez; Jef Van Den Eynde; H Rogier Van Doorn; Siavash Vaziri; Georgios-Ioannis Verras; Harimadhav Viswanathan; Bay Vo; Abdul Waris; Gizachew Tadesse Wassie; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Sajad Yaghoubi; Gahin Abdulraheem Tayib Yahya Yahya; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Arzu Yigit; Vahit Yigit; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mazyar Zahir; Burhan Abdullah Zaman; Sojib Bin Zaman; Moein Zangiabadian; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Peng Zheng; Chenwen Zhong; Mohammad Zoladl; Alimuddin Zumla; Simon I Hay; Christiane Dolecek; Benn Sartorius; Christopher J L Murray; Mohsen Naghavi
Background: Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods: We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings: From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation: The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global mortality from dementia: Application of a newmethod and results from the global burden of disease study 2019
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2021) Emma Nichols; Foad Abd-Allah; Amir Abdoli; Akine Eshete Abosetugn; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Ahmed Abualhasan; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Vahid Alipour; Iman Ansari; Jalal Arabloo; Amir Ashraf-Ganjouei; Abolfazl Avan; Getinet Ayano; Zaheer-Ud-Din Babar; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Bernhard T. Baune; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Tsegaye Adane Birhan; Atanu Biswas; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Archith Boloor; Carol Brayne; Hermann Brenner; Katrin Burkart; Richard A. Burns; Sharath Burugina Nagaraja; Felix Carvalho; Luis F. S. Castro-De-araujo; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Achille Cernigliaro; Nicolas Cherbuin; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Dinh-Toi Chu; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Daniel Diaz; Zahra Sadat Dibaji Forooshani; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B. Duncan; David Edvardsson; Shaimaa I. El-Jaafary; Khalil Eskandari; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Valery L. Feigin; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Eduarda Fernandes; Pietro Ferrara; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Shilpa Gaidhane; Kidane Zereabruk Gebregzabiher; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Asadollah Gholamian; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Rajeev Gupta; Vladimir Hachinski; Samer Hamidi; Graeme J. Hankey; Josep Maria Haro; Amr Hassan; Simon I. Hay; Golnaz Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Mowafa Househ; Rabia Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Hiroyasu Iso; Masao Iwagami; Ravi Prakash Jha; Rizwan Kalani; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Ayele Semachew Kasa; Andre Pascal Kengne; Young-Eun Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Sezer Kisa; Adnan Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Hamidreza Komaki; Aikoyanagi; Walter A. Kukull; G. Anil Kumar; Manasi Kumar; Iván Landires; Matilde Leonardi; Stephen S. Lim; Xuefeng Liu; Giancarlo Logroscino; Alan D. Lopez; Stefan Lorkowski; Clement T. Loy; Hawraz Ibrahim M. Amin; Navid Manafi; Narayana Manjunatha; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Alexander Merkin; Workua Mekonnen Metekiya; Awoke Temesgen Misganaw; Bahram Mohajer; Norlinah Mohamed Ibrahim; Yousef Mohammad; Archisman Mohapatra; Farnam Mohebi; Ali H. Mokdad; Stefania Mondello; Tilahun Belete Mossie; Anwar Mulugeta; Gabriele Nagel; Muhammad Naveed; Vinod C. Nayak; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Son Hoang Nguyen; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Felix Akpojene Ogbo; Andrew T. Olagunju; Hans Orru; Sergej M. Ostojic; Samuel M. Ostroff; Nikita Otstavnov; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mona Pathak; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Carrie B. Peterson; Hai Quang Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Michael A. Piradov; Faheem Hyder Pottoo; Sergio I. Prada; Dimas Ria Angga Pribadi; Amir Radfar; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Pradhum Ram; Juwel Rana; Vahid Rashedi; Salman Rawaf; David Laith Rawaf; Nickolas Reinig; Nima Rezaei; Stephen R Robinson; Michele Romoli; Perminder S. Sachdev; Ramesh Sahathevan; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Davide Sattin; Mete Saylan; Mehdi Sayyah; Silvia Schiavolin; Maria Inês Schmidt; Izza Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mika Shigematsu; Jae Il Shin; Rahman Shiri; Tariq Jamal Siddiqi; João Pedro Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Amin Soheili; Emma Elizabeth Spurlock; Cassandra E. I. Szoeke; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Biruk Wogayehu Taddele; Bhaskar Thakur; Akhil Soman Thekke Purakkal; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Ravensara S. Travillian; Manjari Tripathi; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Muhammad Shariq Usman; Marco Vacante; Diana Zuleika Velazquez; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Simone Vidale; Vasily Vlassov; Yuan-Pang Wang; Jingkai Wei; Jordan Weiss; Abrha Hailay Weldemariam; Anders Wimo; Chenkai Wu; Ali Yadollahpour; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Yordanos Gizachew Yeshitila; Naohiro Yonemoto; Siddhesh Zadey; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Christopher J. L. Murray; Theo Vos
Introduction: Dementia is currently one of the leading causes of mortality globally, and mortality due to dementia will likely increase in the future along with corresponding increases in population growth and population aging. However, large inconsistencies in coding practices in vital registration systems over time and between countries complicate the estimation of global dementia mortality. Methods: We meta-analyzed the excess risk of death in those with dementia and multiplied these estimates by the proportion of dementia deaths occurring in those with severe, end-stage disease to calculate the total number of deaths that could be attributed to dementia. Results: We estimated that there were 1.62 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.41-4.21) deaths globally due to dementia in 2019. More dementia deaths occurred in women (1.06 million [0.27-2.71]) than men (0.56 million [0.14-1.51]), largely but not entirely due to the higher life expectancy in women (age-standardized female-tomale ratio 1.19 [1.10-1.26]). Due to population aging, there was a large increase in allage mortality rates from dementia between 1990 and 2019 (100.1% [89.1-117.5]). In 2019, deaths due to dementia ranked seventh globally in all ages and fourth among individuals 70 and older compared to deaths from other diseases estimated in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Discussion: Mortality due to dementia represents a substantial global burden, and is expected to continue to grow into the future as an older, aging population expands globally. © 2021 The Authors.
Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2024) Jorge R. Ledesma; Jianing Ma; Meixin Zhang; Ann V. L. Basting; Huong Thi Chu; Avina Vongpradith; Amanda Novotney; Kate E. LeGrand; Yvonne Yiru Xu; Xiaochen Dai; Sneha Ingle Nicholson; Lauryn K. Stafford; Austin Carter; Jennifer M. Ross; Hedayat Abbastabar; Meriem Abdoun; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Woldu Aberhe Abrha; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Salahdein Aburuz; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Abiola Victor Adepoju; Kishor Adhikari; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Saryia Adra; Abel Afework; Shahin Aghamiri; Williams Agyemang-Duah; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Danish Ahmad; Sajjad Ahmad; Amir Mahmoud Ahmadzade; Haroon Ahmed; Mohammed Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Karolina Akinosoglou; Tareq Mohammed Ali Al-Ahdal; Nazmul Alam; Mohammed Albashtawy; Mohammad T. AlBataineh; Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi; Abid Ali; Endale Alemayehu Ali; Liaqat Ali; Zahid Ali; Syed Shujait Shujait Ali; Kasim Allel; Awais Altaf; Jaffar A. Al-Tawfiq; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Nelson J. Alvis-Zakzuk; Reza Amani; Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa; Jimoh Amzat; Jason R. Andrews; Abhishek Anil; Razique Anwer; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Damelash Areda; Anton A. Artamonov; Raphael Taiwo Aruleba; Mulusew A. Asemahagn; Sachin R. Atre; Avinash Aujayeb; Davood Azadi; Sina Azadnajafabad; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Muhammad Badar; Ashish D. Badiye; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadorikhalili; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Biswajit Banik; Mainak Bardhan; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Zarrin Basharat; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Maryam Beiranvand; Melaku Ashagrie Belete; Makda Abate Belew; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Apostolos Beloukas; Paulo J. G. Bettencourt; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Ashish Bhargava; Vivek Bhat; Jasvinder Singh Bhatti; Gurjit Kaur Bhatti; Boris Bikbov; Veera R. Bitra; Vesna Bjegovic-Mikanovic; Danilo Buonsenso; Katrin Burkart; Yasser Bustanji; Zahid A. Butt; Paulo Camargos; Yu Cao; Sinclair Carr; Felix Carvalho; Luca Cegolon; Muthia Cenderadewi; Muge Cevik; Yaacoub Chahine; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Patrick R. Ching; Hitesh Chopra; Eunice Chung; Mareli M. Claassens; Kaleb Coberly; Natália Cruz-Martins; Bashir Dabo; Sriharsha Dadana; Omid Dadras; Isaac Darban; Jiregna Darega Gela; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Mahmood Dashti; Berecha Hundessa Demessa; Biniyam Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Awoke Masrie Asrat Derese; Kebede Deribe; Hardik Dineshbhai Desai; Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu; Arkadeep Dhali; Kuldeep Dhama; Sameer Dhingra; Thao Huynh Phuong Do; Deepa Dongarwar; Haneil Larson Dsouza; John Dube; Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic; Abdelaziz Ed-Dra; Ferry Efendi; Diyan Ermawan Effendi; Aziz Eftekharimehrabad; Nopryan Ekadinata; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Muhammed Elhadi; Legesse Tesfaye Elilo; Theophilus I. Emeto; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ayesha Fahim; Alireza Feizkhah; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Aravind P. Gandhi; Rupesh K. Gautam; Miglas W. Gebregergis; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan; Kazem Ghaffari; Fariba Ghassemi; Ramy Mohamed Ghazy; Amador Goodridge; Anmol Goyal; Shi-Yang Guan; Mesay Dechasa Gudeta; Rashid Abdi Guled; Novianti Br Gultom; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Hailey Hagins; Semira Goitom Hailu; Wase Benti Hailu; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Harapan Harapan; Rumina Syeda Hasan; Shoaib Hassan; Johannes Haubold; Kamal Hezam; Sung Hwi Hong; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Belal Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Sorin Hostiuc; Hong-Han Huynh; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Kevin S. Ikuta; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Md Rabiul Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Faisal Ismail; Abdollah Jafarzadeh; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Mahsa Jalili; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Nabi Jomehzadeh; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Charity Ehimwenma Joshua; Zubair Kabir; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Arman Karimi Behnagh; Gebrehiwot G. Kassa; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Navjot Kaur; Himanshu Khajuria; Faham Khamesipour; Yusra H. Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Mahammed Ziauddin Khan Suheb; Khaled Khatab; Fatemeh Khatami; Min Seo Kim; Soewarta Kosen; Parvaiz A. Koul; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Kewal Krishan; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Md Abdul Kuddus; Mukhtar Kulimbet; Nithin Kumar; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Kamaluddin Latief; Trang Diep Thanh Le; Thao Thi Thu Le; Caterina Ledda; Munjae Lee; Seung Won Lee; Temesgen L. Lerango; Stephen S. Lim; Chaojie Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Platon D. Lopukhov; Hong Luo; Hengliang Lv; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Amir Ali Mahboobipour; Azeem Majeed; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Kashish Malhotra; Muhammad Sajeel Ahmed Malik; Lesibana Anthony Malinga; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Aseer Manilal; Bernardo Alfonso Martinez-Guerra; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Roy Rillera Marzo; Hossein Masoumi-Asl; Vasundhara Mathur; Richard James Maude; Ravi Mehrotra; Ziad A. Memish; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Muayad Aghali Merza; Tomislav Mestrovic; Laurette Mhlanga; Sanjeev Misra; Arup Kumar Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Hussen Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Lorenzo Monasta; Catrin E. Moore; Parsa Mousavi; Francesk Mulita; Fungai Musaigwa; Raman Muthusamy; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Pirouz Naghavi; Ganesh R. Naik; Gurudatta Naik; Sanjeev Nair; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Hadush Negash; Dang H. Nguyen; Van Thanh Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi; Efaq Ali Noman; Shuhei Nomura; Bogdan Oancea; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Ismail A. Odetokun; Daniel Bogale Odo Odo; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; In-Hwan Oh; Chukwuma O. Okereke; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Eyal Oren; Edgar Ortiz-Brizuela; Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu; Amel Ouyahia; P.A. Mahesh Padukudru; Pragyan Paramita Parija; Romil R. Parikh; Seoyeon Park; Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi; Shankargouda Patil; Shrikant Pawar; Minjin Peng; Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito; Prince Peprah; João Perdigão; Norberto Perico; Hoang Tran Pham; Maarten J. Postma; Attur Ravindra Attur Prabhu; Manya Prasad; Akila Prashant; Elton Junio Sady Prates; Fakher Rahim; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Masoud Rahmati; Sathish Rajaa; Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy; Indu Ramachandra Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Deepthi Rapaka; Ahmed Mustafa Rashid; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Nakul Ravikumar; Salman Rawaf; Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Giuseppe Remuzzi; Luis Felipe Reyes; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Omid Rezahosseini; Mónica Rodrigues; Priyanka Roy; Guilherme de Andrade Ruela; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Sher Zaman Safi; Narjes Saheb Sharif-Askari; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Soumya Swaroop Sahoo; Nasir Salam; Afeez Abolarinwa Salami; Samreen Saleem; Mohamed A. Saleh; Hossein Samadi Kafil; Sara Samadzadeh; Yoseph Leonardo Samodra; Rama Krishna Sanjeev; Aswini Saravanan; Susan M. Sawyer; Siddharthan Selvaraj; Sabyasachi Senapati; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Pritik A. Shah; Samiah Shahid; Masood Ali Shaikh; Sunder Sham; Mohammad Ali Shamshirgaran; Mohd Shanawaz; Medha Sharath; Samendra P. Sherchan; Ranjitha S. Shetty; Hesamaddin Shirzad-Aski; Aminu Shittu; Emmanuel Edwar Siddig; João Pedro Silva; Surjit Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Harpreet Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Siswanto Siswanto; Ranjan Solanki; Yonatan Solomon; Joan B. Soriano; Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy; Vijay Kumar Srivastava; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Chandan Kumar Swain; Takahiro Tabuchi; Mircea Tampa; Jacques J. L. Lukenze Tamuzi; Nathan Y. Tat; Razieh Tavakoli Oliaee; Gebrehiwot Teklay; Edosa Geta Tesfaye; Belay Tessema; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Rekha Thapar; Chern Choong Chern Thum; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Imad M. Tleyjeh; Ruoyan Tobe-Gai; Temesgen Mohammed Toma; Khai Hoan Tram; Aniefiok John Udoakang; Tungki Pratama Umar; Chukwuma David Umeokonkwo; Seyed Mohammad Vahabi; Asokan Govindaraj Vaithinathan; Job F. M. van Boven; Shoban Babu Varthya; Ziyue Wang; Muktar S. A. Warsame; Ronny Westerman; Tewodros Eshete Wonde; Sajad Yaghoubi; Siyan Yi; Vahit Yigit; Dong Keon Yon; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Fathiah Zakham; Moein Zangiabadian; Francis Zeukeng; Haijun Zhang; Yang Zhao; Peng Zheng; Magdalena Zielinska; Joshua A. Salomon; Robert C. Reiner; Mohsen Naghavi; Theo Vos; Simon I. Hay; Christopher J. L. Murray; Hmwe Hmwe Kyu
Background: Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data. Findings: We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5–14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15–49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50–69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5–14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15–49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50–69 years, and a 3·29% (–5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (–713 to 2180) fewer deaths. Interpretation: Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of allergic disorders and their risk factors in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(John Wiley and Sons Inc, 2023) Youn Ho Shin; Jimin Hwang; Rosie Kwon; Seung Won Lee; Min Seo Kim; Jae Il Shin; Dong Keon Yon; Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Michael Abdelmasseh; Deldar Morad Abdulah; Richard Gyan Aboagye; Hassan Abolhassani; Elissa M. Abrams; Yonas Derso Abtew; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Denberu Eshetie Adane Adane; Tigist Demssew Adane; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Rishan Adha; Amin Adibi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Anurag Agrawal; Sohail Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Ali Ahmed; Ayman Ahmed; Sayer Al-Azzam; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Zaid Altaany; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Hany Aly; Adnan Ansar; Judie Arulappan; Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Daniel Atlaw; Avinash Aujayeb; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mahsa Babaei; Hassan Babamohamadi; Alaa Badawi; Nayereh Baghcheghi; Sara Bagherieh; Khuloud Bajbouj; Maciej Banach; Mainak Bardhan; Francesco Barone-Adesi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Nebiyou Simegnew Bayileyegn; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Kebede A. Beyene; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Ajay Nagesh Bhat; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Andras Bikov; Jiao Cai; Paulo Camargos; Josip Car; Sinclair Carr; Andrea Carugno; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan; Periklis Charalampous; Mohammadreza Chashmyazdan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Mohiuddin Ahsanul Kabir Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Barbara Corso; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Dessalegn Demeke; Biniyam Demisse; Daniel Diaz; Mengistie Diress; Deepa Dongarwar; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Muhammed Elhadi; Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy; Habtamu Esubalew; Farshid Etaee; Azin Etemadimanesh; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Ali Fatehizadeh; Syeda Anum Fatima Fatima; Xiaoqi Feng; Mohammad Fereidouni; Nuno Ferreira; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Takeshi Fukumoto; Abduzhappar Gaipov; Yibeltal Yismaw Gela; Abera Getachew Obsa; Fataneh Ghadirian; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Sherief Ghozy; Richard F. Gillum; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; Admasu Belay AB Gizaw; Mohamad Goldust; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Sapna Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Md Abdul Hannan; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Abdiwahab Hashi; Mohammed Bheser Hassen; Behzad Heibati; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan; Ramesh Holla; Nobuyuki Horita; Md Shakhaoat Hossain; Salman Hussain; Bing-Fang Hwang; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Rana Irilouzadian; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Zhanat Bakhitovna I. Z. B. Ispayeva; Chidozie C. D. Iwu; Linda Merin J; Maziar