A Bayesian network study of water conflict between Punjab and Haryana

Abstract

Rivers are vital water resource for every State and conflicts around water sharing is a common issue. Water Conflict Management becomes important to study both scientific and policy making aspects. The conflict over the waters of Beas, Ravi and Sutlej began in 1966 when Haryana was carved out of Punjab and the former demanded its share of water. Despite numerous interventions the Sutlej Yamuna Link canal (SYL) remains incomplete and general stalemate prevails. Bayesian Networks (BNs) are data driven tools helping policy makers to predict the foreseeable outcome before taking any further step, for the similar purpose of predicting the type of resolution of water conflict a BN was estimated based on ICOW dataset. BN learnt, were then applied to Punjab scenario. The study shows that there is a greater chance of third-party involvement in military dispute between the stakeholders. There are high chances of occurring bilateral when conflict is of longer duration. Bilateral negotiations are successful in ending water conflicts with a bilateral agreement. If a bilateral is not possible then the challenger is likely to drop the claims. The study further shows that if a bilateral resolution has occurred then the river is of high value to the States. Bilateral negotiation is one of the most probable solutions towards a peaceful negotiation of SYL water sharing conflict. The study concludes that BN models are adequate for predicting the events in a water conflict. © 2020 DAV College. All rights reserved.