Sensitivity Analysis of DSSAT CERESWheat Model for Uttar Pradesh for Variations

Abstract

Plant growth is impacted by variation in atmospheric conditions. The impacts of changes in the climate on the growth and maturation of the plant body may be estimated and assessed using crop simulation models (CSMs). In order to assess the model’s sensitivity to alterations in a variety of climatic parameters, including rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, DSSAT CSM integrated with a wheat model – CERES (crop environment resource synthesis) was used over four growing seasons (2015-2016 to 2018-2019) for Meerut district of Uttar Pradesh state on three different dates of sowing (DOS) 15th Nov (D1), 22nd Nov (D2) and 29th Nov (D3) with a variety HD2967 (V1). The Sensitivity analysis study showed yield variation due to changes in meteorological parameters. The actual maximum temperature increased by 1.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C, and decreased by 1.0 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C for the whole crop season using the environmental modification field to check the impact on crop yield. The observed yield and crop simulation yield results have less percent deviation on 22nd Nov (D2) as compare the results with 15th Nov (D1) and 29th Nov (D3) for study area and the simulated yield increases with successive increase of maximum temperature and decreases by successive decrease of maximum temperature of wheat crop for Meerut district. © 2025 by Apple Academic Press, Inc.