Forecasting extreme precipitation event over Munsiyari (Uttarakhand) using 3DVAR data assimilation in mesoscale model

Abstract

A localized extreme precipitation event occurred over Munsiyari (Uttarakhand, India) on 2nd July 2018 causing flash floods, landslides and damage to the hydropower project. A preliminary study has been carried out by using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with three-dimensional variation data assimilation technique (3DVAR) to examine the feasibility of the model to predict the localized phenomena. Sensitivity experiments were carried out with two different microphysics in the model. Results show that P3 1-category plus double moment cloud water microphysics scheme with 3DVAR in WRF simulates the quantity of precipitation closer to the observed precipitation over Munsiyari. The vertical velocity and relative humidity were also simulated well during 3DVAR data assimilation as compared to without data assimilation over study region. © 2019, Indian Academy of Sciences.