Long-Term Impact of Aerosols and Climate Variability on Rice Yields across Agroclimatic Zones in India

Abstract

The need for a robust food security framework in India requires assessing the effects of air quality and weather on crop yields, while adopting practices such as choosing suitable varieties, adjusting planting schedules, and improving irrigation to reduce adverse impacts. In this study, a long-term assessment of the impact of weather, Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), soil moisture (SM), and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) on historical rice production was conducted across various Agroclimatic Zones in India from 1998 to 2019. A statistical model was developed for this purpose, achieving an exceptional accuracy of 94.9% for rice crop during the Kharif season in India. The findings indicate that the highest negative impacts of rainfall, FAPAR, and AOD on rice production were observed in the EPH region. However, the minimum and maximum temperatures had the most adverse effects in the MGP and GPH regions. Rainfall exhibited an almost negligible impact on rice yield during the studied period. Relative humidity (RH), FAPAR, and SM were generally favorable for rice yield across most of Agroclimatic Zones during the historical period. India experienced an average annual decline in rice yields of − 4.09%, − 1.11%, − 0.11%, and − 0.73% due to adverse fluctuations in maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, and aerosol levels, respectively. In contrast, RH, FAPAR, and SM contributed to yield increases of 0.56%, 0.08%, and 1.17% per year, respectively. Overall, the model indicates that Indian rice production declined by an average of − 3.93% annually between 1998 and 2019, due to the combined impact of weather/FAPAR/SM/AOD fluctuations. The combined effects of these factors led to an average annual decline in rice production in the states of Odisha, Maharashtra, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh. The limitation of this study is the absence of future projections for AOD, which are essential to evaluate its potential impacts across diverse agroclimatic zones. © King Abdulaziz University and Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.