Excess Mortality Risk Due to Heat Stress in Different Climatic Zones of India

Abstract

India is at a high risk of heat stress-induced health impacts and economic losses owing to its tropical climate, high population density, and inadequate adaptive planning. The health impacts of heat stress across climate zones in India have not been adequately explored. Here, we examine and report the vulnerability to heat stress in India using 42 years (1979-2020) of meteorological data from ERA-5 and developed climate-zone-specific percentile-based human comfort class thresholds. We found that the heat stress is usually 1-4 °C higher on heatwave (HW) days than on nonheatwave (NHW) days. However, the stress on NHW days remains considerable and cannot be neglected. We then showed the association of a newly formulated India heat index (IHI) with daily all-cause mortality in three cities - Delhi (semiarid), Varanasi (humid subtropical), and Chennai (tropical wet and dry), using a semiparametric quasi-Poisson regression model, adjusted for nonlinear confounding effects of time and PM2.5. The all-cause mortality risk was enhanced by 8.1% (95% confidence interval, CI: 6.0-10.3), 5.9% (4.6-7.2), and 8.0% (1.7-14.2) during “sweltering” days in Varanasi, Delhi, and Chennai, respectively, relative to “comfortable” days. Across four age groups, the impact was more severe in Varanasi (ranging from a 3.2 to 7.5% increase in mortality risk for a unit rise in IHI) than in Delhi (2.6-4.2% higher risk) and Chennai (0.9-5.7% higher risk). We observed a 3-6 days lag effect of heat stress on mortality in these cities. Our results reveal heterogeneity in heat stress impact across diverse climate zones in India and call for developing an early warning system keeping in mind these regional variations. © 2023 American Chemical Society