Jajarmi; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Shubha Jayaram; Rime Jebai; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Billingsley Kaambwa; Zubair Kabir; Feroze Kaliyadan; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Hanie Karimi; Harkiran Kaur; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Moien A. B. Khan; Saval Khanal; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Biruk Getahun Kibret; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Pavel Kolkhir; Farzad Kompani; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Oleksii Korzh; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Claudia E. Kuehni; G. Anil Kumar; Om P. Kurmi; L. V. Simhachalam Kutikuppala; Ambily Kuttikkattu; Judit Lám; Bagher Larijani; Kamaluddin Latief; Paolo Lauriola; Thao Thi Thu Le; Yo Han Lee; Jacopo Lenzi; Ming-Chieh Li; Shanshan Li; Virendra S. Ligade; Stephen S. Lim; Gang Liu; Wei Liu; Xuefeng Liu; Chun-Han Lo; Graciliana Lopes; Soundarya Mahalingam; Sandeep B. Maharaj; Mansour Adam Mahmoud; Azeem Majeed; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Tauqeer Hussain Mallhi; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Abdullah A. Mamun; Seyedeh Zahra Masoumi; Andrea Maugeri; John Robert Carabeo Medina; Ritesh G. Menezes; George A. Mensah; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tomislav Mestrovic; Irmina Maria Michalek; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Manish Mishra; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Md Moniruzzaman; Temesgen Mulugeta; Daniel Munblit; Efrén Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Vinay Nangia; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Hasan Nassereldine; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Tze Pin Ng; Dang H. Nguyen; Van Thanh Nguyen; Robina Khan Niazi; Hasti Nouraei; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Rahman Md Obaidur; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Patrick Godwin Okwute; Andrew T. Olagunju; Isaac Iyinoluwa Olufadewa; Hans Orru; P.A. Mahesh; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Anamika Pandey; Shahina Pardhan; Eun-Kee Park; Jay Patel; Shankargouda Patil; Venkata Suresh Patthipati; Uttam Paudel; Marcos Pereira; Renato B. Pereira; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Indrashis Podder; Vivek Podder; Arash Pour Mohammad; Ibrahim Qattea; Navid Rabiee; Mehran Rahimi; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Shayan Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Prashant Rajput; Pradhum Ram; Premkumar Ramasubramani; Indu Ramachandra Rao; Ahmed Mustafa Rashid; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Nakul Ravikumar; Salman Rawaf; Lal Rawal; Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan; Aavishkar Raj Regmi; Nazila Rezaei; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Esperanza Romero-Rodríguez; Luca Ronfani; Aly M. A. Saad; Basema Saddik; Umar Saeed; Dominic Sagoe; Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Harihar Sahoo; Mirza Rizwan Sajid; Joseph W. Sakshaug; Saina Salahi; Sana Salehi; Abdallah M. Samy; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Made Ary Sarasmita; Maryam Sarkhosh; Ganesh Kumar Saya; Subramanian Senthilkumaran; Humaira Shah; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Aziz Sheikh; Shashank Shekhar; Mika Shigematsu; Parnian Shobeiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Colin R. Simpson; Jasvinder A. Singh; Paramdeep Singh; Surjit Singh; Virendra Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Yonatan Solomon; Suhang Song; Sergey Soshnikov; Ireneous N. Soyiri; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mindy D. Szeto; Iman M. Talaat; Jacques J. L. Lukenze Tamuzi; Ker-Kan Tan; Nathan Y. Tat; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Dufera Rikitu Terefa; Riki Tesler; Pugazhenthan Thangaraju; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Tala Tillawi; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Sana Ullah; Era Upadhyay; Seyed Mohammad Vahabi; Job F. M. van Boven; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Georgios-Ioannis Verras; Rafael José Vieira; Francesco S. Violante; Theo Vos; Ronny Westerman; Nuwan Darshana Wickramasinghe; Hywel C. Williams; Dereje Y. Yada; Yazachew Yismaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Heather J. Zar; Iman Zare; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Mohammad A. Zeineddine; Getachew Assefa Zenebe; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Hanqing Zhao; Mohammad Zoladl
Background: Asthma and atopic dermatitis (AD) are chronic allergic conditions, along with allergic rhinitis and food allergy and cause high morbidity and mortality both in children and adults. This study aims to evaluate the global, regional, national, and temporal trends of the burden of asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019 and analyze their associations with geographic, demographic, social, and clinical factors. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we assessed the age-standardized prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of both asthma and AD from 1990 to 2019, stratified by geographic region, age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI). DALYs were calculated as the sum of years lived with disability and years of life lost to premature mortality. Additionally, the disease burden of asthma attributable to high body mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking was described. Results: In 2019, there were a total of 262 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 224–309 million] cases of asthma and 171 million [95% UI: 165–178 million] total cases of AD globally; age-standardized prevalence rates were 3416 [95% UI: 2899–4066] and 2277 [95% UI: 2192–2369] per 100,000 population for asthma and AD, respectively, a 24.1% [95% UI: −27.2 to −20.8] decrease for asthma and a 4.3% [95% UI: 3.8–4.8] decrease for AD compared to baseline in 1990. Both asthma and AD had similar trends according to age, with age-specific prevalence rates peaking at age 5–9 years and rising again in adulthood. The prevalence and incidence of asthma and AD were both higher for individuals with higher SDI; however, mortality and DALYs rates of individuals with asthma had a reverse trend, with higher mortality and DALYs rates in those in the lower SDI quintiles. Of the three risk factors, high body mass index contributed to the highest DALYs and deaths due to asthma, accounting for a total of 3.65 million [95% UI: 2.14–5.60 million] asthma DALYs and 75,377 [95% UI: 40,615–122,841] asthma deaths. Conclusions: Asthma and AD continue to cause significant morbidity worldwide, having increased in total prevalence and incidence cases worldwide, but having decreased in age-standardized prevalence rates from 1990 to 2019. Although both are more frequent at younger ages and more prevalent in high-SDI countries, each condition has distinct temporal and regional characteristics. Understanding the temporospatial trends in the disease burden of asthma and AD could guide future policies and interventions to better manage these diseases worldwide and achieve equity in prevention, diagnosis, and treatment. © 2023 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.
Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Rajesh Sharma; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Rami Abd-Rabu; Hassan Abidi; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Juan Manuel Acuna; Sangeet Adhikari; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Luai A. Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Saba Alvand; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Saeed Amini; Robert Ancuceanu; Amir Anoushiravani; Ali Arash Anoushirvani; Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam; Jalal Arabloo; Armin Aryannejad; Mohammad Asghari Jafarabadi; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Atalel Fentahun Awedew; Mamaru Ayenew Awoke; Tegegn Mulatu Ayana; Sina Azadnajafabad; Hiva Azami; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ashish D. Badiye; Sara Bagherieh; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Jennifer L. Baker; Maciej Banach; Amadou Barrow; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Sima Besharat; Devidas S. Bhagat; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Neeraj Bhala; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Sadia Bibi; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Tone Bjørge; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Dejana Braithwaite; Hermann Brenner; Daniela Calina; Chao Cao; Yin Cao; Giulia Carreras; Felix Carvalho; Ester Cerin; Raja Chandra Chakinala; William C.S. Cho; Dinh-Toi Chu; Joao Conde; Vera Marisa Costa; Natália Cruz-Martins; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Anna Danielewicz; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Saeid Doaei; Linh Phuong Doan; Milad Dodangeh; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Debela Debela Ejeta; Michael Ekholuenetale; Temitope Cyrus Ekundayo; Iman El Sayed; Muhammed Elhadi; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Tahir Eyayu; Rana Ezzeddini; Ildar Ravisovich Fakhradiyev; Umar Farooque; Hossein Farrokhpour; Farshad Farzadfar; Ali Fatehizadeh; Hamed Fattahi; Nima Fattahi; Masood Fereidoonnezhad; Eduarda Fernandes; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Peter Andras Gaal; Mohamed M. Gad; Silvano Gallus; Tushar Garg; Tamiru Getachew; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Maryam Gholamalizadeh; Jamshid Gholizadeh Navashenaq; Abraham Tamirat Gizaw; James C. Glasbey; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Kebebe Bekele Gonfa; Giuseppe Gorini; Avirup Guha; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Rabih Halwani; Shafiul Haque; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Soheil Hassanipour; Simon I. Hay; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Ivo Iavicoli; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Farhad Islami; Masao Iwagami; Mohammad Ali Jahani; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Tahereh Javaheri; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Tamas Joo; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Ali Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Ashwin Kamath; Neeti Kapoor; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Amirali