Browsing by Author "Yujwal Raj"

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Modelling and estimation of HIV prevalence and number of people living with HIV in India, 2010–2011
(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2016) Yujwal Raj; Damodar Sahu; Arvind Pandey; S. Venkatesh; D.C.S. Reddy; Taoufik Bakkali; Chinmoyee Das; Kh Jitenkumar Singh; Shashi Kant; M. Bhattacharya; John Stover; Ugra Mohan Jha; Pradeep Kumar; Ram Manohar Mishra; Nalini Chandra; B.K. Gulati; Sharad Mathur; Deepika Joshi; L. Chavan
This paper provides HIV estimation methodology used in India and key HIV estimates for 2010–2011. We used a modified version of the Spectrum tool that included an Estimation and Projection Package as part of its AIDS Impact Module. Inputs related to population size, age-specific pattern of fertility, gender-ratio at birth, age and gender-specific pattern of mortality, and volume and age–gender distribution of net migration were derived from census records, the Sample Registration System and large-scale demographic health surveys. Epidemiological and programmatic data were derived from HIV sentinel surveillance, large-scale epidemiological surveys and the programme management information system. Estimated adult HIV prevalence retained a declining trend in India, following its peak in 2002 at a level of 0.41% (within bounds 0.35–0.47%). By 2010 and 2011, it levelled at estimates of 0.28% (0.24–0.34%) and 0.27% (0.22–0.33%), respectively. The estimated number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) reduced by 8% between 2007 and 2011. While children accounted for approximately 6.3% of total HIV infections in 2007, this proportion increased to about 7% in 2011. With changing priorities and epidemic patterns, the programme has to customise its strategies to effectively address the emerging vulnerabilities and adapt them to suit the requirements of different geographical regions. © 2016, © The Author(s) 2016.
Prevalence and determinants of heterosexual anal-intercourse among female sex workers in India: Findings from nationwide cross-sectional biological and behavioural survey
(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2023) Partha Haldar; Pradeep Kumar; Sanjay Rai; Shashi Kant; Yujwal Raj; Chandrasekhar Reddy; Shobini Rajan; Arvind Pandey; S. Venkatesh; Kiran Goswami; Puneet Misra
Background: The vulnerability of female sex workers (FSWs) to HIV infection increases if unprotected heterosexual anal intercourse (HAI) is practiced. Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of HAI among FSWs, and associated factors, and prevalence of consistent condom use (CCU) during HAI and associated factors. Methods: Analysis of cross-sectional data from nationwide biological and behavioural survey, conducted at 73 randomly selected domains with sample size of 27,000 in India. Results: A total of 25,932 FSWs were included in the analysis, after excluding 1075 (3.9%) FSWs for which the data were incomplete. The prevalence of HAI was 29.9% (95% CI, 29.3, 30.4); The CCU during HAI in the last one month was 58.9%. Younger age at the start of sex work, use of mobile phone/internet for soliciting client, home as a place of sex work, consumption of alcohol/drug, and physical violence against FSWs were associated with higher odds of HAI. Frequent contact with outreach workers, awareness of sexually transmitted infection, and older age at the start of sex work was associated with CCU. Conclusion: Prevalence of HAI was high among FSW in India. The national program could target those factors that reduce the odds of HAI and/or promote CCU. © The Author(s) 2023.
Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India
(Indian Council of Medical Research, 2017) Arvind Pandey; Neeraj Dhingra; Pradeep Kumar; Damodar Sahu; D.C.S. Reddy; Padum Narayan; Yujwal Raj; Bhavna Sangal; Nalini Chandra; Saritha Nair; Jitenkumar Singh; Laxmikant Chavan; Deepika Joshi Srivastava; Ugra Mohan Jha; Vinita Verma; Shashi Kant; Madhulekha Bhattacharya; Pushpanjali Swain; Partha Haldar; Lucky Singh; Taoufik Bakkali; John Stover; Savina Ammassari
Background & objectives: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India’s response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. Methods: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. Results: India’s national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. Interpretation & conclusions: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic. © 2017, Indian Council of Medical Research. All rights reserved.