Anomalous seismic activity and long-range earthquake prediction in Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

Anomalous seismic activity associated with major earthquakes in the Himalayas have been studied in an area bounded by 30.8° - 33.2°N and 77.4° - 79.4°E using seismicity data from 1959-1991. The seismicity has been found to fluctuate in two characteristic phases from 1959 to 1975, and 1976 to 1991 preceding major earthquakes. It is predicted that a shallow focus significant earthquake in the magnitude range 7-7.4 may occur at the end of 1996 in the area. The probable site of epicenter is estimated to be located in an area bounded by 31.4° - 32°N and 78.3° - 78.8°E falling in the southern half part of the north-south trending preparatory area.