Publication: Assessment of climate change of different meteorological state variables during Indian summer monsoon season
Loading...
Date
2022
Journal Title
Journal of Earth System Science
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer
Abstract
Long-term assessment of basic meteorological field variability is an important factor that influences the Indian summer monsoon and consequently affects the socio-economic aspects of India. In this study, the spatial and temporal variation of meteorological parameters during summer monsoon season using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets for the period of 70�years (1948�2017) has been analyzed in climatology, early-late phase and multidecadal epochs over India and its regions. Statistical techniques such as the standardized anomaly index of surface temperature, rainfall and zonal and meridional wind (at 850 and 200�hPa) and temporal analysis of Mann�Kendall trend test over six selected regions, viz., North India (NI), Central India (CI), Southern India (SI), Arabian Sea (AS), Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) reveal higher variability during summer monsoon season from 1948 to 2017. The significant spatial changes in the value of standard deviation and coefficient of variation confirm the early-late phase and multidecadal modulation of the seasonal variability of selected climatic parameters. The results indicate that the escalation in the surface temperature multidecadal variability and trend has dominating characteristics over NI, CI and SI regions at an alarming range (0.5�1.0�C). The major hotspots of increasing early-late phase and multidecadal variability and average precipitation have been found over BoB, EIO and SI (~1�3.5 mm/day). The decreasing changes in the mean rainfall pattern and associated variability is strongly linked with increasing surface warming and significant reduction in the strength of surface zonal wind over BoB, IO, SI and CI region which cause the weakening of important atmospheric circulations such as the role of Somali jet and strong low-level jet (LLJ) during Indian summer monsoon season. Also, the meridional wind at the surface and upper level has shown significant enhancement over AS and EIO. The recent decadal anomaly (2008�2017) is really a matter of concern as precipitation and wind circulation anomaly at 850 and 200�hPa have shown decreasing trends over all the regions. In recent years, the variation in meteorological parameters and distribution are asymmetrical during summer monsoon season in changing climate. � 2022, Indian Academy of Sciences.
Description
Keywords
Mann�Kendall test, Meteorological parameters, monsoon variability, NCEP/NCAR