Karimi; Joonas H. Kauppila; Asma Kazemi; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Rovshan Khalilov; Javad Khanali; Maryam Khayamzadeh; Mahmoud Khodadost; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Jacek A. Kopec; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Ai Koyanagi; Yuvaraj Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Manoj Kumar; Vivek Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Caterina Ledda; Sang-Woong Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Elvynna Leong; Bingyu Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Joana A. Loureiro; Raimundas Lunevicius; Farzan Madadizadeh; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Azeem Majeed; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Miquel Martorell; Sahar Masoudi; Prashant Mathur; Jitendra Kumar Meena; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Tomislav Mestrovic; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Gelana Fekadu Worku Mijena; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Hamed Mirzaei; Sanjeev Misra; Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Saeed Mohammadi; Seyyede Momeneh Mohammadi; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Teroj Abdulrahman Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Zeinab Mokhtari; Mariam Molokhia; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Joana Morgado-Da-Costa; Sumaira Mubarik; Francesk Mulita; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Hae Sung Nam; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ehsan Nazemalhosseini-Mojarad; Ionut Negoi; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Son Hoang Nguyen; Nurulamin M. Noor; Maryam Noori; Seyyed Mohammad Ali Noori; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Andrew T. Olagunju; Tinuke O. Olagunju; Sokking Ong; Samuel M. Ostroff; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Reza Pakzad; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Renato B. Pereira; Navaraj Perumalsamy; Richard G. Pestell; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Akram Pourshams; Naeimeh Pourtaheri; Akila Prashant; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Amir Radfar; Sima Rafiei; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Nazanin Rajai; Aashish Rajesh; Vajiheh Ramezani-Doroh; Kiana Ramezanzadeh; Kamal Ranabhat; Sina Rashedi; Amirfarzan Rashidi; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Mandana Rastegar; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Mohammad Sadegh Razeghinia; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Nima Rezaei; Saeid Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Gholamreza Roshandel; Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad; Bahar Saberzadeh-Ardestani; Basema Saddik; Hossein Sadeghi; Umar Saeed; Maryam Sahebazzamani; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Amir Salek Farrokhi; Amir Salimi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Pouria Samadi; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Maheswar Satpathy; Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider; Mario Šekerija; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Sayed Mohammad Shafiee; Zahra Shaghaghi; Saeed Shahabi; Elaheh Shaker; Maedeh Sharifian; Javad Sharifi-Rad; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Jeevan K. Shetty; Reza Shirkoohi; Parnian Shobeiri; Sudeep K. Siddappa Malleshappa; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Guilherme Silva Julian; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Md Shahjahan Siraj; Gholam Reza Sivandzadeh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Bogdan Socea; Marco Solmi; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Suhang Song; Viktória Szerencsés; Miklós Szócska; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Elnaz Tabibian; Majid Taheri; Yasaman Taheri Abkenar; Amir Taherkhani; Iman M. Talaat; Ker-Kan Tan; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Bekele Tesfaye; Amir Tiyuri; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Mathilde Touvier; Bach Xuan Tran; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Saif Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Massimiliano Veroux; Bay Vo; Theo Vos; Cong Wang; Ronny Westerman; Melat Woldemariam; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Chuanhua Yu; Deniz Yuce; Ismaeel Yunusa; Vesna Zadnik; Mazyar Zahir; Iman Zare; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Mohammad Zoladi
Background: Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods: Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990–2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings: Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408–868 574) to 2·17 million (2·00–2·34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682–537 877) to 1·09 million (1·02–1·15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22·2 (95% UI 21·3–23·0) per 100 000 to 26·7 (24·6–28·9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14·3 (13·5–14·9) per 100 000 to 13·7 (12·6–14·5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308·5 (294·7–320·7) per 100 000 to 295·5 (275·2–313·0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62·0 [48·9–80·0] per 100 000), Monaco (60·7 [48·5–73·6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56·6 [42·8–71·9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31·4 [26·0–37·1] per 100 000), Brunei (30·3 [26·6–34·1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28·6 [23·6–34·0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15·6%), smoking (13·3%), a diet low in calcium (12·9%), and alcohol use (9·9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation: The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2022) Brittney S. Sheena; Lindsey Hiebert; Hannah Han; Helen Ippolito; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Hedayat Abbastabar; Amir Abdoli; Hiwa Abubaker Ali; Mesafint Molla Adane; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Shailesh M. Advani; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Saira Afzal; Mohamad Aghaie Meybodi; Bahman Ahadinezhad; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sajjad Ahmad; Tauseef Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Haroon Ahmed; Muktar Beshir Ahmed; Tarik Ahmed Rashid; Gizachew Taddesse Akalu; Addis Aklilu; Tayyaba Akram; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Dejene Tsegaye Alem; Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Muhammad Ashar Ali; Yousef Alimohamadi; Vahid Alipour; Motasem Alkhayyat; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M. Al-Raddadi; Haya Altawalah; Saeed Amini; Hubert Amu; Robert Ancuceanu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Amir Anoushiravani; Adnan Ansar; Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor; Jalal Arabloo; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Zeleke Gebru Argaw; Muhammad Arshad; Anton A. Artamonov; Tahira Ashraf; Daniel Atlaw; Floriane Ausloos; Marcel Ausloos; Sina Azadnajafabad; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Amirhossein Azari Jafari; Ghasem Azarian; Sayna Bagheri; Saeed Bahadory; Atif Amin Baig; Maciej Banach; Nastaran Barati; Amadou Barrow; Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha; Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez; Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Devidas S. Bhagat; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Antonio Biondi; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Hunduma Amensisa Bojia; Archith Boloor; Cristina Bosetti; Dejana Braithwaite; Nikolay Ivanovich Briko; Zahid A. Butt; Luis Alberto Cámera; Raja Chandra Chakinala; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Shu Chen; Jee-Young Jasmine Choi; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Fazle Rabbi Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; Paolo Angelo Cortesi; Benjamin C. Cowie; Garland T. Culbreth; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Fernando Pio De La Hoz; Sisay Abebe Debela; Mohammed Gebre Dedefo; Feleke Mekonnen Demeke; Takele Gezahegn G. Demie; Getu Debalkie Demissie; Meseret Derbew Molla; Abebaw Alemayehu Desta; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Mojtaba Didehdar; Linh Phuong Doan; Fariba Dorostkar; Thomas M. Drake; Fatemeh Eghbalian; Michael Ekholuenetale; Iman El Sayed; Maysaa El Sayed Zaki; Muhammed Elhadi; Mohamed A. Elmonem; Aisha Elsharkawy; Shymaa Enany; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Ryenchindorj Erkhembayar; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Firooz Esmaeilzadeh; Sayeh Ezzikouri; Hossein Farrokhpour; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Masoud Foroutan; Mohamed M. Gad; Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane; Shilpa Gaidhane; Natalie C. Galles; Silvano Gallus; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Eyob Alemayehu Gebreyohannes; Keyghobad Ghadiri; Kazem Ghaffari; Mansour Ghafourifard; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholami; Abdolmajid Gholizadeh; Aima Gilani; Amit Goel; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Davide Golinelli; Giuseppe Gorini; Yitayal Ayalew Goshu; Max G. Griswold; Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari; Bhawna Gupta; Sapna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Rabih Halwani; Saeed S. Hamid; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Shafiul Haque; Harapan Harapan; Arief Hargono; Sanam Hariri; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; S.M. Mahmudul Hasan; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Golnaz Heidari; Claudiu Herteliu; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Kamal Hezam; Ramesh Holla; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mostafa Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Mihaela Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Nawfal R. Hussein; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Lalu Muhammad Irham; Jessica Y. