Mapping human health risk by geostatistical method: a case study of mercury in drinking groundwater resource of the central ganga alluvial plain, northern India

Abstract

Human health is “at risk” from exposure to sub-lethal elemental occurrences at a local and or regional scale. This is of global concern as good-quality drinking water is a basic need for our wellbeing. In the present study, the “probability kriging,” a geostatistical method that has been used to predict the risk magnitude of the areas where the probability of dissolved mercury concentration (dHg) is higher than the World Health Organization (WHO) permissible limit. The method was applied to geochemical data of dHg concentration in 100 drinking groundwater samples of Lucknow monitoring area (1222 km2) located within the Ganga Alluvial Plain, India. Threefold (high to extreme risk) and twofold (moderate risk) higher dHg concentration values than the WHO permissible limit were observed in all of the groundwater samples. The generated prediction map using the probability kriging method shows that the probability of exceedance of dHg is the highest in the northwestern part of the Lucknow monitoring area due to anthropogenic interferences. The hotspots with high to very high probability are potentially alarming in the urban sector where 32.4% of the total population is residing in 6.8% of the total area. Interpolation of local estimates results in an easily readable and communicable human health risk map. It may help to consider substantial remediation measures for managing drinking water resources of the Ganga Alluvial Plain, which is among the anthropogenic mercury emission–dominated regions of the world. © 2019, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.