Computer Simulation of Long-Term Vegetation Status in Landslide-Prone Areas in the Himalayan Region

Abstract

The long-term vegetation pattern in landslide-prone regions is studied using simulation and modeling. A simulator is developed to study the impact of landslides on vegetation status. The first part of the model deals with simulation of the effects of rainfall, earthquakes, and deforestation in the creation of landslides and the concomitant damage to vegetation. The second part is a deterministic model of vegetation regeneration. The authors assume that the interarrival time of earthquakes, the intensity of these earthquakes, and rainfall intensity are stochastic in nature and that the earthquake frequency is independent of earthquake intensity. An estimate is made of the damage to vegetation due to the occurrence of landslides under the combined influence of earthquakes, rainfall, and deforestation. After the ecosystem parameters get modified due to the damage, the vegetation status is recalculated for the annual change according to the vegetation regeneration model. © 2004, Sage Publications. All rights reserved.