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Kathryn H. Jacobsen; Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh; Amirreza Javadi Mamaghani; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Rime Jebai; Ravi Prakash Jha; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Billingsley Kaambwa; Ali Kabir; Zubair Kabir; Rohollah Kalhor; Himal Kandel; Tesfaye K. Tesfaye Kanko; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Yousef Saleh Khader; Himanshu Khajuria; Gulfaraz Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Junaid Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Javad Khanali; Amir M. Khater; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Mahmoud Khodadost; Abdullah T. Khoja; Omid Khosravizadeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Hanna Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Jonathan M. Kocarnik; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; G. Anil Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Dharmesh Kumar Lal; Iván Landires; Savita Lasrado; Jeffrey V. Lazarus; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Sang-Woong Lee; Yeong Yeh Lee; Miriam Levi; Jiarui Li; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Platon D. Lopukhov; Joana A. Loureiro; Jennifer H. MacLachlan; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Muhammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Fariborz Mansour-Ghanaei; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo; Philippa C. Matthews; Walter Mendoza; Ritesh G. Menezes; Tuomo J. Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Tomislav Mestrovic; Ted R. Miller; Le Huu Nhat Minh; Andreea Mirica; Seyyedmohammadsadeq Mirmoeeni; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Sanjeev Misra; Prasanna Mithra; Babak Moazen; Ashraf Mohamadkhani; Mokhtar Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Nagabhishek Moka; Ali H. Mokdad; Jalal Moludi; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Ghobad Moradi; Maliheh Moradzadeh; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Paula Moraga; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Sumaira Mubarik; Malaisamy Muniyandi; Christopher J.L. Murray; Mohsen Naghavi; Mukhammad David Naimzada; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Zuhair S. Natto; Biswa Prakash Nayak; Javad Nazari; Ionut Negoi; Serban Mircea Negru; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Huong Lan Thi Nguyen; Che Henry Ngwa; Robina Khan Niazi; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Ali Nowroozi; Virginia Nuñez-Samudio; Bogdan Oancea; Chimedsuren Ochir; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; In-Hwan Oh; Andrew T. Olagunju; Babayemi Oluwaseun Olakunde; Ahmed Omar Bali; Emad Omer; Stanislav S. Otstavnov; Bilcha Oumer; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Urvish K. Patel; Uttam Paudel; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Richard Charles G. Pollok; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Hossein Poustchi; Mohammad Rabiee; Navid Rabiee; Alireza Rafiei; Sima Rafiei; Pavan Manibettu Raghuram; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Setyaningrum Rahmawaty; Aashish Rajesh; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Mahsa Rashidi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Negar Rezaei; Aziz Rezapour; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Godfrey M. Rwegerera; Siamak Sabour; Basema Saddik; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Sarvenaz Salahi; Hamideh Salimzadeh; Chethan Sampath; Abdallah M. Samy; Juan Sanabria; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Arash Sarveazad; Brijesh Sathian; Monika Sawhney; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Murad Ziyaudinovich Shakhmardanov; Mohammed Shannawaz; Suchitra M. Shenoy; Jeevan K. Shetty; Pavanchand H. Shetty; Kenji Shibuya; Jae Il Shin; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Achintya Dinesh Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Amir Ali Sohrabpour; Suhang Song; Seidamir Pasha Tabaeian; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Majid Taheri; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; Ahmad Tavakoli; Abdelghani Tbakhi; Belay Negash Tefera; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Habtamu Molla Tesfaw; Rekha Thapar; Aravind Thavamani; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Daniel Nigusse Tollosa; Maria Elena Tosti; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Eugenio Traini; Mai Thi Ngoc Tran; Indang Trihandini; Biruk Shalmeno Tusa; Irfan Ullah; Marco Vacante; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Adisu Birhanu Weldesenbet; Melat Woldemariam; Suowen Xu; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Mehdi Yaseri; Yigizie Yeshaw; Vahit Yiǧit; Birhanu Wubale Yirdaw; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Mazyar Zahir; Leila Zaki; Mohammad Zamani; Maryam Zamanian; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Theo Vos; John W. Ward; M. Ashworth Dirac
Background: Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods: The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-of-sample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings: In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4·1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 to 4·5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31·3% (29·0 to 33·9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76·8% (76·2 to 77·5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5·9% [–5·6 to 19·2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2·9% [–5·9 to 11·3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation: The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of injuries, and burden attributable to injuries risk factors, 1990 to 2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019
(Elsevier B.V., 2024) Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Negar Rezaei; Sina Azadnajafabad; Javad Khanali; Mohammadreza Azangou-Khyavy; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Mahsa Heidari-Foroozan; Sahba Rezazadeh-Khadem; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader; Ayele Mamo Abebe; Eman Abu-Gharbieh; Dilaram Acharya; Isaac Yeboah Addo; Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo; Oyelola A. Adegboye; Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika Afolabi; Saira Afzal; Muhammad Sohail Afzal; Sajjad Ahmad; Aqeel Ahmad; Ali Ahmadi; Hamid Ahmadieh; Haroon Ahmed; Mehrunnisha Sharif Ahmed; Marjan Ajami; Hossein Akbarialiabad; Chisom Joyqueenet Akunna; Fares Alahdab; Fahad Mashhour Alanezi; Turki M. Alanzi; Robert Kaba Alhassan; Liaqat Ali; Shohreh Alian Samakkhah; Yousef Alimohamadi; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah; Khalid A. Altirkawi; Hiwot Amare; Edward Kwabena Ameyaw; Tarek Tawfik Amin; Sohrab Amiri; Tudorel Andrei; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Davood Anvari; Sumadi Lukman Anwar; Muhammad Aqeel; Morteza Arab-Zozani; Ashokan Arumugam; Umesh Raj Aryal; Malke Asaad; Saeed Asgary; Tahira Ashraf; Thomas Astell-Burt; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Alok Atreya; Avinash Aujayeb; Atalel Fentahun F. Awedew; Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla; Setognal Birara Aychiluhm; Alemu Degu Ayele; Hosein Azizi; Ahmed Y. Azzam; Shankar M. Bakkannavar; Mainak Bardhan; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Hiba Jawdat Barqawi; Amadou Barrow; Azadeh Bashiri; Pritish Baskaran; Saurav Basu; Neeraj Bedi; Alehegn Bekele; Luis Belo; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Soumyadeep Bhaumik; Zulfiqar A. Bhutta; Saeid Bitaraf; Archith Boloor; Guilherme Borges; Rohan Borschmann; Soufiane Boufous; Michael Brauer; Andrew M. Briggs; Julie Brown; Dana Bryazka; Luis Alberto Cámera; Rosario Cárdenas; Márcia Carvalho; Ferrán Catalá-López; Ester Cerin; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Wai Tong Chien; Abdulaal Chitheer; Daniel Youngwhan Cho; Steffan Wittrup McPhee Christensen; Devasahayam J. Christopher; Dinh-Toi Chu; Isaac Sunday Chukwu; Beniamino Cislaghi; Scott Richard Clark; Natalia Cruz-Martins; Patricia Cullen; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Giovanni Damiani; Rakhi Dandona; Gary L. Darmstadt; Reza Darvishi Cheshmeh Soltani; Aso Mohammad Darwesh; Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes; Diego De Leo; Katie de Luca; Andreas K. Demetriades; Biniyam Demisse; Fitsum Wolde Demisse; Solomon Demissie; Belay Desye; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mengistie Diress; Shirin Djalalinia; Milad Dodangeh; Deepa Dongarwar; Hisham Atan Edinur; Ebrahim Eini; Michael Ekholuenetale; Frank J. Elgar; Islam Y. Elgendy; Hala Rashad Elhabashy; Muhammed Elhadi; Waseem El-Huneidi; Mohammad Hassan Emamian; Luchuo Engelbert Bain; Daniel Berhanie Enyew; Habitu Birhan Eshetu; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Farshid Etaee; Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe; Andre Faro; Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi; Ali Fatehizadeh; Xiaoqi Feng; Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad; Pietro Ferrara; Getahun Fetensa; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Takeshi Fukumoto; Yaseen Galali; Nasrin Galehdar; Fortune Gbetoho Gankpe; Mesfin Gebrehiwot; Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel; Leta Adugna Geleta; Motuma Erena Getachew; Mansour Ghafourifard; Mohammad Ghasemi Nour; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Ali Gholamrezanezhad; Tiffany K. Gill; Themba G. Ginindza; James C. Glasbey; Laszlo Göbölös; Kimiya Gohari; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Michal Grivna; Damitha Asanga Gunawardane; Bhawna Gupta; Brian J. Hall; Randah R. Hamadeh; Pawan Kumar Hamal; Sajid Hameed; Samer Hamidi; Mohammad Hamiduzzaman; Asif Hanif; Syed Emdadul Haque; Arief Hargono; Netanja I. Harlianto; Risky Kusuma Hartono; Ahmed I. Hasaballah; Hamidreza Hasani; Hossein Hassanian-Moghaddam; Soheil Hassanipour; Hadi Hassankhani; Khezar Hayat; Mohammad Heidari; Delia Hendrie; Demisu Zenbaba Heyi; Yuta Hiraike; Nobuyuki Horita; Mohammad Bellal Hossain; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Amir Human Hoveidaei; Guoqing Hu; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Mustapha Immurana; Leeberk Raja Inbaraj; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Rakibul M. Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Jagnoor Jagnoor; Haitham Jahrami; Mihajlo Jakovljevic; Elham Jamshidi; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Tahereh Javaheri; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Jayakumar Jeganathan; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Farahnaz Joukar; Mikk Jürisson; Ali Kabir; Vidya Kadashetti; Rajesh Kamath; Ashwin Kamath; Bhushan Dattatray Kamble; Himal Kandel; Rami S. Kantar; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Samad Karkhah; Faizan Zaffar Kashoo; Bekalu Getnet Kassa; Joonas H. Kauppila; Leila Keikavoosi-Arani; Phillip M. Kemp Bohan; Mohammad Keykhaei; Nauman Khalid; Mohammad Khammarnia; Moien A.B. Khan; M. Nuruzzaman Khan; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Maseer Khan; Moawiah Mohammad Khatatbeh; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Gyu Ri Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Farzad Kompani; K.M. Marulasiddaiah Kondlahalli Shivakumar; Parvaiz A. Koul; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Estie Kruger; Burcu Kucuk Bicer; Nithin Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Carlo La Vecchia; Hilton Lam; Faris Hasan Lami; Iván Landires; Van Charles Lansingh; Paolo Lauriola; Long Khanh Dao Le; Janet L. Leasher; Caterina Ledda; Doo Woong Lee; Yo Han Lee; Wei-Chen Lee; Andrew Tiyamike Makhiringa Likaka; Stephen S. Lim; Shai Linn; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Raimundas Lunevicius; Ronan A. Lyons; Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek; Mahadeshwara Prasad; Razzagh Mahmoudi; Azeem Majeed; Jeadran N. Malagón-Rojas; Elaheh Malakan Rad; Deborah Carvalho Malta; Yosef Manla; Borhan Mansouri; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Joemer C. Maravilla; Elezebeth Mathews; Pallab K. Maulik; Enkeleint A. Mechili; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Walter Mendoza; Dechasa Adare Mengistu; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Tomasz Miazgowski; Shabir Ahmad Mir; Andreea Mirica; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Moonis Mirza; Soheil Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Modhurima Moitra; Ali H. Mokdad; Mariam Molokhia; Lorenzo Monasta; Maryam Moradi; Shane Douglas Morrison; Sumaira Mubarik; Efren Murillo-Zamora; Ghulam Mustafa; Ashraf Fawzy Nabhan; Vinay Nangia; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Zuhair S. Natto; Ionut Negoi; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Evangelia Nena; Samata Nepal; Haruna Asura Nggada; Josephine W. Ngunjiri; Chukwudi A. Nnaji; Ogochukwu Janet Nzoputam; Chimezie Igwegbe Nzoputam; Bogdan Oancea; Kehinde O. Obamiro; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Onome Bright Oghenetega; Oh In-Hwan; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Osaretin Christabel Okonji; Adeolu Olufunso Oladunjoye; Andrew T. Olagunju; Diriba Dereje Olana; Ahmed Omar Bali; Adrian Otoiu; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Mahesh Padukudru P A; Alicia Padron-Monedero; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Seithikurippu R. Pandi-Perumal; Shahina Pardhan; Park Eun-Kee; Jay Patel; Uttam Paudel; Shrikant Pawar; Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi; Amy E. Peden; Paolo Pedersini; Marcos Pereira; Konrad Pesudovs; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Tom Pham; Michael R. Phillips; Zahra Zahid Piracha; Suzanne Polinder; Ibrahim Qattea; Ata Rafiee; Pankaja Raghav; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Vahid Rahmanian; Sheena Ramazanu; Usha Rani; Temam Beshir Raru; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Prateek Rastogi; Azad Rasul; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; Reza Rawassizadeh; Maryam Rezaei; Nazila Rezaei; Mohsen Rezaeian; Muhammad Riaz; Jennifer Rickard; Nicholas L.S. Roberts; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Luca Ronfani; Bedanta Roy; S. Manjula; S.N. Chandan; Siamak Sabour; Mohammad Reza Saeb; Umar Saeed; Sare Safi; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Biniyam Sahiledengle; Mohammad Ali Sahraian; Payman Salamati; Juan Sanabria; Muhammad Arif Nadeem Saqib; Yaser Sarikhani; Arash Sarveazad; Davide Sattin; Ganesh Kumar Saya; David C. Schwebel; Binyam Tariku Seboka; Abdul-Aziz Seidu; Allen Seylani; Pritik A. Shah; Ataollah Shahbandi; Amira A. Shaheen; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohd Shanawaz; Nigussie Tadesse Sharew; Azam Sharifi; Neeraj Sharma; Vishal Sharma; Bereket Beyene Shashamo; Ali Sheidaei; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jiabin Shen; Adithi Shetty; B. Suresh Kumar Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Seyed Afshin Shorofi; Roman Shrestha; Negussie Boti Sidamo; Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues Silva; Wudneh Simegn; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Ambrish Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; David A. Sleet; Bogdan Socea; Yonatan Solomon; Yi Song; Houman Sotoudeh; Raul A.R. C. Sousa; Jeffrey D. Stanaway; Dan J. Stein; Paschalis Steiropoulos; Mark A. Stokes; Narayan Subedi; Jing Sun; Rafael Tabarés-Seisdedos; Moslem Taheri Soodejani; Mircea Tampa; Ker-Kan Tan; M.D. Tariqujjaman; Elvis Enowbeyang Tarkang; Nathan Y. Tat; Yibekal Manaye Tefera; Rekha Thapar; Jansje Henny Vera Ticoalu; Jaya Prasad Tripathy; Lorainne Tudor Car; Derara Girma Tufa; Sana Ullah; Irfan Ullah; Krishna Kishore Umapathi; Era Upadhyay; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Shoban Babu Varthya; Massimiliano Veroux; Dominique Vervoort; Francesco S. Violante; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Gizachew Tadesse Wassie; Taweewat Wiangkham; Caroline Wilkerson; Asrat Arja Wolde; Hong Xiao; Yuichiro Yano; Sanni Yaya; Pengpeng Ye; Paul Yip; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z. Younis; Chuanhua Yu; Leila Zaki; Michael Zastrozhin; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Sanjay Zodpey; Mohsen Naghavi; Bagher Larijani; Farshad Farzadfar
Objectives: In this study, the trends and current situation of the injury burden as well as attributable burden to injury risk factors at global, regional, and national levels based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 are presented. Study design: To assess the attributable burden of injury risk factors, the data of interest on data sources were retrieved from the Global Health Data Exchange (GHDx) and analyzed. Methods: Cause-specific death from injuries was estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model in the GBD 2019. The burden attributable to each injury risk factor was incorporated in the population attributable fraction to estimate the total attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life years. The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) was used to evaluate countries’ developmental status. Results: Globally, there were 713.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 663.8 to 766.9) injuries incidence and 4.3 million (UI: 3.9 to 4.6) deaths caused by injuries in 2019. There was an inverse relationship between age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate and SDI quintiles in 2019. Overall, low bone mineral density was the leading risk factor of injury deaths in 2019, with a contribution of 10.5% (UI: 9.0 to 11.6) of total injuries and age-standardized deaths, followed by occupational risks (7.0% [UI: 6.3–7.9]) and alcohol use (6.8% [UI: 5.2 to 8.5]). Conclusion: Various risks were responsible for the imposed burden of injuries. This study highlighted the small but persistent share of injuries in the global burden of diseases and injuries to provide beneficial data to produce proper policies to reach an effective global injury prevention plan. © 2024
Global, regional, and national burden of low back pain, 1990–2020, its attributable risk factors, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Manuela L Ferreira; Katie De Luca; Lydia M Haile; Jaimie D Steinmetz; Garland T Culbreth; Marita Cross; Jacek A Kopec; Paulo H Ferreira; Fiona M Blyth; Rachelle Buchbinder; Jan Hartvigsen; Ai-Min Wu; Saeid Safiri; Anthony D Woolf; Gary S Collins; Kanyin Liane Ong; Stein Emil Vollset; Amanda E Smith; Jessica A Cruz; Kai Glenn Fukutaki; Semagn Mekonnen Abate; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Zeinab Abbasi-Kangevari; Ahmed Abdelalim; Aidin Abedi; Hassan Abidi; Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani; Ali Ahmadi; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Abayneh Tadesse Alamer; Adugnaw Zeleke Alem; Yousef Alimohamadi; Mansour Abdullah Alshehri; Mohammed Mansour Alshehri; Hosam Alzahrani; Saeed Amini; Sohrab Amiri; Hubert Amu; Catalina Liliana Andrei; Tudorel Andrei; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Judie Arulappan; Ashokan Arumugam; Tahira Ashraf; Seyyed Shamsadin Athari; Nefsu Awoke; Sina Azadnajafabad; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Lope H Barrero; Amadou Barrow; Akbar Barzegar; Lindsay M Bearne; Isabela M Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Bharti Bhandari Bhandari; Vijayalakshmi S Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Belay Boda Abule Bodicha; Srinivasa Rao Bolla; Javier Brazo-Sayavera; Andrew M Briggs; Chao Cao; Periklis Charalampous; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Flavia M Cicuttini; Benjamin Clarsen; Sarah Cuschieri; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Azizallah Dehghan; Takele Gezahegn G Demie; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Syed Masudur Rahman Dewan; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Mojtaba Didehdar; Lankamo Ena Digesa; Mengistie Diress; Hoa Thi Do; Linh Phuong Doan; Michael Ekholuenetale; Muhammed Elhadi; Sharareh Eskandarieh; Shahriar Faghani; Jawad Fares; Ali Fatehizadeh; Getahun Fetensa; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Richard Charles Franklin; Balasankar Ganesan; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Motuma Erena Getachew; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Tiffany K Gill; Mahaveer Golechha; Pouya Goleij; Bhawna Gupta; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Arvin Haj-Mirzaian; Pawan Kumar Hamal; Asif Hanif; Netanja I Harlianto; Hamidreza Hasani; Simon I Hay; Jeffrey J Hebert; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad Heidari; Reza Heidari-Soureshjani; Mbuzeleni Mbuzeleni Hlongwa; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Irena M Ilic; Milena D Ilic; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Manthan Dilipkumar Janodia; Ravi Prakash Jha; Har Ashish Jindal; Jost B Jonas; Gebisa Guyasa