Assessing climate-driven phenological responses of tomato crops under future climate change trajectories: A Central India perspective

Abstract

Climate change poses a serious challenge to global agriculture, particularly by altering crop phenology and yield dynamics. This study investigates the phenological responses of tomato crops to anticipated climate scenarios by employing a Crop Simulation model, Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT). Simulations were conducted for Central India under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5) across three temporal windows: near-century (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069), and far-century (2070–2099). Historical climate data and calibrated genetic coefficients were used to project shifts in flowering and fruiting stages under varying climate conditions. The study assessed the impacts of projected changes in temperature (T), solar radiation (Srad), and precipitation (PPT) patterns on phenological development. Climate input datasets were sourced from IMD, IPCC, and six CMIP6- Global Climate Models. Results revealed a distinct phenological advancement, characterised by a reduction in days to flowering and fruiting, along with a concurrent decline in tomato yield (Ton/ha) across all future timeframes. Increased growing season temperatures and marginal reductions in Srad were observed to accelerate crop development, while altered rainfall patterns influenced spatial variability in production. Notably, enhanced evapotranspiration demand driven by warming trends may be partially moderated by decreased radiation levels. Spatial rainfall analysis indicated intensified PPT in central zones, whereas western and northwestern regions may experience monsoonal weakening and prolonged dry spells. Model performance showed robust agreement with observed yields (R = 0.78), with validation metrics—MAE = 5.9, RMSE = 6.93, and Bias = -1.43—demonstrating consistent predictive accuracy with slight underestimation. The Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE = 0.59) further affirms the model's applicability under future climate conditions. This research underscores the utility of process-based models in decoding climate–phenology–yield relationships and provides critical insights to inform climate-resilient agricultural strategies for sustainable tomato production in vulnerable agro-ecological regions. © 2025