Kabito; Himal Kandel; Rimple Jeet Kaur; Vikash Ranjan Keshri; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Md Jobair Khan; Moien A B Khan; Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani; Jagdish Khubchandani; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Jitka Klugarová; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Hamid Reza Koohestani; Ai Koyanagi; G Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Wei-Chen Lee; Yo Han Lee; Ata Mahmoodpoor; Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Reza Malekzadeh; Narges Malih; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Entezar Mehrabi Nasab; Ritesh G Menezes; Alexios-Fotios A Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Ted R Miller; Mohammad Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari; Maryam Mobarakabadi; Yousef Mohammad; Esmaeil Mohammadi; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Lorenzo Monasta; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ebrahim Mostafavi; Christopher J L Murray; Tapas Sadasivan Nair; Javad Nazari; Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi; Subas Neupane; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Cuong Tat Nguyen; Ali Nowroozi; Hassan Okati-Aliabad; Emad Omer; Abderrahim Oulhaj; Mayowa O Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Eun-Kee Park; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Jeevan Pereira; Mario F P Peres; Ionela-Roxana Petcu; Mohammadreza Pourahmadi; Amir Radfar; Shahram Rahimi-Dehgolan; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Chythra R Rao; Vahid Rashedi; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; Zubair Ahmed Ratan; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Andre M N Renzaho; Negar Rezaei; Zahed Rezaei; Leonardo Roever; Guilherme De Andrade Ruela; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Francesco Sanmarchi; Sadaf G Sepanlou; Saeed Shahabi; Shayan Shahrokhi; Elaheh Shaker; Mohammad Bagher Shamsi; Mohammed Shannawaz; Saurab Sharma; Maryam Shaygan; Rahim Ali Sheikhi; Jeevan K Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Siddharudha Shivalli; Parnian Shobeiri; Migbar Mekonnen Sibhat; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A Singh; Helen Slater; Marco Solmi; Ranjani Somayaji; Ker-Kan Tan; Rekha Thapar; Seyed Abolfazl Tohidast; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Rohollah Valizadeh; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Vasily Vlassov; Bay Vo; Yuan-Pang Wang; Taweewat Wiangkham; Lalit Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Lin Yang; Fereshteh Yazdanpanah; Naohiro Yonemoto; Mustafa Z Younis; Iman Zare; Armin Zarrintan; Mohammad Zoladl; Theo Vos; Lyn M March
Background: Low back pain is highly prevalent and the main cause of years lived with disability (YLDs). We present the most up-to-date global, regional, and national data on prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021. Methods: Population-based studies from 1980 to 2019 identified in a systematic review, international surveys, US medical claims data, and dataset contributions by collaborators were used to estimate the prevalence and YLDs for low back pain from 1990 to 2020, for 204 countries and territories. Low back pain was defined as pain between the 12th ribs and the gluteal folds that lasted a day or more; input data using alternative definitions were adjusted in a network meta-regression analysis. Nested Bayesian meta-regression models were used to estimate prevalence and YLDs by age, sex, year, and location. Prevalence was projected to 2050 by running a regression on prevalence rates using Socio-demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying them by projected population estimates. Findings: In 2020, low back pain affected 619 million (95% uncertainty interval 554–694) people globally, with a projection of 843 million (759–933) prevalent cases by 2050. In 2020, the global age-standardised rate of YLDs was 832 per 100 000 (578–1070). Between 1990 and 2020, age-standardised rates of prevalence and YLDs decreased by 10·4% (10·9–10·0) and 10·5% (11·1–10·0), respectively. A total of 38·8% (28·7–47·0) of YLDs were attributed to occupational factors, smoking, and high BMI. Interpretation: Low back pain remains the leading cause of YLDs globally, and in 2020, there were more than half a billion prevalent cases of low back pain worldwide. While age-standardised rates have decreased modestly over the past three decades, it is projected that globally in 2050, more than 800 million people will have low back pain. Challenges persist in obtaining primary country-level data on low back pain, and there is an urgent need for more high-quality, primary, country-level data on both prevalence and severity distributions to improve accuracy and monitor change. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2020 and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
(Elsevier Ltd, 2023) Jaimie D. Steinmetz; Garland T. Culbreth; Lydia M. Haile; Quinn Rafferty; Justin Lo; Kai Glenn Fukutaki; Jessica A. Cruz; Amanda E. Smith; Stein Emil Vollset; Peter M. Brooks; Marita Cross; Anthony D. Woolf; Hailey Hagins; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Aidin Abedi; Ilana N. Ackerman; Hubert Amu; Benny Antony; Jalal Arabloo; Aleksandr Y. Aravkin; Ayele Mamo Argaw; Anton A. Artamonov; Tahira Ashraf; Amadou Barrow; Lindsay M. Bearne; Isabela M. Bensenor; Alemshet Yirga Berhie; Nikha Bhardwaj; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Vijayalakshmi S. Bhojaraja; Ali Bijani; Paul Svitil Briant; Andrew M. Briggs; Nadeem Shafique Butt; Jaykaran Charan; Vijay Kumar Chattu; Flavia M. Cicuttini; Kaleb Coberly; Omid Dadras; Xiaochen Dai; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Katie de Luca; Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Meghnath Dhimal; Mostafa Dianatinasab; Karsten E. Dreinhoefer; Muhammed Elhadi; Umar Farooque; Hamid Reza Farpour; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; Marisa Freitas; Balasankar Ganesan; Belete Negese Belete Gemeda; Tamiru Getachew; Seyyed-Hadi Ghamari; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Tiffany K. Gill; Mahaveer Golechha; Davide Golinelli; Bhawna Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Rasool Haddadi; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Rabih Halwani; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Netanja I. Harlianto; Josep Maria Haro; Jan Hartvigsen; Simon I. Hay; Jeffrey J. Hebert; Golnaz Heidari; Mohammad-Salar Hosseini; Mehdi Hosseinzadeh; Alexander Kevin Hsiao; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Louis Jacob; Ranil Jayawardena; Ravi Prakash Jha; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Himal Kandel; Ibraheem M. Karaye; Md Jobair Khan; Yun Jin Kim; Ali-Asghar Kolahi; Oleksii Korzh; Rajasekaran Koteeswaran; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; G. Anil Kumar; Narinder Kumar; Sang-Woong Lee; Stephen S. Lim; Stany W. Lobo; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Mohammad-Reza Malekpour; Ahmad Azam Malik; Luiz Garcia Garcia Mandarano-Filho; Santi Martini; Alexios-Fotios A. Mentis; Mohamed Kamal Mesregah; Tomislav Mestrovic; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Awoke Misganaw; Reza Mohammadpourhodki; Ali H. Mokdad; Sara Momtazmanesh; Shane Douglas Morrison; Christopher J.L. Murray; Hasan Nassereldine; Henok Biresaw Netsere; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Songhomitra Panda-Jonas; Anamika Pandey; Shrikant Pawar; Paolo Pedersini; Jeevan Pereira; Amir Radfar; Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Reza Rawassizadeh; Seyed-Mansoor Rayegani; Daniela Ribeiro; Leonardo Roever; Basema Saddik; Amirhossein Sahebkar; Sana Salehi; Lidia Sanchez Riera; Francesco Sanmarchi; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Elaheh Shaker; Mohammed Shannawaz; Rajendra Sharma; Saurab Sharma; Jeevan K. Shetty; Rahman Shiri; Parnian Shobeiri; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Ambrish Singh; Jasvinder A. Singh; Surjit Singh; Søren T. Skou; Helen Slater; Mohammad Sadegh Soltani-Zangbar; Antonina V. Starodubova; Arash Tehrani-Banihashemi; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Pascual R. Valdez; Bay Vo; Linh Gia Vu; Yuan-Pang Wang; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Naohiro Yonemoto; Ismaeel Yunusa; Lyn M. March; Kanyin Liane Ong; Theo Vos; Jacek A. Kopec
Background: Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis in adults, characterised by chronic pain and loss of mobility. Osteoarthritis most frequently occurs after age 40 years and prevalence increases steeply with age. WHO has designated 2021–30 the decade of healthy ageing, which highlights the need to address diseases such as osteoarthritis, which strongly affect functional ability and quality of life. Osteoarthritis can coexist with, and negatively effect, other chronic conditions. Here we estimate the burden of hand, hip, knee, and other sites of osteoarthritis across geographies, age, sex, and time, with forecasts of prevalence to 2050. Methods: In this systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, osteoarthritis prevalence in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 was estimated using data from population-based surveys from 26 countries for knee osteoarthritis, 23 countries for hip osteoarthritis, 42 countries for hand osteoarthritis, and US insurance claims for all of the osteoarthritis sites, including the other types of osteoarthritis category. The reference case definition was symptomatic, radiographically confirmed osteoarthritis. Studies using alternative definitions from the reference case definition (for example self-reported osteoarthritis) were adjusted to reference using regression models. Osteoarthritis severity distribution was obtained from a pooled meta-analysis of sources using the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index. Final prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights to calculate years lived with disability (YLDs). Prevalence was forecast to 2050 using a mixed-effects model. Findings: Globally, 595 million (95% uncertainty interval 535–656) people had osteoarthritis in 2020, equal to 7·6% (95% UI 6·8–8·4) of the global population, and an increase of 132·2% (130·3–134·1) in total cases since 1990. Compared with 2020, cases of osteoarthritis are projected to increase 74·9% (59·4–89·9) for knee, 48·6% (35·9–67·1) for hand, 78·6% (57·7–105·3) for hip, and 95·1% (68·1–135·0) for other types of osteoarthritis by 2050. The global age-standardised rate of YLDs for total osteoarthritis was 255·0 YLDs (119·7–557·2) per 100 000 in 2020, a 9·5% (8·6–10·1) increase from 1990 (233·0 YLDs per 100 000, 109·3–510·8). For adults aged 70 years and older, osteoarthritis was the seventh ranked cause of YLDs. Age-standardised prevalence in 2020 was more than 5·5% in all world regions, ranging from 5677·4 (5029·8–6318·1) per 100 000 in southeast Asia to 8632·7 (7852·0–9469·1) per 100 000 in high-income Asia Pacific. Knee was the most common site for osteoarthritis. High BMI contributed to 20·4% (95% UI –1·7 to 36·6) of osteoarthritis. Potentially modifiable risk factors for osteoarthritis such as recreational injury prevention and occupational hazards have not yet been explored in GBD modelling. Interpretation: Age-standardised YLDs attributable to osteoarthritis are continuing to rise and will lead to substantial increases in case numbers because of population growth and ageing, and because there is no effective cure for osteoarthritis. The demand on health systems for care of patients with osteoarthritis, including joint replacements, which are highly effective for late stage osteoarthritis in hips and knees, will rise in all regions, but might be out of reach and lead to further health inequity for individuals and countries unable to afford them. Much more can and should be done to prevent people getting to that late stage. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Institute of Bone and Joint Research, and Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health. © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
(Elsevier Ltd, 2021) Valery L. Feigin; Benjamin A. Stark; Catherine Owens Johnson; Gregory A. Roth; Catherine Bisignano; Gdiom Gebreheat Abady; Mitra Abbasifard; Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari; Foad Abd-Allah; Vida Abedi; Ahmed Abualhasan; Niveen M.E. Abu-Rmeileh; Abdelrahman I. Abushouk; Oladimeji M. Adebayo; Gina Agarwal; Pradyumna Agasthi; Bright Opoku Ahinkorah; Sohail Ahmad; Sepideh Ahmadi; Yusra Ahmed Salih; Budi Aji; Samaneh Akbarpour; Rufus Olusola Akinyemi; Hanadi Al Hamad; Fares Alahdab; Sheikh Mohammad Alif; Vahid Alipour; Syed Mohamed Aljunid; Sami Almustanyir; Rajaa M Al-Raddadi; Rustam Al-Shahi Salman; Nelson Alvis-Guzman; Robert Ancuceanu; Deanna Anderlini; Jason A. Anderson; Adnan Ansar; Ippazio Cosimo Antonazzo; Jalal Arabloo; Johan Ärnlöv; Kurnia Dwi Artanti; Zahra Aryan; Samaneh Asgari; Tahira Ashraf; Mohammad Athar; Alok Atreya; Marcel Ausloos; Atif Amin Baig; Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu; MacIej Banach; Miguel A. Barboza; Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo; Till Winfried Bärnighausen; Mark Thomaz Ugliara Barone; Sanjay Basu; Gholamreza Bazmandegan; Ettore Beghi; Mahya Beheshti; Yannick Béjot; Arielle Wilder Bell; Derrick A. Bennett; Isabela M. Bensenor; Woldesellassie Mequanint Bezabhe; Yihienew Mequanint Bezabih; Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula; Pankaj Bhardwaj; Krittika Bhattacharyya; Ali Bijani; Boris Bikbov; Mulugeta M. Birhanu; Archith Boloor; Aime Bonny; Michael Brauer; Hermann Brenner; Dana Bryazka; Zahid A. Butt; Florentino Luciano Caetano Dos Santos; Ismael R. Campos-Nonato; Carlos Cantu-Brito; Juan J. Carrero; Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela; Alberico L. Catapano; Promit Ananyo Chakraborty; Jaykaran Charan; Sonali Gajanan Choudhari; Enayet Karim Chowdhury; Dinh-Toi Chu; Sheng-Chia Chung; David Colozza; Vera Marisa Costa; Simona Costanzo; Michael H. Criqui; Omid Dadras; Baye Dagnew; Xiaochen Dai; Koustuv Dalal; Albertino Antonio Moura Damasceno; Emanuele D'Amico; Lalit Dandona; Rakhi Dandona; Jiregna Darega Gela; Kairat Davletov; Vanessa De La Cruz-Góngora; Rupak Desai; Deepak Dhamnetiya; Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne; Mandira Lamichhane Dhimal; Meghnath Dhimal; Daniel Diaz; Martin Dichgans; Klara Dokova; Rajkumar Doshi; Abdel Douiri; Bruce B. Duncan; Sahar Eftekharzadeh; Michael Ekholuenetale; Nevine El Nahas; Islam Y. Elgendy; Muhammed Elhadi; Shaimaa I El-Jaafary; Matthias Endres; Aman Yesuf Endries; Daniel Asfaw Erku; Emerito Jose A. Faraon; Umar Farooque; Farshad Farzadfar; Abdullah Hamid Feroze; Irina Filip; Florian Fischer; David Flood; Mohamed M. Gad; Shilpa Gaidhane; Reza Ghanei Gheshlagh; Ahmad Ghashghaee; Nermin Ghith; Ghozali Ghozali; Sherief Ghozy; Alessandro Gialluisi; Simona Giampaoli; Syed Amir Gilani; Paramjit Singh Gill; Elena V. Gnedovskaya; Mahaveer Golechha; Alessandra C. Goulart; Yuming Guo; Rajeev Gupta; Veer Bala Gupta; Vivek Kumar Gupta; Pradip Gyanwali; Nima Hafezi-Nejad; Samer Hamidi; Asif Hanif; Graeme J. Hankey; Arief Hargono; Abdiwahab Hashi; Treska S. Hassan; Hamid Yimam Hassen; Rasmus J. Havmoeller; Simon I. Hay; Khezar Hayat; Mohamed I. Hegazy; Claudiu Herteliu; Ramesh Holla; Sorin Hostiuc; Mowafa Househ; Junjie Huang; Ayesha Humayun; Bing-Fang Hwang; Licia Iacoviello; Ivo Iavicoli; Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye; Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi; Irena M. Ilic; Milena D. Ilic; Usman Iqbal; Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani; Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam; Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail; Hiroyasu Iso; Gaetano Isola; Masao Iwagami; Louis Jacob; Vardhmaan Jain; Sung-In Jang; Sathish Kumar Jayapal; Shubha Jayaram; Ranil Jayawardena; Panniyammakal Jeemon; Ravi Prakash Jha; Walter D. Johnson; Jost B. Jonas; Nitin Joseph; Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak; Mikk Jürisson; Rizwan Kalani; Rohollah Kalhor; Yogeshwar Kalkonde; Ashwin Kamath; Zahra Kamiab; Tanuj Kanchan; Himal Kandel; André Karch; Patrick D.M.C. Katoto; Gbenga A. Kayode; Pedram Keshavarz; Yousef Saleh Khader; Ejaz Ahmad Khan; Imteyaz A. Khan; Maseer Khan; Moien A.B. Khan; Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib; Jagdish Khubchandani; Gyu Ri Kim; Min Seo Kim; Yun Jin Kim; Adnan Kisa; Sezer Kisa; Mika Kivimäki; Dhaval Kolte; Ali Koolivand; Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana; Ai Koyanagi; Kewal Krishan; Vijay Krishnamoorthy; Rita V. Krishnamurthi; G. Anil Kumar; Dian Kusuma; Carlo La Vecchia; Ben Lacey; Hassan Mehmood Lak; Tea Lallukka; Savita Lasrado; Pablo M. Lavados; Matilde Leonardi; Bingyu Li; Shanshan Li; Hualiang Lin; Ro-Ting Lin; Xuefeng Liu; Warren David Lo; Stefan Lorkowski; Giancarlo Lucchetti; Ricardo Lutzky Saute; Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek; Francesca Giulia Magnani; Preetam Bhalchandra Mahajan; Azeem Majeed; Alaa Makki; Reza Malekzadeh; Ahmad Azam Malik; Navid Manafi; Mohammad Ali Mansournia; Lorenzo Giovanni Mantovani; Santi Martini; Giampiero Mazzaglia; Man Mohan Mehndiratta; Ritesh G. Menezes; Atte Meretoja; Amanual Getnet Mersha; Junmei Miao Jonasson; Bartosz Miazgowski; Tomasz Miazgowski; Irmina Maria Michalek; Erkin M. Mirrakhimov; Yousef Mohammad; Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani; Shafiu Mohammed; Ali H. Mokdad; Yaser Mokhayeri; Mariam Molokhia; Mohammad Ali Moni; Ahmed Al Montasir; Rahmatollah Moradzadeh; Lidia Morawska; Jakub Morze; Walter Muruet; Kamarul Imran Musa; Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan; Mohsen Naghavi; Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy; Bruno Ramos Nascimento; Ruxandra Irina Negoi; Sandhya Neupane Kandel; Trang Huyen Nguyen; Bo Norrving; Jean Jacques Noubiap; Vincent Ebuka Nwatah; Bogdan Oancea; Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya; Andrew T. Olagunju; Hans Orru; Mayowa O. Owolabi; Jagadish Rao Padubidri; Adrian Pana; Tarang Parekh; Eun-Cheol Park; Fatemeh Pashazadeh Kan; Mona Pathak; Mario F.P. Peres; Arokiasamy Perianayagam; Truong-Minh Pham; Michael A. Piradov; Vivek Podder; Suzanne Polinder; Maarten J. Postma; Akram Pourshams; Amir Radfar; Alireza Rafiei; Alberto Raggi; Fakher Rahim; Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar; Mosiur Rahman; Muhammad Aziz Rahman; Amir Masoud Rahmani; Nazanin Rajai; Priyanga Ranasinghe; Chythra R. Rao; Sowmya J. Rao; Priya Rathi; David Laith Rawaf; Salman Rawaf; Marissa B. Reitsma; Vishnu Renjith; Andre M.N. Renzaho; Aziz Rezapour; Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez; Leonardo Roever; Michele Romoli; Andrzej Rynkiewicz; Simona Sacco; Masoumeh Sadeghi; Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam; Amirhossein Sahebkar; K.M. Saif-Ur-Rahman; Rehab Salah; Mehrnoosh Samaei; Abdallah M. Samy; Itamar S. Santos; Milena M. Santric-Milicevic; Nizal Sarrafzadegan; Brijesh Sathian; Davide Sattin; Silvia Schiavolin; Markus P. Schlaich; Maria Inês Schmidt; Aletta Elisabeth Schutte; Sadaf G. Sepanlou; Allen Seylani; Feng Sha; Saeed Shahabi; Masood Ali Shaikh; Mohammed Shannawaz; Md. Shajedur Rahman Shawon; Aziz Sheikh; Sara Sheikhbahaei; Kenji Shibuya; Soraya Siabani; Diego Augusto Santos Silva; Jasvinder A. Singh; Jitendra Kumar Singh; Valentin Yurievich Skryabin; Anna Aleksandrovna Skryabina; Badr Hasan Sobaih; Stefan Stortecky; Saverio Stranges; Eyayou Girma Tadesse; Ingan Ukur Tarigan; Mohamad-Hani Temsah; Yvonne Teuschl; Amanda G. Thrift; Marcello Tonelli; Marcos Roberto Tovani-Palone; Bach Xuan Tran; Manjari Tripathi; Gebiyaw Wudie Tsegaye; Anayat Ullah; Brigid Unim; Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan; Alireza Vakilian; Sahel Valadan Tahbaz; Tommi Juhani Vasankari; Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian; Dominique Vervoort; Bay Vo; Victor Volovici; Kia Vosoughi; Giang Thu Vu; Linh Gia Vu; Hatem A. Wafa; Yasir Waheed; Yanzhong Wang; Tissa Wijeratne; Andrea Sylvia Winkler; Charles D.A. Wolfe; Mark Woodward; Jason H. Wu; Sarah Wulf Hanson; Xiaoyue Xu; Lalit Yadav; Ali Yadollahpour; Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari; Kazumasa Yamagishi; Hiroshi Yatsuya; Naohiro Yonemoto; Chuanhua Yu; Ismaeel Yunusa; Muhammed Shahriar Zaman; Sojib Bin Zaman; Maryam Zamanian; Ramin Zand; Alireza Zandifar; Mikhail Sergeevich Zastrozhin; Anasthasia Zastrozhina; Yunquan Zhang; Zhi-Jiang Zhang; Chenwen Zhong; Yves Miel H. Zuniga; Christopher J.L. Murray
Background Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.